Trump fucks up again. Ukraine negotiation goes sideways

[Politruk]

Those ones are generally being bought up by Chinese to fill in for the missing CHinese female demographic.

Hard to believe. Chinese are so racist that even Koreans are too foreign for them..

 

[ChloeTzang]

Hard to believe. Chinese are so racist that even Koreans are too foreign for them..

LOL. no, it's for real. China is 20,000,000 women short in the marriagable demographic due to the old one child family policy. Girls were aborted in favor of boys and it's a real issue. So Chinese Men (the ones with money) are heavily into the Russian trophy blonde wife market and Russian women are pretty much whores anyhow and go for the money - and there are a LOT of wealthy Chinese men - and Russian wives are popular. Not just blondes wither - lots of "Russians" in Siberia wh are actually Asian ethnically and fit right in quite easily.

Do a quick search and you'll find a lot of articles on this. Chinese govt even supports and encourages it. It's a way out of the problem for them an a win-win because there are a lot of missing Russian males in the marriage demographic for some strange reason.

 

[Rebel5soul]

I thought the mineral extortion demand was supposed to be agreed to by Ukraine on April 24th too.

Zelenskyy seems to be determined to fight to the very last Ukrainian. Pointless.

The only thing the Ukrainians have accomplished is to bleed the Russians to the extent that should they reclaim all of Ukraine and occupy same they will not be invading any of their neighbors going forward. Demographics and the fact they can't turn their back on their real good buddies, China (end sarcasm), guarantees that.

 

[ChloeTzang]

Zelenskyy seems to be determined to fight to the very last Ukrainian. Pointless.

The only thing the Ukrainians have accomplished is to bleed the Russians to the extent that should they reclaim all of Ukraine and occupy same they will not be invading any of their neighbors going forward. Demographics and the fact they can't turn their back on their real good buddies, China (end sarcasm), guarantees that.

This war will go for another 2-2 years. I did a re-post on that somewhere. Ukraine will winn. Russia will collapse. China will get Siberia one way or another. Putin has ensured demographic doom for Russia.

 

[ChloeTzang]

Zelenskyy seems to be determined to fight to the very last Ukrainian. Pointless.

The only thing the Ukrainians have accomplished is to bleed the Russians to the extent that should they reclaim all of Ukraine and occupy same they will not be invading any of their neighbors going forward. Demographics and the fact they can't turn their back on their real good buddies, China (end sarcasm), guarantees that.

Russia insists it's winning—but the facts tell a different story. Its military is stuck in chaos, facing huge losses with zero strategic progress. Even if the war stretches on, evidence shows Russia is heading toward a defeat it won't recover from. Here's why. Chuck Pfarrer, former SEAL Team 6 squadron leader, a seasoned military analyst and Kyiv Post Special Correspondent, offers a critical assessment of this pivotal moment in the conflict through his conversation with colleague Jason Smart, a political scientist specializing in Russia. Drawing from extensive experience advising U.S. national security agencies, Pfarrer sharply analyzes Russia’s weakening strategic position and highlights key military developments. Here's some key points extracted:

