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Hopefully it will work out, I am not a big fan of ballot initiatives for the very simple fact that they don't always represent good law or quite frankly, the will of the people either. Proposition 8 in California in part happened because opponents of same sex marriage were more motivated to come out then those who believe in it (it is why polls don't mean much, they should also ask people when polled what percentage of elections do they vote in...). The other problem is we are in an age where matters are no longer state matters, the Mormon church spent 10's of millions of dollars in California on negative ads and other propaganda (and when asked about this influence the church said something to the effect they were only supporting the right of the people to vote as they saw fit; I wonder if they see the irony in that, that if the Mormon church had been subjected to a vote by ballot their members would likely have been killed ages ago, if it weren't for the first amendment.....).
It probably will boil down to how motivated independent and democratic leaning voters are to go to the polls; if aren't thrilled enough by the presidential candidates to vote, GOP base voters will decide the issue and it won't pass.
I do not doubt his theories and statements. I think the President Obama bounce may well have faded on this issue by the time November rolls around and people will go back to voting their innate bigot. It's easy to stand with a poll worker and pretend to be fair and balanced it is harder to mark the box that gives a bunch of freaks and abby normals "new Rights".