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For Those Who Might Be Wondering Why We Might Be In Ukraine

Less than 50% of the Russian forces in the western Kharkiv pocket are left there...the Russian 155th, the 217th airborne bde, the 9th rgt, and the 47th division are all gone, moved north. No units from the Ukraine side have moved away. It's unlikely that when the Russians are pushed back, that the ZSU will stop at the border this time. Belgorod is not too far from this border.

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ll74 said:
Already posted.

Nothing is falling
Click to expand...
Notwithstanding the foregoing propaganda:

"Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk have urged residents there to evacuate as troops draw near. The city is one of Ukraine's main defensive strongholds and a key logistics hub in the Donetsk region."
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/n...krovsk-to-evacuate-as-russian-troops-close-in

This happened because Ukraine pulled mechanized forces out of the Donetsk region to attack the lightly defended Kursk region north of the existing line of contact. This effort has created a salient into Russian territory where all forward movement southeast, east, northwest, and north has been surrounded and cut off. This salient is roughly 144 square miles, or an area about the size of the city of Miami, Fla. This effort will be defeated in detail as larger Russian formations are moved into the area. Meanwhile back in the Donetsk region The Russians are making huge gains all along the line of contact.
 
Rightguide said:
Notwithstanding the foregoing propaganda:

"Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk have urged residents there to evacuate as troops draw near. The city is one of Ukraine's main defensive strongholds and a key logistics hub in the Donetsk region."
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/n...krovsk-to-evacuate-as-russian-troops-close-in

This happened because Ukraine pulled mechanized forces out of the Donetsk region to attack the lightly defended Kursk region north of the existing line of contact. This effort has created a salient into Russian territory where all forward movement southeast, east, northwest, and north has been surrounded and cut off. This salient is roughly 144 square miles, or an area about the size of the city of Miami, Fla. This effort will be defeated in detail as larger Russian formations are moved into the area. Meanwhile back in the Donetsk region The Russians are making huge gains all along the line of contact.
Click to expand...
Russia is running scared.

Sorry to burst your bubble

They were completely caught off guard by the Ukranian front. To be fair, everyone was..but only one party is impacted by it ...and that's Russia
 
Rightguide said:
Notwithstanding the foregoing propaganda:

"Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk have urged residents there to evacuate as troops draw near. The city is one of Ukraine's main defensive strongholds and a key logistics hub in the Donetsk region."
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/n...krovsk-to-evacuate-as-russian-troops-close-in

This happened because Ukraine pulled mechanized forces out of the Donetsk region to attack the lightly defended Kursk region north of the existing line of contact. This effort has created a salient into Russian territory where all forward movement southeast, east, northwest, and north has been surrounded and cut off. This salient is roughly 144 square miles, or an area about the size of the city of Miami, Fla. This effort will be defeated in detail as larger Russian formations are moved into the area. Meanwhile back in the Donetsk region The Russians are making huge gains all along the line of contact.
Click to expand...

The Russians aren't "making huge gains.....". They're in a meatgrinder and they're being minced. Stuck for time But I'm going to come back to this tonight and get into it in way more detail, because this is a Russian talking point that they're pushing to try and convince western countries to reduce support for Ukraine, and that "Ukraine is losing." Nothing could be further from the truth.
 
Well, it happened. 600k. My money is on 700k by sometime in November, and 750k for Christmas.

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Basically, everything south of that river is Ukrainian now, all that's needed is the cleanup.....

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ChloeTzang said:
The Russians aren't "making huge gains.....". They're in a meatgrinder and they're being minced. Stuck for time But I'm going to come back to this tonight and get into it in way more detail, because this is a Russian talking point that they're pushing to try and convince western countries to reduce support for Ukraine, and that "Ukraine is losing." Nothing could be further from the truth.
Click to expand...

​

Pokrovsk is about to fall. The war has been a meatgrinder since day one. The Russians have more meat to grind than do the Ukrainians. It's that simple and a look at Russian history going back centuries shows they have no qualms about the sacrifice of life in defense of what they decide is a security threat. You can pretend the Ukrainians have not taken catastrophic casualties all you want but the facts on the ground say different and you aren't going to find those facts in the U.S. Democrat-controlled media. You have to go to independent sources abroad to get to the truth. Even the ISW here in the US, a highly esteemed think tank that studies war, cannot be trusted. An example of this I found today on their website. They are supposed to be a neutral source but here in their own words they say the following:

"ISW will continue to refrain from commenting on Ukrainian operational intent in Kursk Oblast or elsewhere in the theater beyond what Ukrainian officials themselves have said in order to protect Ukrainian operational security,"

Then they say: "Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update."

