A new way to obsess over story ratings

JuanSeiszFitzHall

yet another
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This is for anyone who thinks long and hard about story ratings (which may depend on whether ‘long’ and ‘hard’ are prominent in the stories, but that’s a different topic). You don’t have to admit that you think this way, you can just read and move on. If all goes well, you might discover that ratings deserve less of your attention.

During a story’s early going, up to maybe 50 votes, here’s a point system that can tell you what’s possible with later votes. I’ll call the key data Poyntz, so it’s always clear when they’re being mentioned. In a story with 23 votes, a perfect score of all 5*s would give the story 115 Poyntz (23 x 5), and the worst possible score would be 23 Poyntz (23 x 1). I don’t know if the latter happens, even in Loving Wives.

To find the Poyntz in a rating between the two extremes, multiply the rating by the number of votes. Because Literotica ratings are rounded to two digits to the right of the decimal point, the multiplication may not give you a whole number. A rating of 4.22 on 23 votes would multiply to 97.06. With such a small number of votes, however, you can round this down to 97 Poyntz. To check your work, divide 97 by 23. The rating is thus shown in more detail, as 4.21739(etc.). This is rounded up to 4.22 in the rating, so let the expanded number serve as a reality check: This story isn’t really, completely, 4.22000.

It’s possible that the author of this story would like the rating to move up to 4.50 or higher, and receive HOT! status. (Possible? Ya think?) The system can show ways for this to happen. 23 is an odd number, so a story with that many votes can’t have a rating of exactly 4.50. With 115 Poyntz at the top (all 5*s), the 4.50 threshold would be slightly more than halfway between the Poyntz for all 4*s, 92 (23 x 4), and 115. That works out to 104. A story with 104 Poyntz on 23 votes would have a rating of 4.52174(etc.), and a Red H.

The author might look at that, and think that their 97-Poynt story doesn’t have far to go to get to the Red H, which appears to be only seven Poyntz higher. But the bar that the story must reach doesn’t stand still. Each new vote raises the bar. The 104 target for 23 votes becomes 108 when the 24th vote is added, because the perfect score rises to 120 and the 4*-average level rises to 96.

A useful, and perhaps depressing, statistic is what I’ll call Poyntz Below Perfect (PBP). Let’s assume that the story has been around long enough for all of the votes to have been reviewed by the site, and found to be legitimate. This 4.22-on-23 story has a PBP of 18, which is what’s left when the story’s 97 Poyntz is subtracted from the perfect 115. If all of the votes are valid, the PBP will never be smaller, and it will almost certainly grow. That’s because any 4* or lower vote will increase the PBP, take the story further from perfect, and add height to the hill that must be climbed to reach Red H.

A way to see this in action is to postulate future votes. If vote 24 is a 5*, the story would get one Poynt closer to the Red H threshold, 102 vs. 108. But even if vote 25 is also a 5*, the story’s 107 Poyntz would still be six below the threshold’s 113. As implied earlier, an even number of votes can get Red H at a rating of 4.50, but an odd number needs to get slightly above. In the case of 25 votes, there are no ratings between 4.48 and 4.52.

Continuing this wish list of future 5*s will show that each new 5* in a streak gets a story half a Poynt closer to Red H. Ten 5*s in a row, therefore, gets it five Poyntz closer. In this case, that would be 147 Poyntz for the story, and 149 for the threshold. Yes, even this great run would leave the story below Red H, with a rating of 4.4545(etc.) on 33 votes.

The harsh reality is shown by the PBP, which is still 18, even with all these new 5*s. One can cut to the chase by noting that 4.50 exists exactly halfway between 4 and 5. If the PBP is 18, the story can get to Red H only if the Poyntz Above Four-Average (yep, that’s PAFA) is 18 or more. For the 4.22-on-23 story, the PAFA is five. The fact is, the earliest that the story in question can get to Red H is with twice as many votes as the PBP. In this case, that’s the 36th vote. And this is only going to happen if all of the thirteen votes after the 23rd are 5*s.

And that’s not just this case. Multiply any story’s PBP by two, and the result is the minimum number of votes it must have to gain HOT! status. And, this being reality, the PBP is going to grow, every time there’s a legitimate vote of 4* or lower. This raises the vote minimum for Red H.

Well, that’s math for ya. Math don’t care, but at least its indifference applies equally to everyone. Someone with a 4.22-on-23 story shouldn’t obsess on the story ever becoming HOT! Yes, if the author’s stories routinely get 100-plus votes, Red H might arrive eventually, but it would take a while. Gratification would be delayed.

