Trump Admin going out there on Taiwan

[TheGreatOz]

I understand where both of you are coming from, but I honestly feel you’re being naive & short sighted.

DonOld will NOT always be calling the shots in the U.S. (he has about another year to do Putin’s work).

Meanwhile, ceding near TOTAL control of ANOTHER key industry to China will only strengthen their grip on the world.

If Australians haven’t learned from the Chinese Navy’s water cannon attacks, rammings, etc, on the Philippine Coast Guard, etc, and the dangerous behavior of the Chinese Air Force that an empowered & emboldened China is an unacceptable risk / danger to the free world, then I don’t know what else to say…



We. Told. Them. So.

I'm not just directing this to you personally but a general observation. As the top dog Americans aren't great from seeing the world from other, smaller countries perspectives. In particular you are bad at seeing this in terms of anything other than how you perceive it from an angle of great power competition, a strategic angle if you like.

Imagine you are not a great power though and have limited ability to direct world affairs. Imagine you are Australia.

Our interests and American interests are not the same. We have just rebuffed your demands that we commit to war for Taiwan and we're right to do so.

We dont say "fuck off" to a friend that would not be diplomatic. Instead we politely decline the demand and send our Prime Minister on a lovefest to China spruiking trade and Australian-Chinese friendship as we have just done. He was right to do so. It was a very successfull trip. I mean we dont say "fuck off" but the message is clear.

Our interests and American interests are not the same. The job of Australia's leaders is to advance Australia's interests. The US is our main security partner, China is our main economic partner. So for a country like Australia we seek to balance our interests.

You might or might not know the importance of the Chinese-Australian trade. It's on a colossal scale. It dwarfs US-Australia trade. If we ceased trading with the US, it would be inconvenient, if we ceased trading with China, entire industries and Australian living standards would collapse.

Our biggest role in any war between the US and China has already been performed. We built the Chinese war machine. That's Australian steel and aluminium that built all those ships, aircraft and weapons that will be used to sink American ships.

If you lose your war with China, once it's over we will go back to selling them more. If you win it, the same. Because that's in our interest.

We will of course denounce any Chinese attack on Taiwan. Stern words and sanctions will follow. We'll allow you to use your existing bases, easy for us since you're already there.

You might be angry if you dont get more but you'll get over it, life goes on. You were angry with the French when they didn't play ball with you over Iraq. You wanted them to get down on their knees and lick your ballsack like the United Kingdom did. Later on most of you realised that France had been your better friend in that scenario all along and tried to prevent a colossal mistake.

 

[ChloeTzang]

Quite simply, Trump has fucked over Australia, Japan and South Korea on trade. It's very unlikely any of them will involve themselves now in any conflict with China over Taiwan. Why would they? Trump has shown them the USA does not regard them as a friend and ally.

Worse yet, the USA encouraged Europe to get involved in supporting Ukraine and then Trump has backed out and left the Europeans holding the bag. Europe ain't gonna help in the slightest. They're too busy dealing with Russia.

With Ukraine and his Trade Wars, Trump has ensured the USA no longer has any allies who will involve themselves in a US war. Many of these former alllies are realigning themselves, and China is positioning itself to be their tradubf partner of choice. As The GreatOz pinted out, Australia does far more trade with China than with the US and other countries are realigning that way. I wouldn't be surprised to see Canada go down that road too - they NEED to diversify away from the USA given the trade war Trump has launched at them. Rather than turning Canada into a 51st State, Trump has ensured that Canada is looking elsewhere forreliable trading partners, and finding them too.

I'm sure Taiwan can do their own analysis. Their best bets are drones and nukes and a very strong military. They don't however seem to have any sense of urgency. My take is, when they are attacked, they will go down fast, the USA won't be able to do a thing about it, no other country will now step in to help, and if the USA does get involved, the US Navy will be toasted and the USA's days as THE world superpower will come to a close.

 

[Lazaran]

I'm not just directing this to you personally but a general observation. As the top dog Americans aren't great from seeing the world from other, smaller countries perspectives. In particular you are bad at seeing this in terms of anything other than how you perceive it from an angle of great power competition, a strategic angle if you like.

Imagine you are not a great power though and have limited ability to direct world affairs. Imagine you are Australia.

Our interests and American interests are not the same. We have just rebuffed your demands that we commit to war for Taiwan and we're right to do so.

