Chart and formula showing impact of a one-bomb

[jsmiam]

Since there's always a lot of discussion about how much a one-bomb affects scores, here's a chart that shows exactly how it works. Find the closest cell via row and column, and you can see how much the score will be impacted. As the chart shows, and as you all have seen, a new story with just a few votes is massively impacted, whereas a story with hundreds of votes is impacted less and less as the vote count increases.

The actual results are exact, except for two things that can vary:

• If, for example, your Lit score is listed as 4.50, the actual score based on your votes and scores could be anywhere from 4.4951 (rounded up) through 4.5049 (rounded down), so there can be a very small amount of variation.
• Also, this is the score of your story AFTER the next vote, so for example, at 100 votes, the predicted score is the score after the 101st vote (the 1-bomb)

As a link (suggestion: try right click and "open in new tab" for a new window, may be easier to read. I'm playing by image-size limits according to Literotica standards as best I can, hence the smallish size) - http://forum.literotica.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=1758260&d=1441973915

As an inline image:

For the nerds: The arithmetic formula you can use, is this:

• ( 1 - Current_Score ) / Vote_Count (and the parentheses matter)
• alternately, ( Newly_Voted_Score - Current_Score) / Vote_Count if you'd like to see how a vote of 2, 3, 4, or 5 affects your score.

And for the super-nerds: Excel formula, you could paste this into cell A1 of a spreadsheet, with the assumption that you will type in the number of votes into cell A2, and the current score into cell A3:

• =((A$2*$A$3)+1)/($A$2+1)

Final hints: If you figure out ZOOM in your browser, this is reasonably easy to read. Most browsers have a zoom slider in the bottom right of the browser window, and many zoom via the scroll wheel while holding down CONTROL. Your results may (and will) vary.

EDIT: Attempt at CODE tags with text values: This seems to work also, good luck!