• Russia broke the Easter "ceasefire" that Putin announced with approx. 46 incidents of major combat (battles to anyone else) initiated by the Russians on every day of the ceasefire
• Possible reasons why Russia broke the ceasefire: 2 or 3 major Russian defeats leading into Easter. In one of these they lost more than a battalion of armor, eight battalions of artillery and even more IFV's alog with 1500 casualties. Staggerimg material losses.
• Russia has an endemic and incurable logistical problem. They've lost almost all their trucks and the log soldiers are mostly dead- sent to the front to fight and die, were they did indeed die....
• Three years ago, the weapon that now kills more soldiers than anything else on the battlefield didn't exist: the FPV, the First Person View drone...the problem the Russians face is how do you move across wide open spaces to attack....and those wide open spaces are heavily mined
• Drones have changed the character and future of war....today's drones are the modern equivalent of WW1 Sopwith Camels - soon they are going to be AI-delegated - WW2 and Spitfire equivalent - within 2-3 years we will see drone swarms coordinating with each other.
• Pfarrer is forecasting 2-3 years of this war, and we will see drone swarms in action by the end of this war
• Why will the war go on?
  • The West is not paying attention
  • Russia is not reducing attacks, is not stopping attacks on civilians, her no interest in stopping the war or calling a ceasefire
  • USA is going to throw it's marbles and go home - Russia is saying Trump is on the right track with his team's proposals - Moscow could not be happier with Washington but Russia will not play ball with anyone
  • Russia is not out to do anything that fits in with US foreign policy and sees Europe as an enemy
  • Europe is slowly realizing that America cannot be counted on
  • The USA throwing over the table amd getting out of this war will not be the worst thing that could happen - if they are noyt ging to enforce any ceasefire, they should just get off the stage and go away
  • What did Washington thing they could achieve here? Russia is not a reliable partner? Why should Ukraine agree to any agreement that it was not part of making?
  • The on thing that will resolve this war is for Ukraine to defeat the Russian Army in the field.
• Ukraine is right to not trust the USA
• Russia is losing this war. It will never win it, it will go on for 2-3 years before it's over and Russia is defeated. At some point Russia will finally figure out they cannot win.
  • Russia is in a black hole with regard to training: 8 days from being drafted to being on the front. Some have never fired the rifles. They can't train their soldiers. They can't do night attacks. They can't coordinate strikes with front line attacks. 90% of their precision strikes are aimed at apartment building and civilian targets.
  • Ukraine's strategic goal needs to be defeating the Russian military. Ukraine's security depends on a professional military force that can defeat Russia.
  • The one thing NATO and the US has not armed Ukraine to do the job and has denied them the weapons and equipment they need,
  • If the US Army was in Ukraine, it would be doing a worse job than the Ukrainian Army

__________________

 

[Rebel5soul]

LOL. no, it's for real. China is 20,000,000 women short in the marriagable demographic due to the old one chold family policy. Girls were aborted in favor of boys and it's a real issue. So Chinese Men (the ones with money) are heavily into the Russian trophy blonde wife market and Russian women are pretty much whores anyhow and go for the money - and there are a LOT of wealthy Chinese men - and Russian wives are popular. Not just blondes wither - lots of "Russians" in Siberia wh are actually Asian ethnically and fit right in quite easily.

There is truth in what you say Chloe, but the offspring will NOT be Han and will never have any political power, or favor, as long as the CCP rules.

Now, I know that you know how damn important family is to the Chinese. For those that aren't aware, the big hint is that the family name takes primacy over the given name.

Trophy wives sweetie that do nothing to solve the down-stream problem.

 

[Rebel5soul]

Russia insists it's winning—but the facts tell a different story. Its military is stuck in chaos, facing huge losses with zero strategic progress. Even if the war stretches on, evidence shows Russia is heading toward a defeat it won't recover from. Here's why. Chuck Pfarrer, former SEAL Team 6 squadron leader, a seasoned military analyst and Kyiv Post Special Correspondent, offers a critical assessment of this pivotal moment in the conflict through his conversation with colleague Jason Smart, a political scientist specializing in Russia. Drawing from extensive experience advising U.S. national security agencies, Pfarrer sharply analyzes Russia’s weakening strategic position and highlights key military developments. Here's some key points extracted:

