For Those Who Might Be Wondering Why We Might Be In Ukraine

[Politruk]

You are an idiot.

The idiot is the one who thinks Democrats are Commies, or even leftists of any kind.

 

[Politruk]

NATO isn't in the cards for Ukraine.

No country with an ongoing territorial dispute can join NATO. But be sure Ukraine will join as soon as this war is over.

 

[ChloeTzang]

Installing a NATO force on their border is.

If Putin was genuinely concerned about NATO, he wouldn't have engineered Finland and Sweden into joining.

As it is, there's two alternatives for Ukraine here:
- 1 - join NATO
- 2 - go Nuke

 

[ChloeTzang]

If Ukraine joins NATO, Russia still has access to the Black Sea. If Ukraine recovers Crimea, Russia still has access to the Black Sea.

They MIGHT have access to the Black Sea, but militarily it will do them no use. The Black Sea is a Ukrainian lake these days....

 

[ChloeTzang]

Ukrainian counterattacks strain Russian forces: renewed Kursk offensive alters strategic dynamics​

With a lack of internal reserves, Russian forces have had no choice but to relocate troops from the frontline in Ukraine to reinforce the Kursk region. They can only be transferred from the front line, as Russia has no internal reserves. Had Russia possessed such reserves, they would have likely been deployed in Eastern Ukraine already. Should the situation continue to deteriorate for Russian forces in the Kursk area, they may be forced to further redeploy troops from active battle zones in Ukraine.

So here we can see how the strategic balance is changing - Russia is now being forced to react to Ukrainian moves, rather than vice-versa.

https://uawire.org/ukrainian-counte...wed-kursk-offensive-alters-strategic-dynamics

 

[ChloeTzang]

Ukrainian deep strikes inside Russia are crippling Russian logistics and military command....​

We're seeing more and more of these precision attacks carried out by the Ukrainians, and they're picking their targets. With Ukrainian cruise missile production picking up for 2025, these are going to become more and more devastating. 2024 only saw the start of these attacks.

https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/01...ussia-cripple-logistics-and-military-command/

 

[ishtat]

They MIGHT have access to the Black Sea, but militarily it will do them no use. The Black Sea is a Ukrainian lake these days....

More importantly, Ukraine's success has shown Turkey that she has absolute control of access to the Mediterranean from the Black sea. In the past the USSR could intimidate Turkey into granting passage through the straits; No longer, Turkey has the second most powerful and well equipped army in NATO, plus a mountainous Northern and far Western coast that any Russian would be insane to think of attacking. When Russia lost its base in Syria and was humiliated by the Ukrainian resistance, their Black Sea ports effectively became a trap. Russia is now demonstrably incapable of projecting its power beyond its core. This outcome alone has made support for Ukraine an excellent investment for the USA.

 

[ChloeTzang]

 

[ChloeTzang]

The Ukrainian General staff confirmed they struck an oil depot in Engels, Saratov region. The attack targeted the "Kombinat Kristal" fuel storage facility, crucial for supplying the Engels-2 airbase, home to Russian strategic aviation. Multiple explosions and a massive fire were reported.

The Kristall oil depot, more specifically a national reserve storage base, is without exaggeration a strategically important facility. This supply base stores fuel for the russian strategic aviation stationed at the nearby Engels Air Base, located in the Saratov Region of russia. Footage from the site shows a large-scale fire that has engulfed part of the tanks. Local authorities also confirm that the was hit by Ukrainian long-range drones. The attack has the potential to affect the combat readiness of aircraft based at the Engels air base, particularly Tu-95MS and Tu-160 strategic bombers of the 22nd Heavy Bomber Aviation Division.

https://en.defence-ua.com/news/ukra...160s_grounded_without_special_fuel-13128.html

https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/01...n-fire-after-drone-attack-on-russian-regions/

Engels-2 is a strategic bomber airbase in Russia, hosting the 121st Guards Heavy Bomber Aviation Regiment (Tu-160M) and the 184th Heavy Bomber Aviation Regiment (Tu-95MS) of the 22nd Guards Heavy Bomber Aviation Division. Tu-95MS aircraft are frequently used in Russia's monthly missile assaults to launch Kh-101 cruise missiles at Ukraine.

