So, what about Congress?

[KingOrfeo]

That's the other election this year, right? We have all these presidential election threads, but the composition of the next Congress Obama/Romney really, Obama is gonna have to deal with also matters. How does the House change? How does the Senate change? Why or why not? What role does the Tea Party play? What role does OWS play? Is it too late for any third-party candidates to make a difference? Measured opinions, wild speculations, bring 'em on.

 

[coastal-boy]

Very little will change. We will still have the same President.

In the Senate, the majority of the seats up for re-election are Democratic. Tester will lose in Montana. Brown will lose in Mass. Lieberman will lose but will be replaced by a D. Web is retiring in Virginia and that will go R. The surprise will be the Nevada seat going D. That keeps the numbers the same. The rest of the seats are locked for the most part.

The Tea party House "landslide" in 2010 will be history. Many will not be able to defend. The House will likely see many new faces...but all in all...I don't expect the numbers to really change overall.

 

[JackLuis]

With Congressional approval ratings in the low teens (13% in that last poll I looked at) I'm surprised that we can re-elect any congress critter.

 

[Sean Renaud]

My guess here is that the Senate will remain largely the same. Despite how many Democrats are up it doesn't change the fact that Republicans aren't liked nationwide at the moment. The approval rate for Congress in meaningless because people hate Congress but not their Congress critters.

What will be really interesting will be the House and how things roll there.

 

[KingOrfeo]

With Congressional approval ratings in the low teens (13% in that last poll I looked at) I'm surprised that we can re-elect any congress critter.

If they're all that unpopular, then every single seat should change parties in 2012. Nevertheless, no matter how bad Congress' approval ratings, we never see every seat change parties that year. Or even most of them.

 

[Sean Renaud]

If they're all that unpopular, then every single seat should change parties in 2012. Nevertheless, no matter how bad Congress' approval ratings, we never see every seat change parties that year. Or even most of them.

Again because Congress is a group not an individual. All of the individuals poll higher than they do as a group. It also doesn't help that nobody runs against their own party. I'd happily trade in my Senators for someone who was a little less silly but it's either them or someone from the right so it's kind of a no choice situation.

 

[JAMESBJOHNSON]

The Tea Party will scalp a few Democrats and RINOs, and scare the GOP.

Obama stays President.

The Senate goes GOP.

The House stays GOP.

But it all depends on what the economy is doing in the Fall.

 

[miles]

With Congressional approval ratings in the low teens (13% in that last poll I looked at) I'm surprised that we can re-elect any congress critter.

It's called NIMBY...everyone else's Congressman sucks except the voters'.