Jose', can you sea?

[jaF0]

Tropical Storm Jose Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017

...10TH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 39.1W
ABOUT 1505 MI...2420 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

 

[jaF0]

Some early talk of this taking a similar path to Irma and being another 'one to watch'.

 

[richard_daily]

Global warming at work...

What you reap, you shall sow.

 

[jaF0]

What you reap, you shall sow.

Momma's pissed at US for the Coronation of the Orangutan.

 

[Hypoxia]

Momma's pissed at US for the Coronation of the Orangutan.

Momma Nature don't give a fat rat's ass about USA politics. Momma Nature just does her thang... boosted by all we've done to her. Naw, Momma Nature just blowing off steam. And Houston. And Miami. And...

PS: Momma Nature gonna keep on doing her thang. Whether humans are around to witness it is another matter.

 

[jaF0]

Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2017

...JOSE EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY FRIDAY...
...WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 50.6W
ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
islands of Antigua and Barbuda.

The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
islands of Anguilla, Montserrat, St Kitts, and Nevis.

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for the islands of Saba and St. Eustatius

Some of these places were just scrubbed by Irma and now Jose' is coming in to finish the job.

 

[Colonel Hogan]

Global warming at work...

What you reap, you shall sow.

Yeah. Because we never had hurricanes before people started driving cars.

 

[richard_daily]

Yeah. Because we never had hurricanes before people started driving cars.

Well, we've certainly never had two of the worst hurricanes ever recorded, back-to-back within two weeks of each other.

But I guess that's just coincidence?

 

[Colonel Hogan]

Well, we've certainly never had two of the worst hurricanes ever recorded, back-to-back within two weeks of each other.

But I guess that's just coincidence?

Never? Really? You checked? And then you scientifically correlated that fact with global warming as a demonstrable CAUSE???

Wow! Is there a meteorological equivalent to the Noble Prize? Where in the basement will you display it?

 

[richard_daily]

Never? Really? You checked? And then you scientifically correlated that fact with global warming as a demonstrable CAUSE???

Wow! Is there a meteorological equivalent to the Noble Prize? Where in the basement will you display it?

Last week three times the water of Katrina (the second worst on record), now two weeks later, we have a Cat 5 worse than the Great Labor Day storm of 1935... so yes, I checked.

So if it's not climate change, what's your explanation? Just random occurrence?

Houston has had 3 500 year hurricanes in 5 years.

Just random chance?

You should play the lotto.

 

[Hypoxia]

Higher ocean temperatures ==> more energy in the hydrosphere ==> bigger and badder storms. (Hydrosphere includes sea and sky.)

The overwhelming consensus of climatologists and planetary scientists holds that industrial civilization has been a major factor in recent global temperature rise. We ain't doing it all ourselves but we're contributing. And we may be heading into a death spiral. How bad could it get? Observe Venus.

Does human activity cause superstorms? No, but we punch-em up real nice. Does human activity worsen the effects of storms? Yes, by building in buffer zones that should be left clear to absorb storm impacts. Are we doomed to see ever-deadlier storms? Yes, unless we get orbital solar mirrors in place to direct the paths of storms. Till then, we're fucked.

 

[Colonel Hogan]

Last week three times the water of Katrina (the second worst on record), now two weeks later, we have a Cat 5 worse than the Great Labor Day storm of 1935... so yes, I checked.

So if it's not climate change, what's your explanation? Just random occurrence?

Houston has had 3 500 year hurricanes in 5 years.

Just random chance?

You should play the lotto.

Really? According to Wiki, Harvey was the first Cat 4 hurricane to make landfall in Texas since Carla in 1961. So, what were those 500-year storms you're talking about? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Texas_hurricanes_(1980%E2%80%93present)

And Harvey was as bad as it was because it came to a grinding halt and parked over the same basic spot for three or four days. You're going to blame that on global warming?

 

[BB4evah]

Me? I blame Harvey Irma Obama

 

[richard_daily]

Really? According to Wiki, Harvey was the first Cat 4 hurricane to make landfall in Texas since Carla in 1961. So, what were those 500-year storms you're talking about? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Texas_hurricanes_(1980%E2%80%93present)

And Harvey was as bad as it was because it came to a grinding halt and parked over the same basic spot for three or four days. You're going to blame that on global warming?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-how-is-that-possible/?utm_term=.b5e227bac68e

Practically speaking, that means you can have multiple 500-year flood events happen essentially back-to-back. Indeed, that appears to be happening in Houston right now, with the flooding in 2015, 2016 and today.

 

[Colonel Hogan]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-how-is-that-possible/?utm_term=.b5e227bac68e

Unfortunately, I cannot read that link because I refuse to pay the Washington Post for the privilege. I get most of my news from distribution outlets supported almost solely by advertising revenue -- particularly on the non-capital intensive internet.

 

[richard_daily]

Unfortunately, I cannot read that link because I refuse to pay the Washington Post for the privilege. I get most of my news from distribution outlets supported almost solely by advertising revenue -- particularly on the non-capital intensive internet.

Basically, 3 500 year floods (not hurricanes, so my mistake) in the last 3 years (not 5 as I originally stated).

That's not normal.

Hurricane Harvey has brought “500-year” rainfall and flood conditions to the Houston area, according to officials at the Harris County Flood Control District.

As of August 31, widespread areas around Houston have experienced flooding reaching 1,000-year thresholds or more.

But 500-year floods, as it turns out, happen more frequently than you might expect. The Houston area alone has seen no fewer than three such events in the past three years, according to local officials: Memorial Day floods in 2015 and 2016, followed by Hurricane Harvey's torrential rains this year.