The disclaimer shows they aren't going to report the whole story even if it does come from unclassified and media sources if it's detrimental to "Ukrainian operational security."

Here's a clip from the BBC that begins with Pokrovsk:


Military Summary Channel assessment 22 hours ago:

 
Rightguide said:
Pokrovsk is about to fall. The war has been a meatgrinder since day one. The Russians have more meat to grind than do the Ukrainians. It's that simple and a look at Russian history going back centuries shows they have no qualms about the sacrifice of life in defense of what they decide is a security threat. You can pretend the Ukrainians have not taken catastrophic casualties all you want but the facts on the ground say different and you aren't going to find those facts in the U.S. Democrat-controlled media. You have to go to independent sources abroad to get to the truth.
Click to expand...

Here's a good summary of the situation around Pokrovsk. Yes, the Russians are pushing hard - it's the same situation on the ground the ZSU has faced for the last 2 years and counting. Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, Toretsk, New York, Vovchansk, Kupiansk… The situation on the frontlines there is tough, and the ZSU does need to do something here - Pokrovsk and Selydove are strategic and the Russians are only 10kms from Pokrovsk.

Pokrovsk-Avdiivka

Russia has found a winning formula in this sector and they intend to keep exploiting it. Before Ocheretyne the advance was characterized by waves grinding down the Ukrainian defenses and forcing them to pull back to better defenses. The Russian attacks were contained, if relentless, and the Ukrainian withdrawals were organized.

https://ci3.googleusercontent.com/meips/ADKq_NbWtGeIDfJQ-T73-MkL404wA1pDDa_VQh8HPNxeO8PcGLnAiqMHHjfUcyYvYCaxOZgC2tNAvguKba3Gl2-_X-8aeIbl6EL25KlYk7XIvQVWyK8jQWA5sbn80UzxVD0OnCxRBs5xqdAPba4XIVadiOJkDQx0RcB62c35WElkVVUXUsJo38HS1t1WV4l2_QzOo4nIhfU_qeNbY02fbLcjCx9ffAHr727_i1N-ZA_zk35ipMcqgrsyG_M8Of7tjbVxIOQKNfdN1nfDtAJfAiypSqk8DXPOFYESpt3FTYLEpr6wO9N24bt5uHedDg=s0-d-e1-ft#https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1438,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe2f9a87e-1168-4fea-8cd7-ad7587ec21cd_719x762.jpeg
The approximate location of Ukrainian brigades and supporting units. When a bulge occurs, the frontage that needs to be defended increases and threatens the flanks of adjacent units.

With the breakthrough at Ocheretyne the level of containment in the north is much lower. Russian attacks find gaps that weren’t covered, or were weakly covered, without any reserves to react to breakthroughs. Once a gap is discovered, however small, Russian troops move through it and outflank neighboring positions. This forces more withdrawals to new defensive lines that also have some gap or weakness that the Russians eventually find and the cycle is continued.

It is notable that these Russian advances are happening in just one portion of the battlefield. Despite pressures from its front and left flank, the 59th Brigade is holding firm at Pervomaiske and Nevelske. Despite massive frontal attacks pushing them back from Umanske, the 25th Brigade is still holding on to the edge of Yasnobrodivka, and that for 2 1/2 months now. The 47th holds on to their front in an organized manner but are constantly threatened by penetration to their north which forces them back on their left flank. Their position in the line has been taken over by the 68th Jaeger Brigade because the 47th has been shifted to the center of the Russian advance to try and slow it down, even if it cannot be stopped.

Where the penetration repeatedly shows up is in front of the 31st Brigade. We know from their own soldiers that there are issues with their leadership and it appears as if they cannot establish a legitimate defensive line with mutually supporting positions that can observe and fire on any avenue of approach that leads to their position. And when things start to go bad, they have no reserve force and seemingly no plan to react to enemy actions. Subordinate units had to plan their own breakthrough and withdrawal when gaps were penetrated and forward units were surrounded, and they needed the help of the 47th Brigade to save the men.

There are two other brigades in the area. The 151st (which we’re supporting with our latest collection) is in the vicinity of Vesele, near the leading edge of the Russian advance. Little has been heard about the details of their fighting. And there’s the 110th that was accused of being responsible for the breakthrough of Ocheretyne, a charge which it denies. They have maintained a controlled withdrawal under pressure on the northern flank of this advance. But for the last two months, the Russian advance has followed the 31st Brigade like a heat seeking missile.

