Russia after Putin?

[pecksniff]

Putin can't last forever, and so far as I can tell he does not represent anything you could characterize as a political movement, something that could outlast him. When he goes, what happens to Russia?

 

[Sean Renaud]

I'll double check my notes but I think Rasputin is discovered alive.

 

[Rightguide]

Putin can't last forever, and so far as I can tell he does not represent anything you could characterize as a political movement, something that could outlast him. When he goes, what happens to Russia?

He's been in office since 1999 and his present run expires in 2036. So there you have it. Take that and note his opposition has a habit of dying early.

 

[ll74]

Putin can't last forever, and so far as I can tell he does not represent anything you could characterize as a political movement, something that could outlast him. When he goes, what happens to Russia?

He's an autocrat....he'll be around as long as he wants to be.

After that, perhaps the large portions of it might form their own independent countries like the states had earlier...perhaps not.

I just hope the people come out the other side with a democracy worth something

 

[Chernosoth]

Russia has always been a dictatorship since the beginning of Russian history, but with the same rhythm of most nations. The next dictator may hold less power, with more held by a junta. Later it becomes more democratic, then a clusterfuck, and back to the Putin level of dictatorship.

 

[Rightguide]

Russia has always been a dictatorship since the beginning of Russian history, but with the same rhythm of most nations. The next dictator may hold less power, with more held by a junta. Later it becomes more democratic, then a clusterfuck, and back to the Putin level of dictatorship.

Yes, their Viking DNA heretofore resistant to the evolution of civilization seems to favor Kings and Chieftain type leadership.

 

[colddiesel]

Putin can't last forever.

69 and a fitness freak! Don't hold your breath.

 

[pecksniff]

69 and a fitness freak! Don't hold your breath.

He is not the only person in Russia who has access to poison.

 

[LupusDei]

Putin can't last forever, and so far as I can tell he does not represent anything you could characterize as a political movement, something that could outlast him. When he goes, what happens to Russia?

It's a big unknown, and potentially a rather scary to bout. See, Putin, with all his shortcomings and mob boss ruling style represent in part the sane (well, until recently, perhaps) and rational side of Russian nazism. There are personalities worse. The most odious ones are of course clowns unlikely to outlive the autocrat himself (unless... well, there's reasons the guy in the Kremlin is a paranoid, he has to be), but there's plenty of groups with rather strange take on reality, among others. Even the nominally liberal democratic exiles are chauvinistic to rather cringeworthy degree more often than not.

He's been in office since 1999 and his present run expires in 2036. So there you have it. Take that and note his opposition has a habit of dying early.

Well, his opportunity to stay in power currently is formalized through 2036. He has formal elections, if I'm not mistaken, 2024 and 2030 -- six year terms constitutionally limited to two, but by the new constitution, thus the previous terms, curiously including current, somehow doesn't count. He's maintaining such appearances, increasingly cynically, but still trying to insist on a fleeting minimum standard of tailored legality. Like he traded seats with Dmitry Medvedev for a single presidential term that also seen president suddenly reduced to narrowly representative and Prime Minister (Putin) holding the real power (like, say, Germany. It was swiftly reverted back. (All that for the previous constitution limited presidential terms to two in a row, but not explicitly forbidding running again after a pause

While we of course can't reasonably hope either of those upcoming elections would be free or fair... the Soviet standard of 90% wins (with press releases prepared the previous day) is ridiculous... Putin may be forced to 60% win with would be hurtful enough. More importantly, he may decide to retire in either (while trying to retain shadow power, of course), but such scenario is greatly diminished after what happened in Kazakhstan.

He's an autocrat....he'll be around as long as he wants to be.

After that, perhaps the large portions of it might form their own independent countries like the states had earlier...perhaps not.

I just hope the people come out the other side with a democracy worth something

There might be another attempt at that.

But since times before Great Novgorod invited Rurik, Russia had been democratic for about a month in 1917 (that ended in bloodshed after the bolshevik putsch) and somewhat disputed, but the anarchy period between 1991 and, well, it somehow sizzled off, definitely ending by Putin sizing power in what amounted to court coup from by that time constantly drunk Yeltsin, might be described as at least a more or less honest early attempt at building democracy.

And that's all the experience, on the ground so to say, so it would be a rather radical departure for history. Not that unlikely in the today's globalized world, but unfortunately that may change. The current situation is, most seriously, a nudge away from that.

There's basically two plausible more or less peaceful scenarios.

One, the designated successor happen to either be a human with conscience living in disguise or makes a critical miscalculation and decides more real democracy is welcome. Then, of course, there's overwhelming chance the next strongman autocrat wins that sole free election (unsurprisingly, that's how such come to power much frequently around the world), or the next. And yes, that's basically what happened with Soviet Union through the nineties. (Although the economic collapse played only secondary role, and in my opinion is a very unlikely trigger on itself, despite the West's ongoing delusions.)