We dont say "fuck off" to a friend that would not be diplomatic. Instead we politely decline the demand and send our Prime Minister on a lovefest to China spruiking trade and Australian-Chinese friendship as we have just done. He was right to do so. It was a very successfull trip. I mean we dont say "fuck off" but the message is clear.

Our interests and American interests are not the same. The job of Australia's leaders is to advance Australia's interests. The US is our main security partner, China is our main economic partner. So for a country like Australia we seek to balance our interests.

You might or might not know the importance of the Chinese-Australian trade. It's on a colossal scale. It dwarfs US-Australia trade. If we ceased trading with the US, it would be inconvenient, if we ceased trading with China, entire industries and Australian living standards would collapse.

Our biggest role in any war between the US and Australia has already been performed. We built the Chinese war machine. That's Australian steel and aluminium that built all those ships, aircraft and weapons that will be used to sink American ships.

If you lose your war with China, once it's over we will go back to selling them more. If you win it, the same. Because that's in our interest.

We will of course denounce any Chinese attack on Taiwan. Stern words and sanctions will follow. We'll allow you to use your existing bases, easy for us since you're already there.

You might be angry if you dont get more but you'll get over it, life goes on. You were angry with the French when they didn't play ball with you over Iraq. You wanted them to get down on their knees and lick your ballsack like the United Kingdom did. Later on most of you realised that France had been your better friend in that scenario all along and tried to prevent a colossal mistake.

So, naive, short sighted, AND sociopathically transactional…

In a word: “MAGA” (Make Australia Great Again?)

In more words: “DonOld Trump & MAGA epitomized”.



Yeah, I understand you perfectly now…





We. Told. Them. So.

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

Quite simply, Trump has fucked over Australia, Japan and South Korea on trade. It's very unlikely any of them will involve themselves now in any conflict with China over Taiwan. Why would they? Trump has shown them the USA does not regard them as a friend and ally.

Worse yet, the USA encouraged Europe to get involved in supporting Ukraine and then Trump has backed out and left the Europeans holding the bag. Europe ain't gonna help in the slightest. They're too busy dealing with Russia.

With Ukraine and his Trade Wars, Trump has ensured the USA no longer has any allies who will involve themselves in a US war. Many of these former alllies are realigning themselves, and China is positioning itself to be their tradubf partner of choice. As The GreatOz pinted out, Australia does far more trade with China than with the US and other countries are realigning that way. I wouldn't be surprised to see Canada go down that road too - they NEED to diversify away from the USA given the trade war Trump has launched at them. Rather than turning Canada into a 51st State, Trump has ensured that Canada is looking elsewhere forreliable trading partners, and finding them too.

I'm sure Taiwan can do their own analysis. Their best bets are drones and nukes and a very strong military. They don't however seem to have any sense of urgency. My take is, when they are attacked, they will go down fast, the USA won't be able to do a thing about it, no other country will now step in to help, and if the USA does get involved, the US Navy will be toasted and the USA's days as THE world superpower will come to a close.

Are you kidding? Japan, Australia, South Korea see China as an existential threat. They absolutely would get involved if or when China strikes Taiwan.

Why do you oppose Europe taking the primary role in defending Ukraine?

 

[Lazaran]

Quite simply, Trump has fucked over Australia, Japan and South Korea on trade. It's very unlikely any of them will involve themselves now in any conflict with China over Taiwan. Why would they? Trump has shown them the USA does not regard them as a friend and ally.

Worse yet, the USA encouraged Europe to get involved in supporting Ukraine and then Trump has backed out and left the Europeans holding the bag. Europe ain't gonna help in the slightest. They're too busy dealing with Russia.

With Ukraine and his Trade Wars, Trump has ensured the USA no longer has any allies who will involve themselves in a US war. Many of these former alllies are realigning themselves, and China is positioning itself to be their tradubf partner of choice. As The GreatOz pinted out, Australia does far more trade with China than with the US and other countries are realigning that way. I wouldn't be surprised to see Canada go down that road too - they NEED to diversify away from the USA given the trade war Trump has launched at them. Rather than turning Canada into a 51st State, Trump has ensured that Canada is looking elsewhere forreliable trading partners, and finding them too.