 

[jhenry922]

James Comer: FBI Doc Alleges ‘Business Person from Ukraine’ Sent ‘Substantial Bribe’ to VP Biden​

WENDELL HUSEBØ7 Jun 2023

The FBI’s informant file of a $5 million bribery scheme allegedly linked to President Joe Biden concerns the family’s business deals in Ukraine, House Oversight Committee Chair James Comer (R-KY) revealed Monday.

In May, Comer and Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) made bombshell claims after reviewing an FBI FD-1023 form that documented the informant’s allegations of an alleged bribery scheme involving an exchange of money for policy decisions between now-President Joe Biden and a foreign national. Comer disclosed the informant tip is dated June 30, 2020.

“Yes, it is Ukraine,” Comer told The Just the News. “This form 1023 involves a business person from Ukraine, who allegedly sent a bribe, a substantial bribe to then Vice President Joe Biden.”

The Biden family frequently visited Ukraine for its respective business. Then-Vice President Joe Biden served as the Obama administration’s Ukrainian “point person” on U.S. foreign policy. He visited Ukraine six times while serving as vice president.

More here: https://www.breitbart.com/politics/...m-ukraine-sent-substantial-bribe-to-vp-biden/

I said long ago there is good reason to believe that Joe Biden has been compromised by Ukraine and other countries.

For those who don't get what happened in Ukraine with the biden's, Biden tried to interview for the national courts to stop corruption in the Ukrainian governments and it's subsidiaries, and was mostly successful and that's why they tossed out the pro Russian meaning president and had Fair elections and elected zelensky. Thought I'd give you the short version of this long with the tale of a nothing Burger

 

[ChloeTzang]

Engels Oil depot fire spreading - lovely lovely avgas fires.....

https://twitter.com/x/status/1877040523401183605

https://twitter.com/x/status/1877084240417853672

 

[ChloeTzang]

 

[Politruk]

For those who don't get what happened in Ukraine with the biden's, Biden tried to interview for the national courts to stop corruption in the Ukrainian governments and it's subsidiaries, and was mostly successful and that's why they tossed out the pro Russian meaning president and had Fair elections and elected zelensky. Thought I'd give you the short version of this long with the tale of a nothing Burger

Point being, it has nothing to do with Biden family business interests.

 

[ChloeTzang]

 

[ChloeTzang]

A Few Thoughts....

It would be much easier to convince Ukrainians under the age of 25 to voluntarily join the military without expanding the draft in Ukraine as Jake Sullivan wants if the Biden Administration had, at any point over this past year, supplied Ukraine with enough armored vehicles to outfit a dozen Brigades - and that's not that many in compaison to what we have sitting out there in storage areas in the desert. Sadly, the powers-that-be among Team Blue’s oh-so-brilliant (yes, sarcasm) "leaders "appear to have decided that the risk of Ukraine winning under Trump outweighs any benefits to be gained from trying to arm Ukraine fully before Trump takes office.

There continues to be talk of hundreds of armored vehicles, but so far, it's all been talk-talk. Nothing delivered. Unless the deliveries hit at least two dozen in the next two weeks with more confirmed as en-route, one will only be able to conclude that Team Biden has decided to sell out Ukraine one last time while they have the chance. Resisting fascism by waiting it out is very on brand for a standard-grade postmodern American Democrat-social justice-cosplaying liberal.

But democracy and the Constitution are just words to Vichy Democrats, their definitions are whatever the high priests on TV insist is true this season. Anyway, whatever. The rumor mill has it that Putin gave Trump’s negotiating team the middle finger, which if true is pretty much what I figured would happen if the orcs couldn’t reclaim Kursk by Trump’s inauguration. It's very, very difficult to see any practical grounds for a stable ceasefire in the foreseeable future. Which leaves victory the best option for everybody. But will Team Trump correctly perceive its own self-interest lies in doing what Team Biden would not - arming and equipping Ukraine to win?

