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What happened to all of the doom and gloom economic threads?

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vetteman said:
Resolved, that we live in a post constitutional society.
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A Democracy with a strong central government and a body of interpretive law that occasionally pays some lip service to Liberalism as define by our charter...

Our leaders are of the highest moral fiber that pure Democracy can provide.

;) ;)

"When plunder becomes a way of life for a group of men living together in society, they create for themselves in the course of time a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that justifies it."
Frédéric Bastiat
 
John Roberts Is a Super-Taxer
By Larry Kudlow
June 29, 2012

In the hours following the Supreme Court’s decision to ratify Obamacare, Romney got $4.6 million in donations from 47,000 individuals. The tide is with him. The Supreme’s are a game changer.

But Romney has to make the case. He needs to link the anemic jobs and economic situation to the Obamacare tax, spend, and regulate fiscal drag. And he has to add to that mix the dangers to our freedoms embodied in Justice John Roberts’s expansion of the power to tax our personal behavior.

Scott Rasmussen says the idea of Obamacare repeal has held steady at around 54 percent ever since its passage in March 2010. This reveals the dynamic political opportunity that Governor Romney has. Again, it’s a three-pronged attack: The anemic economy, the Obamacare costs that are stifling the economy, and the John Roberts expanded power of taxation that will bring us more mandates, more entitlements, and less personal freedom, all of which will further cripple the economy.

One way of looking at Roberts’s slight-of-hand decision to vote in favor of Obamacare is that a tax is a tax is a tax. As a non-lawyer, I see the Roberts vote as a massive expansion of federal government taxing power. Just what we don’t need.

Supply-siders like myself argue that when you tax something you get less of it. With Judge Roberts throwing in with the liberals on the Court to expand federal tax powers, we now face the massive threat of ultra-slow economic growth in the U.S. for years to come.

The Roberts Court has served up a “tax mandate” that is more powerful than the still-limited Commerce Clause regulatory mandate. Roberts has created a huge new loophole. Instead of new purchase mandates, we’ll have new purchase tax mandates.

This expanded tax power could force me to eat broccoli if the government so chooses, or make me put solar panels on my home. Governor Bobby Jindal now worries about the people who “refuse to eat tofu or refuse to drive a Chevy Volt.” Not because of the Commerce Clause, but because of the new tax-mandate clause. You’ll be taxed heavily if you don’t do what the government wants you to do.

And don’t we have enough taxes already in this country? And what about the tax threats that are coming down the road?

Repealing the Bush tax cuts and adding on the Obamacare tax hikes will produce outrageous marginal tax rates of roughly 45 percent for successful earners, dividend investors, and small-business owners. In other words, European-style taxes, which suggests anemic European-style growth.

Americans for Tax Reform estimates that Obamacare contains 20 new or higher taxes on American families and small businesses. Investor’s Business Daily says this comes to a $675 billion tax hike over the next decade. Steve Moore of the Wall Street Journal editorial board cites CBO estimates that roughly 8 million (or 76 percent of) middle-class taxpayers earning less than 120,000 a year will shoulder the new Obamacare tax mandate authorized by Judge Roberts.

And this whole panoply of Obamacare taxes is already one big drag on the economy. Just in recent days, revised GDP came in at 1.9 percent, and real consumer spending was essentially flat. Job growth has slowed markedly, as have new factory orders. Economists on Wall Street are looking for only 2 percent growth this year. The Fed is so worried about the economy it might launch another counterproductive quantitative easing.

Meanwhile, health-care premiums are going up, not down. Mandated one-size-fits-all health services and insurance will incentivize businesses to pay the fine and push employees into the state’s exchange system. And this will drive up the subsidized entitlement even more.

The CBO now estimates that Obamacare spending will hit $1.8 trillion over the next ten years. That’s a number that started out at only half as much. But that’s what happens when you install European- style entitlements. You threaten to bankrupt the nation’s finances. Or you threaten to literally tax us into perpetual subpar growth and high unemployment.

And that’s the case Mitt Romney has to make. But he has to hammer away, day by day. He needs to make these points if we’re to end the malaise.
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Ahead: 50% unemployment, a 90% stock market drop, and 100% annual inflation...

Faber: '100% Chance' of Global Recession

Investors need to prepare for a global recession.

That’s the takeaway from one well-respected economist after his recent appearance on CNBC’s Fast Money Halftime Report.