I'm sure Taiwan can do their own analysis. Their best bets are drones and nukes and a very strong military. They don't however seem to have any sense of urgency. My take is, when they are attacked, they will go down fast, the USA won't be able to do a thing about it, no other country will now step in to help, and if the USA does get involved, the US Navy will be toasted and the USA's days as THE world superpower will come to a close.

JFC, Chloe, you seem to get everything just wrong - before finally coming around to reality & the truth.



1) President Biden set up Ukraine’s defense coalition to withstand DonOld & the MAGAt traitors - and President Biden also set up Taiwan’s defense coalition to withstand DonOld & the MAGAt traitors as well (Australia wasn’t really being counted on to any great extent to participate in a near future war with China over Taiwan anyway, because, let’s be real, it’s Australia. The U.K., France, Japan, the Philippines, South Korea, etc would be the primary allied coalition.

2) If a Chinese attack on Taiwan is deemed to be imminent by U.S. intelligence agencies / the military (NOT Tulsi Gabbard & Pete Hegseth, etc), and DonOld & the MAGAt traitors (Tulsi Gabbard & Pete Hogarth, etc) don’t take the appropriate action(s), then you can expect a sudden change in CIC, etc, within a few hours / days / weeks depending on how imminent the threat appears to be.





There DOES come a point where vested interests rule day.

Can U.S. intelligence agencies / the military truly afford to be completely "emasculated" by China???



Can the U.S. power brokers & tech bros truly tolerate the expropriation of their investments & intellectual property in Taiwan without a fight???



Yeah, no…



We. Told. Them. So.

 

[Lazaran]

Are you kidding? Japan, Australia, South Korea see China as an existential threat. They absolutely would get involved if or when China strikes Taiwan.

Why do you oppose Europe taking the primary role in defending Ukraine?

BabyBoobs must have missed where Australia just told DonOld to pound sand about committing troops to a China - U.S. conflict involving Taiwan AND post #51 from an ACTUAL Australian.



Also:

Does BabyBoobs believe Europe should get the Ukrainian mineral deal too???



If Europe is to be the lead in the support / defense of Ukraine, then it seems only fair that they should get the mineral deal too.



BabyBoobs



We. Told. Them. So.

 

[TheGreatOz]

So, naive, short sighted, AND sociopathically transactional…

In a word: “MAGA” (Make Australia Great Again?)

In more words: “DonOld Trump & MAGA epitomized”.



Yeah, I understand you perfectly now…





We. Told. Them. So.

We don't want China to attack Taiwan. We like the status quo. We don't want to get into a war with our most important economic partner. The consequences of that are severe to us.

We also think if that war comes that you are going to lose it. That's a consensus view of analysts here.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02...hina-look-like-for-australia-part-1/101328632

Its been years since I've met anyone in defence circles here who is confident you can win. We dont want to be dragged into a losing war. We hope you have enough simple common sense to stay the fuck out of it yourselves and definitely to leave us the fuck out of it. It's not in our interests or yours.

We're well aware that you lose simulations and wargames of this eventuality. Do you think our defence community isn't aware that in 2018 and 2019 to name a couple of examples that you lost these games, with the US incurring 'catastrophic losses' (those aren't my words, it's the term used in US defense reporting of the outcomes) with the 2018 loss incurred in 'record time'. You got wiped.

https://www.defensenews.com/trainin...eds-to-hold-off-or-win-against-china-in-2030/

This isn't the 90s anymore. You get hammered with even the times you win these wargames coming at the cost of multiple carriers, dozens of ships and hundreds of aircraft.

We don't think you can supply Taiwan. We think this because the analysts in these games write judgements after the games like "it will be impossible to provide Taiwan with additional supplies" because the sea lanes are too long and too vulnerable to attack.

We don't think you can maintain the US airbases on Taiwan or Okinawa in the event of war. They are just far too close and exposed and vulnerable to attack to remain viable. You have few other base options. Guam is a bit safer (still in range of missile strikes but distance provides some additional protection) but is too remote and flight time greatly reduces the number of sorties you can run out of there.

It's just a bad match up, the worst place to fight a numerically stronger enemy is at the place where it's easiest for him to apply force but where geography limits you.

The fact that you're going around the entire Asian-Pacific region trying to bully your unwilling allies into signing up for your war reveals your own lack of confidence. It stinks of desperation. If the US really believed it will wipe China in just a few days then you don't need us. You'll have won such an easy war before the huge forces of Australia could even arrive to save the day! You dont need us, you got this!

