COVID-19 by the Numbers/Facts

[Fuzzy1975]

Read the news. 50 governors are taking the appropriate actions, instructing their citizens to hunker down, military medical reserves are being deployed, testing sites are popping up everywhere, schools are closed, beaches and bars are closed, restaurants limited to take out, no more than 10 people in a group, national guard units deployed to assist with logistics, manufacturing Co's are retooling to mass produce PPE and ventilators, pharmaceutical Co's are at it 24/7 to find a remedy, two massive hospital ships are under way, the use of cruise ships, army MASH units and the use of hotels to house patients. Hospitals are erecting triage units outside their emergency rooms. And then there is a massive stimulus pkg working its way through congress. Just some of the initiatives. We, as a nation are very aware of the importance of action and what's on the horizon and people are responding, doing what they're told!!!!

Harpy say's otherwise...he says not to panic, just go about your daily life...


Nice to see the Governors react.

Let us recap, this virus is extremely contagious, fatal in 3% of the population, humans have no immunity, there is no vaccine, no drugs to treat it, average hospital stay is 10-30 days for sever cases.

Predictions are for several waves of infection to roll through the country until such time as a vaccine ( or natural mutation of the virus makes it innocuous) is ready.

The best you can do is the above???? That was brought out in conversation weeks ago, and you denied it would even come to that. Oh there are just a few cases among 327 million Americans you said...it is no more dangerous than the flu....
At least you finally woke up from the Fox news delusion that this is SERIOUS

Your response is to be reactive to the virus...great plan.... since Trump blew the chance to be proactive...



While you may doubt my sincerity I really wish no one has to die from this virus, and that it could all be prevented. Barring that it could be at least isolated and contained.

But...

WTF was Trump three weeks ago? Oh yes right, we have very little cases, almost zero, this will be gone by April....

18,876 cases of virus now...

 

[jaF0]

Let us recap, this virus is extremely contagious, fatal in 3% of the population, humans have no immunity, there is no vaccine, no drugs to treat it, average hospital stay is 10-30 days for sever cases.

Poppycock!

 

[Fuzzy1975]

Poppycock!

So what drugs do they have to treat it?


I agree we can quibble about the rate of death, I am just using the current mortality rate.

3.4% Mortality Rate estimate by the World Health Organization (WHO) as of March 3
In his opening remarks at the March 3 media briefing on Covid-19, WHO Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus stated:

“Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected.” [13]

Initial estimate was 2%
Initially, the World Health Organization (WHO) had mentioned 2% as a mortality rate estimate in a press conference on Wednesday, January 29 [1][2] and again on February 10. However, on January 29 WHO specified that this was a very early and provisional estimate that might have changed. Surveillance was increasing, within China but also globally, but at the time it was said that:

We don't know how many were infected ("When you look at how many people have died, you need to look at how many people where infected, and right now we don't know that number. So it is early to put a percentage on that."[1][2]).
The only number currently known is how many people have died out of those who have been reported to the WHO.
It is therefore very early to make any conclusive statements about what the overall mortality.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#who-03-03-20

19,083 cases of infection 252 deaths.

 

[LincolnDuncan]

Jan. 22: “We have it totally under control.”
Jan. 24: “It will all work out well.”
China has been working very hard to contain the Coronavirus. The United States greatly appreciates their efforts and transparency. It will all work out well. In particular, on behalf of the American People, I want to thank President Xi!
Jan. 29: “Just received a briefing on the Coronavirus in China from all of our GREAT agencies, who are also working closely with China. We will continue to monitor the ongoing developments. We have the best experts anywhere in the world, and they are on top of it 24/7!”
Jan. 30: “We think we have it very well under control. We have very little problem in this country at this moment — five. And those people are all recuperating successfully. But we’re working very closely with China and other countries, and we think it’s going to have a very good ending for it. So that I can assure you.”
Feb. 2: “Well, we pretty much shut it down coming in from China. … We can’t have thousands of people coming in who may have this problem, the coronavirus. So we’re gonna see what happens, but we did shut it down, yes.”
Feb. 7: “Nothing is easy, but [Chinese President Xi Jinping] … will be successful, especially as the weather starts to warm & the virus hopefully becomes weaker, and then gone.”
Just had a long and very good conversation by phone with President Xi of China. He is strong, sharp and powerfully focused on leading the counterattack on the Coronavirus. He feels they are doing very well, even building hospitals in a matter of only days. Nothing is easy, but.......he will be successful, especially as the weather starts to warm & the virus hopefully becomes weaker, and then gone. Great discipline is taking place in China, as President Xi strongly leads what will be a very successful operation. We are working closely with China to help!
Feb. 10: “I think the virus is going to be — it’s going to be fine.”
Feb. 14: “We have a very small number of people in the country, right now, with it. It’s like around 12. Many of them are getting better. Some are fully recovered already. So we’re in very good shape.”
Feb. 19: “I think it’s going to work out fine. I think when we get into April, in the warmer weather, that has a very negative effect on that and that type of a virus. So let’s see what happens, but I think it’s going to work out fine.”
Feb. 24: “The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA. … Stock Market starting to look very good to me!”
The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA. We are in contact with everyone and all relevant countries. CDC & World Health have been working hard and very smart. Stock Market starting to look very good to me!
Feb. 25: “You may ask about the coronavirus, which is very well under control in our country. We have very few people with it, and the people that have it are … getting better. They’re all getting better. … As far as what we’re doing with the new virus, I think that we’re doing a great job.”