According to Marc Faber, the author of the Gloom, Boom, and Doom Report, a global recession is all but a certainty later this year or in early 2013.

When he was asked what sort of odds he put on a global recession happening, the economist famous for his ominous predictions quickly answered:

“100%.”

Faber’s pessimism during his recent appearance on CNBC wasn’t surprising for a man whose nickname is “Doctor Doom.”

What was surprising was his level of certainty that a global recession was coming.

Faber stated that there is a “meaningful slowdown in India and China” that many investors are missing due to the media’s focus on Greece and Spain.

He is also worried that the wealthy may be showing signs of spending fatigue after Tiffany’s reported slowing sales.

“There are more and more stocks that are breaking down — economic sensitive stocks and companies that cater to the high end. That suggests to me the economy is likely to weaken and the huge asset run is likely to come to an end with significant asset deflation.”

~

Without appearing on CNBC or being known by a scary nickname, Robert Wiedemer did what Marc Faber couldn’t: He accurately predicted the economic collapse that almost sunk the United States.

In 2006, Wiedemer and a team of economists foresaw the coming collapse of the U.S. housing market, equity markets, private debt, and consumer spending, and published their findings in the book America’s Bubble Economy.

But Wiedemer’s outlook for the U.S. economy today makes “Doctor Doom” sound like Mr. Rogers.

Where Faber sees a global recession, Wiedemer sees much more widespread economic destruction.

In a recent interview for his newest book Aftershock, Wiedemer says, “The data is clear, 50% unemployment, a 90% stock market drop, and 100% annual inflation . . . starting in 2012.”

http://www.moneynews.com/StreetTalk/Faber-100chance-recession/2012/05/31/id/440837?PROMO_CODE=F144-1
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Have a nice day...
 
4est_4est_Gump said:
No I'm going to pull a merc and lie to everyone about how you make money in down markets after predicting the stimulus would cause them to rise...


;) ;)
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I said I made money in an up market, dipshit. You know, the one that rose almost 7000 points?

Who cares if I predicted that the stimulus would cause the market to rise? The fact is it rose steeply over a number of years after the stimulus. Regardless as to whether it's cause or correlation we made a ton of money.

Everyone did. Except you I guess since you've been predicting market collapse since 2009. No way you put money on the market when you knew it was about to tank.
 
4est_4est_Gump said:
*snicker*



Watching these guys work themselves into a lather over the good news just so makes my day knowing that as per usual, the rinse cycle will be more of a cold shower. Anyone who thinks that Europe is saved because the hands-out put a gun to the head of the producing countries and said, if you don't transfer handouts (wealth) to us, we're going to commit suicide and take you with us is probably totally delusional in a purely partisan way.
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So you were totally abso-fucking-lutely wrong in thinking that Obamacare would harm the markets? After all, the market had built in the idea that it was going to be struck down. Then when it wasn't, 24 hours later the market shot up 2%.

Just another one of your failed predictions that we'll go ahead and toss into your overflowing dumpster of failed predictions. You know, the one we all laugh at you for while you insist it doesn't exist?
 
As I wrote on June 19, the Eurozone is a wreck, and Greece, which has since announced it will leave the EU on January 1, 2013, can’t even afford to pay attention. Spain is in trouble, Italy is swimming in debt, and other members of the EU are wondering when, if ever, they will be able to get their spending and expenses under control.

One result of this has been increased demand on Germany, the solvent nation in the midst of the EU chaos. Because of her solvency, she has become the teat at which the debt-ridden EU countries are trying to feed.

Another result has been the recent formation of the European Financial Stability Facility to serve as the central financial supervisory body for the EU. While the main job of this facility is to “aid banks directly without adding to government debt,” there are reasonable questions about how one EU financial office will be able to oversee bailouts (for all intents and purposes) without continuing to add to the massive debt already overtaking countries there.

I can only say that watching the EU try to salvage their financial future without significantly cutting many of their cradle-to-grave benefits is like listening to President Obama promise to reduce our nearly $20 trillion in debt while simultaneously ramming Obamacare down our throats.

In fact, my guess is that the European Financial Stability Facility and Obamcare have one main thing in common—both will be wildly popular for a time, then the euphoria will wear off and someone will have to foot the bill.
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http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Peace/2012/06/29/The-EU-To-Avoid-Debt-Via-Debt
 
mercury14 said:
So you were totally abso-fucking-lutely wrong in thinking that Obamacare would harm the markets? After all, the market had built in the idea that it was going to be struck down. Then when it wasn't, 24 hours later the market shot up 2%.