 

[HisArpy]

Alternate reality, isn't that new name for the USA?

Actually, it's whatever comfy safe space you run to in order to avoid facing the consequences of your actions.

BTW, you're wrong. The US is China's largest trading partner, not Australia. According to the link here, Australia is #7.

You should get that comfy safe space of yours ready, you're going to need it.

 

[adlon]

Actually, it's whatever comfy safe space you run to in order to avoid facing the consequences of your actions.

BTW, you're wrong. The US is China's largest trading partner, not Australia. According to the link here, Australia is #7.

You should get that comfy safe space of yours ready, you're going to need it.

Here's your problem, your reading comprehension is fucked.

I didn't that Australia was China's largest trading partner, I said China is Australia's largest trading.

Try and read things correctly not with your blinkers on. Now feel free to go annoy someone else because on this occasion I bow to Mark Twain and thoughts of arguing with idiots.

 

[ChloeTzang]

Dangerous Straits: Wargaming a Future Conflict over Taiwan​

This is from a 2022 wargame - before it was apparent that drones were changing things.....

The wargame indicated there is no quick victory for either side if China decides to invade Taiwan. Neither side felt as though it had lost the fight over Taiwan, and even though China hoped to achieve a swift and decisive victory, it was prepared for a long fight. Beijing was faced with a dilemma: whether to keep the war limited and hope the United States did not become involved, or to preemptively strike U.S. targets to improve Chinese probability of success, but at the high cost of prolonging the conflict. In such a scenario, neither Beijing nor Washington is likely to have the upper hand after the first week of the conflict, which suggests a protracted conflict.

Moreover, a conflict over Taiwan may quickly lead to consequences far beyond what Beijing and Washington intend. The wargame demonstrated how quickly a conflict could escalate, with both China and the United States crossing red lines. There is a high risk that deterrent signals may be misread in a potential future fight due to differences in military strengths and weaknesses, and these shape the types of escalation Beijing and Washington are likely to select. As the wargame illustrated, despite its declared policy of no first use, China may be willing to brandish nuclear weapons or conduct a limited demonstration of its nuclear capability in an effort to prevent or end U.S. involvement in a conflict with Taiwan.

However, all these wargame results should probably be thrown out the window as a result of the Russo-Ukraine war. It's more than likely that in conflict over Taiwan, US bases everywhere would be hit by massive drone attacks. We have no real defenses in place that could cope with waves of thousands of drones attacking simutaneously. China would no doubt plan to take out our naval and air assets first - thing of those Ukraine containers opening up an taking out the Russian strategic bomber fleet. Jow thing of Chinese container ships opening up and launching thousands of drones against East and West Coast bases, as well as across the Pacific and Asia. Add in warehouses within the US being used as the bases for attacks internally across the length and breadth of the USA. If I can think that, bet your life the Chinese military are.

Factor in naval drones as well, and look how easily Ukrainian sea drones came in and took out Russian naval assets. We might be better at defense that the Russians, but think hundreds of sea drones targeting and individual ship and repeated however many times there are targets. Then factor in millions of drones and thousands of missiles comeing across the Taiwan Strait.....our ass would be grass before we had time to blink.

And the US will NOT start a nuclear war over Taiwan. Nope. We would lose. We don't have countermeasures in place yet. Ukraine is, like the Spanish Civil War, a warning of what may come.

https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/dangerous-straits-wargaming-a-future-conflict-over-taiwans

 

[HisArpy]

Here's your problem, your reading comprehension is fucked.

I didn't that Australia was China's largest trading partner, I said China is Australia's largest trading.

Try and read things correctly not with your blinkers on. Now feel free to go annoy someone else because on this occasion I bow to Mark Twain and thoughts of arguing with idiots.

The point I was making, which you seemed to have missed completely, is that Australia doesn't mean shit to China in terms of trade. The US is the world's largest economy. We are, directly, China's largest trading partner and consumer of Chinese goods. That means that the US has leverage over China economically.

Australia on its own, not so much.

And if push comes to shove, China won't hesitate to steam roller Australia, and the rest of the S. Pacific, because the trade will still be there. What won't be is Australia except as a Chinese territory.

