Tax Bill (aka Reconciliation Bill) Preview Released Friday

[BabyBoomer50s]

Most Americans will face a massive tax hike next year if Congress fails to extend the main provisions of the Tax Cut & Jobs Act which are set to expire at the end of this year. House and Senate Republicans are facing an extremely difficult challenge forging a bill that satisfies the conflicting wishes of blue and purple district GOP members vs. Freedom Caucus types from deep red districts. Trump’s additional wants such as no tax on tips, overtime, and social security make the job even more challenging.

Nobody can predict what the final bill will look like, or even if a bill will pass at all. However, the House Joint Committee Committee on Taxation released the first public version of the bill late on Friday. We can expect lots of drama in the months ahead as Congress haggles over where to cut spending and by how much, lifting the SALT cap, and all the other difficult issues involved with getting a bill that satisfies POTUS and a majority of legislators.

https://www.jct.gov/publications/2025/jcx-18-25/

Here are some highlights summarized by the WSJ:

https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy...eb6c4?st=cUA994&reflink=article_copyURL_share

The bill “would increase the standard deduction by $1,000 for individuals and $2,000 for married couples starting in tax year 2025, above and beyond the Trump tax cuts’ expansion of that basic level where income taxes don’t apply. The standard deduction is currently $15,000 for individuals and $30,000 for married couples.”

The maximum child tax credit would increase to $2,500 from $2,000, also starting this year. Those changes would mean that many taxpayers who don’t change their withholding would see larger-than-expected refunds in spring 2026. For a middle-income married couple with two children in the 12% tax bracket, that means a $1,240 tax cut for tax year 2025.

In addition, the proposal from the House Ways and Means Committee adds an extra inflation adjustment to tax brackets for tax year 2026—a benefit that would show up in smaller paycheck withholding in January.

 

[ll74]

More debt.

 

[Lazaran]

Let’s see if DonOld and the MAGAt republicans can balloon the national debt while simultaneously tanking the U.S. economy AGAIN.



We. Told. Them. So.

 

[heathrowinneo]

Most Americans will be facing a big tax bill this year in the form of tariffs and having to pay more for basic necessities.

 

[Lazaran]

Most Americans will be facing a big tax bill this year in the form of tariffs and having to pay more for basic necessities.

And in the not too distant future (now?), Americans who are counting on Social Security and Medicare to be there, after paying into those programs for 50+ years, will be told the coffers are empty due to 50+ years of tax cuts for the wealthy / corporations.

We. Told. Them. So.

 

[MajorRewrite]

But … but … but Trump says his tariffs are collecting a bazillion quadrillion dollars and we’ll never pay income taxes again!?!!?!

No? We have to pay his tariffs and income taxes too? That’s not fair! I’m beginning to think this Trump guy is a Commie!!

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

And in the not too distant future (now?), Americans who are counting on Social Security and Medicare to be there, after paying into those programs for 50+ years, will be told the coffers are empty due to 50+ years of tax cuts for the wealthy / corporations.

We. Told. Them. So.

SS is facing a cliff where revenues will fall short of obligations. Payroll taxes have gone up over the years, as has retirement eligibility age. It’s mostly due to demographics. The ratio of workers paying into the system to retirees collecting benefits has been shrinking. Trump’s “no tax on social security” is politically popular but it would just add more stress to the system. One of the reasons I’ll be happy if that proposal doesn’t make it in the final bill.

 

[Bray123]

It'll all be Obama/Biden's fault that the Fraudster is raising taxes on everyone except himself and billionaires.

And the economy will still be screwed because the Trump-taxes are designed to destroy trade. Also all those immigrants who work and pay taxes are leaving while they have a choice of transport.

 

[RobDownSouth]

And in the not too distant future (now?), Americans who are counting on Social Security and Medicare to be there, after paying into those programs for 50+ years, will be told the coffers are empty due to 50+ years of tax cuts for the wealthy / corporations.

We. Told. Them. So.

Have you ever heard of the "bunny in a boa constrictor" analogy?

The Social Security system is the boa constrictor
The Boomers are the bunny.

Social Security is currently "digesting" the Boomers through their retirement years.
Back in 1986, analysts estimated that the Boomers would largely shuffle off the mortal coil by 2045.

Longevity has increased since then, which drains the social security reserve faster than expected. In 1986, you could expect to live to be 74 years old. Tremendous advances in medicine, and also the huge decline in smoking, increased the American life expectancy to almost 79 years in mid-2020 (an all-time high in America).

President Donald Trump has worked diligently to reduce American life expectancy. His botched response to the Covid-19 pandemic, together with MAGA resistance against the Covid-19 vaccine "jab" took almost TWO entire years off of American life expectancy in a little over 18 months. Odds are that the same thing will happen again if/when the Avian bird flu mutates.

