Robots Pt. II

[Ishmael]

A little piece of reporting from the Symposium/ITxpo conference in Orlando FL.

Rise of the machines

Like the reporter, I believe that Gartner's prediction of 33% is overly optimistic (or pessimistic depending on your bent), but fully 20% is not an unrealistic number. I whole heartedly agree that it is the 'doers' that will be supplanted by these systems. As I pointed out in the first thread on this subject, even the burger flippers won't be immune to the rise of this technology (servers as well).

When I was in Japan in the 90's the boys from Hitachi (my hosts) took me to a novel little sushi house. The entire restaurant was built around a 'G' scal model railroad. You pushed a button at your seat, the train would arrive and pick up you order that you had written on a slip of paper. Some time later the train would come back with your order on one of the flat cars. It seemed to work seamlessly. Obviously that model wouldn't be effective for all establishments, but it did show that even back then enterprising business owners were working on novel solutions to reduce overhead while amusing the customer.

Sooooooooooo, exactly how do all of these unskilled, uneducated, illegal immigrants fit into the new paradigm?

Ishmael

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

I think that new types of jobs will be created, unless, of course, government steps in to "solve" the problem.

 

[Ishmael]

I think that new types of jobs will be created, unless, of course, government steps in to "solve" the problem.

Undoubtedly that will occur, but I do NOT foresee that those new jobs will be in sufficient numbers to absorb these unwashed millions and provide them a 'living wage.'

Ishmael

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

The is not the history of technological advances.

But that thought process is what will get government involved.

I see gains in Capital and price deflation being the upshot, so that more will be gotten with less and there will be avenues for the creative and industrious that will carry others along with them. Imagination will run wild, it usually does. There are many jobs and professions that would never had been dreamed of in the year of my birth, before the age of the computer. Computers displaced a lot of workers, but as long as government was held in check, job creation continued.

 

[Lancecastor]

The standard (boring) Ishmael Dystopia calls for a widening gap between have/have nots based on access to the Knowledge Economy....which will result in anarchy and destruction.

The far more likely and much tastier Lance Utopia calls for ever-increasing efficiencies which will result in the Third World occupying the Middle Class...Phillipino call centers, Indian tech support, Chinese manufacturing.

The First World will live in Luxury & Splendor.

Are you ready?

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

Will we have floating cities?

 

[Ishmael]

The is not the history of technological advances.

But that thought process is what will get government involved.

I see gains in Capital and price deflation being the upshot, so that more will be gotten with less and there will be avenues for the creative and industrious that will carry others along with them. Imagination will run wild, it usually does. There are many jobs and professions that would never had been dreamed of in the year of my birth, before the age of the computer. Computers displaced a lot of workers, but as long as government was held in check, job creation continued.

You and I have lived through the transition from a manufacturing economy, to a service economy, to now a knowledge based economy. The operative word being "knowledge." The new 'refugees' are NOT educated and when looking at the historical track record neither will their sons and daughters.

You know as well as I that these individuals are going to represent a HUGE 'victim' class and that that is going to 'demand' government intervention.

Eventually we might be able to absorb those masses into the work force, but the government intervention you and I both see coming will actually prevent that and in reality create a permanent sub-class of captive voters dependent on the government for their home and hearth.

Ishmael

 

[Lancecastor]

Will we have floating cities?

Floating COUNTRIES!!!!

Like Haiti, for example.

a permanent sub-class of captive voters dependent on the government for their home and hearth.

Ishmael

That's what Arctic Development's for.

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

You and I have lived through the transition from a manufacturing economy, to a service economy, to now a knowledge based economy. The operative word being "knowledge." The new 'refugees' are NOT educated and when looking at the historical track record neither will their sons and daughters.

You know as well as I that these individuals are going to represent a HUGE 'victim' class and that that is going to 'demand' government intervention.

Eventually we might be able to absorb those masses into the work force, but the government intervention you and I both see coming will actually prevent that and in reality create a permanent sub-class of captive voters dependent on the government for their home and hearth.

Ishmael

Politically you make a good point.

I was speaking more to Economic law, which is why I threw in the part about government Interventionism.

 

[Ishmael]

The standard (boring) Ishmael Dystopia calls for a widening gap between have/have nots based on access to the Knowledge Economy....which will result in anarchy and destruction.

The far more likely and much tastier Lance Utopia calls for ever-increasing efficiencies which will result in the Third World occupying the Middle Class...Phillipino call centers, Indian tech support, Chinese manufacturing.

The First World will live in Luxury & Splendor.

Are you ready?

Dream on Lance, dream on.

The problem with your little utopia is that all of these provisioners of goods and services reside within their own nation, not within our borders.

I don't necessarily disagree with the desirability of you little model, merely point out that that is NOT happening now.

But, not surprisingly, you made no attempt to answer the question I posited. Why should you? You live in a nation that has a tight immigration policy and actually controls it's borders.

Ishmael

 

[Lancecastor]

you made no attempt to answer the question I posited.

Ishmael

Don't need to....the USA doesn't have a problem relative to the rest of the world, so relax.

http://content.gallup.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/xnsmmuvwz0ww5ductyp7rq.png

 

[Ishmael]

And more from another well known expert in the field.

'Puter's be smarter, you still dumb

Ishmael

 

[Ishmael]

Don't need to....the USA doesn't have a problem relative to the rest of the world, so relax.

http://content.gallup.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/xnsmmuvwz0ww5ductyp7rq.png

Didn't read the article very well, if at all, did you Lance?

Ishmael

 

[Sean Renaud]

It's really simple. You tax the rich and give to the poor.

 

[Ishmael]

It's really simple. You tax the rich and give to the poor.

And who do you tax after all the rich leave the country?

Ishmael

 

[Sean Renaud]

And who do you tax after all the rich leave the country?

Ishmael

Let them leave. We'll tax the new rich. What you're actually asking is what do we do if the rich become so spiteful they shut down their machines rather than feed us and in that case we simply kill them.