	10	25	50	100	150	200	250	300	350	400	450	500	750	1000	1250	1500	1750	2000	5000	10000
5.00	4.6364	4.8462	4.9216	4.9604	4.9735	4.9801	4.9841	4.9867	4.9886	4.9900	4.9911	4.9920	4.9947	4.9960	4.9968	4.9973	4.9977	4.9980	4.9992	4.9996
4.95	4.5909	4.7981	4.8725	4.9109	4.9238	4.9303	4.9343	4.9369	4.9387	4.9401	4.9412	4.9421	4.9447	4.9461	4.9468	4.9474	4.9477	4.9480	4.9492	4.9496
4.90	4.5455	4.7500	4.8235	4.8614	4.8742	4.8806	4.8845	4.8870	4.8889	4.8903	4.8914	4.8922	4.8948	4.8961	4.8969	4.8974	4.8978	4.8981	4.8992	4.8996
4.85	4.5000	4.7019	4.7745	4.8119	4.8245	4.8308	4.8347	4.8372	4.8390	4.8404	4.8415	4.8423	4.8449	4.8462	4.8469	4.8474	4.8478	4.8481	4.8492	4.8496
4.80	4.4545	4.6538	4.7255	4.7624	4.7748	4.7811	4.7849	4.7874	4.7892	4.7905	4.7916	4.7924	4.7949	4.7962	4.7970	4.7975	4.7978	4.7981	4.7992	4.7996
4.75	4.4091	4.6058	4.6765	4.7129	4.7252	4.7313	4.7351	4.7375	4.7393	4.7406	4.7417	4.7425	4.7450	4.7463	4.7470	4.7475	4.7479	4.7481	4.7493	4.7496
4.70	4.3636	4.5577	4.6275	4.6634	4.6755	4.6816	4.6853	4.6877	4.6895	4.6908	4.6918	4.6926	4.6951	4.6963	4.6970	4.6975	4.6979	4.6982	4.6993	4.6996
4.65	4.3182	4.5096	4.5784	4.6139	4.6258	4.6318	4.6355	4.6379	4.6396	4.6409	4.6419	4.6427	4.6451	4.6464	4.6471	4.6476	4.6479	4.6482	4.6493	4.6496
4.60	4.2727	4.4615	4.5294	4.5644	4.5762	4.5821	4.5857	4.5880	4.5897	4.5910	4.5920	4.5928	4.5952	4.5964	4.5971	4.5976	4.5979	4.5982	4.5993	4.5996
4.55	4.2273	4.4135	4.4804	4.5149	4.5265	4.5323	4.5359	4.5382	4.5399	4.5411	4.5421	4.5429	4.5453	4.5465	4.5472	4.5476	4.5480	4.5482	4.5493	4.5496
4.50	4.1818	4.3654	4.4314	4.4653	4.4768	4.4826	4.4861	4.4884	4.4900	4.4913	4.4922	4.4930	4.4953	4.4965	4.4972	4.4977	4.4980	4.4983	4.4993	4.4997
4.45	4.1364	4.3173	4.3824	4.4158	4.4272	4.4328	4.4363	4.4385	4.4402	4.4414	4.4424	4.4431	4.4454	4.4466	4.4472	4.4477	4.4480	4.4483	4.4493	4.4497
4.40	4.0909	4.2692	4.3333	4.3663	4.3775	4.3831	4.3865	4.3887	4.3903	4.3915	4.3925	4.3932	4.3955	4.3966	4.3973	4.3977	4.3981	4.3983	4.3993	4.3997
4.35	4.0455	4.2212	4.2843	4.3168	4.3278	4.3333	4.3367	4.3389	4.3405	4.3416	4.3426	4.3433	4.3455	4.3467	4.3473	4.3478	4.3481	4.3483	4.3493	4.3497
4.30	4.0000	4.1731	4.2353	4.2673	4.2781	4.2836	4.2869	4.2890	4.2906	4.2918	4.2927	4.2934	4.2956	4.2967	4.2974	4.2978	4.2981	4.2984	4.2993	4.2997
4.25	3.9545	4.1250	4.1863	4.2178	4.2285	4.2338	4.2371	4.2392	4.2407	4.2419	4.2428	4.2435	4.2457	4.2468	4.2474	4.2478	4.2481	4.2484	4.2494	4.2497
4.20	3.9091	4.0769	4.1373	4.1683	4.1788	4.1841	4.1873	4.1894	4.1909	4.1920	4.1929	4.1936	4.1957	4.1968	4.1974	4.1979	4.1982	4.1984	4.1994	4.1997