Trump has not limited his assault on American life expectancy to ignoring influenza. He's put RFK Junkier, a leading science denialist as Secretary of HHS. Kennedy is promoting Vitamin A, healing crystals, healing crystals and horse dewormer paste as credible alternatives to nasty ole vaccines, which cause autism as you know.

Trump is also looking to replace the 50% drop in respiratory deaths from lack of smokers by reducing smog and pollution caps. Gotta keep those lung doctors employed.

The true silver lining. Even if Trump was installed as President for life and a chickenshit Congress refused to touch Social Security, the "Boomer fund" might be exhausted quicker (say, 2038 instead of 2045) and Social Security would be unable to meet 100% of its obligations....BUT...and this is a mighty big "but".....current inflow from people paying in to social security would be able to fund 75% of the monthly SSA obligations....which means Boomers at worst would suffer a 25% drop in their monthly Social Security check.

And once the final Boomer dies, the system should be able to fund 100% again.

Finally, there's an easy, if politically unpopular, fix....just remove the artificial cap on social security on paychecks.

The upper 20% or so doesn't pay a thing into Social Security in the Oct/Nov/Dec time frame, and a lot of these folks use this to fund their Vail ski holidays each year. They'd howl mightily if this perk was removed.

It's not as dire as people say it is.

 

[RoryN]

[some crap]

BabyBoomer50s calling others "racist":

Keep defending your jew-hating pals you racist POS.

https://forum.literotica.com/threads/israel-hamas-pb-tribal-fight.1596886/post-98830842

Like many progressive Democrats, she is an unhinged racist.

https://forum.literotica.com/thread...-racist-comments-galore.1603711/post-98279471


***

BabyBoomer50s being racist:

[Elizabeth Holms riots] Geez, the case hasn’t even gone to the jury and the rioters in CA are already looting the high end fashion stores. If the verdict goes the wrong way the streets of Walnut Creek, San Francisco, and LA could be filled with blondes in black turtlenecks. Not even going to guess how this would all go down if she were black.

https://forum.literotica.com/threads/elizabeth-holmes-riots.1556275/

 

[Politruk]

Most Americans will face a massive tax hike next year if Congress fails to extend the main provisions of the Tax Cut & Jobs Act

No, they won't, because most Americans did not get any tax cut from that Act.

 

[Politruk]

We could solve the Social Security problem entirely by making the payroll tax progressive, like the income tax.

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

No, they won't, because most Americans did not get any tax cut from that Act.

Nonsense. The vast majority of Americans are paying less in income taxes thanks to the TCJA.

Here’s why:

• The TCJA reduced marginal tax and effective rates in every income bracket
• doubled the child care tax credit
• nearly doubled the standard deduction
• increased the AMT exemption
• eliminated the ACA mandate tax
• doubled the estate and gift tax amounts.

If the TCJA provisions for individual filers are not extended, most Americans will pay more.

 

[Politruk]

Nonsense. The vast majority of Americans are paying less in income taxes thanks to the TCJA.

Here’s why:

• The TCJA reduced marginal tax and effective rates in every income bracket
• doubled the child care tax credit
• nearly doubled the standard deduction
• increased the AMT exemption
• eliminated the ACA mandate tax
• doubled the estate and gift tax amounts.

If the TCJA provisions for individual filers are not extended, most Americans will pay more.

Estimated impact:

Taxpayer​

[edit]
According to a 2017 report by the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center, the TCJA was expected to lower taxes by an average of $1,600 in 2018 and 2025. The top 20% of Americans by income were projected to receive roughly 65% of the tax savings.[109] The TPC estimated that the bottom 80% of taxpayers (income under $149,400) would receive 35% of the benefit in 2018, 34% in 2025 and none of the benefit in 2027, with some groups incurring costs.[110] TPC also estimated 72% of taxpayers would be adversely impacted in 2019 and beyond, if the tax cuts are paid for by spending cuts separate from the legislation, as most spending cuts would impact lower- to middle-income taxpayers and outweigh the benefits from the tax cuts.[111]

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

Estimated impact:

Taxpayer​

[edit]
According to a 2017 report by the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center, the TCJA was expected to lower taxes by an average of $1,600 in 2018 and 2025. The top 20% of Americans by income were projected to receive roughly 65% of the tax savings.[109] The TPC estimated that the bottom 80% of taxpayers (income under $149,400) would receive 35% of the benefit in 2018, 34% in 2025 and none of the benefit in 2027, with some groups incurring costs.[110] TPC also estimated 72% of taxpayers would be adversely impacted in 2019 and beyond, if the tax cuts are paid for by spending cuts separate from the legislation, as most spending cuts would impact lower- to middle-income taxpayers and outweigh the benefits from the tax cuts.[111]

This does not refute the fact that the vast majority of taxpayers are paying less than they would have if the TCJA had not passed. Nor does it refute the fact that most taxpayers will see their tax bill rise if the current rates expire. Accounting for “refundable tax credits” (money given even if you owe no taxes to offset), taxpayers at the bottom 50% of income pay 3% of total revenue collected by the government. The top 50% contribute 97% of the revenue.

