Why are senior citizens turning against the GOP?

[KingOrfeo]

Polling shows that they are, but not why.

As bad as things get for Republicans -- with women, with minorities, with youths -- there's always been one group they can count on: the old. But now one Democratic pollster sees evidence that even seniors are starting to turn on the GOP.

Just 28 percent of voters 65 and older had a favorable view of the Republican Party in a national survey conducted last month by the Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg, versus 40 percent who had a positive view of the Democrats. That's a reversal from a poll Greenberg conducted in early 2011, when 43 percent of seniors saw Republicans favorably and 37 percent saw Democrats that way.

"It is now strikingly clear that [seniors] have turned sharply against the GOP," Erica Seifert, a senior associate at Greenberg's firm, wrote on the company's website this week. "We have seen other voters pull back from the GOP, but among no group has this shift been as sharp as it is among senior citizens."

More seniors still said they plan to vote Republican than Democrat in 2014, 46 percent to 41 percent. But that 5-point margin is down from the 21-point margin seniors gave the GOP in 2010, according to exit polls. In 2012, voters 65 and over were Mitt Romney's strongest age group, favoring the GOP nominee by 12 points. (Romney outpolled his two GOP nominee predecessors, John McCain and the 2004 campaign of George W. Bush, who both won seniors by 8 points.)

The shift is particularly significant, Seifert noted, because seniors are the most reliable voters in the electorate -- and the most likely to turn out in the presidential off-year of 2014. Among all voters, Republicans still led the generic congressional ballot in Greenberg's poll, but by a single point, 44 percent to 43 percent. The poll of 841 likely 2014 voters was conducted by cell phone and land line July 10 to 15 and carries a 3-point margin of error in either direction.

The senior shift was an unexpected result that jumped out of a poll Greenberg was conducting for the Women's Voices Women Vote Action Fund focused on unmarried women's views on economic policy. Seifert believes it's largely a reaction to the Republican-backed plan by Rep. Paul Ryan to phase in changes to the Medicare system, which dates to 2011. But the slide appears to have accelerated this year: Greenberg clocked Republicans' advantage with the over-65 vote at 11 points in January, 6 in March and 5 in July. "That's the sort of shift that turns the tables," Siefert told me.

The economy is the biggest underlying factor in the shift, Seifert said. In November 2010, 49 percent of seniors said Republicans were the better party on the economy; just 34 percent said Democrats were. In the July 2013 poll, the parties were essentially tied on this metric, with 43 percent saying Democrats and 42 percent saying Republicans.

Seniors' approval of the GOP-led House has dropped from 45 percent in early 2011 to 22 percent today. They have gone from identifying more as Republicans than Democrats by a 10-point margin to identifying more as Democrats than Republicans by a 6-point margin. Fifty-five percent say the GOP is too extreme, and 52 percent say it is "out of touch" and "dividing the country."

In the July survey, large majorities of seniors agreed with progressive economic proposals, including protecting Medicare benefits (89 percent), raising working women's pay (87 percent) and expanding access to child care for working parents (77 percent). But seniors also took issue with the GOP on social concerns: slim majorities called the Republican Party "extreme" on aid to the poor (53 percent), immigration (53 percent), gay rights (52 percent), and gun violence (51 percent).

Greenberg is a Democratic pollster, to be sure. But his work is widely respected on both sides of the aisle. Republican pollster Whit Ayres didn't question the idea that seniors are souring on the GOP. "I don't think any Republican pollster who's looking at the numbers is sanguine about the state of the Republican brand at this point," he said. "You are going to see the impact of the damaged brand in every demographic group."

Nonetheless, Ayres noted, Greenberg's survey still has Republicans poised to win in 2014, if by a narrower margin than the 2010 wave. "What is striking to me in this survey is that the generic ballot is a dead heat," he said. "Republicans are actually one point ahead."

Seifert, however, believes Republicans' advantage could erode if the party keeps up its emphasis on pure obstructionism in Washington. "We used to hear a sort of equal-opportunity anti-Washington, anti-partisan line from voters in our focus groups," she said. "Increasingly, they're shifting that blame to Republicans for just saying no and refusing to compromise."

 

[Sean Renaud]

I hesitate to pin really much of anything to a single poll but this is interesting information. I assume at the moment that there aren't other polls yet to back this?

 

[KingOrfeo]

I hesitate to pin really much of anything to a single poll but this is interesting information. I assume at the moment that there aren't other polls yet to back this?

No, but:

Greenberg is a Democratic pollster, to be sure. But his work is widely respected on both sides of the aisle. Republican pollster Whit Ayres didn't question the idea that seniors are souring on the GOP. "I don't think any Republican pollster who's looking at the numbers is sanguine about the state of the Republican brand at this point," he said. "You are going to see the impact of the damaged brand in every demographic group."

 

[neci]

A: they are a bunch of old hippies.

 

[BotanyBoy]

LOL....GOP is fucked b/c they just can't allow people to define their own marriage, just couldn't let R v Wade go, too busy worrying about who is fucking who to pass or even propose anything of value...lol morons.