4.15	3.8636	4.0288	4.0882	4.1188	4.1291	4.1343	4.1375	4.1395	4.1410	4.1421	4.1430	4.1437	4.1458	4.1469	4.1475	4.1479	4.1482	4.1484	4.1494	4.1497
4.10	3.8182	3.9808	4.0392	4.0693	4.0795	4.0846	4.0876	4.0897	4.0912	4.0923	4.0931	4.0938	4.0959	4.0969	4.0975	4.0979	4.0982	4.0985	4.0994	4.0997
4.05	3.7727	3.9327	3.9902	4.0198	4.0298	4.0348	4.0378	4.0399	4.0413	4.0424	4.0432	4.0439	4.0459	4.0470	4.0476	4.0480	4.0483	4.0485	4.0494	4.0497
4.00	3.7273	3.8846	3.9412	3.9703	3.9801	3.9851	3.9880	3.9900	3.9915	3.9925	3.9933	3.9940	3.9960	3.9970	3.9976	3.9980	3.9983	3.9985	3.9994	3.9997
3.95	3.6818	3.8365	3.8922	3.9208	3.9305	3.9353	3.9382	3.9402	3.9416	3.9426	3.9435	3.9441	3.9461	3.9471	3.9476	3.9480	3.9483	3.9485	3.9494	3.9497
3.90	3.6364	3.7885	3.8431	3.8713	3.8808	3.8856	3.8884	3.8904	3.8917	3.8928	3.8936	3.8942	3.8961	3.8971	3.8977	3.8981	3.8983	3.8986	3.8994	3.8997
3.85	3.5909	3.7404	3.7941	3.8218	3.8311	3.8358	3.8386	3.8405	3.8419	3.8429	3.8437	3.8443	3.8462	3.8472	3.8477	3.8481	3.8484	3.8486	3.8494	3.8497
3.80	3.5455	3.6923	3.7451	3.7723	3.7815	3.7861	3.7888	3.7907	3.7920	3.7930	3.7938	3.7944	3.7963	3.7972	3.7978	3.7981	3.7984	3.7986	3.7994	3.7997
3.75	3.5000	3.6442	3.6961	3.7228	3.7318	3.7363	3.7390	3.7409	3.7422	3.7431	3.7439	3.7445	3.7463	3.7473	3.7478	3.7482	3.7484	3.7486	3.7495	3.7497
3.70	3.4545	3.5962	3.6471	3.6733	3.6821	3.6866	3.6892	3.6910	3.6923	3.6933	3.6940	3.6946	3.6964	3.6973	3.6978	3.6982	3.6985	3.6987	3.6995	3.6997
3.65	3.4091	3.5481	3.5980	3.6238	3.6325	3.6368	3.6394	3.6412	3.6425	3.6434	3.6441	3.6447	3.6465	3.6474	3.6479	3.6482	3.6485	3.6487	3.6495	3.6497
3.60	3.3636	3.5000	3.5490	3.5743	3.5828	3.5871	3.5896	3.5914	3.5926	3.5935	3.5942	3.5948	3.5965	3.5974	3.5979	3.5983	3.5985	3.5987	3.5995	3.5997
3.55	3.3182	3.4519	3.5000	3.5248	3.5331	3.5373	3.5398	3.5415	3.5427	3.5436	3.5443	3.5449	3.5466	3.5475	3.5480	3.5483	3.5485	3.5487	3.5495	3.5497
3.50	3.2727	3.4038	3.4510	3.4752	3.4834	3.4876	3.4900	3.4917	3.4929	3.4938	3.4945	3.4950	3.4967	3.4975	3.4980	3.4983	3.4986	3.4988	3.4995	3.4998
3.45	3.2273	3.3558	3.4020	3.4257	3.4338	3.4378	3.4402	3.4419	3.4430	3.4439	3.4446	3.4451	3.4467	3.4476	3.4480	3.4484	3.4486	3.4488	3.4495	3.4498
3.40	3.1818	3.3077	3.3529	3.3762	3.3841	3.3881	3.3904	3.3920	3.3932	3.3940	3.3947	3.3952	3.3968	3.3976	3.3981	3.3984	3.3986	3.3988	3.3995	3.3998
3.35	3.1364	3.2596	3.3039	3.3267	3.3344	3.3383	3.3406	3.3422	3.3433	3.3441	3.3448	3.3453	3.3469	3.3477	3.3481	3.3484	3.3487	3.3488	3.3495	3.3498
