When will Israel eliminate Iran's Nuclear Threat?(Poll)

[amicus]

It is being discussed on the news channels. Do you have a guess?

Although NATO members continue to attempt negotiation and ineffectual Sanctions are already in place, Iran's Leader continues to declare that Israel will be 'wiped off the map.'

What will happen and when?

Amicus

 

[slyc_willie]

Israel won't do it alone; the threat of Iran will not be an easy one to tackle. Israel is the most powerful nation in the Middle East, but it won't go head-to-head with any of its numerous neighbors on a whim, and certainly without the backing of the US.

Israel will wait for, or provoke, a confrontation. Iran will make a gesture of some kind -- a small invasion, kidnapping a large number of jews, a terrorist attack in Tel Aviv or elsewhere . . . and then Israel will respond with overwhelming force. Thousands dead. Iranian outposts destroyed. The news media will report the deaths of numerous women and children.

The cycle will repeat over and over until sufficient "proof" of Iran's intention to use a nuclear weapon, at which time the US and Israel, with some backing from the UN, will engage Iran.

I give it a few years.

 

[JackLuis]

Not until Dick Cheney gets back in office, so Israel can convince him to Nuke Iran. The Jews are not going to provoke a nation of 70 million, they will "let Dick do it." Just like they convinced him to take out Saddam.

 

[amicus]

Thank you yet again, Slyc, as you noted before, best watch out you are not branded by association and placed on Iggy.....

I do beg to differ with you. Israel will defend themselves, by themselves and by pre-emption. They will not wait until Iran actually tests a Nuclear Weapon.

Although this nation has stated that it will not tolerate a nuclear Iran, it comes across to me as lip service without meaning; the US will not initiate a strike against Iran under any circumstances short of attack during this administration.

I am not Jewish but I have admired Israel since it became a Nation and was forced to fight for its' existence.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/june/7/newsid_3014000/3014623.stm

BBC ON THIS DAY | 7 | 1981: Israel bombs Baghdad nuclear reactor

1981: Israel bombs Baghdad nuclear reactorThe Israelis have bombed a French-built nuclear plant near Iraq's capital, Baghdad, saying they believed it was designed to make nuclear weapons to destroy Israel.

It is the world's first air strike against a nuclear plant.

They have done it once, I have no doubt, if they feel truly threatened, they will do it again.

Ami

 

[slyc_willie]

Thank you yet again, Slyc, as you noted before, best watch out you are not branded by association and placed on Iggy.....

They have done it once, I have no doubt, if they feel truly threatened, they will do it again.

Ami

Like I care about Iggy.

No doubt Israel will take whatever means necessary to quell any threat. But in this past decade, more spotlight has been placed on the region than ever before as regards media coverage and interest. Israel feels the daggers of the rest of the developed world as they are being sharpened just as does the US. They have to be careful.

Which is partly what I meant about Israel waiting for provocation. They aren't above luring Iran into a trap. If they get Iran to overstep themselves, Israel will use that as an open door of retaliation to take out whatever sites they feel they need to.

Jews have been fighting a perpetual war throughout the majority of recorded western history. They have been persecuted more than any other sect of people. They understand the power of violence and are more than ready to use it. Beyond that, the Jews of Israel are particularly diligent about protecting their way of life, and will use whatever means necessary.

They are nothing if not ruthless, and I doubt many people, including their enemies, understand just how ruthless they can be.

 

[Boxlicker101]

Thank you yet again, Slyc, as you noted before, best watch out you are not branded by association and placed on Iggy.....

I do beg to differ with you. Israel will defend themselves, by themselves and by pre-emption. They will not wait until Iran actually tests a Nuclear Weapon.

Although this nation has stated that it will not tolerate a nuclear Iran, it comes across to me as lip service without meaning; the US will not initiate a strike against Iran under any circumstances short of attack during this administration.

I am not Jewish but I have admired Israel since it became a Nation and was forced to fight for its' existence.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/june/7/newsid_3014000/3014623.stm

BBC ON THIS DAY | 7 | 1981: Israel bombs Baghdad nuclear reactor




They have done it once, I have no doubt, if they feel truly threatened, they will do it again.

Ami

Like everybody else so far, I said "Only if attacked first" but enough of a provocation would be considered an attack. The development and testing of a nuclear bomb or device would be more than enough of a provocation.

I don't know what Obama would do. From what he has said, I get the impression that he feels there is something to be gained by talking to lunatics.