Math also tells us that this story has been given at least seven 5*s, and probably more. If one can look at it calmly, 4.22 is a pretty good rating, and the story was enjoyed by several Lit readers (probably including many who didn’t vote). Which is the best thought for the author? ‘Can that story get to Red H?’ Or ‘Job well done, time to write the next one.’

It’s only fair for me to show the stories and ratings of my own obsession:

https://www.literotica.com/stories/memberpage.php?uid=5116173&page=submissions
 
bill-murray.jpg
 
Juan you mad genius!! I had to read the first have twice, math is not my strongest subject, but I'm understanding what you're saying and this seems a simple(ish) way to figure this out. I wish the site would give me/us a breakdown of how many people voted what. Just to add/reduce my ego, but this seems like a way to reverse math it. Or get as close as we can get. I'll have to do the math myself a couple times but this is like the point in my life when I remembered from school how to get square feet applied that to roofing/painting and realized some math is useful.
 
I have to assume writer's block? Based on the word count of OP, and allowing for maths-working time multiplication factor you could have got out at least a story and a half in the 750 word challenge. Let's call that 1.5 MLS (minimum length story). Or 28% of the way through an average length story, at 5.33 MLS. That said, if you take the writing metric of 1,000 words an hour, relying on the fact that the chariot scene in Ben Hur employed 10,000 people for one long working day at 120,000 person-hours, the person-effort to produce the above would equate to 1.5 hrs or 12.5 microHurs
 
I have to assume writer's block? Based on the word count of OP, and allowing for maths-working time multiplication factor you could have got out at least a story and a half in the 750 word challenge. Let's call that 1.5 MLS (minimum length story). Or 28% of the way through an average length story, at 5.33 MLS. That said, if you take the writing metric of 1,000 words an hour, relying on the fact that the chariot scene in Ben Hur employed 10,000 people for one long working day at 120,000 person-hours, the person-effort to produce the above would equate to 1.5 hrs or 12.5 microHurs
Actually, I already have a 750 posted. In the interest of not adding to what may be a tsunami of such posts, site-wide, I'm not going to post any more. (I tremble at how long the March 1 list might be). I appreciate your own math contribution, and am surprised that anything I do requires more than a nanoHur.
 
Yeah, I did something similar for my stats spreadsheet - basically a column of how many 5 votes in a row to get to hot calculation.

The problem I find is this. If a story is already at say 4.4 on 50 votes, then you need 10 votes in a row to get to Hot. But a story might reach 4.4 with 8x5*,1x3* and 1x1*. So you can easily be sitting there watching four,five,six,seven 5 stars come in, thinking your inching your way to hottness (after the story has vanished from the front page probably waiting very very patiently) and then bam the 3* or the 1* that you were always going to get because 4.4 is the natural place your story lives on Literotica. Now you've got the slow climb up again only needing more votes to get there and then the same thing happens again.

And which point its time to get back to writing your next story.
 
And here I thought I was a numbers nerd... I really don't understand why or how I should or could care how many 5 votes each of my stories needs to get "Hot" status. I can't control receiving the votes (unless I have a bot army, I guess, or better, the ability to mind control a bunch of readers) and I can't control what those votes will be. This way lies madness, is all that comes to my mind. But if it helps you through the day, go for it.

And what am I supposed to do for the three 5 votes I need for a story to achieve hotness? Ask to move it to a different Category? Edit it to add more... uh, who knows. More butt sex? Less butt sex?

And I do track my stats. It's fun to see various aspects and changes over time. I even know which ones have beyond statistical error in certain aspects (e.g., a weird outlier in views per vote). But, there ain't shit I can do about it. And I can indeed track individual votes if I see them come in, or it depends on the values to know in bunches. A recent story had a score of 35 with the first 7 votes... so, yeah, all 5s. After that, the 1 bombs and a few other votes came in, which even with a sweep left a few different mathematical possibilities for vote values, including 3s and 4s or 5s and 1s (that the sweep must've considered valid if they're still there, or did the sweep nuke one of the original 5 votes? I've seen that happen...) Which is it? Shrug.

I'm going to write the stories I'm going to write, and largely they seem to have similar statistics - except for when they don't, but those are variances that are going to happen here.
 
And which point its time to get back to writing your next story.
I would prefer to never start down that path in the first place so I don’t have to ‘get back’ to anything. I just keep writing and let the votes fall where they may.
 
