The Trump Campaign #2: The Best Thread On The GB, Believe Me

[Adre]

I heard she had to cancel in order to meet with the people who will be redoing the drapes in the OO.

 

[BoyNextDoor]

Just came across this. Some may find it interesting:

https://www.peoplespunditdaily.com/news/elections/2016/10/02/defense-la-times-poll/

"After nearly a week of interviews conducted after the first presidential debate, Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton by roughly 5 points in the LA Times Poll, 46.9% to 42.2%. TV pundits have stuck to conventional political wisdom, despite the fact it has failed them at every turn this election cycle.

As a result, the LA Times Poll has been taking even more heat than it has in the previous several weeks, which is really saying something.

You may find FiveThirtyEight's take interesting as well. I think this is pretty much the best summation/defense I have read of of the LA Times Poll (somewhat of a long read) and the "house effects".

Election Update: Leave The LA Times Poll Alone!

http://i0.wp.com/espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2016/08/silver-electionupdate-0823-41.png?quality=90&strip=all&w=575&ssl=1

As you can see, the LA Times poll has the strongest house effect of any major pollster: a raw house effect of about 6 points in Trump’s direction, or a discounted one of about 4 points. Other Internet-based polls have been a mixed bag. The UPI/CVoter tracking poll has also been Trump-leaning. Ipsos/Reuters formerly had a strong Clinton-leaning house effect but, after a methodology change, it has pretty much gone away.5 Other prolific online polling firms, such as Morning Consult, YouGov and SurveyMonkey, don’t have strong house effects.

All the major automated polling firms6 have Trump-leaning house effects, ranging from moderate to severe, especially in the case of Rasmussen Reports and Gravis Marketing, which have longstanding GOP-leaning house effects. You might also notice that the various daily and weekly tracking polls, which are either online or automated polls, are mostly a Trump-leaning bunch. We haven’t had a lot of national polls lately other than the tracking polls, so that’s one reason our national polling average and others that adjust for house effects show a slightly wider margin for Clinton right now than those that don’t.

 

[BoyNextDoor]

Did Hillary cancel her joint appearance with Bernie because of what she said about his voters or because of her health?

Assange has also cancelled the "October Surprise" - coincidence?

http://www.infomine.com/ChartsAndData/GraphEngine.ashx?z=f&gf=145510.USD.t&dr=1w

 

[phrodeau]

502 Bad Gateway

awselb/2.0

A third world problem.

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

You may find FiveThirtyEight's take interesting as well. I think this is pretty much the best summation/defense I have read of of the LA Times Poll (somewhat of a long read) and the "house effects".

Election Update: Leave The LA Times Poll Alone!

http://i0.wp.com/espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2016/08/silver-electionupdate-0823-41.png?quality=90&strip=all&w=575&ssl=1

As you can see, the LA Times poll has the strongest house effect of any major pollster: a raw house effect of about 6 points in Trump’s direction, or a discounted one of about 4 points. Other Internet-based polls have been a mixed bag. The UPI/CVoter tracking poll has also been Trump-leaning. Ipsos/Reuters formerly had a strong Clinton-leaning house effect but, after a methodology change, it has pretty much gone away.5 Other prolific online polling firms, such as Morning Consult, YouGov and SurveyMonkey, don’t have strong house effects.

All the major automated polling firms6 have Trump-leaning house effects, ranging from moderate to severe, especially in the case of Rasmussen Reports and Gravis Marketing, which have longstanding GOP-leaning house effects. You might also notice that the various daily and weekly tracking polls, which are either online or automated polls, are mostly a Trump-leaning bunch. We haven’t had a lot of national polls lately other than the tracking polls, so that’s one reason our national polling average and others that adjust for house effects show a slightly wider margin for Clinton right now than those that don’t.

Then again, the live call polls, might be under the influence of the Bradley Effect.

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

Assange has also cancelled the "October Surprise" - coincidence?

...

As far as we know, it is just a postponement...

*shrug*

 

[xbb]

NON-LEGAL STRATEGIES: Under Intense Pressure to Silence Wikileaks, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton Proposed Drone Strike on Julian Assange.

“Can’t we just drone this guy?” Clinton openly inquired, offering a simple remedy to silence Assange and smother Wikileaks via a planned military drone strike, according to State Department sources. The statement drew laughter from the room which quickly died off when the Secretary kept talking in a terse manner, sources said. Clinton said Assange, after all, was a relatively soft target, “walking around” freely and thumbing his nose without any fear of reprisals from the United States. Clinton was upset about Assange’s previous 2010 records releases, divulging secret U.S. documents about the war in Afghanistan in July and the war in Iraq just a month earlier in October, sources said. At that time in 2010, Assange was relatively free and not living cloistered in in the embassy of Ecuador in London. Prior to 2010, Assange focused Wikileaks’ efforts on countries outside the United States but now under Clinton and Obama, Assange was hammering America with an unparalleled third sweeping Wikileaks document dump in five months. Clinton was fuming, sources said, as each State Department cable dispatched during the Obama administration was signed by her.