 

[adrina]

Just one at a time please. Let me get through this one first then I'll think about Jose.

 

[Colonel Hogan]

Basically, 3 500 year floods (not hurricanes, so my mistake) in the last 3 years (not 5 as I originally stated).

That's not normal.

I'm certain it isn't, but as I noted, in at least the most recent case, there is nothing 'normal' about a hurricane moving across the Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico and then coming to a dead stop for three days as soon as it makes landfall, nor is there anything about that specific abnormality attributable to global warming.

 

[doowdniw]

Global warming at work...

What you reap, you shall sow.

What?? No!! That's just a hoax created by the Chinese, don't you know?

 

[richard_daily]

I'm certain it isn't, but as I noted, in at least the most recent case, there is nothing 'normal' about a hurricane moving across the Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico and then coming to a dead stop for three days as soon as it makes landfall, nor is there anything about that specific abnormality attributable to global warming.

Every scientist contacted by National Geographic was in agreement that the volume of rain from Harvey was almost certainly driven up by temperature increases from human carbon-dioxide emissions.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/08/hurricane-harvey-climate-change-global-warming-weather/

 

[Colonel Hogan]

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/08/hurricane-harvey-climate-change-global-warming-weather/

From your link:

And while scientists maintain that no single weather event can be attributed to climate change, two centuries of human fossil-fuel burning has altered temperatures just enough to almost certainly make this particular storm worse.

In other words: "while denying the very scientific premise for our conclusion, we will go ahead and conclude it anyway."

Which is precisely why these partisans are ridiculed for the very partisanship they display under the thinly veiled disguise of science.

And it's even worse "journalism."

 

[richard_daily]

From your link:



In other words: "while denying the very scientific premise for our conclusion, we will go ahead and conclude it anyway."

Which is precisely why these partisans are ridiculed for the very partisanship they display under the thinly veiled disguise of science.

And it's even worse "journalism."

No, what they are saying is that: "we can't say that 500,000 cars caused this storm to be unusually bad, but it's very likely that cars caused this storm to be worse than usual."

The problem here, is that the scientists are being honest. They don't have definitive proof that there is a single cause to climate change, but there is overwhelming evidence that climate change is occurring, and that it's man-made.

Again, if not man-made, why is this all happening a little over a century after the industrial revolution? Why not 200 years ago, or 1000 years ago?

 

[Hypoxia]

Global warming. We observe it happening. Who to blame? Blame people or the sun or orbital eccentricity or space aliens / hostile deities or whatever.

Global warming. We observe it happening. We observe human impact of weather disasters, mostly at sites that shouldn't have been built on, that should have been left open to absorb weather impacts. We're just fucking ourselves.

Ancient civilizations knew to leave buffers -- at least, the sites that didn't wash away. Modern developers build wherever they can sell stuff -- after maybe bribing local officials to ignore zoning and planning and EIRs and all that restrictive unprofitable shit. Cheap stuff is built in low, swampy place, great for sticking poor folks who can afford no better. So they get washed away. Too bad.

Earth is not cooling. Hydrosphere energy increases. Bigger, badder storms. Oy.

 

[Colonel Hogan]

No, what they are saying is that: "we can't say that 500,000 cars caused this storm to be unusually bad, but it's very likely that cars caused this storm to be worse than usual."

The problem here, is that the scientists are being honest. They don't have definitive proof that there is a single cause to climate change, but there is overwhelming evidence that climate change is occurring, and that it's man-made.

Again, if not man-made, why is this all happening a little over a century after the industrial revolution? Why not 200 years ago, or 1000 years ago?

You and no one else has a shit of an idea what happened 1,000 years ago or even 200 years ago in Florida or Texas because weather records weren't kept. And there wasn't shit in the way of property to be destroyed.

But if you want to play that silly game, there is this:

No humans were around to make permanent records of prehistoric hurricanes. But Kerry Emanuel, professor of meteorology at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, thinks conditions may have existed about 65 million years ago that could have spawned prehistoric hypercanes far more powerful than modern storms.

Researchers have discovered clues from more recent hurricanes dating back only a few thousand years.

Kam-biu Liu, a geology professor at Louisiana State University, discovered ocean sand in core samples from inland lakes on the coast of the Gulf of Mexico. From these samples, Liu concluded that extremely powerful hurricanes battered the Gulf Coast and dumped the sand into the lakes.

Liu thinks the core samples indicate that hurricanes that would be considered catastrophic by modern standards were regularly battering the Gulf Coast thousands of years ago.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2005/01/0128_050128_tv_hurricane_2.html

 

[Ishmael]

No, what they are saying is that: "we can't say that 500,000 cars caused this storm to be unusually bad, but it's very likely that cars caused this storm to be worse than usual."

The problem here, is that the scientists are being honest. They don't have definitive proof that there is a single cause to climate change, but there is overwhelming evidence that climate change is occurring, and that it's man-made.

Again, if not man-made, why is this all happening a little over a century after the industrial revolution? Why not 200 years ago, or 1000 years ago?

The ignorant can say anything. And the equally ignorant will give it credibility.

You, obviously, have bought into the premise that man is to blame for these storms. It logically follows that if man is to blame, man can cure. And there is the government, like priests of old, demanding alms to make all of our ills to go away. Slavery by degrees with God being replaced by hoard of unnamed bureaucrats living in a swamp.

Science that demands obedience is not science, it's a religion.

Ishmael