Putin sacrifices a pawn

[ishtat]

One interesting thing about Putin's Criminal Gang is that they are all almost without exception old men. The same men have been with him since his Leningrad days since 1999. He trusts no-one outside of this group and there has developed a logjam of political geriatrics, all obedient, all yes men, and all corrupted by the stolen wealth he has shovelled into their pockets. I cannot see any of these men moving against him.No new blood promoted- no new men. It is very hard to see the future, but the best chance of change might be a coup led by returning middle rank military officers disgusted with Putin's "Special Military Operation Disaster." But they would still have to overcome the only efficient Russian institution- the security police.

 

[Chobham]

No different than the old Soviet Politburo. There are increasing rumors of descension within the ranks.

 

[mayfly13]

One interesting thing about Putin's Criminal Gang is that they are all almost without exception old men. The same men have been with him since his Leningrad days since 1999. He trusts no-one outside of this group and there has developed a logjam of political geriatrics, all obedient, all yes men, and all corrupted by the stolen wealth he has shovelled into their pockets. I cannot see any of these men moving against him.No new blood promoted- no new men. It is very hard to see the future, but the best chance of change might be a coup led by returning middle rank military officers disgusted with Putin's "Special Military Operation Disaster." But they would still have to overcome the only efficient Russian institution- the security police.

Good points.

I also fear that our other wishful thinking - that Putin will be taken down by the population- won't happen either.
The economic sanctions are useless.

Because we are all missing the point of how lay-Russians feel.
Polls (I don't think they are That inflated) show that 70% of them feel that the war is justified. I don't think they'll change that much once they find out about the horrors of the war.

Why?
Yes, a sense of Mother Russia Imperialistic thinking etc.
But also for the same reasons why Germans turned a blind eye to the Holocaust, why the Red Army went on a raping spree of German women in 1940 and the rapes in Nanjing.
A sense that they are on the right side of history, and anger and revenge.

Germans were dying of hunger post ww1, while a small Elite of Jewish speculants and bankers were profiteering. Millions of Russians were killed by Germans, including being experimented upon in concentration camps.
--- The genocide in Donbas was perpetrated by BOTH sides, the mass graves of Russians, discovered in 2021 aren't a lie. Yet The same West, that rightfully condemned the genocide against Ukrainians, tried to gloss over this one.
---And, in a misguided attempt to regain Crimea, Zelensky was planning to restrict further Russian minority rights. The new law would have given rights to 'native' minorities aka Tataars, while restricting those of Russian and other minorities.
And Crimean annexation wasn't by sheer force, most of the population agreed to it.

Those are NOT what motivated Putin to invade & do all those horrors, they were merely welcomed justifications. But it's what lay-Russians saw.

 

[mayfly13]

lol nobody is replying to my long posts
but I'm hoping they might address this one

 

[icanhelp1]

First of all, you were right all along. I admired your wealth of knowledge, but I mistakenly thought you were still stuck in the 1980's with an obsession about the Russian boogeyman.
The world should have paid more attention to Baltic press and to Georgia.




In saying that, and while Putin was Always planning to incorporate Ukraine at some point in the future,
I feel that Zelensky's actions (and to a lesser degree, the West's) made the invasion occur sooner.

Remember that Zelensky was planning to clamp down on minorities rights in 2021, action that already started in 2017.
--Since 2017, minorities in Ukraine are not allowed their own radio station, unless more than 64% are in and about Ukraine.
--Zelenski was planning a law that claimed that minorities were not native people, or something like that.

Of course it was all about trying to get back Crimea and Donbas, but still...
And neither Zelenski, nor the West were disposed to investigate the mass graves of Russians in Donbas(identified via dna) , found in 2021.
Yet when mass graves of Ukrainians were found prior to that, Ukraine and the West did investigate.

Your assessment of Zelenskyy is spot on. He was slowly assuming the role of dictator, kind of behaving like a little Putin. I think people making him to be this white knight are misinformed. Right now the war is making him a hero, his leadership is commendable but he keeps company with some pretty nasty groups starting with the Azov battalion which is a fascist underground (NEO) NAZIS group which I believe would have eventually become the state guard and Zelenskyy's personal guard similar to Putin's state guard. Azov regiment defending Mariupol could be one of the reasons that Russians are intent on total destruction.

IMHO

 

[pecksniff]

One interesting thing about Putin's Criminal Gang is that they are all almost without exception old men. The same men have been with him since his Leningrad days since 1999. He trusts no-one outside of this group and there has developed a logjam of political geriatrics, all obedient, all yes men, and all corrupted by the stolen wealth he has shovelled into their pockets. I cannot see any of these men moving against him.No new blood promoted- no new men. It is very hard to see the future, but the best chance of change might be a coup led by returning middle rank military officers disgusted with Putin's "Special Military Operation Disaster." But they would still have to overcome the only efficient Russian institution- the security police.

Flashing on Casino, with Rothstein kicking up to Mob bosses with oxygen tanks and wheelchairs.

 

[mayfly13]

Your assessment of Zelenskyy is spot on. He was slowly assuming the role of dictator, kind of behaving like a little Putin. I think people making him to be this white knight are misinformed. Right now the war is making him a hero, his leadership is commendable but he keeps company with some pretty nasty groups starting with the Azov battalion which was a fascist underground (NEO) NAZIS group which I believe would have eventually become the state guard and Zelenskyy's personal guard similar to Putin's state guard. Azov regiment defending Mariupol could be one of the reasons that Russians are intent on total destruction.

