No post-shooting poll boost for the felon

RoryN

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Donald Trump Does Not Get Post-Shooting Poll Boost

Donald Trump has not received a poll boost in the first presidential election survey conducted since the failed assassination attempt on Saturday.

The poll, conducted by Morning Consult of 2,045 registered voters on Monday, reveals that Trump is leading Joe Biden by just one percentage point on 46 percent, compared to the president's 45 percent. The poll has a margin of error of +/- two percentage points.

The latest poll, where Biden has narrowed the lead, will therefore come as a surprise to the many analysts who predicted that Trump would see a surge in the polls, having survived the assassination attempt. One analyst predicted it would be a unifying moment for the nation which would propel him to "total victory in November".

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-no-poll-boost-after-assassination-attempt-us-election-1925680
 
Donald Trump Does Not Get Post-Shooting Poll Boost

Donald Trump has not received a poll boost in the first presidential election survey conducted since the failed assassination attempt on Saturday.

The poll, conducted by Morning Consult of 2,045 registered voters on Monday, reveals that Trump is leading Joe Biden by just one percentage point on 46 percent, compared to the president's 45 percent. The poll has a margin of error of +/- two percentage points.

The latest poll, where Biden has narrowed the lead, will therefore come as a surprise to the many analysts who predicted that Trump would see a surge in the polls, having survived the assassination attempt. One analyst predicted it would be a unifying moment for the nation which would propel him to "total victory in November".

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-no-poll-boost-after-assassination-attempt-us-election-1925680
I think this is premature, one way or the other. It always takes a while before a significant event to register with the general population. I know there are brief spikes after a particular debate performance, announcement, or significant speech like a State of the Union, but they rarely last. How many times has Trump been "done", say after the pussy-grabbing comment, or received a pity bump after a legal judgment? I think the JD Vance selection will have more impact on actual voting.
 
I think I agree any impact on undecided voters and on turnout - because these are the only variables that truly matter if the attempt can be said to have an impact - are being overstated.
The concerns this speaks to are essentially about law and order, and polarization/ unity.
If over the next three and half months, Trump can still offer nothing more on these issues than to say everyone should unite behind him - the same thing he’s been saying all along - it’s difficult to see how what happened will change minds or influence decisions to vote when there will be so much else happening.
 
I believe the result of that initial poll will be ephemeral. Objectively, one senses that Trump’s poll numbers will significantly rise after the assassination attempt coupled with a successful RNC convention. The following is a posting on “X” by a stepfanie tyler. I’m sure that her sentiments expressed are echoed by millions of independent voters:

“graduated in 2012 with a degree in Women's Studies
cried in 2016 when Trump got elected
lost touch with the Dems somewhere around MeToo
discovered entrepreneurship
updated my voter registration in 2018 but didn't tell anyone
told myself i was a 'single-issue-voting Centrist'
the last 6-12 months i'd believed i was going to abstain from voting in the upcoming election because the options are equally terrible

but watching Trump survive an assassination attempt and act like a total fucking savage just shifted me into some strange, patriotic gear that my fancy-feminism-white-men-bad infected brain never showed me

like, the dude took a bullet and stood up with blood dripping down his face, and rallied a fucking crowd while fist pumping, yelling "FIGHT!"
sorry, but i'm voting for that.
and saying it out loud feels so freeing

(2012 stepfanie would be so pissed but that's okay because 2012 stepfanie didn't know shit)
feels so good to be out of the closet”
 
the last 6-12 months i'd believed i was going to abstain from voting in the upcoming election because the options are equally terrible
Anyone who believed that was just looking for an excuse to vote for Trump anyway.
 
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