Why would the PRC invade Taiwan?

[pecksniff]

Consider all the trouble they have had integrating Hong Kong into their system. That's only one city. Taiwan would present a much, much bigger headache.

 

[CornusKousa]

Control freaks gotta control.

 

[AlterErgo]

Consider all the trouble they have had integrating Hong Kong into their system. That's only one city. Taiwan would present a much, much bigger headache.

idiot

 

[pecksniff]

Control freaks gotta control.

Sane ones acknowledge their limitations. How can they control a conquered Taiwan? This ain't some sparsely-populated desert province like Xinjiang -- the population of Taiwan is 23 million. And practically none of them are Communists now -- no Communist party plays any role in their politics. There are one or two lefty parties, but they're not big enough to matter, no seats in the Diet.

Best-case scenario: The PRC attacks and loses, as the wargames predict. (Remember, Taiwan has been preparing for this since 1949 and has never had any other military priorities at all.)

Worst-case scenario: They win, and there's a prolonged insurgency in Taiwan, and the U.S. gets dragged into it.

 

[AlterErgo]

idiot

 

[The_Trouvere]

History is moving in China's direction, just as it is moving against the United States. I expect China to achieve world hegemony by the end of this century, if not sooner. Military aggression is not necessary to achieve this. Military aggression will have unpredictable results that may prevent this from happening. I doubt most mainland Chinese would approve of an unprovoked invasion of other Chinese.

 

[pecksniff]

I doubt most mainland Chinese would approve of an unprovoked invasion of other Chinese.

Does that matter?

 

[bellisarius]

History is moving in China's direction, just as it is moving against the United States. I expect China to achieve world hegemony by the end of this century, if not sooner. Military aggression is not necessary to achieve this. Military aggression will have unpredictable results that may prevent this from happening. I doubt most mainland Chinese would approve of an unprovoked invasion of other Chinese.

You are wrong. I have worked with many mainland Chinese over the years, some communist, some not. But they were all agreed the Taiwan is part of China and must return to the fold. Xi has stated on numerous occasions that he will use force to bring Taiwan back so why does anyone doubt him?

It's just a matter of when. The original time line was 2025, I suspect it may move up based on Biden's weakness.

And for those of you trying to make some sort of logical argument, forget it. You aren't Chinese and Taiwan is an emotional sore point.

 

[The_Trouvere]

Does that matter?

It certainly would if the standard of most Chinese declined as a result of the invasion. The Chinese economy depends on exports. These would stop in the event of sanctions against China.

 

[pecksniff]

It certainly would if the standard of most Chinese declined as a result of the invasion. The Chinese economy depends on exports. These would stop in the event of sanctions against China.

I suppose the PRC could sell that to the people, if they had to, by the prospect of absorbing Taiwan's own rich manufacturing economy.

Which a war would necessarily damage, of course.

 

[pecksniff]

You are wrong. I have worked with many mainland Chinese over the years, some communist, some not. But they were all agreed the Taiwan is part of China and must return to the fold.

I would suspect that is not so much a matter of Communism as Chinese nationalism -- that is, not, "All the world must be Communist!" but "All Chinese territory must be united in One China!" The same thinking might operate if Taiwan were Communist and the mainland not.

 

[The_Trouvere]

I suppose the PRC could sell that to the people, if they had to, by the prospect of absorbing Taiwan's own rich manufacturing economy.

Which a war would necessarily damage, of course.

Taiwan's own rich manufacturing economy is what the mainland could achieve under a democratic government.

 

[pecksniff]

Taiwan's own rich manufacturing economy is what the mainland could achieve under a democratic government.

Probably, but what are the prospects we'll live to see that? It would require a much, much bigger and more widely popular movement than that which manifested in 1989.

 

[CornusKousa]

Sane ones acknowledge their limitations.

Yes .... but the sane ones aren't the problem.

How can they control a conquered Taiwan?

Same way anyone controls a conquered territory.

Overwhelming firepower and a whole lot of "Common sense" regulations "for their own good".... because CCP knows best!!

Worst-case scenario: They win, and there's a prolonged insurgency in Taiwan, and the U.S. gets dragged into it.

If the PRC attacks Taiwan I don't think the US has any interest in not helping them and the rest of our allies.

If we don't China owns Asia and the pacific. Chinese Yuan becomes world reserve currency.... the western 1st world becomes Chinas bitch.

Best case scenario if China "reunifies" with Taiwan... they take it, that's it, nobody does shit else.

Worst case scenario, Japan/Australia other S. China sea nations get into it and we have to WWIII our way out of it.

 

[jaF0]

Do we not understand that it is Chinese territory and the leaders are Chinese government officials in exile and in defiance of the current government?


