Russia NOT planning to invade Ukraine?

[pecksniff]

So says their ambassador to the EU.

OK, so now I'm confused. Not that anybody has any reason to trust the Russians, but why would they lie about this? If you're gonna invade, you invade. It's not like they have any element of surprise to lose at this point.

Are they just massing all those troops to scare the West into granting their demands? Which are, essentially, pulling back the West's troops.

 

[Tigersman]

This is just a PR thing for Russia. Putin is just waiting for an excuse to invade the Ukraine. The Ukraine makes it easier to invade all the countries who used to be part of the USSR. Putin as an ex-KGB intelligence officer was a card carrying Communist. He is a hard liner who believes Russia will be stronger as the USSR, but he has missed the lesson that occupying these countries almost bankrupted Russia.

 

[LupusDei]

Are they just massing all those troops to scare the West into granting their demands? Which are, essentially, pulling back the West's troops.

Basically, yes.

He can keep up this level of tension indefinitely, constantly spewing new demands. West will keep talks, as they do, to dismiss his outrageous demands as politely as possible. Putin will declare the very fact of talks as a strategic victory even if there was no tangible concessions, then immediately reiterate his demands. It's a stalemate that will be sold by propaganda of various actors as constant victory by Russia.

Meanwhile, the treat of real invasion won't go away, but will be ramped up. At some point the intermediate range nukes will move to Europe with a great show, spring excercises in Belarus will play out invasion of Baltic states again (they do that regularly), things like that. All the while any movement by NATO or excercises in eastern, central or north Europe will be accompanied by screams of bloody murder.

Note, Putin declared on television he would see any cyber attacks as war. But guess what his web privateers will be doing.

Etc.

Etc.

Etc.

Real invasion gives little tangible benefits to Russia, and constitutes huge risks. Disconnecting from SWIFT and what amounts to basically total trade embargo from US are on the table, not to count possible bloody nose and prolonged insurgency action in the newly occupied territories. It is argued that is already calculated in, and decided as bearable. And, the overarching will, the ideology of the empire revival is such, those rational arguments may not bear much if any weight regardless, so the risk of making that decision is real, unfortunately.

However, what we see now is very loud show of self victimization.

 

[Champakian]

In other words, the sooner the more cost effective
and Russia is not exactly a lucrative concern,
but Ukraine is. Mafia 101.

 

[JohnnySavage]

It's Germany's problem. Let them deal with it.

 

[LupusDei]

It's Germany's problem. Let them deal with it.

I would tend to agree, but the problem is that they won't, unfortunately. Germany itself can put head in sand just as comfortably. There's no direct treat to them, not without long and unfortunate future preventing with has an immediate costs.

 

[JohnnySavage]

Germany won't because it knows the big, stupid kid on the playground (the US) can be manipulated into taking care of it.

And I'll go on record and say the invasion will happen in the height of winter where disruption of energy will have the biggest effect on Europe.

 

[Champakian]

When Hitler got all aggressive, there was a school of thought
that just a little realignment of borders would sate him
so we just looked away and said, well, it's only...

 

[JohnnySavage]

Europes problem

 

[LupusDei]

That's a very cheap prediction right now, because the January - February timing is what all the current assessments are about regardless. There's reasons to it as mundane as literally mud.

 

[Champakian]

Germany won't because it knows the big, stupid kid on the playground (the US) can be manipulated into taking care of it.

And I'll go on record and say the invasion will happen in the height of winter where disruption of energy will have the biggest effect on Europe.

I hope that a lot of the Russian apologists realize that we could, but we won't.

And that might be exactly what the bear is thinking.
A good time for a hostage-taking...

 

[ll74]

I was told that Biden was handing the Ukraine over to Putin. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[Champakian]

Europe's problem

Clearly, it is no problem at all, so I, for one,
will not worry about it in the least little bit.

In no way, shape or form does
Putin remind me of Hitler...

 

[Champakian]

I was told that Biden was handing the Ukraine over to Putin. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

We have come to understand that you entertain all sorts of voices in your tormented cranium...

:shrug:

 

[LupusDei]

I was told that Biden was handing the Ukraine over to Putin. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

So far there's been one small blunder we know of, truthfully but unnecessary stating American boots on the ground are no option. Unfortunately that exempts several unlikely but possible moves, like, there's no way to send Patriot batteries over, not that there ever was (starting with, you're actually short of those as it is).

 

[JohnnySavage]

That's a very cheap prediction right now, because the January - February timing is what all the current assessments are about regardless. There's reasons to it as mundane as literally mud.

Well yea. I don't want to get all crazy with my predictions. But Pecker the Oracle said Russia is NOT going to invade. Used capital letters and everything.

Mud... and the troops don't want to live in tents when it's cold out

 

[LupusDei]

Mud... and the troops don't want to live in tents when it's cold out

In some of those parts tank columns dredge new brooks unless the hell has frozen over.

 

[oggbashan]

Well yea. I don't want to get all crazy with my predictions. But Pecker the Oracle said Russia is NOT going to invade. Used capital letters and everything.

Mud... and the troops don't want to live in tents when it's cold out

The Russians fight better when it's cold. Ask Napoleon and Hitler.

 

[pecksniff]

And, the overarching will, the ideology of the empire revival is such . . .

Is that just Putin's personal thing, or is there some such actual current in Russian politics that would survive him?

 

[ll74]

So far there's been one small blunder we know of, truthfully but unnecessary stating American boots on the ground are no option. Unfortunately that exempts several unlikely but possible moves, like, there's no way to send Patriot batteries over, not that there ever was (starting with, you're actually short of those as it is).

Yah, for whatever reason, we continually try to hold a carrot out by saying "if you're a good boy, Putin, we will conceded on xyz"

Every administration does this and Biden has done it too much.

We need to stop capitulating

 

[pecksniff]

Yah, for whatever reason, we continually try to hold a carrot out by saying "if you're a good boy, Putin, we will conceded on xyz"

Every administration does this and Biden has done it too much.

We need to stop capitulating

But, what's the alternative?

 

[butters]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...lenin-anyway/ar-AAS5nN2?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531

 

[Rightguide]

So says their ambassador to the EU.

OK, so now I'm confused. Not that anybody has any reason to trust the Russians, but why would they lie about this? If you're gonna invade, you invade. It's not like they have any element of surprise to lose at this point.

Are they just massing all those troops to scare the West into granting their demands? Which are, essentially, pulling back the West's troops.

It won't take much to scare Biden and the Democrats into another embarrassing surrender.

 

[KeithD]

That ship has sailed. Russia already invaded and occupied Ukraine's Crimea in 2014.

 

[pecksniff]

It won't take much to scare Biden and the Democrats into another embarrassing surrender.

By surrender, do you mean, pull NATO troops out of Eastern Europe? I doubt that's going to happen in the next ten years no matter who is president.