The latest and greatest "model"!!!

[Conager]

Lacks context. Now do:
"so mild they didn't know it was Covid 19,"
"exposed, but not infected,"
"exposed, infected, and completely asymptomatic,"
"exhibited symptoms of seasonal Flu and/or the coronavirus, visited a hospital, urgent care center, or doctor but sent home untested to self-quarantine where symptoms ran their course without requiring treatment or professional monitoring,"
"seasonal flu victims misdiagnosed as Covid 19," and
"Covid 19 patients misdiagnosed as the seasonal flu."

Until somebody performs a good study of antibodies ptesent in a random population sample of a hotspot, we know next to nothing useful about the WuFlu.

 

[bigsly]

Them - Free cake and candy for all!
Conservatives - Get your lazy ass back to work!!!

Who do you think wins that one? And why?

I'm sorry, but can you remind me of the "Conservatives" vote on sending $1,200 worth of "Free cake" while "paying" for it by racking-up trillions in debt, debt-enslaving even more American generations to come...

...which, in reality, makes who doesn't win as plain as day directly because of your "Conservatives" bullshit and, naturally, your fellow statists in the other collective political Party.

Judicial activism and socialist economics...tell me more about the glories of this "Conservatives" bullshit you exalt and exactly how it's any principally different than what your bastard bros in your authoritarian family's other collective political Party exalt, too.

Thanks, wannabe.

 

[Comshaw]

Lacks context. Now do:
"so mild they didn't know it was Covid 19,"
"exposed, but not infected,"
"exposed, infected, and completely asymptomatic,"
"exhibited symptoms of seasonal Flu and/or the coronavirus, visited a hospital, urgent care center, or doctor but sent home untested to self-quarantine where symptoms ran their course without requiring treatment or professional monitoring,"
"seasonal flu victims misdiagnosed as Covid 19," and
"Covid 19 patients misdiagnosed as the seasonal flu."

Until somebody performs a good study of antibodies ptesent in a random population sample of a hotspot, we know next to nothing useful about the WuFlu.

So we should ignore the numbers we have because you believe they don't mean anything? Uh hu, yea, right.

With the numbers I posted, we do know the end outcome, at least so far, a 21% mortality rate. Even if some of those cases were misdiagnosed, say 5% (which I doubt) and even if all of those recovered, that still means a 16% mortality rate. The mortality rate for the Spanish flu pandemic in 1918 was estimated to be around 20%, very close to the percentages showing so far for the Corvid virus.

So you enjoy yourself verbally tap dancing around it, trying to ignore what is.


Comshaw


https://www.healthline.com/health/1918-flu-pandemic-facts#4

 

[bigsly]

The climate change deal fits the same pattern.

As does Trump as an undeniable Russian asset.

As did Kavanaugh the unarguable sexual assaulter.

As does everything emotionally hyperbolic progressives deem to pathetically, partisanly exploit.

But excluding, just as pathetically partisan of course, Joe Biden as even a possible sexual assaulter, which gets nothing but crickets from them, naturally, because, hey, just because that's as realistically abhorrent as exactly what we fry the other side for, he's still our tribe mate and we must protect our own - at any cost.

And that's the way it is in this repugnant game of political partsianship both statist/collective Parties are absolute experts at.

Don't Wanna Play By Their Repugnantly Partisan Rules?

Simple:

Don't Play Their Repugnantly Partisan Game.

 

[Conager]

So we should ignore the numbers we have because you believe they don't mean anything? Uh hu, yea, right.

With the numbers I posted, we do know the end outcome, at least so far, a 21% mortality rate. Even if some of those cases were misdiagnosed, say 5% (which I doubt) and even if all of those recovered, that still means a 16% mortality rate. The mortality rate for the Spanish flu pandemic in 1918 was estimated to be around 20%, very close to the percentages showing so far for the Corvid virus.

So you enjoy yourself verbally tap dancing around it, trying to ignore what is.


Comshaw


https://www.healthline.com/health/1918-flu-pandemic-facts#4

No, that is not a 21% mortality rate. That's a small sample specifically selected as already bad enough to REQUIRE hospitalization.

Nothing we are seeing suggests that one out of five Americans could die from covid19. Not even in the realm of the possible. Current estimates are about .5 percent of all of those who wne exposed to the virus actually develop covid 19 die. Half of a percent is nowhere near one fifth.

..and that is just the ones that develop symptoms. Nevermind the ones who are exposed and either do not contract covid19 or do contract it, but are asymptomatic.

