Should I stay or should I go now?

[Champakian]

If I go there will be trouble,
If I stay it will be double!

So you've got to let me know,
Should I stay or should I go?

Lyrics by The Clash as sung by
Vladamir Putin...



How are you betting on this one?

I say he goes; the West is saddled by weakness and malaise,
economically, militarily, politically and socially.

We see us as the only true enemy
and have bigger fights
to be won...





... Vlad may need to be bad
to retain his power base.

 

[mayfly13]

Is Russia on the Liberal agenda again?

 

[Champakian]

I have no idea.


I really don't know why you would even take that angle...

 

[mayfly13]

I have no idea.


I really don't know why you would even take that angle...

sorry, was trying to engage you in a chat
but looks like I didn't understand your post.

 

[Champakian]

I had no idea that Russia was on the "Liberal Agenda..."


Is this a reference to Bernie Sanders?


Is Russia about to invade Ukraine?

 

[Rightguide]

I'm thinking it's entirely possible that we could be hit with simultaneous attacks on Taiwan and on Ukraine. The enemy has to be sensing Joe's weakness.

 

[Champakian]

I think that is just a matter of time before China moves on Taiwan.

I also think that we'll protest strongly...

... and then go back to sleep.

 

[Rightguide]

I think that is just a matter of time before China moves on Taiwan.

I also think that we'll protest strongly...

... and then go back to sleep.

The free world will take a big hit when that happens. The Japanese and the Philippines will be next.

 

[Champakian]

The Japanese have a long history of dealing with China.

 

[Rightguide]

The Japanese have a long history of dealing with China.

Hopefully they'll have enough time to build an offensive navy and army. I kind of doubt it though.

When Biden talks to Putin today or tomorrow, he needs to tell him he'll shut down the Nord Stream 2 pipeline if he goes into Ukraine.

 

[Champakian]

Biden will be polite and deferential.

Only lower-level diplomats will relay a message like that.

Japan could military up in a very short amount of time.
(*chuckle* It reminds me of a challenge I received over the weekend
about why Japan was so economically sound...)

 

[Rightguide]

Biden will be polite and deferential.

Only lower-level diplomats will relay a message like that.

Japan could military up in a very short amount of time.
(*chuckle* It reminds me of a challenge I received over the weekend
about why Japan was so economically sound...)

Japan is a technological powerhouse but it imports 60% of its food and is the second-largest importer of fossil fuels. So it needs a big navy to keep those imports from being interdicted by China. Much bigger than they have now, that takes time. They'd need an offensive air force as well. We do have a mutual defense treaty with Japan and the Philippines but then Biden is in office and I think he's been compromised by the CCP. So big question there.

 

[Rightguide]

Biden will be polite and deferential.

Only lower-level diplomats will relay a message like that.

Japan could military up in a very short amount of time.
(*chuckle* It reminds me of a challenge I received over the weekend
about why Japan was so economically sound...)

Here's a plan that's making its way around the Pentagon and in Taipei:

"The United States and Taiwan should lay plans for a targeted scorched-earth strategy that would render Taiwan not just unattractive if ever seized by force, but positively costly to maintain," the authors wrote. "This could be done most effectively by threatening to destroy facilities belonging to the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, the most important chipmaker in the world and China's most important supplier."

 

[JohnnySavage]

They should have been spending their GDP on defense instead of using it to undercut American companies.

Not our problem

 

[Rightguide]

They should have been spending their GDP on defense instead of using it to undercut American companies.

Not our problem

Let's pull all of our troops out of Europe as well.

 

[Earthlyone]

They should have been spending their GDP on defense instead of using it to undercut American companies.

Not our problem

Let Japan fall AFTER Mariokart 9 is made and released ffs!

 

[Earthlyone]

Let's pull all of our troops out of Europe as well.

Most of Europe doesn't want your bases there anyway.

 

[JohnnySavage]

Let's pull all of our troops out of Europe as well.

I agree.

 

[LupusDei]

I think we are up for a period of ever increasing tensions, but don't really think anything is just about to happen just yet.

I agree that coordinating Taiwan/Ukraine is logical and should be expected. In part, that gives me hope it won't happen this winter. I don't think China is ready yet. Nor the moment is actually mature politically either. Within next two or three years? Entirely possible. Perhaps, during one of the periods US will have nothing but local elections in mind (almost only con for such -- October '22 or '24 -- timing is mud).

Short term Putin gain most by perpetuating the exactly current situation indefinitely. I mean, there likely will be 100k+ Russian soldiers on Ukrainian border at high combat readiness, seemingly just about to move in attack, for, possibly years from now, everyday. Supply echelons moving back and forth, field hospitals set up, etc. All the while propaganda campaign will cry about Ukrainian aggression, every NATO move in the region trigger hysteria, etc; well, that's business as usual, but they will likely try to ramp it up still.

Putin will use it as a bargaining chip with West, as one he can spend arbitrary numbers of times without really spending. He will promise to not attack and draw forces back for something or other, but weeks or months after will renew the pressure. It's a game he can't lose, and best West can do is not to play. When dealing with Russia (or China for that matter) willingness to compromise is seen by them as a weakness to exploit.

There may be strategic considerations that demand hurry from the respective aggressors, but while those are mounting, I don't think they are critical still either.

Ukraine does arm up, but is there's much they can in fact do in a year or two, bar wide scale international help? All while any attempt of such help will be accompanied by laud screeches from Russia, and "compromise" deals?

Taiwan situation in this regard could be better, but Chinese build up is on another scale entirely, and they are still far from peak (unlike Russia where even maintaining current levels may soon become challenge again, despite much bragging).

At the same time, and especially short term, arms race waste resources and create internal tensions that can be abused, and in this case it's a one sided problem, as both Russia and China are closing up and ramping up internal siege mentality.

As to gas for Europe, if/when anything happens in Ukraine that's closed down in any case. Only question could be with side will announce that first, as an intended punishment for the other.

 

[KeithD]

Apparently, the Ukrainians aren't as weak militarily as some, including Putin, seem to think. Response isn't just up the West.

What would Trump do? Why, whatever Putin wanted, of course.

 

[pecksniff]

I say he goes; the West is saddled by weakness and malaise,
economically, militarily, politically and socially.

Why would that discourage Putin? I'm sure he does not see Russia as part of "the West."

 

[pecksniff]

Let's pull all of our troops out of Europe as well.

Good idea. Nobody in France or Germany or even Poland is living in fear of a Russian invasion -- and from what other direction could a military threat possibly come?

 

[pecksniff]

I'm thinking it's entirely possible that we could be hit with simultaneous attacks on Taiwan and on Ukraine. The enemy has to be sensing Joe's weakness.

Russia and China ain't exactly allies.

 

[pecksniff]

I agree that coordinating Taiwan/Ukraine is logical and should be expected. In part, that gives me hope it won't happen this winter. I don't think China is ready yet.

According to this, the Pentagon expects China won't really be ready until 2027. It will take them that long to "intelligentize" their navy to the point where it can go toe-to-toe with the USN.

 

[LupusDei]

Russia and China ain't exactly allies.

No, but they can coordinate, or at very least size opportunities provided by the other acting elsewhere.