I also question your crowing about how your steel and copper built the Chinese military as if it's a good thing to arm your enemy so they can conquer you. But, you know, stupid is as stupid does and you're about the dumbest of the stupids here. I merely have to point out your "China is 8000 miles away so we don't have to worry about them" nonsense in the day and age of ICBM's and nuclear missiles as the level of stupid you're exhibiting.

But you go ahead and talk about my supposed lack of reading comprehension. All while you fail to edit your posts to fix the problem of absent words. Perhaps that's because the foam and spittle spewing onto your screen as you type is preventing you from engaging your intellect before you hit post.

 

[ChloeTzang]

The point I was making, which you seemed to have missed completely, is that Australia doesn't mean shit to China in terms of trade. The US is the world's largest economy. We are, directly, China's largest trading partner and consumer of Chinese goods. That means that the US has leverage over China economically.

Australia on its own, not so much.

It's the same for a lot of countries - China has turned into a huge market for all of them -when I was in New Zealand a few years ago now I was amazed by the extent of Chinese investment there, and also the # of Chinese living there. NZ exports $42 billion a year
- $11 b to China (+ $739m to Hong Kong)
- $5.5 b to the US
- $5 b to Australia
- $2.3 b to Japan
- $1.3 b to South Korea
- $1b to Singapore
- $1b to the UK

8 out of 10 of their biggest markets are in Asia
China is over double the size of their next biggest market, the US. Losing access to the US market would hurt them - but Trump has already started that economic war with them and every other country in the world
Their economica survival is now dependent on China. China is using that as an incentive and hook - and given Trump's actions, he has handed that to China on a plate. China has already won the economic war. Trump has forced our former allies to turn to China for survival.

Australia and New Zealand are doing it. Canada iis realigning with the EU and with the Asian market - China, Japan, South Korea, Indoneasia, etc.
China is at a point now where cutting access to the US will hurt them but not kill them, and Trump has now forced Japan and South Korea into a position where they have more in common with China than with the USA.

No-one in Asia is going to join the USA in a war with China over Taiwan. They literally cannot afford to. China is more important to them economically than the USA, and instead of moving to tie these countries even more closely with the USA economically, Trump has pushed them away, launched what amounts to an economic war on them, and been very undiplomatic about it. Face means a lot in Asian, esp north Asia, and Japan in particular - and Trump has pretty much offended ALL Japanese and Chinese. Japan is remilitaizing as it is, but they are now far more likely to staty neutral in any conflict. As for Canaa, they've got nothing for any war in Asian that would be any use anyhow. Their navy is obsolete, so forget them. Likewise NZ. Aussie would be token, if anything - their focus is on any threat from Indoneasia more than anything. As for the EU, after the way Trump hasrolled on Ukraine, we can't expect anything more than token assistance from anything except, maybe, if they're suckers, the Royal Navy.

The USA is on its own in this one, and its likely our Navy would be toasted before we could get anywhere near Taiwan. The Air force too. Taiwan's only real hope are missiles to take out the Three Gorges dam, and drones and nukes to take out any invasion fleet. They better have their nuke program running on high speed.

And all of this is made more and more likely due to Biden and Trump's failures and lack of strategic vision over Ukraine.

 

[adlon]

The point I was making, which you seemed to have missed completely, is that Australia doesn't mean shit to China in terms of trade. The US is the world's largest economy. We are, directly, China's largest trading partner and consumer of Chinese goods. That means that the US has leverage over China economically.

Australia on its own, not so much.

And if push comes to shove, China won't hesitate to steam roller Australia, and the rest of the S. Pacific, because the trade will still be there. What won't be is Australia except as a Chinese territory.

I also question your crowing about how your steel and copper built the Chinese military as if it's a good thing to arm your enemy so they can conquer you. But, you know, stupid is as stupid does and you're about the dumbest of the stupids here. I merely have to point out your "China is 8000 miles away so we don't have to worry about them" nonsense in the day and age of ICBM's and nuclear missiles as the level of stupid you're exhibiting.

But you go ahead and talk about my supposed lack of reading comprehension. All while you fail to edit your posts to fix the problem of absent words. Perhaps that's because the foam and spittle spewing onto your screen as you type is preventing you from engaging your intellect before you hit post.

You seem angry.
Is your tiny penis bothering you?

