Trump will be impeached
It will go to the Senate, who will shoot it down without blinking
Trump will stay in office
Come election time either Trump will win giving the Rapepublicans 4 years to rebrand their party into something palatable
Or Trump will lose and the Rapebulican party will collapse into petty infighting trying to out douchebag each other to find the next Trump
That sounds about right.
One interesting side note is that because Trump is going with the "so what" defense, the vulnerable Repugnantkin Senators are going to have an election issue if they vote in agreement with this defense, that what Trump did with Ukraine and obstructing the first-hand testimony was perfectly OK.
So, we may see a few of them vote for conviction, but it still won't be enough for the required two-thirds conviction vote.