Let's Talk Libya

[3113]

I know, I know, it's a porn sight and we should be talking Labia instead, but as with Egypt, I'm curious to know what's going on and what people think. While we can probably agree that the evil dictator should be gone, what, in your individual opinion is likely to happen? Will the people succeed? Who or what will fill the void if they do? How will this affect the region?

 

[estragon]

I know, I know, it's a porn sight and we should be talking Labia instead, but as with Egypt, I'm curious to know what's going on and what people think. While we can probably agree that the evil dictator should be gone, what, in your individual opinion is likely to happen? Will the people succeed? Who or what will fill the void if they do? How will this affect the region?

3113, my bet is that the Demon of Unintended Consequences once again urinates on the Pillars of Society. Khaddafy (or Qaddafy, or however the fuck he spells it) is finally out, after having killed a lot of people. This is followed by the usual orgy of beatings, rapes, murders, looting, as the revolutionary brigade of martyrs or whatever they call themselves avenge the deaths and oppression of the last 30-something years. This is followed by truly democratic elections, subject only to the religious fascists, who don't have to lean too hard on the voters to cause them to elect as President of the Peoples' Democratic Islamic Republic of Libya the guy who blew up Pan Am 103 and was supposed to be dying of prostate cancer, only he miraculously recovered. The newly elected democratic President promptly makes deals with Iran (who bankrolled the revolution) and North Korea (who will do anything for a few euros or dollars) to restart Libya's nuclear reactors for "peaceful" purposes and to buy some North Korean made Taepodong missles for "defense". Our esteemed President and Secretary of State then make some speeches calling for restraint, while the new democratic Libyan President loudly supports a jihad against the infidels.

 

[voluptuary_manque]

Military coup, continued repression. Sorry.

 

[estragon]

I Like Yours Better

Voluptuary, your story is better (as usual). But this time I don't think it will fly. The fellahin won't buy it any more. If they get the metaphorical bit in their teeth they won't submit to another colonel. Maybe after a "democratic" (whatever that means) government screws things up, but not now.

 

[sr71plt]

Looks like he may be out this time--I predicted it would happen here next after Egypt. But, as already said, just to be replaced by more-or-less the same.

 

[Loring2]

Long Sigh

3113, my bet is that the Demon of Unintended Consequences once again urinates on the Pillars of Society. Khaddafy (or Qaddafy, or however the fuck he spells it) is finally out, after having killed a lot of people. This is followed by the usual orgy of beatings, rapes, murders, looting, as the revolutionary brigade of martyrs or whatever they call themselves avenge the deaths and oppression of the last 30-something years. This is followed by truly democratic elections, subject only to the religious fascists, who don't have to lean too hard on the voters to cause them to elect as President of the Peoples' Democratic Islamic Republic of Libya the guy who blew up Pan Am 103 and was supposed to be dying of prostate cancer, only he miraculously recovered. The newly elected democratic President promptly makes deals with Iran (who bankrolled the revolution) and North Korea (who will do anything for a few euros or dollars) to restart Libya's nuclear reactors for "peaceful" purposes and to buy some North Korean made Taepodong missles for "defense". Our esteemed President and Secretary of State then make some speeches calling for restraint, while the new democratic Libyan President loudly supports a jihad against the infidels.

Estragon, I read your comments and snickered per your instructions; It's a fine piece of satire; but then I gasped and read it again and came to the conclusion that in addition to your sense of the ridiculous, good as it is, takes a distant second place to your prescience.

 

[SeaCat]

According to Uncle Fidel the U.S. is going to invade and take over.

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/world/fidel-castro-says-us-plans-nato-invasion-of-1272775.html

Cat

 

[1sickbastard]

A lot depends on the army

Some units of the army have reposted to have defected and sided with the demonstrators.
If more units follow, it could just lead to a bloody civil war. What ever side the vast majority of the army goes with will be the winning side.

That's the important factor about Egypt that a lot of folks seem to have forgotten or discounted, that the Egyptian armned forces stayed (more or less) neutral.

 

[Black13]

"The end? Nothing ends, Adrian. Nothing ever ends."

 

[voluptuary_manque]

I'm beginning to think he's doomed. According to the NYT, the Arab world is having a hoot about this spoof on Gaddafi's speech by an Israeli student. And the dancing girl is hawt!

