What's the scoop in Ukraine - latest news and commentary from the war against the Orcs

[ishtat]

I fully understand your desire for Russia to be punished, and I agree.

In a very real sense it might have been better had Russia prevailed earlier. But they didn't and the waste of blood and treasure continues. It's almost reached the point of a 'war of attrition', a state of affairs that neither nation can sustain.

Your proposal is one of appeasement. It will not work because the megalomania of Putin would take him straight on to the next target, probably the Baltic States.

The war has already achieved a great deal. The USA at the head of Western power has shown Russia and its much more formidable ally China that the USA is not to be under rated. In Financial and Human cost it is a very worthwhile cost to both the USA and Ukraine. Overall it is both morally right and a sound investment to humiliate Russia.

 

[ffish1]

The war has already achieved a great deal.
The USA at the head of Western power has shown Russia and its much more formidable ally China that the USA is not to be under rated.

In Financial and Human cost it is a very worthwhile cost to both the USA and Ukraine.
Overall it is both morally right and a sound investment to humiliate Russia.

crikey

 

[ll74]

I fully understand your desire for Russia to be punished, and I agree. But the human tragedy and the global consequences can't be ignored. No matter who "wins" it will occur at what cost?

In a very real sense it might have been better had Russia prevailed earlier. But they didn't and the waste of blood and treasure continues. It's almost reached the point of a 'war of attrition', a state of affairs that neither nation can sustain.

I see the press treating this as if it's some sort of stadium sports contest. My team versus your team. It's a sick state of mind. Every press outlet should treat this as the travesty that is is. Hell, it's gotten to the point that our domestic press barely reports it at all

The ideal situation would've been that Russia not invade to begin with. The second most ideal is that Russia would've been beaten immediately and sent back home.

The cost of war is high. Russia made the decision to start one. Ukraine has every right to defend itself.

But as we've seen in Afghanistan, when tyrants survive, even ending the bloodshed results in prolonged human suffering.

 

[LupusDei]

I fully understand your desire for Russia to be punished, and I agree. But the human tragedy and the global consequences can't be ignored. No matter who "wins" it will occur at what cost?

In a very real sense it might have been better had Russia prevailed earlier. But they didn't and the waste of blood and treasure continues. It's almost reached the point of a 'war of attrition', a state of affairs that neither nation can sustain.

I see the press treating this as if it's some sort of stadium sports contest. My team versus your team. It's a sick state of mind. Every press outlet should treat this as the travesty that is is. Hell, it's gotten to the point that our domestic press barely reports it at all

Are you insane?

Really. Ukraine is fighting a war of survival, against a genocidal, murderous, colonial invasion.

Yes, Ukraine is on course to lose 200,000+ people dead before their victory materialize (80% of those civilians murdered under occupation), but if they lose they will lose millions to occupation regime terror and concentration camps, the rest being forced to emigrate or be enslaved and used as cannon fodder for the next war. Because, Ukraine isn't even the goal on itself for Russian empire, just an obstacle (and so is the NATO, all the cries about NATO expansion is because it prevents their "righteous" expansion) and stepping stone. The plan was to take it quickly and intact to mobilize for further advances, impossible otherwise.

Fighting the war is the best course of action for Ukraine, fighting back minimize their loses and suffering, even if they end up pressured to accept concessions (what seems unlikely right now, unless the international support stops completely somehow).

The war so far had only made Ukraine stronger. Culturally, it had actualized and validated their sense of identity like nothing before. Even militarily Ukraine is at the peak of their power (so far if not ever) while Russia has been severely weakened.

And Russia remains the biggest arms provider for Ukraine still, just the last two days there's confirmed over 20 captured tanks. The arsenal near Balakliia was recaptured intact and seemingly even restocked, so legacy artillery are again in play, the munitions shortage for them relieved.

Ukraine haven't yet won, it would take many months still, probably years, but Russia has already lost the war whatever they do.

The only question is, how long still the suffering will continue. And the best, the only way to minimize suffering -- not only in Ukraine, but in the world at large -- is to ensure as swift and decisive Ukrainian victory as possible.