The other is trough a popular revolution. There's a reason Putin is afraid of a "color revolution" more than anything. The time window that particular phenomenon was feasible may be closing though. There haven't been a new success stories in a while, rather a string of bothered or butchered attempts. The power of communication is slipping back from "people" to regimes increasingly, not by small part by autocracy (or wannabes) learning how to hijack and poison the public discourse (what then justifies crackdown even by nominally democratic regimes, making autocracy job significantly easier and easier to justify). At the same time, willingness to extend real support to revolutionaries is fading, while autocrats increasingly understand they can only survive by supporting each other.

The third way would be total collapse and another period of anarchy and possibly a civil war of some sort. That's understandably risky proposition in a huge low population country with nuclear weapons. I don't know what might cause it as a trigger though. However, Russians are taught to keep their political views close to themselves in proposition that government is an evil to endure. That makes the true pressure under the lid impossible to measure, but as any pressure vessel without a viable drain it can become explosive.

Fourth, the most reliable predictor to regime or dynasty change in Russia is a lost war. No, it never acts directly on a result, there's usually a delay, and the causality is often convoluted if any, but by precedence, it's tremendously risky for Russian rulers to lose a war, even a small or expeditionary one.

Ukraine as Putin's war that destroys his vision of Russia's greatness is tempting, but insanely risky (not to say cruel) proposition. Then, it must be understood, that at least from Ukrainian point of view the war is an ongoing matter, and possibly from the Russian all important subconscioness alike. Putin be seeking way to win it, not start, as the outsider talk goes.

 

[ll74]

If I haven't mentioned it before, I do truly enjoy your perspective on Russia.

It's a big unknown, and potentially a rather scary to bout. See, Putin, with all his shortcomings and mob boss ruling style represent in part the sane (well, until recently, perhaps) and rational side of Russian nazism. There are personalities worse. The most odious ones are of course clowns unlikely to outlive the autocrat himself (unless... well, there's reasons the guy in the Kremlin is a paranoid, he has to be), but there's plenty of groups with rather strange take on reality, among others. Even the nominally liberal democratic exiles are chauvinistic to rather cringeworthy degree more often than not.



Well, his opportunity to stay in power currently is formalized through 2036. He has formal elections, if I'm not mistaken, 2024 and 2030 -- six year terms constitutionally limited to two, but by the new constitution, thus the previous terms, curiously including current, somehow doesn't count. He's maintaining such appearances, increasingly cynically, but still trying to insist on a fleeting minimum standard of tailored legality. Like he traded seats with Dmitry Medvedev for a single presidential term that also seen president suddenly reduced to narrowly representative and Prime Minister (Putin) holding the real power (like, say, Germany. It was swiftly reverted back. (All that for the previous constitution limited presidential terms to two in a row, but not explicitly forbidding running again after a pause

While we of course can't reasonably hope either of those upcoming elections would be free or fair... the Soviet standard of 90% wins (with press releases prepared the previous day) is ridiculous... Putin may be forced to 60% win with would be hurtful enough. More importantly, he may decide to retire in either (while trying to retain shadow power, of course), but such scenario is greatly diminished after what happened in Kazakhstan.



There might be another attempt at that.

But since times before Great Novgorod invited Rurik, Russia had been democratic for about a month in 1917 (that ended in bloodshed after the bolshevik putsch) and somewhat disputed, but the anarchy period between 1991 and, well, it somehow sizzled off, definitely ending by Putin sizing power in what amounted to court coup from by that time constantly drunk Yeltsin, might be described as at least a more or less honest early attempt at building democracy.

And that's all the experience, on the ground so to say, so it would be a rather radical departure for history. Not that unlikely in the today's globalized world, but unfortunately that may change. The current situation is, most seriously, a nudge away from that.

There's basically two plausible more or less peaceful scenarios.

One, the designated successor happen to either be a human with conscience living in disguise or makes a critical miscalculation and decides more real democracy is welcome. Then, of course, there's overwhelming chance the next strongman autocrat wins that sole free election (unsurprisingly, that's how such come to power much frequently around the world), or the next. And yes, that's basically what happened with Soviet Union through the nineties. (Although the economic collapse played only secondary role, and in my opinion is a very unlikely trigger on itself, despite the West's ongoing delusions.)