Against the assault of laughter, nothing can stand!--Mark Twain

 

[R. Richard]

I'm beginning to think he's doomed. According to the NYT, the Arab world is having a hoot about this spoof on Gaddafi's speech by an Israeli student. And the dancing girl is hawt!

Too much clothes on the dnacing girl. What's needed here is the naked truth!

 

[voluptuary_manque]

Too much clothes on the dnacing girl. What's needed here is the naked truth!

Agreed, but she moves real sexy-like.

 

[TE999]

Gaddaffy will go out in an act of spectactular suicide...not cowering in a bunker like Hitler. Chaos will then reign supreme as old scores are settled and suppressed tribal hatreds erupt anew. When the smoke finally clears, Lybia's oil fields will be severely damaged, some sort of parliament will have been seated and a chairman or president selected. I don't think radical Islamists will gain much of a foothold as they're more repressive than Gaddaffy was and the people know it.

 

[Bebeslut]

I think one of his inner circle of guards will shoot him. As for the rest of it, I'm not familiar enough with Libyan society to make any predictions.
We may not like what results, but we have little to say about it.
What amuses me is that we seem to know so little about the feelings of the average Arab. We used to throw the term "the Arab street" around so much -- we had no idea what people on the Arab street were thinking!

 

[estragon]

I'm beginning to think he's doomed. According to the NYT, the Arab world is having a hoot about this spoof on Gaddafi's speech by an Israeli student. And the dancing girl is hawt!

Against the assault of laughter, nothing can stand!--Mark Twain

I could almost put up with looking at that vomit-faced murdering motherfucker just to see that young woman air out her equipage. Does she give lapdances?

 

[R. Richard]

Okay, you are unfortunate enough to live in Libya. You pay your taxes and you don't play politics. You don't have a gun, because you depend on the scumbags to protect you.

Where are the scumbags?

 

[voluptuary_manque]

Okay, you are unfortunate enough to live in Libya. You pay your taxes and you don't play politics. You don't have a gun, because you depend on the scumbags to protect you.

Where are the scumbags?

Riding around in 'tacticals' (pickup trucks with heavy machine guns mounted in the bed) shooting at demonstrators.

 

[JackLuis]

Apparently some of the police and some of the Army has changed sides. MQ still has his loyal guards, and a Battalion one of his sons commands. He has some Air Forces left and that is a significant force, if underwhelming.

There were two stories out of Bengali, One guy said, "We'll have elections in 90 days!" The guy who commanded the Army forces who defected said, "Oh no, we've set up a new Guardian Council."

80% of the oil is in rebel hands and MQ is redundant. He just hasn't realized it yet.

 

[JAMESBJOHNSON]

This is all about keeping the prices of oil and gold inflated.

Gold, especially, is one huge bubble wanting to pop and ruin everyone who bought gold lately. After Gubya & Obama bailed out the banks the elites withdrew their money and bought gold. Lotsa pension funds are heavily invested in oil and oil companies.

The danger is Obama and Cameron will push too hard, and push the economy into the abyss.

 

[colddiesel]

Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Bahrain, Morrocco: none of them matter,

Saudi Arabia matters, that's when the shit hits the fan.

 

[JAMESBJOHNSON]

The average Arab's idea of freedom is hanging a Christian orJew without a hassle by the cops. The average Arab's concept of democracy is a mob.

The Arab is caught halfway between black and white, and with the worst of each.

 

[JackLuis]

Libya rebels rout Gadhafi force attack on oil port

A well regulated militia, suitably armed, rejects the tyrants forces!

Think they will adopt a constitution, with a Bill of Rights?

 

[voluptuary_manque]

The best the pro-Gaddafi forces could come up with was some pickup mounted machine guns and a mortar or so? That wasn't a very well organized or reinforced assault. Heck, the rebels managed to field a tank. This is all going to degenerate into inter-tribal warfare. Seize the oil fields and the port, fence the rest of the country in and let them fight it out? Barbaric.

 

[JackLuis]

The best the pro-Gaddafi forces could come up with was some pickup mounted machine guns and a mortar or so? That wasn't a very well organized or reinforced assault. Heck, the rebels managed to field a tank. This is all going to degenerate into inter-tribal warfare. Seize the oil fields and the port, fence the rest of the country in and let them fight it out? Barbaric.

No, they're Berbers.

 

[voluptuary_manque]

Berberic?