Well, that’s math for ya. Math don’t care, but at least its indifference applies equally to everyone. Someone with a 4.22-on-23 story shouldn’t obsess on the story ever becoming HOT! Yes, if the author’s stories routinely get 100-plus votes, Red H might arrive eventually, but it would take a while. Gratification would be delayed.

Math also tells us that this story has been given at least seven 5*s, and probably more.
Five, I think? 18*4 + 5*5 = 97, 97/23 rounds to 4.22.
 
All but 8 of my 52 published stories have the "coveted" Red H.

This is not a brag, merely a statement of fact.

As a relatively new author here, I also have far less views and votes than those of you who have been at it far longer.

So all the Red H tells me is that the audience that has found my stories generally likes them.

Instead of pondering all that math on what it might take to get the rest of them up higher in the ratings, I think I'd rather consider why they DIDN'T get rated high enough to earn a Red H, and what I as a writer could have done to improve them.
 
Juan - You should consider turning this post into a "How To" submission. It's bound to earn you an "E"
I did consider that, when I realized how long the friggin' wall of text is. But I thought it might be taken too seriously if I posted it there. Here, I figured that the smaller, writer-heavy readership would take it with many grains of evaporating Great Salt Lake.
 
I look at the ratings as "At least my story isn't averaging 1.00!" There were some who didn't hated it!

"Look on the brighter side of life!" (from Monty Python's "The Life of Brian.")
 
I've written erotica for a long time and I've come to some conclusions about ratings and comments on my work.

1. A very small percentage of readers actually vote for a story.
2. An even smaller percentage of readers actually leave a comment.
3. Some readers vote a story low because it wasn't their cup of tea or just because they can.
4. I'm happy writing for my own enjoyment and for the readers who seem to like my work. The scores only serve to guide me in what I write.
 
Since we're on this topic...again...just something interesting I noted a few days ago:

When my latest story, Mya Watches, published, it shot up pretty quick in ratings.

It hovered between a 4.8 and 4.9 for around 48 hours.

After that, it dropped down, and is now at a still very respectable 4.69.

What I gathered from this was pretty simple; my loyal readers found it first, and generously rated it high.

Later, other readers came along and, while certainly not trashing it, probably rated it at a 4 or even a 3.

Also, my latest chapter of my long running series, The Jenna Arrangement, has been up almost a month now. It currently sits at a 4.98 rating with 40 votes.

Is it THAT great a story? No. It's not even the best chapter in the series.

Again, what that tells me is the loyal readers of the series, a relatively small group to be sure, are still sticking with it and, because they love the series, rate it high.

Meanwhile, because it was Part 26, it probably got ignored by most other readers and hence not read let alone rated.

So the Red H, while nice, can also be very biased, depending on the story, the author, and the readers who follow.
 
I probably shouldn't make an entire new thread to ask this question, but it's relevant to this topic: I'm newish here. (Did one story years and years ago, four more more recently.) One of my stories published yesterday is labeled "hot". What effect does that have if any, on for example reaching readers? Or is it basically just a badge of pride (and I am, to be fair, kinda happy to see it, whatever it actually means).
 
I probably shouldn't make an entire new thread to ask this question, but it's relevant to this topic: I'm newish here. (Did one story years and years ago, four more more recently.) One of my stories published yesterday is labeled "hot". What effect does that have if any, on for example reaching readers? Or is it basically just a badge of pride (and I am, to be fair, kinda happy to see it, whatever it actually means).


We all like to pretend it doesn't, but the Red H probably does help draw some readership somewhat.

Don't put too much stock in them, BUT no shame in being proud enough readers read and liked your story enough to give it a nice rating.
 
I probably shouldn't make an entire new thread to ask this question, but it's relevant to this topic: I'm newish here. (Did one story years and years ago, four more more recently.) One of my stories published yesterday is labeled "hot". What effect does that have if any, on for example reaching readers? Or is it basically just a badge of pride (and I am, to be fair, kinda happy to see it, whatever it actually means).
It will pull in more views, there's not much doubt about that. It's not just a nice badge, the Red H brings eyes to the story, but how to quantify it, nobody really knows. With one or two stories there's no way to tell, but in a fair sized story/chapter portfolio, one can see patterns and trends that suggests the Red Hs do make a difference.

A higher comment count makes more of a difference, I think. People come to see what the comments are about - if you write a very good story or a very bad one, readers will tell you, and that too can bring eyes to the story. Generally speaking, my higher scored stories have more comments.
 
My take on the original poster and the entire thread is that it's at least half tongue-in-cheek. The half that isn't would be a suitable subject for Jonathan Swift.
 
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