I say more, the only way to save Russia is to ensure as swift and decisive Ukrainian victory as possible. Ukraine will survive. Paradoxically, this war has ensured that. But the longer the war lasts the more militaristic their culture will grow. Ukrainians too can revert from creative hippies to cossack hetmans if this last too long or Russia is allowed to overrun the land and kill millions as they plan to.

 

[iso36]

We’ve had the same problem for centuries with the French in Canada.

They just won’t speak English.

And as everyone knows, they can all speak English, they’re just being bitches.

 

[LupusDei]

It's the 200th day of the full scale invasion, 3125th day of the current war.

Russian Ministry of Defense now confirming that they have left the whole are of Kharkiv Oblast West of Oskil River.

 

[LupusDei]

Allegedly, Russian escape route from Izyum (unconfirmed, take it as "illustrative")

https://twitter.com/x/status/1549079452205940736

 

[LupusDei]

Frontline overview.

Russia now has a negative progress rate when looking at the time period since June 2nd. We are talking about -1162km2 compared to last weeks +612 km2

 

[LupusDei]

Russia remains the biggest arms provider for Ukraine still, just the last two days there's confirmed over 20 captured tanks.

Basically an abandoned tank company from the 4th Tank Division in Izyum.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1568923876091957248

 

[Dribble]

I fully understand your desire for Russia to be punished, and I agree. But the human tragedy and the global consequences can't be ignored. No matter who "wins" it will occur at what cost?

In a very real sense it might have been better had Russia prevailed earlier. But they didn't and the waste of blood and treasure continues. It's almost reached the point of a 'war of attrition', a state of affairs that neither nation can sustain.

I see the press treating this as if it's some sort of stadium sports contest. My team versus your team. It's a sick state of mind. Every press outlet should treat this as the travesty that is is. Hell, it's gotten to the point that our domestic press barely reports it at all

If society is unwilling to fight fully against tyranny...it is unworthy of surviving.

 

[jaF0]

So, how is Vlad taking getting kicked in the ass with both of his own feet?

 

[LupusDei]

So, how is Vlad taking getting kicked in the ass with both of his own feet?

Reuters: ”Neither #Putin, who is #Russia supreme commander-in-chief of the armed forces, nor Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu had publicly commented on the defeat as of midday on Sunday.”

Garry Kasparov:.

As he did with “war,” Putin will have to ban the words “setback” and “retreat”. They are now “Special Military Reverse Advance”.

Who says he even knows?

Yesterday he opened a ferris wheel in Moscow (that almost immediately broke down, and, apparently tickets aren't refundable), then watched a fireworks display honoring... I'm not sure what, there's some city holidays in Moscow and apparently some kind of "tanker's day" on top.

The dissonance did in fact create some irritation between Russian war bloggers, and perhaps not only, on the internet.

 

[LupusDei]

In a very real sense it might have been better had Russia prevailed earlier.

Read the rants below, and reconsider.

From a Russian Telegram channel:

"Ukrainians, will you understand already that in Russia, only bastards think of you as a fraternal people. For a Russian to say that "a Ukrainian is my brother" is the same thing as saying "my mother is a whore. Understand that no one is going to live with you in one home. Our tanks and rockets don't bring you liberation from Banderites, but only three things:

HATE.
HATE.
HATE.

We want you to disappear as a people, as a phenomenon of the material world. Do you understand?"

From another one:

"The logic is simple, guys. Each of the previously liberated cities and now left and occupied by the adversary is a Russian city, Russian land, captured by the enemy. Each of the yet unliberated cities, where there's the adversary as well, is also a Russian city, same kind of Russian land captured by the enemy.

To the enemy who treads on Russian land without the permission of its real masters, no mercy. In anything. Not even in the smallest thing. Even in the right to breathe air produced by the trees that grow on Russian land"

Third one:

"Ok, you whores, have you played enough? Only total war, only destroyed infrastructure of Ukrainian cities, burnt plants, hunger, and collapse of all civilian life will allow us to win. Or do we need to gather donations for destroying electric power plants and..."
"... the killing of key people from the regional level and higher? We can do that. For example, fundraise for a kamikaze drone that will fly 400 km. And boom. Where it needs to do it."