Meanwhile, Europe continues to muddle its way towards a situation where the members of NATO and the EU that feel the most concerned about Moscow drive policy for the continent. That’s no bad thing, and there is reason to hope that the Ramstein protocol - which includes the Pacific democracies - will evolve into a permanent mechanism to contain russia. A former European leader recently remarked that Europe can no longer base its security on the whims of voters in the American Rust Belt. So at least, they are seeing the light. They cannot freeload defence of the USA any longer. He's hoping that translates into more military aid for Ukraine over 2025.

 

[Politruk]

A Few Thoughts....

It would be much easier to convince Ukrainians under the age of 25 to voluntarily join the military without expanding the draft in Ukraine as Jake Sullivan wants if the Biden Administration had, at any point over this past year, supplied Ukraine with enough armored vehicles to outfit a dozen Brigades - and that's not that many in compaison to what we have sitting out there in storage areas in the desert. Sadly, the powers-that-be among Team Blue’s oh-so-brilliant (yes, sarcasm) "leaders "appear to have decided that the risk of Ukraine winning under Trump outweighs any benefits to be gained from trying to arm Ukraine fully before Trump takes office.

You don't really believe Trump is going to give Ukraine more help than Biden has, or even as much.

 

[ChloeTzang]

You don't really believe Trump is going to give Ukraine more help than Biden has, or even as much.

I can't see Trump cutting Ukraine off. MAGA anti-Ukraine pro-Putin useful idiots aside, there's too mucd bipartisan support, much of it amongst the GOP, for that to happen. Also, note that Trumps foreign policy appointees are largely hawks, and his Ukraine negotiator, Kellogg, has been consistently pro-Ukraine. Kellogg is a retired US army general and served as a national security adviser to the former vice-president Mike Pence during Trump’s first presidency. Kellogg later became acting security adviser to Trump himself after Michael Flynn resigned in 2017. As per his plan to end Russia’s war in Ukraine, Kellogg previously told Reuters that he would emphasize getting the two countries to the negotiating table.

Now, Zelensky will come to the negotiating table. He's said so, but what Putin demands and what Ukraine will concede are worlds apart Putin doesn't want just a few oblasts. He wants Ukraine to fold, Zelensky gone and Ukraine handed over on a plate. Ain't happening and Trump won't agree to that. He's no surrender-monkey. He wants a deal, and if Putin won't deal, Trump has already said he'll turn on the taps. My belief is that exactly that will happen. We all know Putin won't negotiate in good faith. We all know Ukraine wants iron-clad security guarantees and that means foreign military on the ground on the border, or membership of NATO. Both of these would preclude Putin from taking the rest of Ukraine as soon as he manages to rebuild the Russian military. And Ukraine still holds a chunk of Kursk. Nope, Putin won't deal until he takes back Kursk - because that gives Ukraine negotiating leverage. It was a good move. By Ukraine.

So Putin will give Trump the middle finger, which he has already done. Trump will do a lend-lease deal with Ukraine - no freebies, no "billions" (which never went to Ukraine anyhow, it all went to US defense contractors) but he WILL sell Ukraine old Bradleys and Abrams and Strykers, and maybe F16's and A10's, and he will probably okay Sweden turning over Gripens to Ukraine too. Ukraine will launch an offensive in mid-2025, cross the Dnipr, bring down the Kerch bridge and take southern Kherson and Crimea, as well as cut behind the Russians and retake Mariupol. Putin will be suicided and the Russian military will collapse. Maybe even the Russian economy. Certainly their oil exports will be trashed by then.

After that.....who knows. But I'll buy you a coffee if I'm wrong.

 

[ChloeTzang]

The United States forced the Ukrainian Armed Forces to let the Russians retreat from Kherson in 2022; otherwise, Putin could have used a nuclear weapon, according to American journalist Bob Woodward.
- The original plan was to pursue the retreating Russian troops and launch massive strikes, but this did not happen.
- The probability of a nuclear strike after such actions was estimated at 50% by U.S. intelligence, as warned to Joe Biden.
- Thus, the Russians secured guarantees and retreated, retaining 30,000 soldiers and equipment.