Feb. 25: “CDC and my Administration are doing a GREAT job of handling Coronavirus, including the very early closing of our borders to certain areas of the world.”

Feb. 26: “Because of all we’ve done, the risk to the American people remains very low. … When you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero. That’s a pretty good job we’ve done."
Q: This is spreading — or is going to spread, maybe, within communities. That’s the expectation.
A: It may. It may.
Q: Does that worry you?
A: No. ... No, because we’re ready for it. It is what it is. We’re ready for it. We’re really prepared. ... We hope it doesn’t spread. There’s a chance that it won’t spread too, and there’s a chance that it will, and then it’s a question of at what level.
Feb. 27: “Only a very small number in U.S., & China numbers look to be going down. All countries working well together!”
Feb. 28: “I think it’s really going well. We did something very fortunate: we closed up to certain areas of the world very, very early — far earlier than we were supposed to. I took a lot of heat for doing it. It turned out to be the right move, and we only have 15 people and they are getting better, and hopefully they’re all better. There’s one who is quite sick, but maybe he’s gonna be fine. … We’re prepared for the worst, but we think we’re going to be very fortunate."
Feb. 28: “It’s going to disappear. One day, it’s like a miracle, it will disappear.”
Feb. 29: “We’re the number-one travel destination anywhere in the world, yet we have far fewer cases of the disease than even countries with much less travel or a much smaller population.”
March 4: “Some people will have this at a very light level and won’t even go to a doctor or hospital, and they’ll get better. There are many people like that.”
March 5: “With approximately 100,000 CoronaVirus cases worldwide, and 3,280 deaths, the United States, because of quick action on closing our borders, has, as of now, only 129 cases (40 Americans brought in) and 11 deaths.”
With approximately 100,000 CoronaVirus cases worldwide, and 3,280 deaths, the United States, because of quick action on closing our borders, has, as of now, only 129 cases (40 Americans brought in) and 11 deaths. We are working very hard to keep these numbers as low as possible!
Twitter Ads info and privacy
53.5K people are talking about this
March 6: “We did an interview on Fox last night, a town hall. I think it was very good. And I said, ‘Calm. You have to be calm. It’ll go away.' ”
March 7: “It came out of China, and we heard about it. And made a good move: We closed it down; we stopped it. Otherwise — the head of CDC said last night that you would have thousands of more problems if we didn’t shut it down very early. That was a very early shutdown, which is something we got right."
March 8: Retweets a story about Surgeon General Jerome Adams playing down the risk of coronavirus
March 9: “The Fake News Media and their partner, the Democrat Party, is doing everything within its semi-considerable power (it used to be greater!) to inflame the CoronaVirus situation, far beyond what the facts would warrant. Surgeon General, ‘The risk is low to the average American.’ ”
March 9: “So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!”
So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!
March 10: “As you know, it’s about 600 cases, it’s about 26 deaths, within our country. And had we not acted quickly, that number would have been substantially more.”
March 10: “And it hit the world. And we’re prepared, and we’re doing a great job with it. And it will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away.”
March 11: “I think we’re going to get through it very well.”
March 12: “It’s going to go away. ... The United States, because of what I did and what the administration did with China, we have 32 deaths at this point … when you look at the kind of numbers that you’re seeing coming out of other countries, it’s pretty amazing when you think of it.”
March 13: Says Food and Drug Administration “will bring, additionally, 1.4 million tests on board next week and 5 million within a month. I doubt we’ll need anywhere near that.”
March 14: “We’re using the full power of the federal government to defeat the virus, and that’s what we’ve been doing.” Also retweeted supporter Candace Owens who cited “good news” on coronavirus, including that, “Italy is hit hard, experts say, because they have the oldest population in Europe (average age of those that have died is 81).”
March 15: “This is a very contagious virus. It’s incredible. But it’s something that we have tremendous control over.”
March 16: “If you’re talking about the virus, no, that’s not under control for any place in the world. ... I was talking about what we’re doing is under control, but I’m not talking about the virus.”
March 17: “We’re going to win. And I think we’re going to win faster than people think -- I hope.”
Your weekday afternoon cheat sheet on the biggest stories in politics — that can be read in 5 minutes or less.