If the TCJA isn’t extended for individual filers, most will pay more in 2026

 

[RoryN]

[some crap]

BabyBoomer50s calling others "racist":

Keep defending your jew-hating pals you racist POS.

https://forum.literotica.com/threads/israel-hamas-pb-tribal-fight.1596886/post-98830842

Like many progressive Democrats, she is an unhinged racist.

https://forum.literotica.com/thread...-racist-comments-galore.1603711/post-98279471


***

BabyBoomer50s being racist:

[Elizabeth Holms riots] Geez, the case hasn’t even gone to the jury and the rioters in CA are already looting the high end fashion stores. If the verdict goes the wrong way the streets of Walnut Creek, San Francisco, and LA could be filled with blondes in black turtlenecks. Not even going to guess how this would all go down if she were black.

https://forum.literotica.com/threads/elizabeth-holmes-riots.1556275/

 

[Bray123]

Most Americans will face a massive tax hike next year...

If the Trump-Taxes on imports are allowed to stand.

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

If the Trump-Taxes on imports are allowed to stand.

Yes, tariffs are a tax on imported goods. And if the TCJA individual tax reforms are not extended, most of us who pay income taxes will experience an income tax hike in 2026.

 

[Bray123]

Yes, tariffs are a tax on imported goods. And if the TCJA individual tax reforms are not extended, most of us who pay income taxes will experience an income tax hike in 2026.

Some people will not experience income tax hikes. They include Trump, Musk & Harlan Crow.

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

You have no idea what their tax returns will look like in 2026 but we can safely predict that they will remain wealthy. Keep in mind that the corporate rate was made permanent in the TCJA. Only the individual rates and provisions expire at the end of this year. If the individual reforms expire, most of taxpayers will experience a tax increase.

Here’s how the brackets would change if Congress fails to act:

 

[icanhelp1]

You have no idea what their tax returns will look like in 2026 but we can safely predict that they will remain wealthy. Keep in mind that the corporate rate was made permanent in the TCJA. Only the individual rates and provisions expire at the end of this year. If the individual reforms expire, most of taxpayers will experience a tax increase.

Here’s how the brackets would change if Congress fails to act:

Lower corporate taxes incentivizes American businesses to stay or return back to the US. More jobs means more revenue. Letting wage earners keep more of their hard earned cash will increase revenue on the backside. 4 decades of congressional mismanagement is why we're in the mess. I trillion in interest payments on the debt is what ails us. All this pie in the sky tax increases will lower the debt is just that... PIE IN THE SKY BULLSHIT. Without a plan to cut spending, shrink the government, eliminate redundant programs, and restructure the tax code, we will continue to spiral into debt. Crying over spilled milk won't solve a thing. Waging war against businesses won't solve equity imbalances. Taxing the rich to oblivion is nothing more than a Marxist tactic which will not solve our debt problems. SS has been been abused almost since it's inception. How much spending on illegal migrants for medical, SS, freebies, all which puts a strain on all levels of American society do the American people have to endure. Trump's tariffs aren't the problem, that is only a bump in the road to a level playing field. The democrats complain about everything that Trump does so their credibility is crap. Wealth redistribution won't solve the issues. Congress strapping on a pair and budgeting using common sense, spending within our revenue stream is the only way to solve our debt problems. If Trump's tax bill doesn't become permanent you can expect a possible strong recession to a possible depression.

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

Lower corporate taxes incentivizes American businesses to stay or return back to the US. More jobs means more revenue. Letting wage earners keep more of their hard earned cash will increase revenue on the backside. 4 decades of congressional mismanagement is why we're in the mess. I trillion in interest payments on the debt is what ails us. All this pie in the sky tax increases will lower the debt is just that... PIE IN THE SKY BULLSHIT. Without a plan to cut spending, shrink the government, eliminate redundant programs, and restructure the tax code, we will continue to spiral into debt. Crying over spilled milk won't solve a thing. Waging war against businesses won't solve equity imbalances. Taxing the rich to oblivion is nothing more than a Marxist tactic which will not solve our debt problems. SS has been been abused almost since it's inception. How much spending on illegal migrants for medical, SS, freebies, all which puts a strain on all levels of American society do the American people have to endure. Trump's tariffs aren't the problem, that is only a bump in the road to a level playing field. The democrats complain about everything that Trump does so their credibility is crap. Wealth redistribution won't solve the issues. Congress strapping on a pair and budgeting using common sense, spending within our revenue stream is the only way to solve our debt problems. If Trump's tax bill doesn't become permanent you can expect a possible strong recession to a possible depression.

