The Trump Campaign #2: The Best Thread On The GB, Believe Me

[Beco]

Tim Kaine, aka The Great Interrupter, is a real creepy sucker....and also a real dick

I'd vote for Pence for Prez....

 

[toubab]

When You Hear the Margin of Error Is Plus or Minus 3 Percent, Think 7 Instead

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/06/u...instead.html?smid=tw-upshotnyt&smtyp=cur&_r=0

"As anyone who follows election polling can tell you, when you survey 1,000 people, the margin of error is plus or minus three percentage points. This roughly means that 95 percent of the time, the survey estimate should be within three percentage points of the true answer.

If 54 percent of people support Hillary Clinton, the survey estimate might be as high as 57 percent or as low as 51 percent, but it is unlikely to be 49 percent. This truism of modern polling, heralded as one of the great success stories of statistics, is included in textbooks and taught in college classes, including our own.

But the real-world margin of error of election polls is not three percentage points. It is about twice as big.

In a new paper with Andrew Gelman and Houshmand Shirani-Mehr, we examined 4,221 late-campaign polls — every public poll we could find — for 608 state-level presidential, Senate and governor’s races between 1998 and 2014. Comparing those polls’ results with actual electoral results, we find the historical margin of error is plus or minus six to seven percentage points. (Yes, that’s an error range of 12 to 14 points, not the typically reported 6 or 7.)"


Interesting article, especially if you think polls are accurate, or even if you think they aren't.

 

[sr71plt]

Interesting article, especially if you think polls are accurate, or even if you think they aren't.

And especially if you have a lot of time on your hands to obsess over something you have no control over and you're just marking time until something real happens.

 

[toubab]

And especially if you have a lot of time on your hands to obsess over something you have no control over and you're just marking time until something real happens.

Well, it's as good a way to mark time until the election as any, the way I see it. I make the polls interesting for myself by trying to figure out what will happen with them before it happens. Especially in the case of the USC/LA Times poll, a favorite, which I figure will show a small improvement for Trump and a small decline for Clinton at the next reporting of results, occurring in about four hours. If it doesn't show such results I will consider that a very bad sign for Trump, particularly in view of last night's debate.

 

[Porkwarrior]

Well, it's as good a way to mark time until the election as any, the way I see it. I make the polls interesting for myself by trying to figure out what will happen with them before it happens. Especially in the case of the USC/LA Times poll, a favorite, which I figure will show a small improvement for Trump and a small decline for Clinton at the next reporting of results, occurring in about four hours. If it doesn't show such results I will consider that a very bad sign for Trump, particularly in view of last night's debate.

He does that, just ignore him.
And can't accept a Trump POTUS. Shame that it's all but inevitable at this point.
Afterall, when was the last Veep that mattered? Oh right, none.

 

[toubab]

USC/LA Times poll

http://cesrusc.org/election/

Trump 46.6

Clinton 42.6

 

[Saint Peter]

Vegas


Next President of the United States of America

Odds as of October 4 at Bovada

Hillary Clinton -333
Donald Trump +250
Other +2000

 

[IrezumiKiss]

South Pacific


Next President of the United States of America

Odds as of October 5 at R'lyeh

Hillary Clinton +98.657849
Donald Trump -0.578963
Cthulhu +456,068,300

http://i.imgur.com/5GiSZsR.jpg

 

[Adre]

Nate is bumping HRC daily, now up to 76%.

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/06/u...-plus-or-minus-3-percent-think-7-instead.html

For toubab

 

[RobDownSouth]

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/06/u...-plus-or-minus-3-percent-think-7-instead.html

For toubab

Statistics are HARD!

What we need are Unskewed Polls, so we can draw our own unbiased conclusions (or "conclussions" in Ish-speak).


....oh wait.....

 

[Adre]

Correspondent Allana Harkin said to one conspiracy-convinced Trump loyalist in a “Make America Great Again” cap, “So it’s rigged if Hillary wins but not rigged if Trump wins?”
“Exactly,” the man replied.
“Isn’t that like saying any woman who doesn’t want to date you is a lesbian?” Harkin asked.
“Exactly,” the man repeated.


[You can't make this stuff up.]