• Russia broke the Easter "ceasefire" that Putin announced with approx. 46 incidents of major combat (battles to anyone else) initiated by the Russians on every day of the ceasefire
• Possible reasons why Russia broke the ceasefire: 2 or 3 major Russian defeats leading into Easter. In one of these they lost more than a battalion of armor, eight battalions of artillery and even more IFV's alog with 1500 casualties. Staggerimg material losses.
• Russia has an endemic and incurable logistical problem. They've lost almost all their trucks and the log soldiers are mostly dead- sent to the front to fight and die, were they did indeed die....
• Three years ago, the weapon that now kills more soldiers than anything else on the battlefield didn't exist: the FPV, the First Person View drone...the problem the Russians face is how do you move across wide open spaces to attack....and those wide open spaces are heavily mined
• Drones have changed the character and future of war....today's drones are the modern equivalent of WW1 Sopwith Camels - soon they are going to be AI-delegated - WW2 and Spitfire equivalent - within 2-3 years we will see drone swarms coordinating with each other.
• Pfarrer is forecasting 2-3 years of this war, and we will see drone swarms in action by the end of this war
• Why will the war go on?
  • The West is not paying attention
  • Russia is not reducing attacks, is not stopping attacks on civilians, her no interest in stopping the war or calling a ceasefire
  • USA is going to throw it's marbles and go home - Russia is saying Trump is on the right track with his team's proposals - Moscow could not be happier with Washington but Russia will not play ball with anyone
  • Russia is not out to do anything that fits in with US foreign policy and sees Europe as an enemy
  • Europe is slowly realizing that America cannot be counted on
  • The USA throwing over the table amd getting out of this war will not be the worst thing that could happen - if they are noyt ging to enforce any ceasefire, they should just get off the stage and go away
  • What did Washington thing they could achieve here? Russia is not a reliable partner? Why should Ukraine agree to any agreement that it was not part of making?
  • The on thing that will resolve this war is for Ukraine to defeat the Russian Army in the field.
• Ukraine is right to not trust the USA
• Russia is losing this war. It will never win it, it will go on for 2-3 years before it's over and Russia is defeated. At some point Russia will finally figure out they cannot win.
  • Russia is in a black hole with regard to training: 8 days from being drafted to being on the front. Some have never fired the rifles. They can't train their soldiers. They can't do night attacks. They can't coordinate strikes with front line attacks. 90% of their precision strikes are aimed at apartment building and civilian targets.
  • Ukraine's strategic goal needs to be defeating the Russian military. Ukraine's security depends on a professional military force that can defeat Russia.
  • The one thing NATO and the US has not armed Ukraine to do the job and has denied them the weapons and equipment they need,
  • If the US Army was in Ukraine, it would be doing a worse job than the Ukrainian Army

__________________

Chloe, they are NOT winning.

 

[ChloeTzang]

Chloe, they are NOT winning.

Near the start of this war, I was told by a Lt.Col I rather respect for his knowledge that the Russian artillery would win the war for Russia and the Ukrainians would loseand lose quickly.

Three years later Ukraine is still fightimg, is matching Russian in artillery and has superiority in some areas, another 5-600 155mm guns they are manufacturing themselves expectd to come into service over 2025. Their artillery ammo supply has increased to the point that ammo from the USA is not a showstopper if its nor available, they are reoganizing and requipping their army, the Russian Navy is an irrelevance and the Ukrainian air forces is not only still in the game but now has the initiative. Ukrainian deep strikes are hitting Russian industry pretty much at will and Ukrainian drones are breaking Russian attacks pretty much every time. Russia has not made any but minor advances in a year.

Nope, they are not winning YET. By 2026 they will be winning and the writing will be on the wall for Russia and for Putin.

 

[ChloeTzang]

There's no longer any real strategic necessity to sign this deal. Trump has failed to commit to security guarantees. Failed to provided arms. Failed to provide air defence systems and can't be trusted to keep his word - and has proved that the USA cannot be relied on to adhere to signed treaties and agreements. He can't get a ceasefire from Putin, and really, he has no more cards to play. I wouldn’t sign crap until those patriots, and loads of missiles for them are in country. Trump needs to put up or shut up.

Zelensky isn't the patsy Trump thought he is.

 

[ChloeTzang]

 

[Fuzzy1975]

View attachment 2532316

Fucking bizarre and scary. At one point, if i was the interviewer I would have broke out laughing....

Yet this guy's in charge of the largest nuclear stockpile in existence.....and his supporters are oblivious....

 

[Rebel5soul]

Near the start of this war, I was told by a Lt.Col I rather respect for his knowledge that the Russian artillery would win the war for Russia and the Ukrainians would loseand lose quickly.

Three years later Ukraine is still fightimg, is matching Russian in artillery and has superiority in some areas, another 5-600 155mm guns they are manufacturing themselves expectd to come into service over 2025. Their artillery ammo supply has increased to the point that ammo from the USA is not a showstopper if its nor available, they are reoganizing and requipping their army, the Russian Navy is an irrelevance and the Ukrainian air forces is not only still in the game but now has the initiative. Ukrainian deep strikes are hitting Russian industry pretty much at will and Ukrainian drones are breaking Russian attacks pretty much every time. Russia has not made any but minor advances in a year.

