Will a Republican run against Trump in 2020?

[MGurkus]

Discuss.

Or

Don't.

 

[Hypoxia]

I'm sure *someone* will come along to post something relevant. Eventually. Till then... let's see, the rum is getting low and I really should fire up the little Krups espresso brewer and squirt myself a cup of high-grade. I use this in-the-morning coffee evolved-consciousness metric:

* Before the first cup, I'm Republican.
* After the first cup, I'm Democrat.
* With the third cup, I'm a Green.

Like quick-evolving from slime to wisdom, init? I just need to get those higher thought processes kick-started. The primordial reptilian hindbrain sends out its barbaric demands: Food! Drink! Sex! Coffee! Shit! Run! The beast in me scuttles about. Oh yes, coffee! [/me forked tongue flickers]
_____

ObTopic: Will a Guppy run against Tromp in 2020? Depends on who's left alive by then.

 

[lickitandstickit]

http://i.imgur.com/8l9ZBXm.jpg

 

[BotanyBoy]

http://i.imgur.com/8l9ZBXm.jpg

Every.....four......years.

 

[domroger]

http://i.imgur.com/8l9ZBXm.jpg

Bit late ,it happened last year .

 

[DMBFFF]

http://i.imgur.com/8l9ZBXm.jpg

I'm sure some will run against Pence come 2020, though he will have been an incumbent for a year or so. The Democrats will bleed from centrists versus progressives and the resulting candidate will get even fewer votes, popular and electoral, than Hillary did. Trump and Pence will openly act as buddies while he boasts about how he's been the greatest president in American history. Ivanka might still be found in the White House.

 

[Tryharder62]

I might go for it!

 

[Hypoxia]

I'm sure some will run against Pence come 2020, though he will have been an incumbent for a year or so.

Kid Rock, cumming his way!

The Democrats will bleed from centrists versus progressives and the resulting candidate will get even fewer votes, popular and electoral, than Hillary did.

HRC received more presidential votes than any white man in US history. She lost by 75k votes in 3 counties, and thus the game because rules. DNC has little motive to change their national approach -- except they've lost substantially down-ticket, at state and local levels. Dums are hollowed-out as a party. Gups are more solid, but disastrous. Oy.

Trump and Pence will openly act as buddies while he boasts about how he's been the greatest president in American history. Ivanka might still be found in the White House.

This assumes that Pence and Tromps haven't been removed somehow and that POTUS hasn't started a war. Neither are certain.

 

[Hypoxia]

I might go for it!

Please do! You need to assemble a staff and start fellating donors right away. Hire a propaganda meme-mill to tweet your disinfo so as to build your fanatic base. Supply hot material to Breitbart and InfoWars. Stage some notorious public stunts; be sure the vids go viral. Play some stand-up gigs anonymously; learn to work a crowd. Then, lie a lot. You'll do great!

 

[Boxlicker101]

Kid Rock, cumming his way!

HRC received more presidential votes than any white man in US history. She lost by 75k votes in 3 counties, and thus the game because rules. DNC has little motive to change their national approach -- except they've lost substantially down-ticket, at state and local levels. Dums are hollowed-out as a party. Gups are more solid, but disastrous. Oy.


This assumes that Pence and Tromps haven't been removed somehow and that POTUS hasn't started a war. Neither are certain.

You have said this a couple of times, and I have asked you what three counties you mean, and you have never answered. On one of my queries, I even went into some detail about WI, OH, MI and PA, and how she won in the large counties in those states, but you have never clarified.

 

[Hypoxia]

You have said this a couple of times, and I have asked you what three counties you mean, and you have never answered. On one of my queries, I even went into some detail about WI, OH, MI and PA, and how she won in the large counties in those states, but you have never clarified.

Just did a quick gargle and found this news blog first:

The Trump landslide — three counties carried the day

The Cook Political Report comes up with a piece of election trivia that illustrates the critical nature of three states in the presidential election.

1. Effectively 77,759 votes in three states (WI/PA/MI) determined the Presidency: Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump won by:

22,748 votes in WI, 0.7 of a point (3rd party candidates received: 188,330)

44,307 votes in PA, 0.7 of a point, (3rd party candidates received: 218,228)

10,704 votes in MI, 0.2 of a point (3rd party candidates received: 250,902 votes)

2. Just three counties – Macomb County, MI; York County, PA and Waukesha County, WI – elected Donald Trump. If those three counties had cast zero votes, Trump would have lost all three states and the election.

OK. It is also true that both sides can play this game. Adds the Cook Report:

By the same logic, just three counties re-elected President Obama in 2012: Miami-Dade County, FL; Cuyahoga County, OH and Philadelphia, PA.

Just election trivia. And this one is more telling:

Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton carried the popular vote by more than 2.8 million votes, and 2.1 percentage points. But while she narrowly improved on President Obama's margin in non-swing states (4.1% vs. 4.0%), she vastly underperformed in the 13 swing states that actually mattered: Obama's 3.6-percent margin in those states morphed into a 1.8-percent Trump lead.