You do realize it hospitals send people home without admitting them, right? MOST people who seek medical attention for possible Covid19 (which is indistinguishable from the seasonal flu without a test) are sent home to self-quarantine with or without a test, with or without a Dx of Covid19? Protocol says you treat exactly like you would the common flu until you have difficulty breathing. Only those who *may* require intubation are admitted for observation.. a few who do not meet that criterion but are high risk due to comorbid conditions have been given medication prophylactically, and anecdotally all of those given the cocktail have not only survived, did not require intubation later.

Correctly identifying the holes in your mathematics and your logic is not verbally tap dancing. It's pointing out that your selective stats do not add up to the conclusions that you are drawing.

 

[bigsly]

Last week, they wailed for ventilators.

This week (and it's only Monday), they're returning the multitudes they never really had any actual use for.

And all of a sudden, constantly revising model numbers can't seem to go down fast enough.

Bombing just like the ratings for Keeping Up With The Hysterias.

 

[Conager]

Respirator math was always silly, in any case. They're not magic machines that you just set an forget like a Showtime Rotisserie Oven. The choke point was always technicians, not equipment.

I read somewhere though wherw they are trying to come up with ventilators that can monitor themselves.

Emergency defibrillators are pretty goof proof. In theory a person who has no idea what one is or how to use one can safely administer one. They may not get it right, but it will do know harm if they try.

 

[SpeareChucker]

So we should ignore the numbers we have because you believe they don't mean anything? Uh hu, yea, right.

With the numbers I posted, we do know the end outcome, at least so far, a 21% mortality rate. Even if some of those cases were misdiagnosed, say 5% (which I doubt) and even if all of those recovered, that still means a 16% mortality rate. The mortality rate for the Spanish flu pandemic in 1918 was estimated to be around 20%, very close to the percentages showing so far for the Corvid virus.

So you enjoy yourself verbally tap dancing around it, trying to ignore what is.


Comshaw


https://www.healthline.com/health/1918-flu-pandemic-facts#4

Knowing the numerator is not knowing the denominator.

What part of that don't you understand?

 

[Conager]

Knowing the numerator is not knowing the denominator.

What part of that don't you understand?

He has only a fractional interest in the math involved. . .

 

[SpeareChucker]

*chuckle*

 

[bellisarius]

Knowing the numerator is not knowing the denominator.

What part of that don't you understand?

"Lies, damned lies, and statistics" - Author unknown.

 

[SpeareChucker]

Somehow someone is stuck on, first model = best model.

We, as pointed out, have no real baseline, only an assumption.
This is the problem with modeling chaotic systems,
but then, I am repeating myself...

 

[bellisarius]

Precisely, something like this can't be modeled with any precision before, or during, the evolution. Far too many unknowns.

 

[SpeareChucker]

The Eeyore Syndrome
Victor Davis Hanson, NRO

In A. A. Milne’s classic Winne-the-Pooh children’s tales, Eeyore, the old gray donkey, is perennially pessimistic and gloomy. He always expects the worst to happen.

Milne understood that Eeyore’s outbursts of depression could at first be salutatory but then become monotonous. The outlook of the pessimist (“if you think it’s bad now, just wait”) always enjoys advantages over both the realist (“so what, life goes on”) and the optimist (“oh, come on, it can’t be that bad”).

When the pessimist frequently errs in his gloomy prognostications, he can plead that they were intended to be didactic, if not therapeutic. Only by offering scarifying models can the glum epidemiologist and statesman sufficiently terrify the public and thereby allow policymakers to enact the necessary draconian shelter-in-place protocols. That strategy could apply to the recent near celebrity Neil Morris Ferguson, OBE FMedSci, the British epidemiologist and professor of mathematical biology at the Imperial College in London, whose “2 million” possible deaths terrified America into lockdown, just as his modeled “500,000” fatalities in Britain did the same in his own homeland.

If the Eeyores are proven right, then, they are seen as not only prescient but sanctified — the voices in the wilderness who spoke the inconvenient truths that saved lives.

The sunnier prognosticators suffer a lose-lose dilemma rather than the pessimist’s win-win chances. If one doubts these original nightmarish Imperial College worst-case predications of 2 million-plus deaths in the United States, and is proven correct, it matters little. The pessimist argues that it was only his bleak forecasts that changed behaviors and that, without such changes, the optimist’s obviously faulty data and poor reasoning would have led policymakers over a clif

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020...ers-pessimists-need-dose-of-humility/#slide-1

 

[bellisarius]

The Eeyore Syndrome
Victor Davis Hanson, NRO



https://www.nationalreview.com/2020...ers-pessimists-need-dose-of-humility/#slide-1

You'll never meet a disappointed pessimist.