IMHO

YES!
And I read somewhere that Zelensky was starting to be unpopular even among Ukrainians, because he didn't clamp down on corruption.
However, what's admirable is that Ukrainians let that aside and rallied around him, and gave him credit for how he defended them in the war.

Please tell us more, how you see things.
I hunger for a more nuanced understanding of the conflict.

Right now, while what Putin did was illegal & criminal, , the two takes on the conflict are too extreme & wilfully glossing over things they don't like:
--- Russians, India, Muslim countries and Serbia:
NATO pushed poor victim Russia into invading Ukraine, who had no choice But to invade and annex Ukraine & reconstitute the USSR.
--- The West, Baltic and EE countries:
Russians all bad, they're lying about the mass graves from Donbas, why would they even fear the encroaching of NATO stations all over it's borders?

 

[pecksniff]

--- The West, Baltic and EE countries:
Russians all bad, they're lying about the mass graves from Donbas, why would they even fear the encroaching of NATO stations all over it's borders?

That is a fair question.

 

[icanhelp1]

YES!
And I read somewhere that Zelensky was starting to be unpopular even among Ukrainians, because he didn't clamp down on corruption.
However, what's admirable is that Ukrainians let that aside and rallied around him, and gave him credit for how he defended them in the war.

Please tell us more, how you see things.
I hunger for a more nuanced understanding of the conflict.

Right now, while what Putin did was illegal & criminal, , the two takes on the conflict are too extreme & wilfully glossing over things they don't like:
--- Russians, India, Muslim countries and Serbia:
NATO pushed poor victim Russia into invading Ukraine, who had no choice But to invade and annex Ukraine & reconstitute the USSR.
--- The West, Baltic and EE countries:
Russians all bad, they're lying about the mass graves from Donbas, why would they even fear the encroaching of NATO stations all over it's borders?

Putin is a psychopathic narcissist with a total lack of empathy. He’s still living in the 1960s. Had he embraced NATO and the EU Russia could have been a productive part of the G-20 and the League of Nations.

 

[pecksniff]

Putin is a psychopathic narcissist with a total lack of empathy. He’s still living in the 1960s. Had he embraced NATO and the EU Russia could have been a productive part of the G-20 and the League of Nations.

League of Nations?!

 

[icanhelp1]

League of Nations?!

Metaphorically speaking. There ya go again *Mr. I’m smarter than everyone*

 

[LupusDei]

I feel that Zelensky's actions (and to a lesser degree, the West's) made the invasion occur sooner.

Indeed, you're very possibly right, but for more obscure, yet far more substantial reasons than you appear to think though. His team isn't the usual cronies, not exactly meritocracy either, but mostly a highly functional team as it turned out when shit hit the fan. More importantly, he replaced most of army leadership with relatively young guys with actual combat experience. And he in fact decentralized the functional government, quite a lot, and even more so when the war started.

By the way, relatively speaking, he did in fact clamp down on corruption quite heavily, especially in the military. Not perfectly, he had to work with the system to get anything done, and there was lots that must have done immediately. Almost their entire air defense was brought out of mothballs and refurbished, with no manuals or original spare parts, for just one thing. Sure, they started it before him, but it was all accelerated. In short, he started winning this war two years ago.

For all of that, and not enough feel good nationalism, and not bringing Donbas back immediately (as his election promises of peace was interpreted) he was indeed losing popularity. Initially he was seen as sort of harmless. He had started his showmanship career in Russian TV for all places after all, and ran on programme of compromise and moderation. Nobody expected him to have a spine (and for those who can't possibly explain anything without great power shadow games, it's not even Americans who's backing him, but -- surprise, surprise -- the Brits. Seriously.)

I myself thought they still needed another year or two... but they're fucking heroes and incredibly skillful and resourceful, and Zelensky is doing what he's doing best -- show business -- leaving war to his youthful generals and intelligence to space industry guys and hacker collective, not the thoroughly compromised legacy agency. With wide backing from international intellect and intelligence, they frankly have best combat awareness ever, possibly unrivaled even by Americans at the moment. They fucking do science in real time (like using synthetic aperture radar satellites with 30 meter per pixel resolution to spot aircraft in flight, for one example).

As I said, it was classic scissors situation. Ukraine strength was growing while Russia was wasting away, and it had to attack in the last moment it still had a chance, as they believed, blinded by overconfidence of their own propaganda.

Now, under martial law Zelensky has become a bit of a dictator lite, or his team more accurately. But they have minimal power over armed forces or even regional authorities. And while currently a hero, and deservedly so, he still can become a traitor overnight if he signs a peace that's anything less than total capitulation of Russia. Zelensky may have banned a dozen parties and ordered unification of media to decrease harmful clutter, but he command the narrative way less than people seem to think. He's irreplaceable, but optional. Dying a hero martyr wouldn't be so much tragedy as the catharsis of his act, that's why his bravery isn't madness.

 

[LupusDei]

From what I've heard recently, Mariupol is now being pounded to dust.

The tragic irony being, Mariupol was almost exclusively Russian speaking and with large proportion of ethnic Russian. And those left behind till now, dying from hunger and thirst under relentless indiscriminate fire, might as well be disproportionately those... but very few now loving the purported liberators.