Clinton and other top administration officials knew the compromising materials warehoused in the CableGate stash would provide critics and foreign enemies with a treasure trove of counterintelligence. Bureaucratic fears about the CableGate release ultimately proved to be well founded by Clinton, her inner circle and her boss in the White House.

“Non-legal strategies” was brought up in a 2010 email from State Department Director of Policy Planning Anne-Marie Slaughter, addressed to then Secretary of State Clinton, Huma Abedin, Cheryl Mills, and Jacob Sullivan. Presumably it was sent to Clinton’s private and unsecured email address, and in the hands of foreign intelligence almost immediately

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

Another point to ponder is what will be the nature of the next administration.

President Clinton's will be purely partisan working with the goal of strengthening the grip of the Democrat Party on government, and thus the people. It will be staffed at the very top levels by the same people who aided her in skirting laws and scandals and as such is guaranteed to be corrupt and under the thumb of cronies and crony Capitalism. If you are voting for her because she appears to be "prepared" for debates and campaigning, at least be honest about what you are voting for.

President Trump, on the other hand, I believe will select the people whom he things are the best fit to advance America as a whole and will not be at all beholden to the hard-core elements of the Republican Party. I think he is likely to be pretty broad-minded when it comes to the people he picks. Now, if you are voting against him because he is not a prepared, polished life-long politician, so be it, but you still have to be honest that you are enabling corruption in government on a scale possibly never before seen in American politics.

 

[xbb]

Trump fades in Morning Consult series, trails by 7

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

NON-LEGAL STRATEGIES: Under Intense Pressure to Silence Wikileaks, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton Proposed Drone Strike on Julian Assange.

“Can’t we just drone this guy?” Clinton openly inquired, offering a simple remedy to silence Assange and smother Wikileaks via a planned military drone strike, according to State Department sources. The statement drew laughter from the room which quickly died off when the Secretary kept talking in a terse manner, sources said. Clinton said Assange, after all, was a relatively soft target, “walking around” freely and thumbing his nose without any fear of reprisals from the United States. Clinton was upset about Assange’s previous 2010 records releases, divulging secret U.S. documents about the war in Afghanistan in July and the war in Iraq just a month earlier in October, sources said. At that time in 2010, Assange was relatively free and not living cloistered in in the embassy of Ecuador in London. Prior to 2010, Assange focused Wikileaks’ efforts on countries outside the United States but now under Clinton and Obama, Assange was hammering America with an unparalleled third sweeping Wikileaks document dump in five months. Clinton was fuming, sources said, as each State Department cable dispatched during the Obama administration was signed by her.

Clinton and other top administration officials knew the compromising materials warehoused in the CableGate stash would provide critics and foreign enemies with a treasure trove of counterintelligence. Bureaucratic fears about the CableGate release ultimately proved to be well founded by Clinton, her inner circle and her boss in the White House.

“Non-legal strategies” was brought up in a 2010 email from State Department Director of Policy Planning Anne-Marie Slaughter, addressed to then Secretary of State Clinton, Huma Abedin, Cheryl Mills, and Jacob Sullivan. Presumably it was sent to Clinton’s private and unsecured email address, and in the hands of foreign intelligence almost immediately

Just to take him off ignore for many of you...

 

[Aglaopheme]

Assange has also cancelled the "October Surprise" - coincidence?

http://www.infomine.com/ChartsAndData/GraphEngine.ashx?z=f&gf=145510.USD.t&dr=1w

Did he?

 

[Aglaopheme]

https://www.google.com/amp/uproxx.c...ncels-announcement-clinton/amp/?client=safari

But on Sunday, Rodriguez revealed that Assange had decided to make a Tuesday announcement via live video link in a Berlin press conference. Will this be the same big announcement, and does this have anything to do with a Clinton-related data dump? Stone’s suggestion is whatever is planned by WikiLeaks will have a huge Wednesday impact on the Clinton campaign. We’ll have to wait until Tuesday to find out, but Assange sure loves the drama.

 

[snugglestruggle]

From the closed thread

Bottany Boy wrote

Same way GMO labeling, Healthcare reform, ending the wars in the middle east and restoring the civil rights evil Bush destroyed....toss them right the fuck out the window.

She won't do shit, we will get more war, reduced economic opportunities, more wealth inequality and more civil unrest.

http://forum.literotica.com/showpost.php?p=80877736&postcount=4988

Definitely more civil unrest because she will make things worst, not better. She is an incompetent, Sickly, ill-tempered, power mad bitch that wants to be the 1st female president. It's not about shattering a glass ceiling for women, it's all about her. Sorta like Trump, except she is far less entertaining and is owned lock, stock and barrel by the Globalists.

Obama said it best http://www.snopes.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/nothing.jpg

 

[phrodeau]

http://forum.literotica.com/showpost.php?p=80878056&postcount=4993

Let's see... BotanyBoy argues that only the government can use force against its citizens, and businesses cannot use force against the government.

SgtSpiderMan brings up Donald Trump's effort to get President Obama to produce his birth certificate.

BotanyBoy repeatedly claims that Trump didn't use force, and we go through definitions until he seems to have lost track of the topic.

