99.5 % covid deaths are the unvaccinated...6,000 in June!

[BabyBoomer50s]

Which continues to not be what should be a concern.

The trend line for hospitalizations by age group and 7 day rolling trend of cases should be the focus

Here is the trend line for hospitalizations. Seven day average 19.3K vs. 123.9K peak. Up about 32% from early July, but less than half of where they stood in May, and down 85% from peak. Don’t have national trend breakdown by age handy. If you have a link that would be great.

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#hospitalizations

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

Another smart OpEd from Holman Jenkins in today’s WSJ:

“If you haven’t had Covid yet, you will. If you’ve had it once, you’ll have it again. If you’re vaccinated or were infected previously—which will one day be most people except the very young—your symptoms will likely be mild or nonexistent, but it’s not guaranteed. Words the CDC says about the flu it will say about Covid: “Vaccination is especially important for people 65 years and older because they are at high risk of developing serious complications from flu. Flu vaccines are updated each season as needed to keep up with changing viruses.”

“Nobody is surprised when they get the flu for the second, the third, the eighth time in their lives. This is what epidemiologists meant when, for the last 15 months, they said the new coronavirus was likely to evolve and become endemic.”


https://www.wsj.com/articles/delta-...ccine-hesitancy-11626816160?mod=hp_opin_pos_2

 

[ll74]

Ok...backing up a bit

My concern is focused on:
1. Increase of cases with specific focus on unvaccinated cases
- this concern is born out of ability for the virus to mutate. The more unvaxxdpeople who get this sucker, the greater the infection rate will be and the greater the chance for the virus to mutate
- this is also due to my determination of my personal risk to myself and the public at large. If I have a greater risk of being infected, I have a higher chance of handing that off to unvaxxd leading to the above and below points
2. Hospitalizations by age
- this is due to the risk of the Delta variant...if it truly is higher for younger peeps, then risk changes
3. Regional r0
- knowing spread risk is key to understanding the entirety of risk

Last but not least, efficacy of the vaccine. As more cases occur, more data leads to better.undwrstanding of this.

 

[ll74]

Here is the trend line for hospitalizations. Seven day average 19.3K vs. 123.9K peak. Up about 32% from early July, but less than half of where they stood in May, and down 85% from peak. Don’t have national trend breakdown by age handy. If you have a link that would be great.

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#hospitalizations

Same site has breakdowns by age (my picture above is from the same)

No reason to pay attention to the peak rate....trend should be less than 60 days and more confined to define current risk. In January,.delta was not even 10% of cases. Relating alpha to delta in a 1-1 relationship is ignorant a d useless

We're doubling our increase of cases week to week right now

 

[ll74]

The concern probably at the top of mind is whether we're heading to exponential growth. The trends look alot like last year's big spikes and we know delta is more infectious...so the likelihood is high

 

[Dribble]

Ok...backing up a bit

My concern is focused on:
1. Increase of cases with specific focus on unvaccinated cases
- this concern is born out of ability for the virus to mutate. The more unvaxxdpeople who get this sucker, the greater the infection rate will be and the greater the chance for the virus to mutate
- this is also due to my determination of my personal risk to myself and the public at large. If I have a greater risk of being infected, I have a higher chance of handing that off to unvaxxd leading to the above and below points
2. Hospitalizations by age
- this is due to the risk of the Delta variant...if it truly is higher for younger peeps, then risk changes
3. Regional r0
- knowing spread risk is key to understanding the entirety of risk

Last but not least, efficacy of the vaccine. As more cases occur, more data leads to better.undwrstanding of this.

The US is not the only country with humans. As long as the World has unvaccinated people, the risk of a bad mutation does not decrease. Another 100k people vaccinated here is nothing in terms of numbers if travel is not regulated.

So...given this...how do we minimize the probability of a bad mutation from happening? Well...if you can't vaccinate...the ONLY other way to create antibodies is exposure. Delta is extremely virulent. Let it go. Short-term there will be greater mortality. Especially in third-world countries and in other unvaccinated populations. As long as the health care system is not overloaded...this IS the only way to mitigate the potential of a bad mutation. Use the fact that Delta becomes the dominant strain eliminating other strains...INCLUDING ANY NEW MUTATION as long as the new mutation is not more virulent than Delta. Mutations...especially new mutations...are governed by the process of random drift MORE than selection. These are facts.