Just another one of your failed predictions that we'll go ahead and toss into your overflowing dumpster of failed predictions. You know, the one we all laugh at you for while you insist it doesn't exist?
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You'd better quote me.


And, for once, in context...

Otherwise, we all know by now, you're just making stuff up again...
 
The June jobs report out next week is expected to continue a trend of disappointing job growth. U.S. stock markets will close early on Tuesday and remain closed all day Wednesday for the July 4th holiday.

Economists are predicting 100,000 new jobs were created in June, better than the measly 69,000 created in May but well below the 200,000 range established earlier this year. The report from the U.S. Labor Department is due Friday. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 8.2%.

Labor markets have weakened considerably as the weather has turned warmer and the poor numbers have impacted consumer sentiment and consumer spending.
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Read more: http://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/...bs-report-and-july-4th-holiday/#ixzz1zNQDLeoz
 
Let's read the Tea leaves...

China's factory downturn worsened in June as a key activity index hit a seven-month low, data expected to raise expectations the central bank may seek more policy easing to revive the world's second-largest economy.

The official Chinese purchasing managers' index fell to 50.2 in June after seasonal adjustments, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Sunday, above forecasts for 49.8, but down from May's 50.4.

That was the worse reading since November last year, and a sharp fall in export orders and shrinking new orders suggested a recovery is not in sight. This would fuel bets that Beijing could further relax monetary policy as soon as this month, an analyst said.
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Read more: http://www.foxbusiness.com/news/2012/07/01/china-june-official-pmi-hits-7-month-low/#ixzz1zSYZOHNH


All the Tea in China...
 
The truth, however, is that few observers -- European or American -- forecast that the European unification project would eventually produce a fiasco on this scale. Indeed, most early opponents of European political and economic integration were old-fashioned lefties who feared it might impede implementation of socialist policies!

A rare exception to this rule was the German economist Wilhelm Röpke. Today, he's mainly known as a primary intellectual architect of the postwar German economic miracle as well as one of postwar Keynesianism's most ferocious critics. However, not many know that Röpke was also one of the very few free market economists who loudly and publicly criticized what would eventually become today's European Union even before the Treaty of Rome was signed in 1957. Röpke was in short a "euroskeptic" long before the term was coined.

Röpke's brand of euroskepticism didn't arise from concerns about national sovereignty, let alone nationalist sentiments. His experiences as a highly decorated soldier fighting in the Kaiser's army on the Western front during World War I left him with a permanent distaste for nationalism and militarism, especially its fascist manifestations -- so much so that he was one of the first professors whom the National Socialists dismissed from German universities after they took power in 1933. Moreover, as an economist who was extraordinarily well-read outside the confines of the dismal science, Röpke also knew that modern nation-states have not, historically speaking, always been liberty's greatest friends.

Nevertheless, Röpke was highly censorious of the economic and political vision underlying most postwar European unification efforts. No amount of window-dressing, he said, could disguise their profoundly dirigiste inspiration and ambitions.

It's striking just how much Röpke got right about the consequences of the present European integration model. In 1958, for instance, he predicted it would eventually pit a minority of relatively market-orientated European economies (particularly Germany) against a majority of strongly étatiste-inclined countries. Those nations that ran disciplined fiscal and monetary policies, Röpke argued, would eventually be pushed to "sacrifice" their rectitude "on the altar of Europe" in order to assist less-disciplined nations.

And that is, of course, the choice squarely facing Angela Merkel today. Germany is under enormous pressure from figures such as France's new socialist president François Hollande -- who, incidentally, has just lowered (!) France's retirement-age for certain workers and raised (!!) its minimum-wage beyond the inflation-rate -- to significantly compromise the very policies that have produced German economic success in order to save Club Med Europe from the results of years of fiscal frivolity. On the subject of a pan-European monetary system, Röpke insisted in a 1959 paper that it would only work if (1) all of its adherents adhered to disciplined fiscal policies and (2) mechanisms existed to expel any country that broke the rules. He strongly doubted, however, that such conditions would be met in a Europe in which generous welfare states were increasingly the norm, governments were proving adept at both fudging and ignoring rules, and politicians were regularly using the state's power to tax, spend, and run deficits to attract different interest-groups' electoral support. Once again, Röpke proved correct.