The 21% corporate rate is safe. It is a permanent provision in the TCJA and not set to expire like the individual rates are. The Trump administration has asked for a further reduction in the corporate rate to spur growth. Hopefully that will happen but passing a reconciliation bill is going to be extremely challenging.

 

[Lazaran]

Have you ever heard of the "bunny in a boa constrictor" analogy?

The Social Security system is the boa constrictor
The Boomers are the bunny.

Social Security is currently "digesting" the Boomers through their retirement years.
Back in 1986, analysts estimated that the Boomers would largely shuffle off the mortal coil by 2045.

Longevity has increased since then, which drains the social security reserve faster than expected. In 1986, you could expect to live to be 74 years old. Tremendous advances in medicine, and also the huge decline in smoking, increased the American life expectancy to almost 79 years in mid-2020 (an all-time high in America).

President Donald Trump has worked diligently to reduce American life expectancy. His botched response to the Covid-19 pandemic, together with MAGA resistance against the Covid-19 vaccine "jab" took almost TWO entire years off of American life expectancy in a little over 18 months. Odds are that the same thing will happen again if/when the Avian bird flu mutates.

Trump has not limited his assault on American life expectancy to ignoring influenza. He's put RFK Junkier, a leading science denialist as Secretary of HHS. Kennedy is promoting Vitamin A, healing crystals, healing crystals and horse dewormer paste as credible alternatives to nasty ole vaccines, which cause autism as you know.

Trump is also looking to replace the 50% drop in respiratory deaths from lack of smokers by reducing smog and pollution caps. Gotta keep those lung doctors employed.

The true silver lining. Even if Trump was installed as President for life and a chickenshit Congress refused to touch Social Security, the "Boomer fund" might be exhausted quicker (say, 2038 instead of 2045) and Social Security would be unable to meet 100% of its obligations....BUT...and this is a mighty big "but".....current inflow from people paying in to social security would be able to fund 75% of the monthly SSA obligations....which means Boomers at worst would suffer a 25% drop in their monthly Social Security check.

And once the final Boomer dies, the system should be able to fund 100% again.

Finally, there's an easy, if politically unpopular, fix....just remove the artificial cap on social security on paychecks.

The upper 20% or so doesn't pay a thing into Social Security in the Oct/Nov/Dec time frame, and a lot of these folks use this to fund their Vail ski holidays each year. They'd howl mightily if this perk was removed.

It's not as dire as people say it is.

Um, yeah. Not really my point though.

I have to conclude that you’re aware of “how we got here”: Reagan “unlocking” the Social Security Lock Box; 50 YEARS of tax cuts for the rich & crony spending (corporate subsidies, etc), and the Social Security tax cap.

That ^ HAS made the current system unsustainable (or, at the very least, fragile). NOW factor in the massive recession / depression involving stagflation that many economists are predicting (I believe some form of recession is NOW inevitable due to DonOld’s tariff chaos, DOGE, etc, regardless of any announcement of "trade deals" and court actions).

That ^ would / will accelerate the insolvency of Social Security & Medicare AND simultaneously raise prices on the basics. It would also make the rest of government more expensive (and defense spending sure as hell isn’t getting cut), thus putting more of a strain / drain on available revenue for entitlements & other social programs (and I haven’t even factored in the costs of the inevitable climate change related disasters).

Bottom line:

REPUBLICANS have been CUTTING taxes for the wealthy & corporations FOR THE LAST 50 YEARS (and ignoring / exacerbating climate change) when they should have been RAISING them. The system is fragile af RIGHT NOW, and DonOld is a BLIND, DEMENTED bull in a Social Security (etc) china shop.

Things. Can. Get. Worse.



We. Told. Them. So.

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

SALT remains one of the main sticking points. Republicans from high tax states want higher cap for their affluent constituents. Committed vote Sunday night at 10 pm ET.

 

[ll74]

SALT remains one of the main sticking points. Republicans from high tax states want higher cap for their affluent constituents. Committed vote Sunday night at 10 pm ET.

Deficit is the main sticking point. Conservatives don't agree with MAGA fucks.