 

[ChloeTzang]

You seem angry.
Is your tiny penis bothering you?

Silly boy.

Those were some valid discussion points. I'm sure you can post cock comparison shots on the General Board.

 

[adlon]

Silly boy.

Those were some valid discussion points. I'm sure you can post cock comparison shots on the General Board.

No point. Mine is incomparable, it's going on display in a museum when I die.

 

[ChloeTzang]

Quoted from an email newsletter I get.

I notice interesting military trends which more than hint at a pattern, at least from an historical perspective. T
- Taiwan, Japan, and Australia are seriously arming up.
- South Korea, Philippines, and Vietnam ... less so, but significantly.
- India are close to a largely indigenous nuclear "triad" [ICBMs, bombers, and submarines] and are pushing hard to field a powerful Indo-Pacific blue-water navy.
- Britain and France are harmonising their nuclear "deterrent" systems, navies, air forces, and (France) land armies.
- Poland is massively buttressing its military, as are (smaller) Sweden and Finland. T
- Turkey and its Kurdish rebels are working on an enduring end to the PKK guerrilla war ... to "focus on larger issues".
- The US is onshoring everything possible, as fast as possible and pushing defence production on steroids, as well we should IMO.

The scenes are being built. The actors are moving into place during rehearsals. It will focus on Taiwan, and it will probably [be what it takes] to rid the world of communism-- at least outside of university faculty lounges.

China is definitely being surrounded, and that’s its own fault. In it’s pre-Xi mercantile days, people weren’t particularly scared. The Chinese have alarmed their neighbors into, effectively, hemming them in. China could probably beat any of these neighbors (well, maybe not Japan or Korea, possibly not India, though terrain makes a full-blown land war with India difficult to even start) but it can’t beat all of them, and the costs of going to war with any of them are substantial, especially given China’s economic and political fragility. (And the fragility of the Three Gorges Dam, rumored to be Taiwan’s chief target in a war, which would drown huge numbers of people and even huger proportions of China’s productive capacity.)

But yeah, there are signs of something brewing. Just as in 1939-1941, the United States is (late as always) beginning to look at its Navy and Merchant Marine capacity, beginning to update its army and get serious about recruiting, etc. Perhaps these preparations will have a deterrent effect. Perhaps China will be preoccupied with internal struggles soon. (But perhaps China will turn to war as a distraction from those internal struggles). But if history doesn’t repeat itself, it sometimes rhymes.

Meanwhile, there are parallels in the United States to the runup to a different kind of war: An increasing division between North and South, Democratic “fire eaters” calling for violence — and sometimes even secession — and an increased amount of left-wing violence from groups like Antifa and various militias.

I’ve read Kurt Schlichter’s The Attack, a novel about a 10/7 style attack on the United States, and I’m currently reading his American Apocalypse, a (fictional, so far) oral history of a second American Civil War.

Somehow both of those struck me when I was at The Breakers in Florida last week. We’ve gone there on and off for 20 years, for conventions (the Southeastern Association of Law Schools has met there a lot) and for family trips. What we noticed this year was a drastic increase in security.
- They always had an entrance with a guardhouse where they checked your ID as you arrived, and there was always an off-duty Palm Beach cop hanging out in the lobby.
- But there are a lot more security people (both visible and less-so) nowadays. It’s now multiple Palm Beach cops, with more stationed by the entrance to the pool area (now gated), which used to just have a Breakers flunky sitting at a desk.
- Room keys now only take your elevator to your floor; you can’t go anywhere else except the public lobby and mezzanine levels.
- And most strikingly to me, the vehicle gates, which used to be the usual token wooden barriers that are designed to break off if someone drives into them, there are now heavy duty military style steel-beam gates that slot into big metal brackets at both ends. They look like they’d stop a truck. You don’t normally see them at pleasure resorts, at least not in this country.

I suspect that this is in part due to Trump’s presence just down the road at Mar-a-Lago. Not only does that have the potential for attracting crazed lefties and terrorists, but many visiting foreign leaders apparently stay at The Breakers instead of Mar-a-Lago for reasons of independence, or simply space. And, of course, The Breakers was recently the scene of an arriving boatload of immigrants from places as diverse as Romania, Ecuador, and the Dominican Republic. Palm Beach police and ICE rounded them up quickly and hauled them away. One Breakers guest commented: “They’re rounding them up. I think it’s excellent.” I can hardly think of a worse place to land your migrant-smuggling boat.

