What are the odds, really?

[Conager]

Let's assume not that you are neither pre-diabetic, alcoholic, regular subway rider in NYC living in a five-story walkup in Brooklyn or me living in the wild west's open spaces with no orrs9nsl or family history of heart or lung disease....but just an average world citizen who bumps into the Wuhan China Virus known now by recently converted geeks as SARS-Cov2 .

How likely are you to die? Just on average, for the average WuFlu (known as COVID19 by geeks) "victim" with average access to average healthcare considering that most will not know they have been infected for weeks, if at all?

After voting to predict the eventual, actual mortality rate, feel free to share your personal concerns about your own situation or those in your orbit.

I think we can all agree that doing what can be done to avoid infected vulnerable people is a worthy goal, for the same reason you should never visit a hospital or nursing home if you're in any doubt about your health.

Just for fun: https://www.solenya.org/coronavirus

 

[CuriousGirlSydney]

One in 248,000 odds - I’m cool with that.

 

[dp4shelly]

One percent from the virus and...

It seems likely that only 1 percent or less will actually die from this particular China Virus. However, the total death count from what the communist government in China has done to the world will be vastly greater. Tragic as it is the best course probably would have been to let the virus run it's course and the survival of the fittest would have taken place. Now with the global economy wobbling and the food chain starting to break down the unintended consequence of what they have unleashed on the world will start to ravage human society in many ways. Starvation, riots and likely wars will erupt. The dramatically weakened global economy will not be able to attempt a second 'shut down' when the next China Virus slithers our of China or some other hellhole.

We have been planning to move and live off grid for years and now we are gearing up to make that happen fast.

 

[Saint_Ann]

The true denominator will never be known. I'm not running out to be tested. Are you?

 

[Conager]

It's slightly possible that I had it in January. I definitely want to get the antibody test for a lot of different reasons, when and if that becomes reliable and available.

 

[Saint_Ann]

It's slightly possible that I had it in January. I definitely want to get the antibody test for a lot of different reasons, when and if that becomes reliable and available.

^
hypochondriac.

 

[Conager]

Possibly it was hypochondria. I suspect that hypochondria is highly contagious, these days. I would have to defer to Comshaw and Fuzzy to calculate the mortality tables for hypochondria.

A had a client with a persistent, dry cough coughing around me. He volunteered at the time that his personal physician had prescribed antibiotics and he is non-communicable because he has been on them a few days. My thought at the time is he's exactly the kind of entitled asshole that a doctor will give antibiotics to, just to get rid of them.

It's possible that he actually did have a bacterial pneumonia but fir weeks is unlikely. It's also possible that he could have had a bacterial infection that was secondary to an underlying respiratory virus, one of which could be the WuFlu. He was a frequent flyer, so not out if the realm if the possible if California had it as early as now theorized.

Either way, I did pick up his hacking cough and was lethargic for nearly a month. If it happened now, I would have stopped working and gotten a test. Back then, I worked through it and took a cough suppressant and guaifenesin. The guaifenesin was unproductive.

 

[FGB]

It certainly would be Better if neither myself or my roommate caught it.

For me it would be very risky.

For her...She would be a DEAD DUCK!

 

[Conager]

You roomin' with Daisy?!??

https://icon2.kisspng.com/20180329/dhe/kisspng-mickey-mouse-daisy-duck-minnie-mouse-donald-duck-p-disney-pluto-5abd1855214e89.8167651015223419731364.jpg

 

[Saint_Ann]

Possibly it was hypochondria. I suspect that hypochondria is highly contagious, these days. I would have to defer to Comshaw and Fuzzy to calculate the mortality tables for hypochondria.

A had a client with a persistent, dry cough coughing around me. He volunteered at the time that his personal physician had prescribed antibiotics and he is non-communicable because he has been on them a few days. My thought at the time is he's exactly the kind of entitled asshole that a doctor will give antibiotics to, just to get rid of them.

It's possible that he actually did have a bacterial pneumonia but fir weeks is unlikely. It's also possible that he could have had a bacterial infection that was secondary to an underlying respiratory virus, one of which could be the WuFlu. He was a frequent flyer, so not out if the realm if the possible if California had it as early as now theorized.

Either way, I did pick up his hacking cough and was lethargic for nearly a month. If it happened now, I would have stopped working and gotten a test. Back then, I worked through it and took a cough suppressant and guaifenesin. The guaifenesin was unproductive.

I get that cough every year but it's really hanging on. 2 days of fever feb 25.

 

[Conager]

It's probably the lupus!

 

[InsightRiot]

Is there a way to figure IFR?
They explain IR can’t be predicted...

 

[Conager]

Sampling.

It has to be randomized. You can't keep testing people that you think are sick and using those numbers of his they mean something. All that means is which of the people who thought they were sick are actually caring this particular virus or antivirus at all. It's a self selecting population sample.

There are still on gnomes but we're getting to know more now that they're is some antibody sampling going on. It would also be useful to do some randomized testing of current infections. It would also be interesting to follow a specific population group and test them on a regular basis.