 

[SpeareChucker]

Good observation.

 

[SpeareChucker]

A final note. The learn-nothing/forget-nothing Left, in the manner of Talleyrand’s purported appraisal of the Bourbons, could be setting itself up for another 25th-Amendment-Stormy-Mueller-Impeachment–Wiley E. Coyote moment. By charging that Trump alone is responsible for the purportedly culpable reaction to the virus (as in such quotes as the “Trump virus,” “blood on his hands,” and “as the president fiddled, people died”), and specifically the initial lapses of the CDC in green-lighting tests and the comments (perhaps also channeled from Anthony Fauci’s initial assessments) that the virus could be comparable to a severe flu, the Left has assured that Trump will be credited for being responsible for good news if the Eeyores are wrong. Have the latter really modeled the effects of a variety of efficacious off-label drug treatments already in use, the unknown number of people who already have antibodies, putting the country back to work with reasonable cautionary policies in a month, a vaccine in near trials, and a global Nobel Prize race to find antidotes and prophylactics to the virus?

Given the media’s horrific prognostications of mass death, and given the Left’s insistence that Donald Trump owns the nation’s reaction to the virus, if the U.S. dodges the viral bullet and ends up by midsummer with far less death, infection, hospitalizations, and economic damage than predicted, then we know what follows: a boomerang that paints Trump as also owning a miraculous recovery from what was once forecast as some sort of 1918-type wipeout.

VDH


Possibly bad news for the bad news bears...

If only this could have been timed for the fall,
the fall..., get it?

 

[bellisarius]

VDH


Possibly bad news for the bad news bears...

If only this could have been timed for the fall,
the fall..., get it?

I'll point it out once more, it is the various governor's that have shut the economy down. No such edict has emanated from DC. Trump can't order the governors to shut down their states, nor can he order them to open for business once more. Watching what states do what, and who's running them, will be educational.

I notice that Chicago is trying to turn this into a racial issue.

 

[SpeareChucker]

It's so much easier to hate the one guy than it is 50.



:shrug:


Target, isolate, ridicule
I've heard that somewhere before...

 

[bellisarius]

It's so much easier to hate the one guy than it is 50.



:shrug:


Target, isolate, ridicule
I've heard that somewhere before...

Was in a book wasn't it?

 

[SpeareChucker]

Yeah, but it wasn't a big book,
a quick, easy read with no big words,
probably out of necessity...

​

 

[Lancecastor19]

Epidemics tend to follow a bell curve distribution pattern and changing that transcends politics.

Nature and human nature tend to be greater drivers of change than politics or politicians.

When things are good, people tend to believe the good times will never end.

And when things are bad, people tend to believe the bad times will never end.

This pandemic will have a beginning, a middle and an end (maybe with an Epilogue or two, like a Quinn-Martin Production).

The USA, being the Global Leader in individual versus group rights, will probably have bigger numbers of infections and deaths (both absolute and per capita) than any other country when all is said and done.

If I were a Trump re-election strategist, I'd be banking on a virus-induced low voter turnout this November, as low voter turnout tends to favor the incumbent.

(and conspiracy theorists ought to be saying Trump wants Covid-19 to stretch out as long as possible to be the patsy for the long-overdue economic downturn)

Why Biden strategists are letting him sit in a basement astounds me...nothing says Loser more than basement-dwelling.

Regardless, this will run its course. The sun will shine again. Harry will buy new scooter scarves. Glam will return to glory holes.

 

[SpeareChucker]

"Why Biden strategists are letting him sit in a basement astounds me...nothing says Loser more than basement-dwelling."


Especially when Trump is out there every day.
I hate to say it, but it does tend to make him look like a leader...

 

[Lancecastor19]

"Why Biden strategists are letting him sit in a basement astounds me...nothing says Loser more than basement-dwelling."


Especially when Trump is out there every day.
I hate to say it, but it does tend to make him look like a leader...

I agree. Biden has all but evaporated.

Maybe it's strategic...none of this can stick to him if he keeps his mouth shut.

Where are the campaign face masks?

 

[SpeareChucker]

If Joe shows up in a mask,
he looks like a pussy.

True to form?

Then again, he's always challenging people to fights...
Microphone tough guy.