I have a fucking PhD in Fisheries Science, specializing in Quantitative Genetics. It is not Virology. But I can pretty much guarantee I am the only person on the GB that has actually worked with viruses in both fish and livestock animals. Guess what? The population genetics are the same

 

[WillJ8787]

The US is not the only country with humans. As long as the World has unvaccinated people, the risk of a bad mutation does not decrease. Another 100k people vaccinated here is nothing in terms of numbers if travel is not regulated.

So...given this...how do we minimize the probability of a bad mutation from happening? Well...if you can't vaccinate...the ONLY other way to create antibodies is exposure. Delta is extremely virulent. Let it go. Short-term there will be greater mortality. Especially in third-world countries and in other unvaccinated populations. As long as the health care system is not overloaded...this IS the only way to mitigate the potential of a bad mutation. Use the fact that Delta becomes the dominant strain eliminating other strains...INCLUDING ANY NEW MUTATION as long as the new mutation is not more virulent than Delta. Mutations...especially new mutations...are governed by the process of random drift MORE than selection. These are facts.

I have a fucking PhD in Fisheries Science, specializing in Quantitative Genetics. It is not Virology. But I can pretty much guarantee I am the only person on the GB that has actually worked with viruses in both fish and livestock animals. Guess what? The population genetics are the same

Thank you....100% agree.

 

[butters]

i'm worried the health system WOULD get overloaded, though we're in a much better position re ventilators and knowledge of how to quickly set up extra i.c units after the last peak

staff are still burnt out from dealing with covid at its height last year and now they're being asked to do it all over again

 

[KeithD]

The best response is for the Trumpers to get over themselves, get vaccinated, and for the United States to help vaccinate the rest of the world as well. Don't step away from who/what is the problem here. It's not in the lack of a solution (vaccinations) nor is it the fault of the Biden administration, which stepped up to this even before taking office.

It's the Donald Trump killer crazies. When they realize they are killing themselves more than "lbruls," just maybe they will gather enough brain power to stop the stupid suicide.

 

[ll74]

The US is not the only country with humans. As long as the World has unvaccinated people, the risk of a bad mutation does not decrease. Another 100k people vaccinated here is nothing in terms of numbers if travel is not regulated.

So...given this...how do we minimize the probability of a bad mutation from happening? Well...if you can't vaccinate...the ONLY other way to create antibodies is exposure. Delta is extremely virulent. Let it go. Short-term there will be greater mortality. Especially in third-world countries and in other unvaccinated populations. As long as the health care system is not overloaded...this IS the only way to mitigate the potential of a bad mutation. Use the fact that Delta becomes the dominant strain eliminating other strains...INCLUDING ANY NEW MUTATION as long as the new mutation is not more virulent than Delta. Mutations...especially new mutations...are governed by the process of random drift MORE than selection. These are facts.

I have a fucking PhD in Fisheries Science, specializing in Quantitative Genetics. It is not Virology. But I can pretty much guarantee I am the only person on the GB that has actually worked with viruses in both fish and livestock animals. Guess what? The population genetics are the same

Greater vaccinations locally means risk and impact locally is minimal. Additionally, having the western world under control (i.e. the travellers) means less impact from abroad.

Yes, mutations are still going to happen, but if you cut out the people who travel the most, you can control it much easier.

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

The US is not the only country with humans. As long as the World has unvaccinated people, the risk of a bad mutation does not decrease. Another 100k people vaccinated here is nothing in terms of numbers if travel is not regulated.

So...given this...how do we minimize the probability of a bad mutation from happening? Well...if you can't vaccinate...the ONLY other way to create antibodies is exposure. Delta is extremely virulent. Let it go. Short-term there will be greater mortality. Especially in third-world countries and in other unvaccinated populations. As long as the health care system is not overloaded...this IS the only way to mitigate the potential of a bad mutation. Use the fact that Delta becomes the dominant strain eliminating other strains...INCLUDING ANY NEW MUTATION as long as the new mutation is not more virulent than Delta. Mutations...especially new mutations...are governed by the process of random drift MORE than selection. These are facts.

I have a fucking PhD in Fisheries Science, specializing in Quantitative Genetics. It is not Virology. But I can pretty much guarantee I am the only person on the GB that has actually worked with viruses in both fish and livestock animals. Guess what? The population genetics are the same

Yes, I think you’re right.