ETA: Have people forgotten how Israel took on Egypt and Syria simultaneously and whipped their asses? That total population was a lot more than 70 million.

 

[slyc_willie]

Like everybody else so far, I said "Only if attacked first" but enough of a provocation would be considered an attack. The development and testing of a nuclear bomb or device would be more than enough of a provocation.

I don't know what Obama would do. From what he has said, I get the impression that he feels there is something to be gained by talking to lunatics.

ETA: Have people forgotten how Israel took on Egypt and Syria simultaneously and whipped their asses? That total population was a lot more than 70 million.

That was a limited engagement, though, and it was understood to be such by all sides.

I don't think Obama would have much choice. The US needs Israel in the Middle East. For 62 years now, the Israelis have been part watchdog for the US. We can't afford to lose that, especially now.

 

[Boxlicker101]

That was a limited engagement, though, and it was understood to be such by all sides.

I don't think Obama would have much choice. The US needs Israel in the Middle East. For 62 years now, the Israelis have been part watchdog for the US. We can't afford to lose that, especially now.

Hopefully, this would be a limited engagement too. I don't believe there would be a full-scale war, unless Iran wanted to pursue one.

I don't think Obama would have much choice either, but I also think the Israelis would bomb first and ask approval later.

 

[amicus]

I suggest it is a question of military strategy rather than one of 'will', or the approval or disapproval of the World Body.

Iran inherited what was left of the Iraqi Air Force and probably any left over, 'chemical' weapons stockpiled by Hussein. Iran is currently acquiring 'state of the art' air defense capabilities and just how much, 'stealth' technology the US has shared with Israel, one can only guess.

Iran already has Russian Missile technology and is capable of striking anywhere in Israel.

I would also suggest that Iran's oil income is sufficient to purchase both North Korean or Pakistani nuclear technology and if they don't have a weapon yet, they soon will.

I deduce that the Israeli Parliament has long discussed this issue and that sooner better than later, when they may not have overwhelming air supremacy, is the current thinking.

Although I don't vote in the few polls I have originated, my vote would be under 90 days but possibly closer to six months.

Amicus

 

[slyc_willie]

Hopefully, this would be a limited engagement too. I don't believe there would be a full-scale war, unless Iran wanted to pursue one.

I don't think Obama would have much choice either, but I also think the Israelis would bomb first and ask approval later.

Most likely. Israel isn't one to ask for permission. But they do take global politics and perception into account before they do anything. Apologies and assuaging are more easily handled after the fact.

 

[slyc_willie]

I suggest it is a question of military strategy rather than one of 'will', or the approval or disapproval of the World Body.

Iran inherited what was left of the Iraqi Air Force and probably any left over, 'chemical' weapons stockpiled by Hussein. Iran is currently acquiring 'state of the art' air defense capabilities and just how much, 'stealth' technology the US has shared with Israel, one can only guess.

Iran already has Russian Missile technology and is capable of striking anywhere in Israel.

I would also suggest that Iran's oil income is sufficient to purchase both North Korean or Pakistani nuclear technology and if they don't have a weapon yet, they soon will.

I deduce that the Israeli Parliament has long discussed this issue and that sooner better than later, when they may not have overwhelming air supremacy, is the current thinking.

Although I don't vote in the few polls I have originated, my vote would be under 90 days but possibly closer to six months.

Amicus

Iran has garnered quite a few connections as well as technology. Their aim is clear; to prove dominance in the Middle East, and to do so decisively, they need to take out Israel.

Their main problem is that Israel has many more advantages than Iran ever will. Namely, high technology and the backing of the US. If Iran were to engage in all-out war with Israel, they would be tantamount to declaring war on the US. And they don't want that. Because, Israel would respond without fear of reprisal, and reduce Iran to ashes.

 

[amicus]

Slyc

: "...Because, Israel would respond without fear of reprisal, and reduce Iran to ashes...."

You bring to light two interesting factors in the equation:, without fear of reprisal and...reduce to ashes...

Who would or could effect reprisal on Israel, if....? No one.

I doubt Israel would use a nuclear weapon to destroy the nuclear facilities, I think they would use high tech smart weapons with conventional explosives.

I do not trust the capabilities of the US supplied, Patriot Anti-Missile System, although surely enough time has passed since its' failure in the first Gulf War to have perfected it.

Israel is not a large country. The Port of Haifa and Tel Aviv would be targetted, Haifa from perhaps a cargo ship decoy, Tel Aviv from the air.