Nope, they are not winning YET. By 2026 they will be winning and the writing will be on the wall for Russia and for Putin.

Surviving isn't 'winning.' Its turned into a war of attrition and Ukraine cannot win that sort of war. That being said it will be a Pyrrhic victory for the Russians. As it stands without a negotiated settlement this unbelievable waste of blood and treasure will continue to the inevitable end.

 

[ChloeTzang]

Surviving isn't 'winning.' Its turned into a war of attrition and Ukraine cannot win that sort of war. That being said it will be a Pyrrhic victory for the Russians. As it stands without a negotiated settlement this unbelievable waste of blood and treasure will continue to the inevitable end.

No, attrition cannot win the war for Ukraine but drones are a game-changer and Ukraine has a huge and growing advantage. Their drone wall reaching out 40kms will reduce the Ukrainian attrition rate considerably. 85% of Russian casualties are inflicted by drones. 80% of Russians moving towards the contact line are being eliminated before they get that far. Ukraine is building 9000 cruise missiles this year and those will be used for medium-depth strikes, Lomg range drones will be used for deep strikes and they will be building three to four times as many drones this year as they did last, PLUS other countries are supplying more and more drones. The IK, the Netherlands, Germany - even New Zealand has a massive drone order for Ukraine from some Kiwi drone company.

The war is not won, but it's not lost and we are at an inflection point where more and more things will be moving in Ukraine's favor. As the Bolshevik Revolution illustrated, Russia DOES have a breaking point.

 

[Rebel5soul]

Drones are a game changer for everyone that's paying attention. The democratization of warfare. The grunt can now carry around up to 6 deep strike smart weapons in his/her backpack. But the Russians have learned too and have developed some very effective electronic counter-measures. Move-counter-move, still in slow motion. No one has effectively put together a combined arms offense so it's trench warfare with drones.

 

[Politruk]

Now on what day was the Orange Turd supposed to get this war ended?

As I recall, he promised he would end the war before he took office.

 

[ChloeTzang]

Not just me seeing this either. I'm basing my view on multiple assessments from people who are a lot more knowledgable than me. Military experts too - Aussie Gen. Mick Ryan amongst them

 

[Politruk]

Russia should be fucking destroyed. Every last bit of of Russian DNA should be radiated in a nice nuclear glow. The only good Russian is Russian dust.

Leaving nukes out of it, that is pretty much exactly how Hitler thought.

 

[ChloeTzang]

Drones are a game changer for everyone that's paying attention. The democratization of warfare. The grunt can now carry around up to 6 deep strike smart weapons in his/her backpack. But the Russians have learned too and have developed some very effective electronic counter-measures. Move-counter-move, still in slow motion. No one has effectively put together a combined arms offense so it's trench warfare with drones.

It's very much like WW1 with the development of aerial warfare. You saw that same progression in a very rapid timeframe.

What you will see in the next 1-2 years is the development of autonomous AI drone swarms in the thousands, all working together to move across the warscape exterminating the Russians, taking out enemy drones, attacking artillery, armor, logistics, and sealing off areas of the front after which infantry units will move in for a final clearance, dig in, and rinse and repeat. It's already like that on parts of the front where nothing can move and the drones are a constant presence.

 

[eric_erosfan]

Leaving nukes out of it, that is pretty much exactly how Hitler thought.

Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

 

[butters]

It was a fitting moment for an epiphany, if that’s what this was. Donald Trump sat in the morning light in St Peter’s Basilica hunched over in conversation with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, as the assembled royalty and foreign leaders, the cardinals and bishops, and thousands of faithful gathered outside to prepare for the papal funeral.

His revelation soon came in the guise of a Truth Social post. “There was no reason for Putin to be shooting missiles into civilian areas, cities and towns, over the last few days,” Trump mused. “It makes me think that maybe [Putin] doesn’t want to stop the war.”