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

The best response is for the Trumpers to get over themselves, get vaccinated, and for the United States to help vaccinate the rest of the world as well. Don't step away from who/what is the problem here. It's not in the lack of a solution (vaccinations) nor is it the fault of the Biden administration, which stepped up to this even before taking office.

It's the Donald Trump killer crazies. When they realize they are killing themselves more than "lbruls," just maybe they will gather enough brain power to stop the stupid suicide.

What about all those blacks? Are they killer crazies too? Or the people The NY Times wrote about who haven’t gotten vaccinated because they were told that masks protected them as well as others?

 

[Dribble]

Greater vaccinations locally means risk and impact locally is minimal. Additionally, having the western world under control (i.e. the travellers) means less impact from abroad.

Yes, mutations are still going to happen, but if you cut out the people who travel the most, you can control it much easier.

It is too late for that. Delta says no...and laughs. This was true 2....maybe 3 months ago...but Delta is increasing at a rate that far exceeds any vaccination rate.

What can help...masks. But just as you can't force a retard to get vaccinated...you can't force a retard to wear a mask.

Nature is amazing. Humans try to force their will on it...and the best you can do is bend nature's will. Delta will shut down the US even if no Govt or city mandates it.

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

Delta will shut down the US even if no Govt or city mandates it.

Not buying that. There are and will continue to be spikes in cases with regional hotspots which are likely to increase as we move into fall, but the draconian lockdown mistakes of 2020 are not going to repeated. The hospital systems across the country are well-prepared and more than 80% of the most vulnerable segments of the population have been vaccinated. The WSJ reported this morning that most economists see the Delta variant having little impact on the economic outlook.

 

[LukSkyFokker]

The hospital systems across the country are well-prepared and more than 80% of the most vulnerable segments of the population have been vaccinated. The WSJ reported this morning that most economists see the Delta variant having little impact on the economic outlook.

Biden rocks.

 

[StrictMiss]

Yahoo! The first Covid lambda variant appears in Texas.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...entified-texas-hospital-what-know/8039406002/

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

New York, New York! If get infected there I’ll get infected anywhere, it’s up to you New York, New York!

“The overall NYPD vaccination rate between police officers and professional support staff is about 43%, the department said in a statement Wednesday.” - NBC New York

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/cor...f-have-received-the-covid-19-vaccine/3166342/

 

[KeithD]

What about all those blacks? Are they killer crazies too? Or the people The NY Times wrote about who haven’t gotten vaccinated because they were told that masks protected them as well as others?

They have a historical reason to be leery, but, yes, those who haven't vaccinated (which isn't all of them as you seem to want to convey) are just like you in their lack of perception and understanding. I don't think I've seen any of them on porn discussion boards trying to mislead people toward death as you are doing. though--so, I guess, they are still morally superior to you.

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

They have a historical reason to be leery, but, yes, those who haven't vaccinated (which isn't all of them as you seem to want to convey) are just like you in their lack of perception and understanding. I don't think I've seen any of them on porn discussion boards trying to mislead people toward death as you are doing. though--so, I guess, they are still morally superior to you.

At least your outrage doesn’t single out any particular segment of the unvaccinated. High rates of hesitancy cuts along race, age, occupation, political leanings, population density, and prior infection history. Not all blacks, Hispanics, cops, military personnel, Republicans, young people, rural residents, and people with prior Covid infections are unvaccinated, but high percentages of these groups are opting out for now. If ranting about it makes you feel better, that’s cool with me.

 

[KeithD]

Outrage? Rant? You wish.

I'm vaccinated, so it's fine with me if you're not. In fact, it's very fine with me if you're not.

 

[Dribble]

Outrage? Rant? You wish.

I'm vaccinated, so it's fine with me if you're not. In fact, it's very fine with me if you're not.

The government needs to stop giving money to the unvaccinated. Furthermore, they need to take back any economic stimulus they have taken. You reward those that do the right thing

 

[ll74]

New proposal:

No vaccine = No Ventilator

 

[Dribble]

Republicans want voter IDs. No difference between that and vaccination IDs. You want a service...have the proper ID. In fact, I am sure we can combine them into one ID

 

[Dribble]

New proposal:

No vaccine = No Ventilator

I would support this

 

[Dribble]

Republicans keep saying Kamala Harris refused to be vaccinated while she was campaigning. Well, if the vaccine hadn't yet been approved...that is kinda like a duh

At least do some research before repeating a lie