Fourth Russian Telegram channel post:

"A guide for those who are new to the channel and want to clearly understand my views:

- I want the destruction of Ukraine as an independent country
- I want the full annihilation of the Ukrainian language and identity;"
"...those who hesitate or pretend like it's not their business will be reeducated, those who actively voice Ukrainism will be exterminated."
- I want to exterminate the Ukrainian leaders and their close ones as a statement
- I want to exterminate everyone who wore the uniforms...
"...of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Territorial Defense, including the POWs
- I am ready to approve moderate casualties among civilians during the filtration of cities if it saves the lives of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation during the offensive..."
"...
- I want to bomb the deep rear of the AFU and the Ukrainian state in order to destroy the war infrastructure and the ability of the Ukrainian state to wage war
- I'm even in favor of punishing bombings in retaliation for executions and injuries of Russian POWs..."

Yes, we are dealing with actual nazis here.

And no, it's not some unique propagandists, it's the pretty much official line in Russia right now. Not absolutely universal either, sure, but...

Cruise missiles were fired against power plants in Ukraine this afternoon. 2 of 11 got through, and there was widespread blackout (including Russian Belgorod that's connected to Kharkiv grid) for slightly over an hour, in some places a bit longer. The retaliatory action was widely and ecstatically cheered on Russian social media.

Putin is being criticized for being soft on Ukraine, defense minister Shaigu is being called in ethnic slurs (he's actually Tuvalu) and C in C Gerasimov had been described exclusively in sexual obscenities for weeks now. They're falling prey for his own propaganda pretending they worked with white gloves on or something. Actually, they been pretty much all in for while already, and losing anyway, but the public haven't yet realized it. Those who had, are calling for mass mobilization "even if it's with AK47 and T62 if nothing else has left".

Meanwhile, there's some anomalies in how the Russian army is retreating in Ukraine that let me speculate... it's not impossible we will see military coup in Russia, and Army will go home to fight it out with Rosgvardia (paramilitary under Interior Ministry jurisdiction, next to police, and yes, it includes Kadirovite Chechen forces in their entirety.

Clashes between Buryats and Chechens over loot in Kherson were regular occurrence in Kherson before the bridges went down (and no surprise, Buryats are Buddhist, Army and at the bottom of the ethnic caste system in Russia, Kadirovites are Muslims, Rosgvardia, and Kremlin's favorite levy, almost Russians in status, sure they feel entitled to take the stolen loot from others.

There would be little surprise if similar escalated, especially if rumors about negotiations to surrender Kherson are true, and Kadirovites tried to assume their blocking squad role.

It's not the only possible fault line, Russia can and probably will disintegrate into a dozen or so terrorist organizations with shaky alliances and regular shootouts.

 

[LupusDei]

Now for some good news, 95 of 102 entries added today to Oryx Russian loses tracker are listed as captured.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569080355444985861

 

[LupusDei]

Forbes: Ukraine has destroyed nearly $700 million worth of Russian equipment in few days. Ukraine’s General Staff said Russia has lost 2,850 troops and 590 pieces of equipment from Sept. 6 to 11, which Forbes estimates is worth over $670 million.

Ukraine’s military has also reportedly seized 129 pieces of equipment, estimated at $104 million.

 

[LupusDei]

Now, the part two:

It's 1 a.m. in Ukraine and there's a battle underway on the outskirts of Kreminna, Luhansk region. Advancing Ukrainian troops are turning the Russian retreat from Liman, Donetsk region, into a rout.

The RU forces being encircled in Liman were the reinforcements thrown in to cower the escape from Izyum.

Yesterday a RU column was seen driving through Starobilsk going south, and some remnants of 1st Guards Tank Army have been thrown back in to hold against Ukrainian expansion out of Kupyansk eastward, but overall, there's seemingly not much if any battle worthy Russian units within Ukraine north of the old Severodonetsk- Luhansk fortifications line.

 

[ll74]

This war has just been pushed onto a new track. Funny enough Putin was responsible for both changes of epic proportions.