I’m all for solid security — I seldom visit a place without thinking about how it could be safer, and I used to make a game out of penetrating allegedly secure places without showing ID, etc. (Once a friend was surprised when I turned up at the door of his apartment in an allegedly super secure building favored by diplomats; I had just struck up a conversation with the family entering ahead of me and followed them in.) But if you assume, as I tend to, that security is usually less than it really needs to be (except after something happens, when it’s usually more, or more likely just more theatrical) then the boost is a bit worrisome.

I’m pretty optimistic about the way the country is going, but I fear there may be some bumpiness along the way.

And to tie these two things together, I have a suspicion that much of the lefty activism in the United States is pushed by China. And I also suspect that the Pakistani invasion of the UK has been pushed by the Pakistani intelligence service, the ISI, which of course often works with China. Softening up the social fabric, while putting sleeper agents in place? Pretty sure I know what Kurt Schlichter would think.

 

[HisArpy]

You seem angry.
Is your tiny penis bothering you?

At least I have something I can actually see without a magnifying glass. Hell, I can even see it without needing my reading glasses.


Unlike yourself and most Lit Libs who pee by braille.

 

[HisArpy]

It's the same for a lot of countries - China has turned into a huge market for all of them -when I was in New Zealand a few years ago now I was amazed by the extent of Chinese investment there, and also the # of Chinese living there. NZ exports $42 billion a year
- $11 b to China (+ $739m to Hong Kong)
- $5.5 b to the US
- $5 b to Australia
- $2.3 b to Japan
- $1.3 b to South Korea
- $1b to Singapore
- $1b to the UK

8 out of 10 of their biggest markets are in Asia
China is over double the size of their next biggest market, the US. Losing access to the US market would hurt them - but Trump has already started that economic war with them and every other country in the world
Their economica survival is now dependent on China. China is using that as an incentive and hook - and given Trump's actions, he has handed that to China on a plate. China has already won the economic war. Trump has forced our former allies to turn to China for survival.

Australia and New Zealand are doing it. Canada iis realigning with the EU and with the Asian market - China, Japan, South Korea, Indoneasia, etc.
China is at a point now where cutting access to the US will hurt them but not kill them, and Trump has now forced Japan and South Korea into a position where they have more in common with China than with the USA.

No-one in Asia is going to join the USA in a war with China over Taiwan. They literally cannot afford to. China is more important to them economically than the USA, and instead of moving to tie these countries even more closely with the USA economically, Trump has pushed them away, launched what amounts to an economic war on them, and been very undiplomatic about it. Face means a lot in Asian, esp north Asia, and Japan in particular - and Trump has pretty much offended ALL Japanese and Chinese. Japan is remilitaizing as it is, but they are now far more likely to staty neutral in any conflict. As for Canaa, they've got nothing for any war in Asian that would be any use anyhow. Their navy is obsolete, so forget them. Likewise NZ. Aussie would be token, if anything - their focus is on any threat from Indoneasia more than anything. As for the EU, after the way Trump hasrolled on Ukraine, we can't expect anything more than token assistance from anything except, maybe, if they're suckers, the Royal Navy.

The USA is on its own in this one, and its likely our Navy would be toasted before we could get anywhere near Taiwan. The Air force too. Taiwan's only real hope are missiles to take out the Three Gorges dam, and drones and nukes to take out any invasion fleet. They better have their nuke program running on high speed.

And all of this is made more and more likely due to Biden and Trump's failures and lack of strategic vision over Ukraine.

I think the strategic failures with China you're talking about go back several Presidencies, beginning somewhere in the 1980's and our attempts at nation building.

Just like the strategic failures in the Middle East began for the same reasons.

The US has a very long history of being a political and economic white elephant. No other nation is like America so our way of doing things seems odd to the rest of the world. Just as their societal lack of liberty seems odd to us.

What no one seems to see is that despite this difference in national operation, and the faux disdain from other nations who cry and screech because we're not going to give them financial handouts and subsidies anymore, we are the apex society on the planet. Not China, not the EU, not Canada, and certainly not Australia; us.

And that should be telling people something. Unfortunately most people can't find their way out of their closet without a map, so expecting them to pick up on a reality they actively deny is a hard sell.