Once again, I just don't think Israel can wait for provocation, large or small; the stakes are just too high.

I further think the US, under this administration, would sit on the sidelines unless Israel were actually invaded and about to be overwhelmed.

Amicus

 

[slyc_willie]

Slyc

You bring to light two interesting factors in the equation:, without fear of reprisal and...reduce to ashes...

Who would or could effect reprisal on Israel, if....? No one.

The only way in which Israel is militarily deficient is in numbers of soldiers. Should Iran, Syria, and any other allies who felt they have a stake in the outcome band together, Israel would face an army ten times its size. Now, greater technology can have a tremendous effect in battle (witness the first Gulf War), but it has its limits.

I doubt Israel would use a nuclear weapon to destroy the nuclear facilities, I think they would use high tech smart weapons with conventional explosives.

Without a doubt. But the best technology, as we've found, would have a hard enough time finding even a single nuclear weapon hidden away in the hills and caves which have been known to the people of the area for millennia.

I do not trust the capabilities of the US supplied, Patriot Anti-Missile System, although surely enough time has passed since its' failure in the first Gulf War to have perfected it.

Israel is not a large country. The Port of Haifa and Tel Aviv would be targetted, Haifa from perhaps a cargo ship decoy, Tel Aviv from the air.

Once again, I just don't think Israel can wait for provocation, large or small; the stakes are just too high.

I further think the US, under this administration, would sit on the sidelines unless Israel were actually invaded and about to be overwhelmed.

Amicus

Maybe, but probably not. The US would wait for a "go" signal from the UN -- for which the US would push stringently until given -- and then respond in force. As I said before, the US cannot afford to lose Israel.

 

[amicus]

All reasonable statements, Slyc, and I appreciate your contributions.

I suggest that Israel learned a lesson when the Soviet supplied SAM's devastated their Air Force; that of learning how to deal with overwhelming numbers of men and equipment.

An earlier statement you made, that Iran desires domination in the Middle East and cannot achieve that while Israel exists. That leads me to 'speculate' on a combined Arab or Muslim Axis to invade and occupy Israel if a nuclear attack were partially or wholly successful.

I watched a couple films about hidden nukes, one with Nicole Kidman and another with Jennifer Beals, "Stealth", I think. I read somewhere that, "Suitcase Nukes", are mainly an invention of Tom Clancy or the "24" series and really not feasible. But granted, hiding a weapon is certainly possible but is practically useless as the means to deliver it must be at hand and I would again speculate that neither ship nor plane will be permitted anywhere near Israel.

The 'perception' I gather from the new administration is that the US, as you surmised, will not act until tacit approval from the UN and that only after long negotiations. My point would be that both Iran and Israel realize that and both will act as they have spoken, one to eliminate Israel and one to pre-empt any attack.

I see it as the horns of a dilemma for most of the rest of the world. In my 'best case scenario', both the US and Israel, or NATO, including the US and Israel, would act as one to eliminate the nuclear threat from Iran.

Yes, I know, but what then of North Korea? China...is the stumbling block there.

Gonna be scary if my projections of 'when', are accurate, eh?

Thanks again and a pleasant evening to you.

Amicus

 

[ishtat]

What is in US interests?

I think the best from the US point of view would be to very publicly warn both Iran and Israel to avoid military action but privately tell Israel that the US will look the other way but not defend their possible actions.

That would be enough to give the Israelis the green light:-

Iran's nuclear capacity would be demolished.
Iran's theocracy might well be toppled from within.
The Arabs would be delighted as they are scared stiff of the Iranians.
The Israelis would have to take the blame of liberal opinion.

The US could then tell the North Koreans that China might be given a similar green light.

The only governing factor should be " what is in the best interests of the US"

 

[Liar]

Iran is still a pretty confusing mess since the so-called election. The President and the Supreme Leader duking it out, other top ayathollas in loud dissent, the moderate grassroots opposition still not subdued, the military and militias not sure what to do...

I think that IF Israel is thinking about doing anything, they'll wait til they know who's behind the reins over there, or they'll have no idea what the reaction will be. Israel's foreign policy may be agressive, but never careless. There are too many unknowns right now to throw in a match.

 

[Weird Harold]

...Iran is currently acquiring 'state of the art' air defense capabilities and just how much, 'stealth' technology the US has shared with Israel, one can only guess. ...