3.30	3.0909	3.2115	3.2549	3.2772	3.2848	3.2886	3.2908	3.2924	3.2934	3.2943	3.2949	3.2954	3.2969	3.2977	3.2982	3.2985	3.2987	3.2989	3.2995	3.2998
3.25	3.0455	3.1635	3.2059	3.2277	3.2351	3.2388	3.2410	3.2425	3.2436	3.2444	3.2450	3.2455	3.2470	3.2478	3.2482	3.2485	3.2487	3.2489	3.2496	3.2498
3.20	3.0000	3.1154	3.1569	3.1782	3.1854	3.1891	3.1912	3.1927	3.1937	3.1945	3.1951	3.1956	3.1971	3.1978	3.1982	3.1985	3.1987	3.1989	3.1996	3.1998
3.15	2.9545	3.0673	3.1078	3.1287	3.1358	3.1393	3.1414	3.1429	3.1439	3.1446	3.1452	3.1457	3.1471	3.1479	3.1483	3.1486	3.1488	3.1489	3.1496	3.1498
3.10	2.9091	3.0192	3.0588	3.0792	3.0861	3.0896	3.0916	3.0930	3.0940	3.0948	3.0953	3.0958	3.0972	3.0979	3.0983	3.0986	3.0988	3.0990	3.0996	3.0998
3.05	2.8636	2.9712	3.0098	3.0297	3.0364	3.0398	3.0418	3.0432	3.0442	3.0449	3.0455	3.0459	3.0473	3.0480	3.0484	3.0486	3.0488	3.0490	3.0496	3.0498
3.00	2.8182	2.9231	2.9608	2.9802	2.9868	2.9900	2.9920	2.9934	2.9943	2.9950	2.9956	2.9960	2.9973	2.9980	2.9984	2.9987	2.9989	2.9990	2.9996	2.9998
2.90	2.7273	2.8269	2.8627	2.8812	2.8874	2.8905	2.8924	2.8937	2.8946	2.8953	2.8958	2.8962	2.8975	2.8981	2.8985	2.8987	2.8989	2.8991	2.8996	2.8998
2.80	2.6364	2.7308	2.7647	2.7822	2.7881	2.7910	2.7928	2.7940	2.7949	2.7955	2.7960	2.7964	2.7976	2.7982	2.7986	2.7988	2.7990	2.7991	2.7996	2.7998
2.70	2.5455	2.6346	2.6667	2.6832	2.6887	2.6915	2.6932	2.6944	2.6952	2.6958	2.6962	2.6966	2.6977	2.6983	2.6986	2.6989	2.6990	2.6992	2.6997	2.6998
2.60	2.4545	2.5385	2.5686	2.5842	2.5894	2.5920	2.5936	2.5947	2.5954	2.5960	2.5965	2.5968	2.5979	2.5984	2.5987	2.5989	2.5991	2.5992	2.5997	2.5998
2.50	2.3636	2.4423	2.4706	2.4851	2.4901	2.4925	2.4940	2.4950	2.4957	2.4963	2.4967	2.4970	2.4980	2.4985	2.4988	2.4990	2.4991	2.4993	2.4997	2.4999
2.40	2.2727	2.3462	2.3725	2.3861	2.3907	2.3930	2.3944	2.3953	2.3960	2.3965	2.3969	2.3972	2.3981	2.3986	2.3989	2.3991	2.3992	2.3993	2.3997	2.3999
2.30	2.1818	2.2500	2.2745	2.2871	2.2914	2.2935	2.2948	2.2957	2.2963	2.2968	2.2971	2.2974	2.2983	2.2987	2.2990	2.2991	2.2993	2.2994	2.2997	2.2999
2.20	2.0909	2.1538	2.1765	2.1881	2.1921	2.1940	2.1952	2.1960	2.1966	2.1970	2.1973	2.1976	2.1984	2.1988	2.1990	2.1992	2.1993	2.1994	2.1998	2.1999
2.10	2.0000	2.0577	2.0784	2.0891	2.0927	2.0945	2.0956	2.0963	2.0969	2.0973	2.0976	2.0978	2.0985	2.0989	2.0991	2.0993	2.0994	2.0995	2.0998	2.0999
2.00	1.9091	1.9615	1.9804	1.9901	1.9934	1.9950	1.9960	1.9967	1.9972	1.9975	1.9978	1.9980	1.9987	1.9990	1.9992	1.9993	1.9994	1.9995	1.9998	1.9999
1.00	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000