"After the end of World War II, the Chinese Civil War resumed between the Chinese Nationalists (Kuomintang), led by Director-general Chiang Kai-shek, and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), led by CCP Chairman Mao Zedong. Throughout the months of 1949, a series of Chinese Communist offensives led to the capture of its capital Nanjing on 23 April and the subsequent defeat of the Nationalist army on the mainland, and the Communists founded the People's Republic of China on 1 October.[102]

On 7 December 1949, after the loss of four capitals, Chiang evacuated his Nationalist government to Taiwan and made Taipei the temporary capital of the ROC (also called the "wartime capital" by Chiang Kai-shek).[103] Some 2 million people, consisting mainly of soldiers, members of the ruling Kuomintang and intellectual and business elites, were evacuated from mainland China to Taiwan at that time, adding to the earlier population of approximately six million. These people came to be known in Taiwan as 'Mainlanders' (Waishengren, 外省人). In addition, the ROC government took to Taipei many national treasures and much of China's gold reserves and foreign currency reserves.[104][105][106]

After losing control of mainland China in 1949, the ROC retained control of Taiwan and Penghu (Taiwan, ROC), parts of Fujian (Fujian, ROC)—specifically Kinmen, Wuqiu (now part of Kinmen) and the Matsu Islands and two major islands in the South China Sea (within the Dongsha/Pratas and Nansha/Spratly island groups). These territories have remained under ROC governance until the present day."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan#Republic_of_China_(1945–1949)



What would the US do if Donny's people had fled to the USVI after 1-6 and set up a new Government, country and economy?

 

[jaF0]

It's not even officially recognized by the UN:

"The ROC no longer represents China as a member of the United Nations, after UN members voted in 1971 to recognize the PRC instead. Meanwhile, the ROC continued to claim to be the legitimate representative of China and its territory, although this has been downplayed since its democratization in the 1990s. Taiwan is claimed by the PRC, which refuses diplomatic relations with countries that recognise the ROC. Taiwan maintains official diplomatic relations with 14 out of 193 UN member states and the Holy See,"




It might be interesting to offer a deal to let them have Taiwan in exchange for abandoning their claims in the South China Sea.

 

[pecksniff]

If we don't China owns Asia and the pacific.

That is inevitable. It will happen, regardless of what happens to Taiwan or SK or Japan. In the same way the U.S. owns the Western Hemisphere, despite the independence and hostility of Cuba and Venezuela.

 

[pecksniff]

What would the US do if Donny's people had fled to the USVI after 1-6 and set up a new Government, country and economy?

Waver between amusement and bemusement.

 

[pecksniff]

Do we not understand that it is Chinese territory and the leaders are Chinese government officials in exile and in defiance of the current government?

AIUI, it used to be Taiwan's official policy to claim sovereignty over Mongolia, because it was part of the Qing Empire.

 

[CornusKousa]

AIUI, it used to be Taiwan's official policy to claim sovereignty over Mongolia, because it was part of the Qing Empire.

Mongolia laughed...they ain't got shit to prove to no fuckin' Chinese.

 

[Earthlyone]

History is moving in China's direction, just as it is moving against the United States. I expect China to achieve world hegemony by the end of this century, if not sooner. Military aggression is not necessary to achieve this. Military aggression will have unpredictable results that may prevent this from happening. I doubt most mainland Chinese would approve of an unprovoked invasion of other Chinese.

China is a house of cards which will come crashing down eventually.

 

[pecksniff]

China is a house of cards which will come crashing down eventually.

They are expanding their reach. This is not a sign of decline.

 

[mayfly13]

I have been watching lately vids. by two Western (South African and American) who lived for more than 10 years in China.
https://www.youtube.com/user/serpentza
https://www.youtube.com/user/laowhy86
I recommend them to anyone who wants to learn about the Real China in a fun &entertaining way and beyond the CCP pr Leftist propaganda and

The guys' sentiment is a bit too anti-Chinese, but they Finally made me understand the so-hard to grasp Chinese mentality and way of life.

All the other China-based Western youtubers? They keep sucking up to China non-stop, either because they fear being booted out, or because they are on CCP's pay-roll.
In fact, serpentza and lao86 eventually left China after CCP started building a case against them.

You are wrong. I have worked with many mainland Chinese over the years, some communist, some not. But they were all agreed the Taiwan is part of China and must return to the fold. Xi has stated on numerous occasions that he will use force to bring Taiwan back so why does anyone doubt him?

It's just a matter of when. The original time line was 2025, I suspect it may move up based on Biden's weakness.

And for those of you trying to make some sort of logical argument, forget it. You aren't Chinese and Taiwan is an emotional sore point.

Anyway, I digress.

The two youtubers said that Chinese feel similarly about Vietnam too (a former province of China).
In fact, according to lao86/serpentza, Vietnamese language and traditions are eerily similar to /or even derived from?

 

[The_Trouvere]

I think it would be a good idea for Taiwan to announce its willingness to join the mainland of China, but only if the mainland adopts a democratic government with regular contested elections, and open political debate. The Chinese Communist Party would continue to exist, but it would compete with other parties on equal terms.

The Communist leaders of mainland China would not like that idea. It would be good for world opinion of Taiwan, and probably for public opinion on the mainland.

 

[pecksniff]

The two youtubers said that Chinese feel similarly about Vietnam too (a former province of China).
In fact, according to lao86/serpentza, Vietnamese language and traditions are eerily similar to /or even derived from?

That is the case all over East Asia. All China's neighbors copied its civilization in some respects. SK and Japan are to this day heavily Confucian.