This was speculated about at the time. There was a lot of questioning as to why the russians were allowed to retreat so easily, as they could have been caught/stopped. So, it seems russia was successful in scaring the Biden admin and misleading the American "intelligence community", yet again. Biden and Sullivan are the world’s biggest ball-less fools, a pair of irredeemable cowards.

Literally nobody believes that Putin would have used a nuclear weapon other than Joe Biden and Jake Sullivan. Russia has had 800,000 Russians killed and injured in Ukraine. They wouldn’t be using a nuclear weapon if 20,000 more were killed or injured.

History will remember Biden as one of the two worst presidents ever. The other one just died.

 

[Politruk]

He wants a deal, and if Putin won't deal, Trump has already said he'll turn on the taps. My belief is that exactly that will happen. We all know Putin won't negotiate in good faith.

We also know Trump won't ever do anything Putin doesn't want him to.

 

[Niceguy2000]

It's odd that liberals...usually anti-war, peace at all costs, call Trump names for trying to broker a peace deal.
-Does anyone here REALLY think Putin is going to wake up one day and withdrawal?

-Sanctions aren't working well enough.
-He has allies who are helping him with men, supplies, oil, and sanction work arounds.
-He controls the media at home and despite losses, still seems to have popular support.
So, in face of that...will he concede?
No.
If you were him, would you?

So, if he won't win and Ukraine can't win militarily, when will this end?

We may not like it, but sometimes the bad guys win. EXAMPLE: The west didn't like that the USSR subjugated Eastern Europe for 50 years, but NATO didn't want to send its sons to fight Russia. So, they let Stalin have his way. They weren't happy about it, but it was deemed to be in their best interest not to fight WWIII.

So, unless you know a way for Ukraine to win on the battlefield or get Putin to withdrawal, isn't it time come up with a compromise now to save Ukrainian lives?

Not a fan of Russia. Not a Putin stooge.
Just being pragmatic.

 

[ChloeTzang]

 

[ChloeTzang]

.....So, unless you know a way for Ukraine to win on the battlefield or get Putin to withdrawal, isn't it time come up with a compromise now to save Ukrainian lives?

Not a fan of Russia. Not a Putin stooge.
Just being pragmatic.

Being pragmatic, Ukraine has demonstrated that with the military equipment they need, they CAN win.

What they need are air defense systems, aircraft, helicopters, artillery ammo, IFV's, tanks, and all the ancillary equipment that equips military units - all of which they are still short of, all of which we can supply, together with the EU. That, and training, training and more training.

The ZSU is not holding a chunk of Kursk because they cannot fight. Russia is, despite appearances, losing this war militarily and economically and as long as we keep supporting Ukraine adequately, Russia will crack. They can fight on without the US if they need to - they've already proved that - a huge % of the aid they are promised has never arrived and they have seen Biden for what he is - and the Biden Administration's failure to support Ukraine in reality is one of the reasons Putin is still in this war.

 

[Niceguy2000]

Chloe...
I'm a huge fan of your work and agree with your political comments, but even with more aid (which I think is taken out of the US defense budget), Russia isn't going to quit and despite its flaws, can still produce a lot of war material. Soldiers they can get too, from "press gangs" around its empire (after North Koreans, I wonder how long it will be before we see Iranians, Palestinians and the like? Cubans or Africans perhaps?).

And remember, there is no real opposition media in Russia. The majority will believe (perhaps very cynically) what they are told. With the internet and social media it's not quite as bad as it was back in the USSR, but the general population is still going to believe what Putin tells them.
(Years ago I would have blamed the people for being so gullible, but after the last 8 years in America and seeing how a one sided media can control people....I have to change my views).

Putin can't quit. Given the situation in the country, he wouldn't live to an old age in a retirement home in the Russian equivalent of Delaware with Jillski giving Joe...sorry, Valdimer....warm soup.

I haven't seen any numbers on Ukrainian force numbers.
Do the Ukrainians have the manpower... and willpower to see this thing through?
Are Ukrainians losing the will to fight?