Most of what has needed to be known was already identified and patiently explained weeks ago before this thing became a media frenzy panic:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-this-epidemiologist-is-more-worried-about-coronavirus-than-he-was-a-month-ago-2020-03-09

Weeks ago and the guy nails it, including explaining the vast range of the possible outcomes and why the uncertainty. Now that we have data to work backwards from it is pretty apparent that it is not as transmissible as feared, and nowhere near as deadly as feared.

It cannot both be easily transmissible and extremely deadly without more deaths, and that's taking the reported suspected deaths at face value.

We know that social distancing has not had some dramatic effect on transmission because of places that did not do so. It has to have helped some, but the numbers are not there. The Israeli statistician showed that this virus is following Farr's law and does not care what you do. The best predictor of hospitalization and deaths is the rough time since the virus was introduced to a region, and the length of time yo where they are on that predictable cycle. Viruses find the most susceptible to infection early, and kill the most vulnerable first. It isn't personal, it's trial and error for the virus until it runs short of host to act as carriers.

People are acting as if an asymptomatic carrier is just as contagious as a hospital patient coughing his last breath, and that these low-viral-load, asymptomatic carriers are wandering around infecting everyone they encounter for brief periods and that remain infectious for long periods of time.

Respiratory viruses live in the lungs and they get out of the lungs because you're coughing sneezing, and hacking them up. Asymptomatic people aren't doing any of that. How's that virus getting transported to the next victim?

Probably wasn't unreasonable to assume and prepare for the worst, bit as all of the above information became known the public should have been reassured. A vigilant public is hood; an irrationally panicked population serves only the interests of those inciting the panic and controlling the narrative.

Many people think contact with this virus is a death sentence.

on gnomes = unknowns.

 

[Saint_Ann]

https://awesomestuff365.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/funny-garden-gnomes.jpg

 

[dp4shelly]

Me too

It's slightly possible that I had it in January. I definitely want to get the antibody test for a lot of different reasons, when and if that becomes reliable and available.

I had a bug and a cough that I could not shake. Good chance it was the China Virus. I am planning to get tested when those that needed it the most have had a chance to be test. I think that the virus was in circulation longer than we are being told.

 

[Saint_Ann]

I had a bug and a cough that I could not shake. Good chance it was the China Virus. I am planning to get tested when those that needed it the most have had a chance to be test. I think that the virus was in circulation longer than we are being told.

When?

 

[FL30]

I had a bug and a cough that I could not shake. Good chance it was the China Virus. I am planning to get tested when those that needed it the most have had a chance to be test. I think that the virus was in circulation longer than we are being told.

It was probably already in the US in December or January at the very latest. We just didn't know it.

 

[SpeareChucker]

The true denominator will never be known. I'm not running out to be tested. Are you?

It's slightly possible that I had it in January. I definitely want to get the antibody test for a lot of different reasons, when and if that becomes reliable and available.

That's the thing.
I, too, was sick in March.
Who knows, most infected people
simply do not get hospitalization level sick.



:shrug:

 

[Lancecastor19]

You guys probably started it. Trump Flu.

 

[SpeareChucker]

No, it was a Libertarian flu...

Although Democrats seem to be hardest hit.
I'm not at Liberty to explain exactly as to why.

 

[Ziggins]

Specific causes don't matter as much as the probability of higher numbers by many causes.

 

[Tryharder62]

It's not bad odds until you are the one that has it!

 

[Conager]

It's not bad odds until you are the one that has it!

Well, place your bets above.

I say your odds are over 99.5 to one that you survive.

 

[oneblueye]

hey...

It's slightly possible that I had it in January. I definitely want to get the antibody test for a lot of different reasons, when and if that becomes reliable and available.

Every symptom that was reported with the exception being the loss of smell and taste, is like the shit I was going through from the last week in October 2019 thru the first week of January 2020. And with the latest round of further and more in depth testing, they are finding that the first wave of this covid shit hit our shores before January 2020. When its all said and done the reports of this shit slamming thru China back in June and July of 2019 is looking more and more like an actuality than a witch hunt and fake news, eh?

 

[Conager]

Although it did not vote in my poll, the NY version of the virus has weighed in via an antibody test. It was more than a sufficiently large sample size but possibly not broad enough in its selection method.*

It concurs with my instinctual assessment and aligns with the numbers computed for LA, Santa Clara, and Germany.

Since those of the cult of OMB have celebrated ever-increasing, gross numbers of cases and deaths while refusing to put them in a per-capita perspective, I'm sure I can be forgiven for taking a victory lap over my more optimistic projection of the deadliness of the virus bearing out. I certainly will sleep fine at night being happy that less, rather than more people will die.

*those sampled were out and about on 'necessary' errands which may or may not say something about their past risk-taking or confidence of being in public. It may also be oversampled with people who feel they are healthy and have not been exposed. Those not sampled might have been less exposed by tighter isolation or the might be absent because they are I'll pr suspect they may be contagious. Everyone's gotta eat, though, so grocery store sampling seems as random as you can expect without intruding on isolation