Röpke also forecast that the precursor to today's European Union, the European Economic Community (EEC), would exacerbate the bureaucraticization that plagued much European economic life. Foreshadowing what would later be called public choice theory, Röpke noted that every single postwar creation of supra-European institutions had produced armies of civil servants with a strong self-interest in expanding their numbers and influence. Less than 6 years after the EEC's creation, Röpke observed that its executive bodies had become "an enormous administrative machine" churning out thousands of growth-stifling regulations. Even worse, he added, the EEC's various departments had already been captured by "socialists and ingrained interventionists." Little, it seems, has changed.
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http://spectator.org/archives/2012/07/02/the-prophet-of-europes-crisis
 
President Obama should put Adam Smith's "The Wealth of Nations" at the top of his summer reading list. This was clear after listening to his 54-minute list of economic excuses and policy proposals delivered earlier this month on the campus of Cuyahoga Community College in Cleveland.

At times Mr. Obama suggested that the profit motive is somehow ignoble, an opinion shared by many on the far left. But every student learns in introductory economics class that the pursuit of profits is essential to a successful economy, allocating resources to the use consumers value most.

This is not exactly a new insight. Writing in 1776, Adam Smith noted, "It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker that we can expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest."

The president spent nearly an hour demonizing his Republican opponent Mitt Romney's economic policies and doubling down on his own failed agenda. He called for higher taxes on our most productive citizens and successful small businesses, more government spending and debt, and Washington micromanagement of wide swaths of the economy.

Instead of doubling down, Mr. Obama could have seen his party's 2010 midterm defeat as a message from voters to move to the center, announcing that his vast expansion of government was temporary and necessitated by the financial crisis and deep recession.

That's similar to what President Clinton did after his 1994 midterm rebuke that swept Republicans to control of Congress and led to bipartisan agreement to balance the budget and reform welfare. Mr. Clinton won re-election handily.

...

Is it any wonder that recent polls show the majority of Americans disapprove of the president's economic policies and are asking why his explosion of spending and debt has done so little good. Mr. Obama claims that when he took office nobody knew just how deep this recession really was. Not so. I and other economists said it was going to be the worst recession in a generation, and immediately after the 2008 election urged him to temporarily set aside his big-government social-engineering agenda, from energy to health-care reform. Whatever their pros and cons, it was the worst possible time to add such a cost burden and uncertainty to the economy. He was mistaken in the hope the economy could withstand his change.

In 2009, 2010 and 2011, the administration forecast average economic growth of 4% in the next two years. But the economy has not had even one quarter of 4% growth during Mr. Obama's stewardship. Rather, our economy has experienced its longest string of consecutive quarters of economic growth below 4% since World War II. Growth has averaged 1.4% in Mr. Obama's first 13 quarters as president.

His record on jobs is just as bad. Mr. Obama's initial forecast claimed unemployment would never reach 8% if his $800 billion stimulus bill passed in early 2009 (as it did) and would now be below 6%. That's off by 3.9 million unemployed workers, millions more if we include those who have given up looking for work.

Perhaps we should not have expected more from the eloquent apostle of hope and change. Mr. Obama had little experience in or respect for the "for profit" part of the economy. Of his one brief sojourn in the business world, he says in his autobiography he felt "like a spy behind enemy lines."

He now says that Mr. Romney's business career—which former President Clinton describes as "sterling"—is not a qualification to be president. How would he know? Before becoming president, he had no executive experience of any kind—private or public.

Mr. Obama's most recent statements reveal a strange disconnect from basic economic reality. In a press conference on June 8 he said, "The private sector is doing fine," adding that we needed more federal spending subsidizing state and local government jobs, where he claims the jobs problem is centered. But according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, there are 11 unemployed private-sector workers for every unemployed government worker.

Last month Mr. Obama said, "Since I've been president, federal spending has risen at the lowest pace in nearly 60 years." But it turns out he was quoting a blogger who did not count the massive 2009 stimulus spending. Careful administration fact-checking served former presidents well. Is this administration's standard no longer facts but anything on the Internet?
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Mr. Boskin is a professor of economics at Stanford University and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution. He chaired the Council of Economic Advisers under President George H.W. Bush.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303561504577494382148546066.html
 
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