For months, Zelenskyy and European leaders have struggled to deliver that message to Trump.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...1&cvid=49d0ced748f34fd9914120cb1d7e8bcf&ei=85

next he'll be saying that god spoke to him, directly... 'he said ''Sir, sir, all that bombing of children and the unwas... er people, lots of people, very big amount of people, maybe even the biggest amount of people ever bombed by Russia before ... is it godly? is it right? You and Vlad should have a talk, and be strong, he said, be strong, tell Vlad that you aren't sure he really wants to end the war and tell him to convince you he will because..." well, with all the tornadoes and fires, California, really bad for fires because of NEGLIGENT NEWSOME! and eggs, not that I much like eggs anyway I prefer my hamburgers prime USA beef with cheese and pickles... how dya like those pickles, eh? Not a proper burger without pickles but I'm making sure that, from now on, EVERY BURGER IN AMERICA will be GREAT AGAIN (Executive Order) with those great pickles with the wavy edges... did you ever notice that, the wavy edges? Hold the lettuce, though and fuck, no, I'm not drinking milk evah but I'll let my great friend RFK jnr drink as much as he likes because it's a great alternative medicine, right? Makes calceem... calce... makes bones strong. My bones are strong already so I don't need as much as most people... they're stronger than probably everyone you know. I'm told many many people believe I should be on the cover of scientific magazines around the globe because of how strong they are and America, god bless her, needs a strong strong leader... a very strong leader and this is why god made sure I was elected, again... I was elected in 2020 but I was cheated by deep state and... anyway, God talked to me, because with the old pope, bless him, dead and a new one not yet elected, he had to talk to the person who could understand ... it's just great when you can understand eachother, isn't it? Makes life so much greater and I don't even need to go to church... he could have just spoken to me anywhere a my ears are so in tune with god, so in tune... I like tunes, some of those hymns, eh? Great tunes! Earwormy things.... no, no JFK jnr, I was talking about you, I was talking about show tunes, those hymns they're like show tunes, makes you want to clap along and dance...'


Putin: *facepalm*

 

[butters]

from the same article:

Keith Kellogg, Trump’s envoy to Ukraine, felt compelled to quote the book of Matthew. “Blessed are the peacemakers for they shall be called the children of God,” he wrote.

It was a “very symbolic meeting,” Zelenskyy said later, and it had the “potential to become historic, if we achieve joint results.” Zelenskyy, dressed in an all-black outfit that could be termed funereal military chic, was applauded by the crowd as he walked out on to St Peter’s Square.

did he get a bigger cheer than trump? just askin' since you KNOW trump was listening.

 

[ChloeTzang]

Why Trump’s Withdrawal Benefits Ukraine​

When you know exactly where you stand, it makes it easier to spring forward and carry out a determined strategy. Now Ukraine knows where it stands with Trump.

While counterintuitive, the withdrawal by President Donald Trump of the United States from peace negotiations – and even from materially supporting Ukraine – may be beneficial to Ukraine and its allies. That is a conclusion many senior decision-makers and policy analysts in Ukraine have come to and it has several reasons. It’s also a position that challenges the mistaken legacy tendency of seeing Ukraine and the war through Western eyes still fixated on Russia as some great power, which it no longer is. In terms of how Ukraine benefits from American withdrawal at the policy and, potentially, military operational levels, the first way is that it creates strategic clarity. It removes any lingering illusion about where the United States under Trump stands with regard to the war.

Where “clarity is king,” it is now crystal clear that the Trump Administration unambiguously seeks some new global deal with Putin’s Russia at its core – there are no remaining ifs, ands or buts. We can speculate about the drivers for this new “Détente by Donald,” but they’re likely to be hidden from public view given the Mafia-like ethos of both the American and Russian administrations. In turn, Ukraine and its political and military leaders now know exactly where they stand and therefore how to proceed on all fronts of the war. They no longer need to make any substantive or symbolic investment in American-led so-called peace talks which have, at times, sounded and looked like a standover racket and Presidential Ponzi scheme.

Ukraine can now unconditionally focus on its own self-determined strategic goal: ending the war by making it untenable for Russia to keep fighting it. Expressed another way, Ukraine no longer has to meaningfully engage with an erratic American President who increasingly seems to be a Russian dupe or worse. A key way that strategic clarity is expressed is Ukraine’s prosecution of drone warfare. With high-tech, long-range drones that can travel 1,500 kilometers (932 miles) and autonomously self-adjust using AI, Ukraine has been destroying Russia’s cash cow – its oil industry. Around 20 percent of Russian oil production capacity has now been eliminated. No longer needing to looking over the shoulder at Washington DC, that trend will now grow. Ukraine manufactured more than a million drones in the last year and has plans for 4.5 million more in the next 12 months. This week, it undertook its largest drone strike of multiple targets inside Russia during the course of the war.

