Why are people citing them without qualification? Aren't they afraid that they'll look foolish like 2016? I've heard media citing without any indication whatsoever that the data collection and sampling are any different. Wasn't 2016 humiliating enough? I mean, the smartest man in the world guaranteed that Donald Trump would NEVER be President. A Biden landslide? Possibly wishful thinking, no?
Polls
- Thread starter Ramone45
- Start date
^^^^^^
LMFAO
FYI the polls were not wrong in 2016...Trumps win fell within the margin of error, and two polls I know of, correctly predicted his election....
They weren't?
NO, they were not,
Clinton won the national popular vote by two percentage points according to certified vote tallies compiled by David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report. Most individual surveys found Clinton holding a small single-digit edge over Trump, averaging to a three-point margin. Looking across individual national polls, the average difference from the final Clinton-Trump vote margin is 2.2 percentage points, much smaller than the level of error apparent when they were compared to preliminary vote results (3.4 points).
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...uch-did-polls-miss-the-mark-on-trump-and-why/
However how the data was interpreted prior to the election was biased toward Clinton.
But everyone just jumped on the "Polls are all wrong bandwagon"...funny how the resident Math expert here never picked up on that....*chuckles* but you all keep believing polls are wrong...it will serve you well next November....
Wrong Element
Sentient Onion
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- May 5, 2002
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- 24,909
Little-known fact: the polls came closer to nailing the popular vote in 2016 than in 2012.
2012: Final polls Obama +1; actual result Obama +4
2016: Final polls Clinton +4; actual result Clinton +2
It all goes back to 2012 and 538 correctly predicting every state. In 2016 538 gave Clinton a 73% chance of winning. But everyone forgot that still meant Trump still had a 27% chance of winning.....
The polls currently are no where near as close as they were in 2016...but let them drink their Kool-aid and bask in the knowledge that polls are wrong.....
Shifty_McGee
Loves Spam
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America has tons of millenial votes that will be cast this year that were unable to in the last election. Their view of how america should be doesnt align with the GOP. The cards are stacked in Biden's favour, it's his election to lose.
Ziggins
Literotica Guru
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- Oct 28, 2019
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To campaign workers, poll numbers could mean having or not having a job tomorrow. To casual observers, they are entertainment, like a sports pregame show. The defenses against robocalling skew the sample of who answers polls, so I don't expect them to be accurate until they find other means of contacting voters. That probably means more legwork and more expense.
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