 

[Zeb_Carter]

Well that's math. And when programmed by non-math persons, that's real math.

 

[jsmiam]

Well that's math. And when programmed by non-math persons, that's real math.

Do you have an error to point out? Superior math? A more concise and useful chart?

You are a super troll, so obsessed and without a life that I know I won't win at "get the last word." I concede on that front, because I have other things to do.

So... put your money where your mouth is and prove your superiority? Not with your usual hot air, but by actions? Provide something better and more useful? I am eagerly waiting.

 

[redzinger]

Interesting, ta.

Sums up the dichotomy of Lit (and publishing) in its current form:
- those who are popular with robust high scores will continue being read and continue being popular as bombs will not adversely affect them.
- those who are less popular will be adversely affected by bombs and will therefore be less likely to be read. Their scores won't recover, as they don't get the votes. If the score does, eventually, creep up, bombing will take it back down to anonymity.

I've seen this happen with contest winning stories which won with a low vote count - I was surprised a while ago to find some that had lost their H. Good stories, but by authors with a smaller following. After the link had gone from the front page, their stories were anonymous again.
(And I know some might say that they didn't deserve to win with fewer votes - scouries, for example - I don't support that view.)

I wish there was a HoF for winning stories, or the top 5-10 for each comp, as they placed, at the time.


There are exceptions, the odd breakthrough author, but in general?

 

[oggbashan]

I've seen this happen with contest winning stories which won with a low vote count - I was surprised a while ago to find some that had lost their H. Good stories, but by authors with a smaller following. After the link had gone from the front page, their stories were anonymous again.
(And I know some might say that they didn't deserve to win with fewer votes - scouries, for example - I don't support that view.)

...

In my experience, winning a contest means many of your stories will be bombed, including the winning one. As for an E? My only E lost its H within a couple of hours.

If I am feeling charitable, the attack on winning entries might be:

"That story won? I don't think it was THAT good so I'll give it a 4 (or 3, 2, 1.)."

 

[Zeb_Carter]

Do you have an error to point out? Superior math? A more concise and useful chart?

You are a super troll, so obsessed and without a life that I know I won't win at "get the last word." I concede on that front, because I have other things to do.

So... put your money where your mouth is and prove your superiority? Not with your usual hot air, but by actions? Provide something better and more useful? I am eagerly waiting.

No, I'm not trolling, sorry. But if you want me to, I'll be glad to, just for you.

Also...where did I say I was superior? I think you misunderstood what or who I was talking about.

I did something similar a while ago...on another site...on the way something was calculated. Most of the idiots there didn't get what I was talking about. Their loss.

In your case, I assumed, maybe wrongly, that you were complaining in a...scientific way...about how powerful a 1 could be. For us oldtimes, we know that without the scientific analysis, not that what you did isn't good, but what was the point?

I don't care what some jerk, who doesn't like me personally votes on any of my stories. Most don't even have voting or comments turned on. And those that do...I don't really care what their score is. It is what it is...until the sweeps are processed.

Now if you could tells how those work...

 

[MatthewVett]

In my experience, winning a contest means many of your stories will be bombed, including the winning one. As for an E? My only E lost its H within a couple of hours.

If I am feelong charitable, the attack on winning entries might be:

"That story won? I don't think it was THAT good so I'll give it a 4 (or 3, 2, 1.)."

My only E never had an H to lose... Who decides the Es? Is that Laurel personally, or?

 

[MatthewVett]

Thanks for this! I think it's useful to be able to see how large an impact a single vote can have.

 

[Weird Harold]

My only E never had an H to lose... Who decides the Es? Is that Laurel personally, or?

Either Laurel or Manu can award an E, but Manu seldom does, AFAIK. Nobody else can award an E.

 

[sr71plt]

Six of my Es have retained the H, which a miracle, as "someone" does what can be done to erase all my Hs.

 

[Altissimus]

This has probably been suggested before, but why doesn't the scoring system record, but simply not count, all 1-scores if they constitute less than, say, 10% or 15% of the overall votes? Or better still, make the average median not mean?

Both methods would almost completely negate the 1-bomb.

 

[HandsInTheDark]

This has probably been suggested before, but why doesn't the scoring system record, but simply not count, all 1-scores if they constitute less than, say, 10% or 15% of the overall votes? Or better still, make the average median not mean?

Both methods would almost completely negate the 1-bomb.

I've thought about schemes like this, and discussed them a couple times here, back when I thought scoring could be useful.

Bottom line - every scheme I came up with for filtering "obviously wrong" scores was exploitable; it's always possible to rig a score without being detected if you're persistent enough. Discarding outliers as you describe can help, but not enough. (You'd need to apply it to 5s as well, to be fair, btw.)