 

[ishtat]

US exports to Australia $50 Billion pa.
Australian exports to USA $24 Billion pa.
Minus $26 Billion

China exports to Australia $66 Billion pa.
Austrralia exports to China $114 Billion pa. A very rare country with a positive balance of Trade with China.
Plus $48 Billion

And some of you guys think that we will give pre-meditated support to the USA over the Taiwan issue?

 

[Baztrachian]

Quite simply, Trump has fucked over Australia, Japan and South Korea on trade.

https://www.fool.com/research/us-trade-balance/

In 2024 we had a US$68bn trade deficit with Japan.
In 2024 we had a US$66bn trade deficit with South Korea
In 2024 we had a US $17bn trade surplus with Australia

In 2024 Australia was reprimanded by the US for dumping products onto the American market.

https://www.federalregister.gov/doc...limitations-under-the-us-australia-free-trade

Interestingly, Australia is benefiting from Trump's policy change with their US$17bn trade deficit becoming a more balanced US$1.7bn trade surplus in their favor. That's quite the antithesis of 'fucked over'.

https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c6021.html

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

https://www.fool.com/research/us-trade-balance/

In 2024 we had a US$68bn trade deficit with Japan.
In 2024 we had a US$66bn trade deficit with South Korea
In 2024 we had a US $17bn trade surplus with Australia

In 2024 Australia was reprimanded by the US for dumping products onto the American market.

https://www.federalregister.gov/doc...limitations-under-the-us-australia-free-trade

Interestingly, Australia is benefiting from Trump's policy change with their US$17bn trade deficit becoming a more balanced US$1.7bn trade surplus in their favor. That's quite the antithesis of 'fucked over'.

https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c6021.html

The tariff story has been tough to keep up with because there have been so many countries, threats, counter threats, deadlines, and extensions. Because of that, most people probably don’t realize that the US average tariff rate on a global basis has more than quadrupled under “Taco” from an average 2.3% to over 13%. Inflation remains relatively calm, predictions of a recession have faded away, and consumers are spending. The US Treasury has gotten a nice little windfall as well.

 

[Ciceri]

Considering how the TACO Admni has been treating their allies and opening traade wars with them, this might be an optimistic request. After the way Ukraine's been treated, I don't think anyone trusts the USA not to walk away from Taiwan


View attachment 2553056

This regime has zero integrity. I would not expect them to defend Taiwan. I mean, they’re not even looking out for American citizens. It’s disgusting

 

[Lazaran]

US exports to Australia $50 Billion pa.
Australian exports to USA $24 Billion pa.
Minus $26 Billion

China exports to Australia $66 Billion pa.
Austrralia exports to China $114 Billion pa. A very rare country with a positive balance of Trade with China.
Plus $48 Billion

And some of you guys think that we will give pre-meditated support to the USA over the Taiwan issue?

Only the absolute idiot MAGAts said that (BabyBoomer50, etc).



Under Trump’s "leadership", I wouldn’t expect ANY of the United States’ traditional allies to “commit” to a joint defense of Taiwan.

That ^ does NOT mean that if / when push comes to shove, some of those traditional allies won’t join the United States in the defense of Taiwan on some level / to various degrees.

Related:

The entire “west” is gearing up for China’s seemingly inevitable move on Taiwan. Russia got a surprise when it moved on Ukraine: - and the “west” hadn’t really even geared up for the defense of Ukraine. I suspect China is in for an even bigger surprise than what Russia got if / when it moves on Taiwan.

See also:

The surprise Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, Syria, and Russia (tangentially) got when they moved on Israel recently.



We. Told. Them. So.

 

[Rightguide]

I demand to know what is going on with trump at the island.

View attachment 2553334

You've just posted a crop of an AI generated image that might open you up to legal action. Ya big dummy.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-and-epstein-with-underage-girl/

 

[dmallord]

At least I have something I can actually see without a magnifying glass. Hell, I can even see it without needing my reading glasses.


Unlike yourself and most Lit Libs who pee by braille.

Glad to see the vital issues of our time—like healthcare, climate, and the economy—have taken a back seat to the Great Penis Measuring Debate of 2025. History will surely remember this thread as the moment democracy was saved by two keyboard warriors peeing insults in braille, in your case.