And sadly it takes time to train pilots, so even with donated aircraft they won't be a quick fix.
The A-10 you mention is a possible exception, flying it is pretty straightforward (I was in a A-10 unit in Europe), not a "systems" type...meaning it would be quick to train in. However, learning the proper CAS tactics, so you're not shot down would take time.

I'm on your side, bit do all the numbers add up?

 

[ChloeTzang]

I'm on your side, bit do all the numbers add up?

Well, if you look at them they start to show we're approaching an inversion point, with the real inversion happening mid-2025.

Russia is keeping themselves in the game by ransacking their old storage depots for tanks, IFV's and artillery (and stripping artillery barrels). The tanks and IFV's and guns coming out are old 1950's and 60's models. Good enough against civilians with rifles but not against a real Army, and the ZSU is now very much a real army, even with shortages. There are no armored breakthroughs by the Russians these days. They run small armored units towards the front and they are annihilated, time after time. So, tanks and IFV's are not going to get them anywhere. The stockpiles are drying up, the easily restorable armor is gone and the ones left take a lot more work to get into action. New tanks are being wiped out as soon as they reach the front and in fact the Ukrainians have captured quite a few T90's and are rebuilding their own from the kitsets supplied by the Russians.

Tanks? Leopards keep trickling in. Oz is sending 50 Abrams. Ukraine is fixing up and returning their own and Russian tanks. There's no miracle going to happen here, altho with a bit of kickass there are possibilities - but it's unlikely that those 300 Jordanian Challenger 1's will magically make their way to be refurbished and delivered to Ukraine. Nope, the only miracle that could happen here is that the USA gets off its ass and sends a couple of hundred Abrams. Could happen. Will it? I doubt it.

Now lets look at IFV's. Marders keep trickling in from Germany as they are refurbished. All of the old stuff that is going to be delivered probably already has been - but the Lynx IFV's are now rolling of the Ukrainian production line - the 1st 10 have been delivered, they plan to turn out 400 over 2025, along with a goodly number of Fuchs - and there are a couple of hundred CV90's underway for delivery. It won't happen tomorrow tho - and again, the miracle would be the USA turning over a few hundred more Bradley's and Strykers - and Biden should burn in hell for his failure to deliver these. Will not getting these case Ukraine to lose? No, but it will drag out the winning. The ZSU needs these badly, for both mobility, fire support and keeping casualties down. Those Bradley's are awesome, and so are the Lynx's, but there's nowhere near enough of them. There will be, but that's a year out.

Guns? The Russian guns have been hammered, the guns they are using are now mostly old models, outranged and their artillery crews are poorly trained and quickly wiped out. North Korean and Iran have kept them supplied with ammo (and they are getting North Korean SPG's but those won't last long in action), and they make up in volume of fire what they lack in accuracy. That said, volume of fire wears out barrels and Russia cannot manufacture enough barrels to replace, if the guns even last that long now. The Ukrainians have less guns, less ammo but greater range, better training and much better accuracy. And they are getting new guns all the time. Their own plant(s) is producing 20 x 155mm's a month and they are getting Czech and Slovak guns as well as the new German SPG's and Caesars. Ukraine is winning the artillery war and with enough ammo, will have artillery superiority soon.

Germany is now stepping up and recently supplied 50,000 x 155mm shells and is continuing to do this. Rheinmetall is stepping up production, Ukraine is stepping up their own production. The Czech initative continues to roll ammo into Ukraine....ammo from the USA is needed, but no longer critical to Ukraine's survival.

Manpower? Russia is losing more than they can replace every month now. Average losses are 1500 a day - 45k a month, and they can feed in around 30-35k a month. That's why they needed the North Koreans. Now, look at Russian offensives. They are no longer attacking everywhere in massive meat attacks. It's focus on a couple of what they see as key objectives, none of which are strategic and all of which will not be a disaster if Ukraine loses them. Those attacks are being contained and Russia is losing enormous numbers for non-strategic gains.