Secondly, as elsewhere noted, it puts Europe’s position and role with regard to Ukraine into sharp relief, including the scale of its support, engagement and coordination. European leaders can no longer hide behind previous American support for Ukraine. If for no reason but their own forward defense, they now have to make greater military investments via Ukraine. That is now rapidly occurring via new unilateral and multilateral packages of military and other support for Kyiv. The latest tranche of military aid is worth $24 billion, with half coming from Germany, which has at previous times been ambivalent about support. Europe has now overtaken the US as the largest contributor to Ukraine’s cause.

Indeed, the silver lining of “America First” for Ukraine’s cause is “Europe at Last.” In addition to conventional packages of military materiel, European support has fast evolved to include offers of peacekeeping forces, more F-16s and discussions about closing Ukraine’s skies, massive investments in Ukraine’s own defense industry production, and moves to reallocate to Ukraine the $300 billion in frozen Russian assets in European financial institutions. American withdrawal also underscores for Ukrainians the greatest lesson of their 20th-century history. That while allies are valuable, they cannot be relied on. This is best illustrated by the Budapest Memorandum, which saw Ukraine give up its nuclear weapons in return for American security pledges that vanished. Ukraine’s leaders know very well that self-reliance and self-sufficiency must be the primary basis of Ukraine’s sovereignty. To that end, Ukraine’s military production is booming; it will be at $30 billion in the next twelve month compared to $1 billion in 2022. On some accounts, around 40 percent of weaponry used is domestically produced including 95 percent of drones.

Quality is just as important as quantity here. The Ukrainians have fundamentally changed warfare in favor of drones, which now account for 80 percent of Russian casualties. It explains why over the last six months, the largest ever infantry assaults by Moscow have yielded miniscule gains of territory. And that’s where the perception of Russia of some in the West needs to change. The objective reality is that three years of invasion has gained the Kremlin massive casualties and costs while utterly failing to achieve the core objective of eliminating Ukrainian statehood and national identity. While this speaks to Ukrainian resilience and resourcefulness, it also points to the fact that modern Mafia-controlled Russia is closer to medieval Russia than to the USSR. Putin doesn’t helm a global power; he presides over a petrol station that bankrolls a largely unmotivated military and doesn’t redistribute wealth to millions of Russians who don’t have indoor plumbing. Even that edifice is at risk. With petrol prices falling in the last month to $50 per barrel while its government budget is modelled at $70 per barrel, Russia is under extreme pressure. It is now likely around $3 billion short of budget revenue per month and may not be able to pay its soldiers in the short term.

Ultimately, Donald Trump wants to change the world order and deal Ukraine out in the process. As a result, Ukrainians will have to be even stronger protagonists of their own future. They are ready and they are not surprised.

https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/51443

 

[ChloeTzang]

Well, as it turns out, Zelensky did not outright say no. Ukraine merely updated the plan with their requirements for a peace agreement and sent it back. Forall intents and purposes that's a hard "no" to theTrump Admonistration's peace plan, and if Trump choozses to walk away, Ukraine would probably be better off at this point without the USA's backstabbing betrayal. And who knows, the horse may sing. Trump might in fact merely be dumb as shit and not on Putin's payroll and come to see reason. Be a miracle if he does, but he's not exactly consistent. One also has to keep in mnd that as Trump drives the USA into a recession, our days of being able to afford to be THE world power have come to an end, and the torch is passing to Europe on this one at least, regardless of what Trump does or doesn't do at this point....​

We all understand that the USA is no longer to be taken seriously, any agreements the USA has signed in the past are worthless, and that anything the USA agrees to may well change on a whim and are therefore to be disregarded. Zelensky (and Europe) would be wise to place absolutely no reliance on anything the USA says or agrees to.

Zelensky May Well Say No​

A proposed US peace deal under Trump favors Russian terms, offering Ukraine no NATO path or real security. Zelensky faces a dire choice: accept it or keep fighting with uncertain support.