 

[icanhelp1]

^^ all that for a mortality rate of 1.3% and dropping.

But, but, but so few people tested...

Remember, the more tested, the higher the denominator AND, the majority of initial tests will only be given to those suspected of having the virus.

People aren't breaking down the aggregate numbers and digging into specifics such as, locales, age groups, pre-existing conditions, actual infection rates compared to total testing rates ( incomplete ) and adjusting those numbers to reflect real values and not Trump BAD as conclusive. It's too early for any substantial rehab rates. When all you read is orange man bad, Trump bad! To me that's not the scientific method, forming a hypothesis based on partisan media reports is trash!!

 

[Fuzzy1975]

People aren't breaking down the aggregate numbers and digging into specifics such as, locales, age groups, pre-existing conditions, actual infection rates compared to total testing rates ( incomplete ) and adjusting those numbers to reflect real values and not Trump BAD as conclusive. It's too early for any substantial rehab rates. When all you read is orange man bad, Trump bad! To me that's not the scientific method, forming a hypothesis based on partisan media reports is trash!!

current infection of 19,106 in the US

 

[icanhelp1]

current infection of 19,106 in the US

Mortality rates

Canada= .011

USA = .012

 

[HisArpy]

Harpy say's otherwise...he says not to panic, just go about your daily life...

I said to STOP PANICKING. You saying more than that is you panicking and ascribing your bullshit to what I said.

I am "essential services". I get to go out there and deal with people on a 1 to 1 basis KNOWING that I will eventually contact someone with the virus. I'm 60 and I have immune system issues.

I go anyway.

Meanwhile you sit at home and snivel about how you're gonna die. It's disgusting. Man up, shut the fuck up, and STOP PANICKING.

 

[HisArpy]

*major snippage*

Good job on the C&P fake news.

Do you have anything to add to the conversation or are you just stirring the pot?

 

[Fuzzy1975]

I said to STOP PANICKING. You saying more than that is you panicking and ascribing your bullshit to what I said.

I am "essential services". I get to go out there and deal with people on a 1 to 1 basis KNOWING that I will eventually contact someone with the virus. I'm 60 and I have immune system issues.

I go anyway.

Meanwhile you sit at home and snivel about how you're gonna die. It's disgusting. Man up, shut the fuck up, and STOP PANICKING.

HuH? where did you get the idea I am worried about dying, we are all going to die...TFF

19,285 infected in the US 250 dead, 19,644 infected in Iran 1433 dead...bet the US does lap Iran tonight...at leasted in infected...

 

[oggbashan]

current infection of 19,106 in the US

But when testing is so slow and so erratic the true numbers are unknown, as they are in almost all countries because those being tested are only those displaying symptoms. You can be symptomless yet be able to pass on the virus. The disparity between those tested and those who should be tested is probably larger in the US than almost anywhere.

What the figures will be in a week's time, or a month? It is just a wild guess but they are likely to make today's figure seem very small.

 

[HisArpy]

HuH? where did you get the idea I am worried about dying, we are all going to die...TFF

19,285 infected in the US 250 dead, 19,644 infected in Iran 1433 dead...bet the US does lap Iran tonight...at leasted in infected...

Lol. Seriously, man up you little pussy and quit sniveling about how we're all gonna die. You don't conquer fear by giving in to it.

From there:

The population of the US is 327.17 million.

The population of Iran is 82 million.


OF FUCKING COURSE we're going to have higher contagion numbers. The US has 4 times the population as Iran. Even if the the virus runs rampant in Iran because of their fucked up Mullahs telling people to congregate and lick holy artifacts, we'll STILL probably have higher levels just from the population difference.

Sheesh, you're a maroon.

 

[HisArpy]

But when testing is so slow and so erratic the true numbers are unknown, as they are in almost all countries because those being tested are only those displaying symptoms. You can be symptomless yet be able to pass on the virus. The disparity between those tested and those who should be tested is probably larger in the US than almost anywhere.

What the figures will be in a week's time, or a month? It is just a wild guess but they are likely to make today's figure seem very small.

Here's the thing about the numbers... no matter how frequently you test, there will ALWAYS be those who are infected and don't know it. Those people will infect others who also don't know they're infected.

The ONLY way to know the number of infected at any moment in time is to test the entire population at the exact same time and get immediate results. Results which will change in minutes as those who are infected will infect either the test takers or others waiting in line and who won't show as infected on that particular test cycle.

The end analysis is that it's not the sheer number of people who are infected that matters. It's how you treat those who show symptoms severe enough to need medical intervention.