The other is trough a popular revolution. There's a reason Putin is afraid of a "color revolution" more than anything. The time window that particular phenomenon was feasible may be closing though. There haven't been a new success stories in a while, rather a string of bothered or butchered attempts. The power of communication is slipping back from "people" to regimes increasingly, not by small part by autocracy (or wannabes) learning how to hijack and poison the public discourse (what then justifies crackdown even by nominally democratic regimes, making autocracy job significantly easier and easier to justify). At the same time, willingness to extend real support to revolutionaries is fading, while autocrats increasingly understand they can only survive by supporting each other.

The third way would be total collapse and another period of anarchy and possibly a civil war of some sort. That's understandably risky proposition in a huge low population country with nuclear weapons. I don't know what might cause it as a trigger though. However, Russians are taught to keep their political views close to themselves in proposition that government is an evil to endure. That makes the true pressure under the lid impossible to measure, but as any pressure vessel without a viable drain it can become explosive.

Fourth, the most reliable predictor to regime or dynasty change in Russia is a lost war. No, it never acts directly on a result, there's usually a delay, and the causality is often convoluted if any, but by precedence, it's tremendously risky for Russian rulers to lose a war, even a small or expeditionary one.

Ukraine as Putin's war that destroys his vision of Russia's greatness is tempting, but insanely risky (not to say cruel) proposition. Then, it must be understood, that at least from Ukrainian point of view the war is an ongoing matter, and possibly from the Russian all important subconscioness alike. Putin be seeking way to win it, not start, as the outsider talk goes.

 

[pecksniff]

If I haven't mentioned it before, I do truly enjoy your perspective on Russia.

Latvians have an obvious interest in keeping an eye on Russia.

 

[Sean Renaud]

He's an autocrat....he'll be around as long as he wants to be.

Death has no power over Putin. He'll die when he's good and ready in the year 2525 when aliens conquer the Earth.

 

[pecksniff]

Death has no power over Putin. He'll die when he's good and ready in the year 2525 when aliens conquer the Earth.

Unless that has already happened and Putin is a Lizard Person.

 

[LupusDei]

Unless that has already happened and Putin is a Lizard Person.

Or one of his 4+ body doubles as is sometimes rumored.

It's an enduring conspiracy theory in Russia.Supposedly, the original died during cancer surgery in Germany. I won't go looking up for the date of that supposedly happened, but it was long ago, I think as far back as 2004 or so initially. He very probably had a facelift around 2011, and there was a massive rumor mill when he disappeared for a while in 2015 (for all of ten days or so, but his constant presence is such that is already a real disruption). Supposedly ears are about one of hardest things to fake... so people are trying to tell different Putins apart by those...

And he does appear to have flatly forgotten German language he must have been fluent with back in his agency days.

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTvHGxiEr2ezYpprxO-U2-jF9ifIUSfLk9y3A&usqp=CAUhttps://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQqT4mrCrUBbmNRho8Z5m9DE8Nb9d0MG21fsQ&usqp=CAUhttps://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRAirRlrR76ztybRpff4clC9ZXzwJUbZuIOWQ&usqp=CAU

 

[pecksniff]

Or one of his 4+ body doubles as is sometimes rumored.

It's an enduring conspiracy theory in Russia.Supposedly, the original died during cancer surgery in Germany. I won't go looking up for the date of that supposedly happened, but it was long ago, I think as far back as 2004 or so initially. He very probably had a facelift around 2011, and there was a massive rumor mill when he disappeared for a while in 2015 (for all of ten days or so, but his constant presence is such that is already a real disruption). Supposedly ears are about one of hardest things to fake... so people are trying to tell different Putins apart by those...

And he does appear to have flatly forgotten German language he must have been fluent with back in his agency days.

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTvHGxiEr2ezYpprxO-U2-jF9ifIUSfLk9y3A&usqp=CAUhttps://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQqT4mrCrUBbmNRho8Z5m9DE8Nb9d0MG21fsQ&usqp=CAUhttps://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRAirRlrR76ztybRpff4clC9ZXzwJUbZuIOWQ&usqp=CAU

That would raise the question of who is behind the body doubles. Who might that be?

 

[LupusDei]

That would raise the question of who is behind the body doubles. Who might that be?

Up until recently there was a rather close knit gang, many of them together since the times of Petersburg mayor's office (his dealings with Germany goes back to then too). Allegedly the inner workings of that had soured somewhat, and Putin does appear increasingly lonely. So no, I don't think he's a fake, if that might be somewhat justified ten years ago, it's gone only harder since. Doesn't mean he doesn't employ doubles, that isn't anything unheard of other times and places either.

 

[pecksniff]

Well, we might find out soon enough what happens to Russia after Putin.

 

[oggbashan]

Well, we might find out soon enough what happens to Russia after Putin.

Since Putin is now threatening the West with his nuclear arsenal. there might not be any Russia after Putin.