One question: If members of government know how to use force and businesses do not, why should a business person be given a government position? Is a person like Donald Trump going to know what to do with the H-bombs in the B-52's?

 

[phrodeau]

Bottany Boy wrote

http://forum.literotica.com/showpost.php?p=80877736&postcount=4988

Definitely more civil unrest because she will make things worst, not better. She is an incompetent, Sickly, ill-tempered, power mad bitch that wants to be the 1st female president. It's not about shattering a glass ceiling for women, it's all about her. Sorta like Trump, except she is far less entertaining and is owned lock, stock and barrel by the Globalists.

Obama said it best http://www.snopes.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/nothing.jpg

Let's compare word usage between Hillary and Donald.

When it comes to Trump’s rhetoric, what is perhaps most striking is the frequency with which he references himself. He says I, me, or my 850 times in these seven speeches. (He says I 700 times, me 94 times, my 56 times, mine 5 times, and myself 2 times out of the total 25,722 words in the corpus.) What this means is that 3.3% of his words are self-references, which is a remarkably high figure by the standards of any typical corpus.

By way of comparison, Clinton says I 360 times, me 36 times, and my 52 times out of the total 23,089 words, bringing the total percentage of explicit self-references to 1.9%.

http://www.patheos.com/blogs/anxiousbench/2016/07/donald-trump-and-hillary-clinton-by-their-words/

 

[Adre]

At the right price, I might even be a buyer of gold.

And what's the right price?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-30/swiss-vaults

Ask these guys...

I asked you. Give me a number.

12


:shrug:

Ahm huntin’ Wabbit

SSSSSSSshhhhh... be vewy vewy qwiet. Ahm huntin' wascaws...

Hey AJ. Here's my vicious "attack" that provoked you to post my picture.

From now on you shall be "AJ the Aggrieved"

 

[snugglestruggle]

Let's compare word usage between Hillary and Donald.

http://www.patheos.com/blogs/anxiousbench/2016/07/donald-trump-and-hillary-clinton-by-their-words/

None of which refutes anything I said. She is a power mad, ill-tempered, sickly , accomplice to her rapist husband, that doesn't give a rats ass about women and the glass ceiling. In one respect she and Trump are the same... ego.

 

[Wrong Element]

I'm loving this current title.

 

[Wrong Element]

How about ....

The Trump Campaign #2: The Best Thread On The GB, Believe Me

 

[girlsmiley]

Hey AJ. Here's my vicious "attack" that provoked you to post my picture.

From now on you shall be "AJ the Aggrieved"

That's nice. How about "AJ The Triggered Cunt"?

 

[Adre]

That's nice. How about "AJ The Triggered Cunt"?

That could work. Hi sweetcheeks.

 

[toubab]

You may find FiveThirtyEight's take interesting as well. I think this is pretty much the best summation/defense I have read of of the LA Times Poll (somewhat of a long read) and the "house effects".

Election Update: Leave The LA Times Poll Alone!

http://i0.wp.com/espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2016/08/silver-electionupdate-0823-41.png?quality=90&strip=all&w=575&ssl=1

As you can see, the LA Times poll has the strongest house effect of any major pollster: a raw house effect of about 6 points in Trump’s direction, or a discounted one of about 4 points. Other Internet-based polls have been a mixed bag. The UPI/CVoter tracking poll has also been Trump-leaning. Ipsos/Reuters formerly had a strong Clinton-leaning house effect but, after a methodology change, it has pretty much gone away.5 Other prolific online polling firms, such as Morning Consult, YouGov and SurveyMonkey, don’t have strong house effects.

All the major automated polling firms6 have Trump-leaning house effects, ranging from moderate to severe, especially in the case of Rasmussen Reports and Gravis Marketing, which have longstanding GOP-leaning house effects. You might also notice that the various daily and weekly tracking polls, which are either online or automated polls, are mostly a Trump-leaning bunch. We haven’t had a lot of national polls lately other than the tracking polls, so that’s one reason our national polling average and others that adjust for house effects show a slightly wider margin for Clinton right now than those that don’t.

I remember reading that back in August. It is interesting, yes, but all Silver is really saying is how much each poll deviates from the average of polls of its type. The problem with that is the USC/LA Times poll is unique in its methodology, so cannot be compared to other polls fairly. Silver realizes this, of course, but still insists on giving a "house effect" to the poll.

We will know about a week after the election how reliable/accurate the USC/LA Times poll's methodology is, but not before.

 

[RoryN]

Bam..

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/201...-ordered-new-york-ag-stop-fundraising-n658651

 

[phrodeau]

Bam..

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/201...-ordered-new-york-ag-stop-fundraising-n658651

Now he'll never get his home state electoral votes.

 

[Beco]

So many missed opportunities and frankly, it still might not matter but its what most will dwell on....

Stop texting at 3AM, in fact, stop texting at all.....

Stop fixating on a broken down ex Ms Universe who ran with a notiorious drug dealer....sheesh. Come on.

I do think the Republicans will give Hillary a hard time. She isnt the most likable person and frankly, she aint Bill. She probably won't move to the middle like he did, and she will be as combative as Obama in working with them.....

another enjoyable 4 more years! Fun....