Once you have a treatment or cure or immunization, it doesn't matter who or how many catch it. Just like with influenza, plague, diphtheria, rubella, and so on.

 

[Fuzzy1975]

Lol. Seriously, man up you little pussy and quit sniveling about how we're all gonna die. You don't conquer fear by giving in to it.

From there:

The population of the US is 327.17 million.

The population of Iran is 82 million.


OF FUCKING COURSE we're going to have higher contagion numbers. The US has 4 times the population as Iran. Even if the the virus runs rampant in Iran because of their fucked up Mullahs telling people to congregate and lick holy artifacts, we'll STILL probably have higher levels just from the population difference.

Sheesh, you're a maroon.

19,382 cases of infected in the US

higher population means a higher death count too Arpy...

One thing I have seen on this board is when people throw out insults here, they are usually using a fear they themselves feel....

Feeling your mortality ????

Chuckles

 

[jaF0]

19,285 infected in the US 250 dead,

How many of 'em voted for Donnie?

 

[Fuzzy1975]

But when testing is so slow and so erratic the true numbers are unknown, as they are in almost all countries because those being tested are only those displaying symptoms. You can be symptomless yet be able to pass on the virus. The disparity between those tested and those who should be tested is probably larger in the US than almost anywhere.

What the figures will be in a week's time, or a month? It is just a wild guess but they are likely to make today's figure seem very small.

If you compare the curve from Italy infection rate from three weeks ago, to how it compares to the curve now showing in the US, it is only a matter of a week or so before the US eclipses China.

Canada still has a chance to flatten the curve, but we have been testing extensively. Though due to a worldwide shortage of swabs we have had to curtail that back, for the time being.

Looking at the UK numbers, it is hard to say if the infection rate will take off there too. I hope not, seems like Boris got the message.

 

[HisArpy]

19,382 cases of infected in the US

higher population means a higher death count too Arpy...

And?

How does this change anything? Most thinking people already recognize that the number will be high. But, rather than screaming mindlessly in fear about it like you are, they've accepted it and have made plans to deal with it if it happens to them.

You, OTOH, are acting like it's an instant death sentence. It's not. It never was and we're getting a handle on how to treat it. So, quit panicking already. You're not doing yourself or anyone else any favors.

One thing I have seen on this board is when people throw out insults here, they are usually using a fear they themselves feel....

Feeling your mortality ????

Chuckles

I'll think of you while I'm out there meeting people without wearing a hazmat suit. Maybe the thought of you scared shitless will remind me to practice social distancing.

On second thought, I probably won't bother to think of you at all. As usual.

 

[HisArpy]

How many of 'em voted for Donnie?

Does it matter?

 

[jaF0]

Does it matter?

Yup. Might be less of 'em this time.

 

[HisArpy]

Yup. Might be less of 'em this time.

So, you put politics over human life?

 

[jaF0]

I put dumpin' The Don at the top of every list.

 

[icanhelp1]

Good job on the C&P fake news.

Do you have anything to add to the conversation or are you just stirring the pot?

Me thinks he got a google button stuck up his ass

 

[HisArpy]

I put dumpin' The Don at the top of every list.

Which is why you're going to be disappointed in November.

 

[Fuzzy1975]

And?

How does this change anything? Most thinking people already recognize that the number will be high. But, rather than screaming mindlessly in fear about it like you are, they've accepted it and have made plans to deal with it if it happens to them.

I am not screaming mindlessly, I am pointing out Trump fucked it up!
Now there will thousands and thousands of needless deaths in the US, both from COVID-19, and those people who will die from lack of a hospital bed.

You, OTOH, are acting like it's an instant death sentence. It's not. It never was and we're getting a handle on how to treat it. So, quit panicking already. You're not doing yourself or anyone else any favors.

I have never said it was a death sentence, you on the other hand have diminished the mortality of the virus from day one. Currently it is at 3.4 % which in the US will account for well over a million deaths. Is that worth panicking over? A 1 in 327 chance of dying in 11 days from on set of symptoms?

I keep putting out the facts, then you accuse me of A being panicked, and B being scared of dying from it...chuckles...thanks for the laugh.

I'll think of you while I'm out there meeting people without wearing a hazmat suit. Maybe the thought of you scared shitless will remind me to practice social distancing.

you keep on doing that. I will go out, when A I need to, or B I feel like a walk. If you follow the hand-washing rule, stay 6 ' away from people, and carry hand santitiser with you and be conscious of not touching your face, you can minimize the risk of contagion.

On second thought, I probably won't bother to think of you at all. As usual.

Like I care?

19,393 infected 256 deaths.

 

[Hugh_Essay]

https://i.redd.it/bcrgkmtb4wn41.jpg