Recent days seem to have all but confirmed the worst-case scenario for Ukraine – that the Trump administration has sold it down the river to Russia. A Washington Post article seemed to lay out in some detail the contours of the peace plan proposed by the Trump administration. At face value this appears to be a total capitulation to Russia’s terms. It includes acceptance of:

• No future NATO membership for Ukraine
• No NATO troop deployment to Ukraine – questions then over the form, status and consequence of the proposed European “reassurance Force”
• Legal acceptance of Russian sovereignty over Crimea
• De facto acceptance of Russian control over other territory it currently occupies – in Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia
• Lifting of sanctions against Russia
• No specific US security guarantees for Ukraine aside from the so called “minerals deal” whereby the US would encourage investment into Ukraine for joint US and Ukrainian ownership of a sovereign wealth fund. The Trump administration seems to think that the mere presence of US business interests in Ukraine will preclude future Russian attacks – even though their presence in the past failed to deter the invasion

It is hard to see what Ukraine gets from the above deal aside from vague, and nonspecific assurances from the US. Remember in the past Ukraine had what it thought were hard, written down security assurances in the form of the Budapest memorandum of 1994, after it surrendered its huge nuclear arsenal, and they proved not to be worth the paper they were written on.

The above deal tramples over Ukrainian sovereignty, established since independence in 1991, and accepted at the time by Russia, the UN, the EU, and NATO. The deal also is an acceptance that might is right and great powers get to set their own borders. The great dominate the weak. International borders, accepted by the UN mean nothing in the new world following this deal. President Zelensky now faces a hellishly difficult decision. In accepting this deal he has to weigh up the strength of US assurances and whether Putin will still abide by the deal. Will Putin just use any deal and sanctions moderation to re-arm for the next invasion – and assume that limitations on US arms supplies to Ukraine will create a greater long term military advantage for Russia?

And he has to weigh up the domestic political response. Will the mere acceptance of the deal risk a third Ukrainian revolution – following the Orange Revolution and Euromaidan, overthrowing him and bringing in a more militarist administration likely to want to go back to war with Russia? Will any such revolution just undermine domestic political, social and economic cohesion to a breaking point which might be used again as an excuse for further Russian invasion? Surely without adequate security guarantees how will any investment flow into Ukraine? And that surely suggests economic, social and likely ultimately political failure again. How can Ukraine then hope to ensure a strong enough economy and social and political set up to defend against future Russian attacks? Any such deal might bring some short-lived peace but might ultimately risk state failure and then Russian exploitation of Ukrainian weakness to deliver on Putin’s maximalist objectives – the capture of the whole of Ukraine.

And yet if he rejects this deal, he would have to assume the loss of US support in a continuing war with Russia. The US might still lift sanctions on Russia – even if Europe did not. How long could Ukraine survive still in such a war? Therein much depends on the stance of Europe. Would Europe be willing and able to continue to support Ukraine economically and militarily if this risked a major break with the US? And how could key gaps in Western military support left by the US walking away be filled? Herein think of longer-range air defense (Patriots) and strike capability (HIMARS, ATACMS) plus intelligence?

Zelensky might well conclude that by fighting on – even for six months, or a year – the end result might still be the same, with further Russian military advance risking a total defeat of Ukraine. Zelensky might though think that Ukraine, and Ukrainians fought three years against Russia without conceding, and faced much more overwhelming odds in the first few weeks after the invasion, but managed to survive and fight on. Russia still lacks the military capability to take much advantage from a US withdrawal of support to Ukraine. It simply lacks the sheer number of troops to take and hold Ukraine against an entrenched and motivated opposition – also now better armed. He also knows that Ukrainians know what a Russian victory means – they remember the Holodymyr, Bucha, Mariupol, et al, and they love their land. What’s the point of a peace deal if they lose their land, sovereignty and identity? And perhaps they would conclude that fighting on might create new opportunities – remember Prigozhin?

And imagine how weak and vulnerable Putin would look if Trump gifted Putin a supposed victory but Putin was unable to deliver on that as Ukraine opted to fight on. Ukraine might also be surprised by continued European support – as at the least the Balts, Poland, the Scandies and the UK seem to understand the existential risk now from Russia and that Europe’s best defense against an expansionist Russia is no longer the US, but actually Ukraine. With 40% plus of military kit now made in Ukraine, and rising, and with Europe filling the gaps, perhaps at least half of US military provision could be filled by Europe and that this buys both Ukraine and Europe time, and will eventually weigh down on Russia.