Lots more interesting stuff, some that will challenge conventional wisdom. For example, polling was closer to the outcome in 2016 than in 2012.

 

[wheres_the_beef]

kasich is a definite possibility.

He's term limited and is out of work come Jan 2019. He's already had a lengthy House career before leaving political life the first time. OH doesn't have a Senate seat race in 2020 and the 2022 race is for a seat held by a Republican he supported. Trump isn't likely to give him an appointment in DC after their history. Waiting just makes his case even weaker.

He's done a lot of the usual prep work for someone contemplating a run in the next cycle. He released the political book and did the book tour earlier this year (which included a large event on a college campus in NH...I'm sure they buy a lot of books ) He's dabbled on the talk show circuit and written some Op-eds for major papers not in Ohio. Maybe he doesn't run but he sure seems to be trying to raise his national profile beyond simply the requirements of his job.

 

[Wrong Element]

kasich is a definite possibility.

He's term limited and is out of work come Jan 2019. He's already had a lengthy House career before leaving political life the first time. OH doesn't have a Senate seat race in 2020 and the 2022 race is for a seat held by a Republican he supported. Trump isn't likely to give him an appointment in DC after their history. Waiting just makes his case even weaker.

He's done a lot of the usual prep work for someone contemplating a run in the next cycle. He released the political book and did the book tour earlier this year (which included a large event on a college campus in NH...I'm sure they buy a lot of books ) He's dabbled on the talk show circuit and written some Op-eds for major papers not in Ohio. Maybe he doesn't run but he sure seems to be trying to raise his national profile beyond simply the requirements of his job.

This is all true. I would also add that unlike most of the crowd that ran in the 2016 primaries, he has never really backed away from his criticisms of Trump at the time.

So his chance rests in the hope that sometime in the next 2 1/2 years, the entire country, including what's left of the GOP, will be so disgusted with Trump that it will turn to the most prominent Republican who never bent the knee. But Kasich does not have a strong national constituency, and I don't think it's possible for a political party to change that much in that short a period of time. Trump is the epitome of what they used to call in the 1980s "the party of ideas" has turned into.

 

[wheres_the_beef]

But Kasich does not have a strong national constituency, and I don't think it's possible for a political party to change that much in that short a period of time.

Kasich's at least playing the usual game to try and build a national constituency. It's not necessarily all that big of a change for him to push Trump either. Trump had a touch under 42% of the primary vote at the point he locked up the election. Trump had a sizeable minority of strongly committed voters. In a wide field, with winner take all/most, that was enough.

If Trump was reaching out to other elements in the GOP to cement the internal coalition he'd probably be untouchable in the primaries ....like a typical incumbent. That hasn't exactly been his style.

 

[Boxlicker101]

Kasich's at least playing the usual game to try and build a national constituency. It's not necessarily all that big of a change for him to push Trump either. Trump had a touch under 42% of the primary vote at the point he locked up the election. Trump had a sizeable minority of strongly committed voters. In a wide field, with winner take all/most, that was enough.

If Trump was reaching out to other elements in the GOP to cement the internal coalition he'd probably be untouchable in the primaries ....like a typical incumbent. That hasn't exactly been his style.

Kasich was a respected governor from a large state in 2016. He gained national recognition by running in primary elections against Trump and the rest of the field. He would probably have the best chance of beating Trump for the 2020 nomination.

 

[Hypoxia]

Kashich whom? Er I mean, Kasich who?
That'll be the general national reaction.
Who's this turd, and where's my beer?

Yah, potentials still have maybe till the 2018 midterms to build a national reputation. Steady and boring won't do it, as Tromp proved. Flamboyance will win; ordinary will lose. Anyone seriously contesting in 2020 better have a TV show now.

 

[Boxlicker101]

Another Potential GOP Candidate

Here is somebody else who might run against Trump in 2020: http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/US-...ob=1757284_10082017&s=al&dkt_nbr=010124u9b7h7

For one thing, he has an interesting name.

 

[Aglaopheme]

All of the moderate Repubilcans I know were in camp Kasich.

 

[Wrong Element]

All of the moderate Repubilcans I know were in camp Kasich.

For someone like me who remembers when Kasich was still in the Ohio state senate and doing things like railing against mandatory seat belt laws as an example of intrusive government, the idea of him as some "moderate" is pretty damn funny. He was a first generation Ronald Reagan/Jack Kemp disciple. He only seems moderate now because the rest of his party is in the middle of the world's longest Kool-Aid binge.

Kasich won the Ohio primary fairly easily, but there was a debate the other day featuring the announced GOP candidates for governor, and he took quite a few hits. I don't think he could beat Trump again in Ohio if a primary were held right now, unless there were a whole lot of Dem crossovers.

 

[MGurkus]