He may very well have started a larger war.

 

[LupusDei]

This war has just been pushed onto a new track. Funny enough Putin was responsible for both changes of epic proportions.

He may very well have started a larger war.

The illegal annexations, if that's what you refer to, will change nothing, really.

The bit of most practical importance, Putin now can send spring draftees to Ukraine, and still without declaring a war. But that's almost absurd legalese that could have been sidestepped in a couple of other ways (as in, forcibly pressing most of those same draftees to sign contracts, contracts that had been extended indefinitely already). Even though it in theory that makes immediately available to him another 130k poorly trained uniformed youngsters, and that's in no way negligible, the reality on the ground it would unlikely change much.

No, not even in terms of possible use of A-bomb. Ukrainians have declared loudly, and it's seemingly a widespread sentiment, that use of nuclear weapons would increase the costs of the war, but not the course. There's certainly no possibility of surrender. And, there's indications that Biden's warning, repeated by Stoltenberg, had been heard and... Putin didn't mention nuclear weapons by name once in his over half hour long rant.

Putin is a bully, and how you contain a bully is by demonstrating resolve to employ overwhelming force, and unity.

 

[JohnEBbad]

Ukraine takes *****!

 

[JohnEBbad]

Now, that's interesting? Why does a town in Europe need to be hidden by asterisk?

Hmmmm......

 

[LupusDei]

Now, that's interesting? Why does a town in Europe need to be hidden by asterisk?

Hmmmm......

Wondered the same thing. This site has some unexpected and aggressive censors accumulated over the time. I think Liman is almost acceptable alternative transliteration, have seen it used in translations from Russian.

Anyway. Лиман has been liberated and under full Ukrainian control now. There's reports at least some Russians and/or LRN levy at least semi-succesfully broke out (it might be semi-deliberately allowed to speed up clearing of the urban area) towards Kremnia, that's today under subsequent pursuant attacks by Ukrainians. I have heard that town is fairly defensible towards south, but not so much towards north east, and that's exactly where Ukrainian pursuit is heading, and escaped Russians complain about lack of reinforcements, artillery support and even ammunition. Ukrainian immediate priority objective in this sector might be Svatove though.

Meanwhile, there's also a notable Ukrainian movement in northern Kherson along right bank of Dnipro in a fairly wide area, with, reportedly, fairly sizable forces. Panicky Russian reports mention 150+ tanks/armored vehicles breaking deep into Russian positions.

As a reminder, unlike the already rain soaked hills and river valleys with occasional forest in the north east, here in south we have still fairly dry irrigated steppe for a battlefield over with Ukraine had established at least parity if not supremacy in air too, but also, face the more effective Russian units driven into the unresupplable Dnipro west bank over past two months under pretext of the dream of breaking through to Odesa eventually but more by pressure of loudly advertised Ukrainian counter attacks. It's unclear how degraded they are by now.

 

[LupusDei]

Meanwhile, there's also a notable Ukrainian movement in northern Kherson along right bank of Dnipro in a fairly wide area, with, reportedly, fairly sizable forces. Panicky Russian reports mention 150+ tanks/armored vehicles breaking deep into Russian positions.

LOL...

I am not going to update my map in Kherson based on rumors, especially when the rumors are things like "Ukraine moved 22km this morning."

 

[Dribble]

This war is a perfect analysis of the Nash Equilibrium. It is why the World should unite against Russian aggressions. It is the only way all sides win

 

[jaF0]

Abrams incoming:

U.S. to give Ukraine advanced M1 tanks​

The Washington Post|3 hours ago
The Biden administration has decided to provide M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, overriding previous concerns that the heavy battle tanks, the world's most powerful, are too logistically burdensome for ...

 

[ishtat]

One feature of the war that is invaluable to the West is the testing of its equipment under actual war conditions. It will be interesting to see for example how the MI tank, the German Leopard, and the UK's Challenger(Chieftan?) tanks perform. When the appeasers talk about ending the war they should remember that apart from helping the Ukranians it is a testing ground that could save millions in the future by proving and improving the quality of equipment.