Drone and missile wars? Ukraine seems to have hit a new normal with respect to the strike campaign, with regular drone waves testing and stretching Russian air defenses while causing some mayhem, opening the door for bigger hits with precision missiles. Moscow attempts the same drill, but with more limited success thanks to Ukraine steadily building up its air defenses - though not enough. With 3,000 small cruise missile drone hybrids and 10,000 long-range drones scheduled for delivery in 2025, Ukraine should be able to expend hundreds of each on a monthly basis while retaining the capability to launch some truly overwhelming strikes.

Moscow, unfortunately, has been able to increase its own missile stockpiles despite sanctions. But if global Patriot interceptor production keeps pace, as it should be able to, in a relative sense Moscow will soon find itself trapped in an unpleasant situation of effective parity, at best, when it comes to strategic strikes. If Ukraine can use a significant fraction of its new assets on operational level attacks to interrupt supplies flowing to a particular front, the effects could be spectacular by summer.

Air War? The aerial fight is also trending Ukraine’s direction, if slowly. The first Mirage 2000 jets have arrived, with around ten planned by summer, and they ought to allow Ukraine to conduct opportunistic raids on high value targets. Having to rely on improvised mechanisms that need substantial pre-flight programming work limits how quickly Ukraine can respond to intelligence. But a Mirage on patrol carrying even a single Storm Shadow can be tasked in flight to take advantage of a chance to slip a weapon literally under the enemy radar to knock out a meeting of commanders. If, by summer, Ukraine does not operate at least a half dozen Gripen jets with their Meteor missiles that can outrange anything launched by Russian jets, then Europe truly is so dependent on the US that it had better do whatever Trump says. Assuming that Swedish AWACS aircraft are on patrol by then, as they should be, Ukraine would gain the ability to seize control of the skies for at least a limited time whenever it chooses.

Also, Moscow still hasn’t managed to kill an F16 Viper yet, yet every time the Russian missile waves come, Vipers are up there knocking down incoming and saving lives. One has to wonder if the best possible advanced training for a newly qualified combat pilot once they have basic competence flying the F-16 isn’t simply hunting Shaheds and Kalibrs in western Ukraine. And there's 200 wannabe F16 pilots just gone thru basic flight training in the UK. Now, all Ukraine needs is 200 F16's...... maybe a lend-lease purchase? Who knows. To train that many, they're obviously expecting to get more.... and there are still more European F16's being refurbished....

Air Defences - now there's an issue: Germany is knocking out IRIS systems and delivering - and Ukraine is now talking to Italy about buying air defence systems using frozen Russian assets to pay. Good move. They're also working on their own air defense systems. They have asked repeatedly to be able to manufacture Patriots under license but I also read somewhere they are busy working on their own knockoff. Wouldn't that be fun.

As for manpower, they have it but their draft and training system still has wrinkles that need ironing out and there IS dissatisfaction over this and about fuckups by senior officers. THAT needs fixing, but it looks like it is slowly being brought to light and worked on. And if you listen to Ukrainians, and not the western media, Ukraine is in this fight to win, one way or the other.

And as for the ucharest memorandum, the latest Ukrainian postage stamp says whats needed to be said. And Ukraine does have the ability and capability to go nuclear if needed. THAT is something for everyone to keep in mind, because my bet is that if Ukraine is not admitted to NATO, they WILL go nuclear. They don't have a choice.

 

[ChloeTzang]

In Tatarstan, the Taneco oil refinery is on fire: an air raid alert has been declared in the region, unknown drones are being sought. It is reported that the plant's employees are being evacuated, while firefighters are trying to localize the fire. One of the columns is on fire. Before that, an air raid alert sounded in the region.

Taneco is one of the largest oil refineries in the russian federation, refining about 16.2 million tons of oil annually.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1878194035199815838

What is important about it is not its size, but rather that it has a petrochemical plant coupled to the refinery that makes base Stock for synthetic rubber and plastic polymer manufacturing and is located in close proximity to other factories (KAMAZ, Yelabuga drone plant, etc) that use its products. With all the strikes on drone launch bases (Millerova, Yeysk) and other plastic and chemical plants in Rostov and Leningrad in the last week, one might think has a plan here to reduce capacity to produce and launch those drones