 

[xbb]

http://cesrusc.org/election/

Trump 46.6

Clinton 42.6

this is the only poll that shows him ahead

STOP

 

[Adre]

this is the only poll that shows him ahead

STOP

Note that 2boob is avoiding Nate Silver like the plague. Wonder why.

 

[xbb]

Sick Hillary? Clinton Won’t Attend Any Rallies For Over 2 Weeks

At the height of the presidential race, Hillary is taking it easy


Aside from the debates, Hillary Clinton won’t appear at any public events or rallies for over 2 weeks – at the height of the presidential race – suggesting that her health problems could be worsening.

Yawn! Trump POLAROIDS!

 

[xbb]

Michelle Obama at Hillary rally: “We need someone who’s honest and plays by the rules.” I think she attended the wrong rally!

 

[Adre]

Sick Hillary? Clinton Won’t Attend Any Rallies For Over 2 Weeks

At the height of the presidential race, Hillary is taking it easy


Aside from the debates, Hillary Clinton won’t appear at any public events or rallies for over 2 weeks – at the height of the presidential race – suggesting that her health problems could be worsening.

Yawn! Trump POLAROIDS!

That makes sense. Appear at two debates and wait for the election. What good does a rally do at this point? Minds are made up.

 

[xbb]

every election minds are made up

when has any other candidate done this?

we know why

you know why

BUT

you are IN DEPENDS

 

[Adre]

every election minds are made up

when has any other candidate done this?

we know why

you know why

BUT

you are IN DEPENDS

Yes, I know why. When things are going well...do no harm.

 

[Hypoxia]

Used to be, fortune-telling was illegal in most jurisdictions.

Projections, forecasts, polls -- all types of fortune-telling.

Would the country be better off without such witchcraft?

 

[phrodeau]

Used to be, fortune-telling was illegal in most jurisdictions.

Projections, forecasts, polls -- all types of fortune-telling.

Would the country be better off without such witchcraft?

If the pros stop making forecasts, then only amateurs will make them.

 

[Aglaopheme]

Nate is bumping HRC daily, now up to 76%.

77.4% to be exact.

 

[Wrong Element]

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/06/u...instead.html?smid=tw-upshotnyt&smtyp=cur&_r=0

"As anyone who follows election polling can tell you, when you survey 1,000 people, the margin of error is plus or minus three percentage points. This roughly means that 95 percent of the time, the survey estimate should be within three percentage points of the true answer.

If 54 percent of people support Hillary Clinton, the survey estimate might be as high as 57 percent or as low as 51 percent, but it is unlikely to be 49 percent. This truism of modern polling, heralded as one of the great success stories of statistics, is included in textbooks and taught in college classes, including our own.

But the real-world margin of error of election polls is not three percentage points. It is about twice as big.

In a new paper with Andrew Gelman and Houshmand Shirani-Mehr, we examined 4,221 late-campaign polls — every public poll we could find — for 608 state-level presidential, Senate and governor’s races between 1998 and 2014. Comparing those polls’ results with actual electoral results, we find the historical margin of error is plus or minus six to seven percentage points. (Yes, that’s an error range of 12 to 14 points, not the typically reported 6 or 7.)"


Interesting article, especially if you think polls are accurate, or even if you think they aren't.

I'm curious as to why the researchers are tossing together midterm elections and presidential-year elections as if they're basically the same thing. I don't have the data in front of me, but just from my memory it sure does seem that there are a lot more major polling errors in midterms than in elections that take place in presidential years, where the turnouts are substantially higher.

There's no question pollsters have had to adjust to the gradual disappearance of landlines, and the increasing reluctance of pretty much everyone to answer the phone. I would surmise that we started seeing more bad poll calls as cell phones became more prominent, and pollsters were slow to recognize that it was affecting their data.

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

this is the only poll that shows him ahead

STOP

lol

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

Sick Hillary? Clinton Won’t Attend Any Rallies For Over 2 Weeks

At the height of the presidential race, Hillary is taking it easy


Aside from the debates, Hillary Clinton won’t appear at any public events or rallies for over 2 weeks – at the height of the presidential race – suggesting that her health problems could be worsening.

Yawn! Trump POLAROIDS!

For the health conspiracy nuts:

http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2016/10/what_is_hillarys_pep_pill_.html