Here's How Donald Trump Could Become President

[toubab]

I guess this poll may have been pretty accurate, after all

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cn8YjycWcAAKsU1.jpg

 

[toubab]

More evidence of convention bounce

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Gravis_National_July_2016.pdf

Trump 51%

Clinton 49%

First time I've seen Trump over 50%.

 

[toubab]

Definite post-convention bounce

https://uasdata.usc.edu/data/election-poll

Trump 45.1

Clinton 41.7

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

It's JULY!

 

[toubab]

It's JULY!

Yes, it's July, but if Trump got no convention/post convention bounce it would be a very bad sign for him. I've been following presidential elections and associated polling very closely for decades. You may think these polls don't matter, but if you do you're wrong. Millions of dollars are spent on polling, even in July, for a reason.

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

Neither one can get a bounce.

The bounce comes when people tune in to learn about who and what the candidate is.

These two clowns have a 100% Q-rating already. One speech, one show, one barrage of attacks is not going to move the dials very significantly for either one of them.

The only breakout opportunity either one will have will be the debates, assuming that her majesty will actually allow one to take place because it puts her in a position where she could lose, which is why she avoids press conferences as a vampire avoids sunshine and the wicked witch avoids rain.

 

[Adre]

Yes, it's July, but if Trump got no convention/post convention bounce it would be a very bad sign for him. I've been following presidential elections and associated polling very closely for decades. You may think these polls don't matter, but if you do you're wrong. Millions of dollars are spent on polling, even in July, for a reason.

You're looking at the wrong thing, National polls have little meaning. Only a few states matter.

 

[toubab]

You're looking at the wrong thing, National polls have little meaning. Only a few states matter.

Yeah, all this wasted money on national polls.

 

[Ishmael]

Neither one can get a bounce.

The bounce comes when people tune in to learn about who and what the candidate is.

These two clowns have a 100% Q-rating already. One speech, one show, one barrage of attacks is not going to move the dials very significantly for either one of them.

The only breakout opportunity either one will have will be the debates, assuming that her majesty will actually allow one to take place because it puts her in a position where she could lose, which is why she avoids press conferences as a vampire avoids sunshine and the wicked witch avoids rain.

I can hardly wait for those. Especially how much effort the mods will put into trying to protect Hillary from Trump.

Ishmael

 

[Adre]

Yeah, all this wasted money on national polls.

Ask Al Gore.

 

[toubab]

I can hardly wait for those. Especially how much effort the mods will put into trying to protect Hillary from Trump.

Ishmael

I'm looking forward to them also. With great interest.

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

I can hardly wait for those. Especially how much effort the mods will put into trying to protect Hillary from Trump.

Ishmael

I cannot wait to see Trump call them out on it.

​

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

Yeah, all this wasted money on national polls.

As wasted as those millions of dollars invested in the obvious nominee, JEB!



Polling this early is a press looking to invent a narrative because they are terrified of letting the common man form his own opinions with their "handling."

 

[toubab]

Ask Al Gore.

Gore won the popular vote nationally. Yeah, I know he lost some key states, including his home state, oddly enough, costing him the election. But the polls said it would be close, and it was. Razor thin.

 

[toubab]

As wasted as those millions of dollars invested in the obvious nominee, JEB!



Polling this early is a press looking to invent a narrative because they are terrified of letting the common man form his own opinions with their "handling."

A lot of polling is push polling, but not all of it. The USC/LA Times daily poll seems legit to me.

 

[Adre]

Florida, Ohio, NC, Pennsylvania. Forget the rest of the map.

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

A lot of polling is push polling, but not all of it. The USC/LA Times daily poll seems legit to me.

Stop talking to me about that poll.

It is not legitimate and I've explained why.

I will ignore all further commentary by you on the valuable "insights" of this poll...

 

[Saint Peter]

Stop talking to me about that poll.

It is not legitimate and I've explained why.

I will ignore all further commentary by you on the valuable "insights" of this poll...

but but but
american thinker!!!

 

[toubab]

Florida, Ohio, NC, Pennsylvania. Forget the rest of the map.

I understand your point, but these national polls influence the voters in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.

 

[toubab]

Stop talking to me about that poll.

It is not legitimate and I've explained why.

I will ignore all further commentary by you on the valuable "insights" of this poll...

It is legitimate, and I've explained why.

 

[Ishmael]

I cannot wait to see Trump call them out on it.

​

He will, right then, not at some presser later.

And he's going to do his best to provoke Hillary into one of her famous harpy screeches or a coughing fit. He might even be able to provoke a two-fer.

Ishmael

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

I understand your point, but these national polls influence the voters in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.

No, it doesn't. No one is paying attention. It's July.

Now, I will tell you who is being influenced by this poll (Human Action, von Mises) is that set group of people. This poll makes them and their opinions important so that with each poll, they do not give the honest answers of someone caught on the spot without having dwelt upon the questions.

But these people are dwelling on the questions because they are so important in trying to influence the dialog, so they pay more attention, they study more, they read more and they follow more polls, then they form an opinion which they think will make them look as smart as they are important.

You are not getting unfiltered data, you are getting refined data...

I'll stick with the rolling averages of random polling, thank you.

And that's all I have to say about that.

 

[toubab]

No, it doesn't. No one is paying attention. It's July.

Now, I will tell you who is being influenced by this poll (Human Action, von Mises) is that set group of people. This poll makes them and their opinions important so that with each poll, they do not give the honest answers of someone caught on the spot without having dwelt upon the questions.

But these people are dwelling on the questions because they are so important in trying to influence the dialog, so they pay more attention, they study more, they read more and they follow more polls, then they form an opinion which they think will make them look as smart as they are important.

You are not getting unfiltered data, you are getting refined data...

I'll stick with the rolling averages of random polling, thank you.

And that's all I have to say about that.

You already said you were going to ignore me. I hope you mean it this time.

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

On this topic, yes. I don't think you have as firm a grasp on the subject as you think.

You remind me of the monetarist economists who think that if the apply the math of the past to the present that they will get a similar outcome, but they never do because math and historical models cannot predict actual human action.

Similarly, test subjects behave differently when they are being observed than when they do not think they are being observed and studied...

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

...

I believe the Trumpster will win the White House for three simple reasons. One: His name recognition. Two: His connection with the common man. Three: American's disgust with the direction our country is going.

Admittedly, the following anecdotes are not scientific, but I think they are quite telling.

While in the supermarket checkout line, I saw the cover of the National Enquirer with an unflattering photo of Hillary. The headline read, “Crooked Hillary: Corrupt!” in large bold type. Folks, I do not ever recall a tabloid expressing such an in-your-face rebuke of a Democrat politician. Something new is definitely happening this election cycle. The National Enquirer appeals mostly to low-info-voters. Its cover branding Hillary a corrupt political insider could be huge. The cover also plays perfectly into Trump's narrative that voters have been shafted by professional politicians in both parties. “Vote for me, the outsider.”

...

Lloyd Marcus

http://www.americanthinker.com/arti...reasons_why_trump_will_win.html#ixzz4FKLwtabl