Hard choice for Zelensky but my sense is that he will not accept a bad deal, at all costs, and Ukrainians will support him in the latter choice, if he chooses to fight on.

https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/51479

 

[ChloeTzang]

Zelensky has made a significant compromise Ukraine in negotiations with Russia​

Krainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has named Ukraine's readiness to negotiate with a "terrorist state" as a significant compromise. According to Zelensky, while Kyiv shows goodwill, Russia continues its missile strikes, painting a grim picture on the ground. During a joint press conference with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa on April 24, Zelensky stated that any peace talks must begin with a complete and unconditional ceasefire, a position Russia has yet to accept.

Emphasizing Ukraine’s vested interest in ending the war due to immense aggressions suffered—occupied territories, tens of thousands killed, even children buried alive, President Zelensky highlighted that sitting at the negotiating table with adversaries responsible for such devastation is already a massive concession. "The attack on us, the occupation, the killing, and yet our willingness to talk with those who orchestrated this, that is the compromise," said Zelensky.

Zelensky stressed that no negotiations can proceed without addressing the return of deported children and a comprehensive exchange of all detained individuals. Until a ceasefire is realized, discussions about any "red lines" are merely prolonging the conflict. Reflecting on a recent meeting in London involving Ukrainian, American, and European representatives, Zelensky described it as constructive yet pointed out a new amended document "currently on President Trump's desk." Ukraine stands firm that any proposal conflicting with its constitution or values is non-negotiable, hinting at suggested territorial concessions.

Zelensky underlined that despite Russia's verbal readiness for a ceasefire, it continues its aggressive strikes, with another wave of attacks recorded on the morning of April 24. Ukrainian authorities view this as more of an attempt to pressure Washington than Kyiv. Previously, the U.S. had vowed stringent actions, including new sanctions, should any party refuse a ceasefire.

Zelensky remarked, "I don't see strong pressure on Russia right now," expressing concerns in Kyiv

https://uawire.org/zelensky-names-t...-willing-to-make-in-negotiations-with-russia#

 

[Politruk]

Zelensky has made a significant compromise Ukraine in negotiations with Russia​

Krainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has named Ukraine's readiness to negotiate with a "terrorist state" as a significant compromise. According to Zelensky, while Kyiv shows goodwill, Russia continues its missile strikes, painting a grim picture on the ground. During a joint press conference with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa on April 24, Zelensky stated that any peace talks must begin with a complete and unconditional ceasefire, a position Russia has yet to accept.

Emphasizing Ukraine’s vested interest in ending the war due to immense aggressions suffered—occupied territories, tens of thousands killed, even children buried alive, President Zelensky highlighted that sitting at the negotiating table with adversaries responsible for such devastation is already a massive concession. "The attack on us, the occupation, the killing, and yet our willingness to talk with those who orchestrated this, that is the compromise," said Zelensky.

Zelensky stressed that no negotiations can proceed without addressing the return of deported children and a comprehensive exchange of all detained individuals. Until a ceasefire is realized, discussions about any "red lines" are merely prolonging the conflict. Reflecting on a recent meeting in London involving Ukrainian, American, and European representatives, Zelensky described it as constructive yet pointed out a new amended document "currently on President Trump's desk." Ukraine stands firm that any proposal conflicting with its constitution or values is non-negotiable, hinting at suggested territorial concessions.

Zelensky underlined that despite Russia's verbal readiness for a ceasefire, it continues its aggressive strikes, with another wave of attacks recorded on the morning of April 24. Ukrainian authorities view this as more of an attempt to pressure Washington than Kyiv. Previously, the U.S. had vowed stringent actions, including new sanctions, should any party refuse a ceasefire.

Zelensky remarked, "I don't see strong pressure on Russia right now," expressing concerns in Kyiv

https://uawire.org/zelensky-names-t...-willing-to-make-in-negotiations-with-russia#

We really cannot say Zelenskyy has made any "compromise" until he offers to give up territory.