The real problem is, people vote as if there are 3 scores: 5, 4, and Awful. So if a story doesn't have a score above 4, don't even worry about it - it's crap in the eyes of the masses. That means that any useful appraisal of a story is measured as a number between 4.0 and 5.0. And in that range, a single 1 or 2 is devastating. Even a 3 can wipe you out of a contest or pull an H away. And that opens the door to undetectable manipulation.

 

[BuckyDuckman]

Since there's always a lot of discussion about how much a one-bomb affects scores, here's a chart that shows exactly how it works.

Good work, jsmiam! Would be interesting to see the converse, the impact of a 5 vote. Or a little program that would allow someone to enter if/then variables. IF I have X votes and I receive Y votes of Z. That far exceeds my abilities, but I mention it for those who have the kind of the mind for working out that sort of thing.

Here's the element that I think gets overlooked in many discussions about votes/scores: the general reading public. There are far more people voting than those who participate in the AH forum.

For those who don't know, through your writer interface, you can turn on/off voting for your stories. You can also moderate comments and decide if the comment board for your story is public or not.

Are there trolls? Sure. It's the internet. Of course there are trolls and not all trolls participate in the forums. Do they carry as much weight as they want to believe? I don't think so.

When my recent winning story took a big hit following the close of the contest, I attributed its decline to 1) It's placement on the front page meant it earned extra views and surely some didn't care for it as much as others. 2) Trolls. If I had to put a percentage to each, I'd go with 50/50. (Though, as Ogg points out, it's very typical to see contest winners experiencing a sudden drop in scores after the winners are announced.)

My advice? Rather than trying to out-think the system, write to please yourself. If your inner critic is satisfied, you're more likely to try writing again. Back in the days before the internet, people wrote to get published. You would submit your carefully crafted words, honed with the perfect slant, to whatever publication you felt was most likely to buy (or at least publish) your material. Along the way, you collected rejection slips. Man, those stung. But the only way you were sure to lose was by giving up. Keep writing. Write first for you and damn the rest!

 

[HandsInTheDark]

Another factor to consider. What does the score mean anyway? As a writer I want 5 to mean I wrote a well crafted story with great pacing, good plot, great char development, that had your hand in your panties the whole way.

But that's not how most readers vote. Some do, but then there's

. I got off. Pacing? Grammar, plot development? What's that? You hit my fetish and now my panties are soaked. 5.

. I hate that you didn't address my kink. You suck. 1.

. Your stories are better than mine. You suck. 2, because Manu is on to the 1 votes.

. I'm a troll. Hahaha, I'm a troll. 1.

. You spelled orgiastic wrong. You ruined it. 3.

. The last story I read got me very hot but didn't put me over. Yours tipped the balance. You get a 5. The previous story that did the heavy lifting didn't get a vote.

. My boyfriend just broke up with me. The world sucks. You mentioned love on page 3. You suck. 1.

Scores are random.

 

[oggbashan]

Another factor to consider. What does the score mean anyway? As a writer I want 5 to mean I wrote a well crafted story with great pacing, good plot, great char development, that had your hand in your panties the whole way.

But that's not how most readers vote. Some do, but then there's

...

I think that some readers assume that a score of 1 to 5 means that a 3 is a reasonable vote for a competent story, 4 for a good one, and 5 for an outstanding one. They might think that any of the voting choices produce an equal impact i.e. they don't appreciate the damage to a story's rating caused by a 1 or a 2.

If anything over 3.00 was considered 'good' then that assumption would be correct. But the bar for an H is set above 4.50. That skews the voting and makes low votes more damaging.

 

[BuckyDuckman]

I think that some readers assume that a score of 1 to 5 means that a 3 is a reasonable vote for a competent story, 4 for a good one, and 5 for an outstanding one. They might think that any of the voting choices produce an equal impact i.e. they don't appreciate the damage to a story's rating caused by a 1 or a 2.