This is not an effort to place the entire blame on the 31st. Even units that have controlled withdrawals aren’t maximizing the potential of their defensive positions. There are far too many examples of units that do not establish effective defensive positions, or require that their soldiers continually improve their fighting positions. There are units that are at 50% strength and yet new brigades are being created. There are ammunition shortages of anti-tank weapons and mortar ammo. And in the 31st brigade, the reaction of the battalion and company level officers and their men to save their trapped soldiers in the face of inaction of their brigade level officers is nothing less than heroic. But the 31st brigade’s shortcomings can all be traced back to two concepts: leadership and accountability.

You can tell which brigades have it and which do not based on their performances over the years. The brigades that are performing well have developed systems, procedures and a culture that is successful in this environment. The fact that not all brigades not established the same systems and procedures is a fault of the Ukrainian army’s senior leadership. For all the things that they do well, this is a failure and should be a higher priority. Simply doing the basics of combat better can increase the combat power of the army significantly.

Source: https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/dons-weekly-19-august-2024-part-2 (the above is an excerpt)

And a very good writeup on just what some of the failures are......
https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/dons-weekly-19-august-2024-part-4
 
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Turkish-built Cobra II Medical Evacuation Vehicle with the Ukrainian army in Kursk Oblast. Several were seen in the service of the Ukrainian Army back in May 2023. Turkey has been either sending or selling equipment to Ukraine consistently since the war started, but without any big publicity.

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Kursk And Pokrovsk: Dueling Campaigns - another update from Andrew Tanner​

While Ukraine's incursion into Kursk continues to gain ground, Moscow's most successful summer effort is moving relatively quickly, for an orc operation. Is Syrskyi plotting another surprise? Is Pokrovsk a trap for the orcs?
 
Rightguide said:
"ISW will continue to refrain from commenting on Ukrainian operational intent in Kursk Oblast or elsewhere in the theater beyond what Ukrainian officials themselves have said in order to protect Ukrainian operational security,"
...
The disclaimer shows they aren't going to report the whole story even if it does come from unclassified and media sources if it's detrimental to "Ukrainian operational security."
Click to expand...
What a silly thing to fixate on. ISW also says "We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media."
That disclaimer shows they aren't going to report the whole story even if it does come from unclassified and media sources if it's detrimental to Russia.
 
Just throwing this in here where it actually belongs


rotflmao. Let's not even pretend it was Biden. We all know it's not. It's whoever is running the US, and with Biden wandering around on vacation, and Harris swaning around campaigning, it's whoever the fuck has been fucking the USA over for the last 3.5 years, but let's not waste time pretending it was Biden. He barely knows what day it is these days. Anyhow, let's call it the Biden Admministration because he's still the puppet, and it's pretty blatant at this point, but whatever.

Funding going to Ukraine? My ass. The Biden Administration has about 16 billion left to use on Ukraine (most of the 61 billion was NOT for Ukraine!!!)
11 billion from the 61 billion was actually FOR Ukraine.
4 billion has been held over from 2023 because it WASN'T SPENT
2 billion "found"

The Biden Administration has actually spent about 1 billion in the last few months...
in August they spent 125 million.....

IF the Biden Administration keeps on track with current declining aid packages the current aid will last.....about 10 years (128 months) !!!

SPEND THE FUCKING MONEY that was budgeted for Ukraine!!!! The Biden Administrations is actively BLOCKING aid authorized by the American people’s representatives for Ukraine. Now, let's all remember that Trump was impeached for "delaying aid"!!!! Keep in mind that the lend lease act of 2022 that Cornyn (R-TX) got passed and Biden signed approved $33+ billion for weapons,,, and Biden refused to use it even when Ukraine was begging for it. And now Ukraine were and still are ok with paying back lend lease as well!!!

There is NOTHING to thank the Biden Administration for whatsoever. They kicked off this war by greenlighting Putin. They expected Ukraine to fall right away and offered Zelensky a ride out. They don't want Ukraine to win, and I think that's more than obvious now. The early intel leak when the orcs were N of Kyiv was a dead giveaway. The US model had predicted Russia would take all of the Eastern Ukraine up to the Dnipro River, then there'd be a ceasefire. Ukraine surprised them, and everything since then has been aimed at appearing to support Ukraine while ensuring Ukraine doesn't win. They've drip fed and slow walked aid the entire time. We have 3,500 M1 tanks sitting in the desert in storage and they send 30 or 40 odd. We have 2000 Bradley's sitting in the desert and they sent a couple of hundred. We have 100's of old F16's and they sent not one, and had slow walked pilot training and knee-capped Sweden sending Gripen's (engine licensing).