The technology transfers regarding how to deal with high tech air defense capabilities isn't a one-way street -- Israel invented the first Radar Homing and Warning Systems and Anti-radiation missiles and last I heard, the replacement for the F-4G Wild Weasels is still an Israeli designed variant of the F-16.

A year or more ago, Israel very publicly demonstrated that they have the range to attack Iran without intermediate basing in US occupied Iraq. Iran's nuclear facilities have been on about a 72 hour leash ever since.

I have no opinion regarding when Israel will launch an strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, but I have no doubt that they have the capability and the will to do so whenever they feel the situation requires it.

Unfortunately for Israel, M.A.D doesn't seem to be a viable deterent if the radical Mullahs gain control of Iran's nuclear weapons program.

 

[R. Richard]

If Israel decides to eliminate Iran's nukes, it'll be done at the time everyone, especially the Iranians, least expect it.

 

[Boxlicker101]

If Israel decides to eliminate Iran's nukes, it'll be done at the time everyone, especially the Iranians, least expect it.

Well, they certainly aren't going to announce it. The attack will be a massive and devestating air raid, possibly followed up with paratroopers to destroy anything that's left, incljuding any surviving technicians or scientists.

Anything that's worth doing is worth doing well. Many parts of the world, including many Americans and Europeans will castigate them for it, but those same people already hate the Israelis, for a variety of reasons, and it's better to be a live pariah than a radioactive one.

 

[DesertPirate]

Israel will strike when they think it's time. Just like Saddam's reactor in 82 or the 6 Day war in 67. The don't seem concerned about world opinion.

 

[R. Richard]

Well, they certainly aren't going to announce it. The attack will be a massive and devestating air raid, possibly followed up with paratroopers to destroy anything that's left, incljuding any surviving technicians or scientists.

The Israelis, of course, don't announce their attacks in advance. However, they're very good at using the enemy's weaknesses to time their strike. In the 'Raid On The Sun,' they struck as all of the Iraqis were at lunch. [Of course, in a political operation, such as Saddam's Iraq, you have to be at lunch with all the other slaves, or you might miss some political nuance.] In several of the brief wars, they often let the attackers in one front have their way,until they destroyed the key attack. Then they wiped out the other front.

It's more likely that the Israelis will use bunker buster bombs to get to the bomb factory. I would then hit the bomb factory with an old style nuke, so that I could later claim that it was an Iranian nuke that went off, not an Israeli nuke.

 

[DesertPirate]

The Israelis, of course, don't announce their attacks in advance. However, they're very good at using the enemy's weaknesses to time their strike. In the 'Raid On The Sun,' they struck as all of the Iraqis were at lunch. [Of course, in a political operation, such as Saddam's Iraq, you have to be at lunch with all the other slaves, or you might miss some political nuance.] In several of the brief wars, they often let the attackers in one front have their way,until they destroyed the key attack. Then they wiped out the other front.

It's more likely that the Israelis will use bunker buster bombs to get to the bomb factory. I would then hit the bomb factory with an old style nuke, so that I could later claim that it was an Iranian nuke that went off, not an Israeli nuke.

Teams will sample the radioactive particles and will be able to identify the origin. There are sample from almost every reactor in the world in a database and there are traceable differences.

 

[TE999]

Israel has an advanced weapons R&D program that either creates or retrofits weapons systems to suit their needs from missles to handguns. They have fixed the Patriot's glitches plus developed an anti-missile system of their own. Aircraft purchased from other nations are rebuilt internally, externally primarily look the same but perform more effectively. Especially in the ground attack role.

The US's support of the Israelis waxes and wanes with the political winds, but overall it's steadfast. It's the only mideast country that we can trust. I imagine their agents know exactly where the Iranians are in constructing nukes and where they are. If the threat is reasonably imminent, they will strike, not sit on their hands asking the UN 'mother may I'.

I'm guessin' 6 months.

 

[R. Richard]

Teams will sample the radioactive particles and will be able to identify the origin. There are sample from almost every reactor in the world in a database and there are traceable differences.

That sort of sampling would require the Iranians to allow inspection teams in to do the sampling, something that the Iranians might well not allow.

 

[JackLuis]

That sort of sampling would require the Iranians to allow inspection teams in to do the sampling, something that the Iranians might well not allow.

High altitude samples may be enough and NASA is still running their U-2 or what ever it is called. Or, the AF could send up one of theirs? If they nuked the center of the country with a ground burst, the residue would pass thru Afghanistan airspace.

But I yield to DP, about if this would work.