If anything over 3.00 was considered 'good' then that assumption would be correct. But the bar for an H is set above 4.50. That skews the voting and makes low votes more damaging.

It would be interesting to see the scale changed to a 1 - 10 rating or a rating that allowed 1/2 stars. Though the site has too many historical stories for that to matter.

It would also be interesting to see the bar for receiving a red H lowered to 4.00. Along with recognizing more stories as "good," it would make it much more challenging for any trolls to outweigh the voting of the general readership.

 

[TxRad]

I think that some readers assume that a score of 1 to 5 means that a 3 is a reasonable vote for a competent story, 4 for a good one, and 5 for an outstanding one. They might think that any of the voting choices produce an equal impact i.e. they don't appreciate the damage to a story's rating caused by a 1 or a 2.

If anything over 3.00 was considered 'good' then that assumption would be correct. But the bar for an H is set above 4.50. That skews the voting and makes low votes more damaging.

5=100%
4.5=90%
4=80%
3=60%
2=40%
1=20%

This is the way things are now but do people see it this way? Very broad steps, which sometimes makes deciding on a score hard.

What if the scoring was a basic 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, 90%,100%, with 80% being the hot (H) line.

I'll let you bell curve experts hash out whether this would be better or not.

I think that would make things clearer to readers.


ETA: the percent would be scored as 1-10 and then displayed that way or shown as a percent.

 

[sr71plt]

What I'd like to see is for all those posters who say just to write what pleases you (which I agree with) hop en masse on the head of any poster who throws ratings up in the face of another author on this forum.

 

[jsmiam]

Good work, jsmiam! Would be interesting to see the converse, the impact of a 5 vote...

The formula from the first post can do that with one modification, if you have a spreadsheet. I will Edit and respond from home later with more detail, but here it is

Change from... =((A$2*$A$3)+1)/($A$2+1)

To.... =((A$2*$A$3)+00005)/($A$2+1)
paste the formula into cell A1 of a spreadsheet, with the assumption that you will type in the number of votes into cell A2, and the current score into cell A3:

(you could just type 5, but the 00005 is easier to see) . Paste into the formula bar, not directly into the cell, if first try doesn't cooperate. The impact is related to "the difference between the submitted score and the existing score", so a story currently at 4.5, is more affected by the 1 (3.5 point difference) than a 5 (0.5 point diff)

Also, everyone has a spreadsheet.. A throwaway one, anyway.. Https://sheet.zoho.com/scratch

 

[Swilly]

5=100%
4.5=90%
4=80%
3=60%
2=40%
1=20%

This is the way things are now but do people see it this way? Very broad steps, which sometimes makes deciding on a score hard.

What if the scoring was a basic 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, 90%,100%, with 80% being the hot (H) line.

I'll let you bell curve experts hash out whether this would be better or not.

I think that would make things clearer to readers.


ETA: the percent would be scored as 1-10 and then displayed that way or shown as a percent.

I think a ten star system would be much better. Right now, if a story is good, we can give it either an 80 or a 100 in terms of numerical grades. If I read a story that is very good, and either give it a lower than it deserves 80 or a higher than it deserves 100, which would be unfair to the story that is that little bit better. The 20 point spread is too much to differentiate between stories.

 

[Bramblethorn]

This has probably been suggested before, but why doesn't the scoring system record, but simply not count, all 1-scores if they constitute less than, say, 10% or 15% of the overall votes? Or better still, make the average median not mean?

Both methods would almost completely negate the 1-bomb.

Median is very grainy in a system where individual votes can only have one of five possible values. Every story that currently rates 4.51 or higher, and plenty that don't, would have a median of 5.0.

There are various statistical methods for producing a "representative" score that isn't heavily affected by outliers, but most aren't really designed for this kind of data where there are only a few possible values and the distribution is heavily skewed (5s are much more common than 1s) and non-Gaussian.

In the end, it's pretty hard to nerf malicious low-voting through scoring methods without also nerfing low votes from people who genuinely didn't like the story, and if we do that the scores become meaningless.