The Biden Administration kneecapped Polish Mig-29's going to Ukraine early on. We have literally hundreds of old 155mm howitzers sitting in storage and not one has been refurbished to send to Ukraine. The ZSU is crying out for IFV's, we have surplus Strykers out the ying yang, and what do we send. A couple of hundred. We have A10's we are getting rid of, and what do we send to Ukraine. Fucking nada. And spare me the bullshit about survivability. The ZSU has proved they know what they're doing and they can take losses to slaughter Russians. Nope, there is NOTHING to thank the Biden Administration for, and Zelensky and Ukraine KNOW they are being played now. It's obvious enough that everyone realizes it.

The Biden Administration knee-capped Ukraine and instigate the fall of Avdiivka by engineering the cutoff of 155mm ammo supply, a deliberate and artificial constraint designed to pressure the GOP on a US domestic political issue when there was billions of dollars of drawdown authority left. The Biden Administration deliberately killed thousands of Ukrainian soldiers to try and leverage an advantage in domestic US politics. The Biden Administration has 16 BILLION in funding available that has been approved that it has not, is not, and very visibly WILL NOT be used to aid Ukraine.

Why in the fuck not? I think with the Kursk offensive, we have just had that demonstrated to us in spades. The Biden Administration has leaked Ukrainian plans to the Russians. They have forbidden Ukrainian moves in the past. They have actively worked to limit what Ukraine does and how they can use US - and European - supplied weapons, and CONTINUE to do so. The US was very deliberately NOT advised of the Kursk offensive, and operational security was kept tighter than a nun's ass. Because if the US had known, Russian would have known. What does THAT say about the Biden Administration? And the US military for that matter.

No, this whole Kursk offensive has the Biden Administration shitting bricks, because it's outside the game plan and Ukraine is engineering a Ukrainian victory DESPITE the best efforts of the USA to leverage Ukraine into accepting a permanent loss of territory to Russia, a a ceasefire design to preserve Putin.
 
Consistently well over 1000 Russians taken out daily for weeks now. THAT is above the Russian ability to provide replacements, which is around 30k per month. Russian logistics is taking a hit too, as is artillery, which is being degraded daily.

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Russian authorities have closed airports in two cities in Russia’s Far North amid fears of further Ukrainian drone strikes. All flights were cancelled and the airspace restricted over Murmansk, which hosts a military airbase, and Apatity. Videos show a drone that reportedly fly over Vysokii, a small town located next to the strategically important Olenya air base. The UAV is flying low and is met by massive air defence fire. Ultimately, it is hit and explodes in the air. The governor of Murmansk Wednesday afternoon informed about the attacks. “On the territory of Murmansk Oblast air threat from drones has been detected,” Andrei Chibis writes on his Telegram channel. “All security measures are being taken. I call on all northerners to be attentive and report on 112 about suspicious situations,” he adds.

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Lights out, Moscow. Coming soon.....Russian infrastructure is slowly deteriorating as sanctions bite. Some of what they need can always get through, but only some, and it's not enough......

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The tanks on the ground go BOOM BOOM BOOM....BOOM BOOM BOOM...BOOM BOOM BOOM

The Proletarsk oil depot has now been burning for four days straight after being hit with a Ukrainian drone attack. 74 tanks of over 5000 tons each, equivalent to about 430 million liters of oil, many of which are now burning. If you wanted to know what Dante's Hell is like, here it is. Live. The smoke plume reaches out over 100 kms. Smoke from the burning oil depot has already reached Rostov-on-Don – the sky over the city has darkened. The distance from Rostov to Proletarsk is 165 km. of the 74 fuel tanks. 14 are destroyed, 4 are partially damaged, with 16 remaining intact for now. The condition of another 44 tanks remains unknown as satellite imagery cannot capture them due to thick smoke. However, the fire is spreading uncontrollably. Two tanks in the easternmost section are on fire, almost all of the next over, and the wind is blowing west pushing the fire into the remaining tanks. It'll probably burn until everything is gone. 600 firefighters are involved but are not making any impact on the fire.

$200,000,000 worth of oil going up in flames, not to mention the depot. The oil pipeline may also now be on fire.

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