Petty and STUPID social shit only your religion backs up....Great reasons to sink a political party!!

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

LOL....GOP is fucked b/c they just can't allow people to define their own marriage, just couldn't let R v Wade go, too busy worrying about who is fucking who to pass or even propose anything of value...lol morons.

Petty and STUPID social shit only your religion backs up....Great reasons to sink a political party!!

On the other hand, many of those in their most vulnerable years may feel the same as when Tony Soprano shows up to make you an offer...

Do they want to be targeted the way the Tea Partiers are if they vote Republican? Are they vulnerable to the rhetoric of fear? Have they become so propagandized that they fear that the next sequestration will be aimed at them so that the best protection that they can buy is to deliver their votes to the machine?

Are they just hoping to make it to death in a collapsing system and the hell with the children; they voted for big government in their youth and now they want what they voted for, no matter how unsustainable in the long run?

As some one alluded to above did they go from daisy-field dreams of utopia to a reality where they fear the daisies on their graves because utopia never arrived?

 

[richard_daily]

On the other hand, many of those in their most vulnerable years may feel the same as when Tony Soprano shows up to make you an offer...

Do they want to be targeted the way the Tea Partiers are if they vote Republican? Are they vulnerable to the rhetoric of fear? Have they become so propagandized that they fear that the next sequestration will be aimed at them so that the best protection that they can buy is to deliver their votes to the machine?

Are they just hoping to make it to death in a collapsing system and the hell with the children; they voted for big government in their youth and now they want what they voted for, no matter how unsustainable in the long run?

As some one alluded to above did they go from daisy-field dreams of utopia to a reality where they fear the daisies on their graves because utopia never arrived?

The tea party is the republican party, mister "I'm not a republican".

 

[Recidiva]

Obvious answer would be...they are dying and they have a crop of new elderly with new ideals.

Sort of like why there aren't that many people who still rant about whatever ethnic group they were at war with outside of living memory.

 

[KRCummings]

Old people see what the party is doing to themselves just like everyone else does. They want conservative not the self destructive stupid that the GOP has been lately.
Might be interesting to see what happens in the next few years. Maybe a real third party instead of just the wannabes we usually get. Certainly the Tea Party has a shot, maybe something else that comes from the mountain of disappointment that the GOP is now.

 

[BotanyBoy]

Do they want to be targeted the way the Tea Partiers are if they vote Republican?

Targeted for WHAT?

And show me Tea Party members that don't vote REPOHZ every single time. They won't even vote conservative...they fucking hate conservatism.

Are they vulnerable to the rhetoric of fear?

You mean like OBAMHAZ DEAF PANNELS THAT URR CUMMIN TA GET YA??? MARIJUANA WILL KILL YOU IN 2 PUFFS!!! GAYZ ARE DESTROYING AMERICA!!! OHH!!! Dude I hear more fearmongering in 5 min of FOX than I do in a decade of LW blather from whiny bitches like the Seans.

Have they become so propagandized that they fear that the next sequestration will be aimed at them so that the best protection that they can buy is to deliver their votes to the machine?

Propaganda has nothing to do with it, the REPOHZ want to take it away flat out and spend it on more bombs, the DUMBZ use it to take them hostage and get what they want out of it, mo money.

Both teams are evil as all fuck....but you will just chant tea party swearing your right no matter WHAT, lock step as fuck. Hell you and the rest of the tea party/GOP clowns tried to elect a LIBURUHAL to office.

And every one of you lock step, mindless lemming fucking morons, thought he was a conservative....HAHAHAHAHAHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!

Most of you even tried to argue it HHHAAAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHA when he was demonstrably further left than Obummer. Face it...most of the GOP/TP/RW...is so fucking stupid they wouldn't know a conservative if it bit them in the god damn face.

Are they just hoping to make it to death in a collapsing system and the hell with the children; they voted for big government in their youth and now they want what they voted for, no matter how unsustainable in the long run?

OH yea cuz the GOP/tea party/RW in general done a real bang up job of not spending money it didn't have and building a better tomorrow for the kids.....

You can't possibly be that fucking stupid.....wait....it is the interwebs, prob are.

 

[RobDownSouth]

Obvious answer would be...they are dying and they have a crop of new elderly with new ideals.

aaaaaand we're done in one sentence.

 

[Recidiva]

aaaaaand we're done in one sentence.

So all the GOP needs to do is fix death.

All political parties are excellent at solving difficult issues. I'm sure they're on it.

 

[RobDownSouth]

So all the GOP needs to do is fix death.

All political parties are excellent at solving difficult issues. I'm sure they're on it.

They're working on it. It's the prime reason the GOP is so virulently anti-abortion: More white women get them (36%). 30% are black, 25% are Hispanic and 9% are women of other races.

More white babbies = more political power.

 

[Killswitch]

They're working on it. It's the prime reason the GOP is so virulently anti-abortion: More white women get them (36%). 30% are black, 25% are Hispanic and 9% are women of other races.

More white babbies = more political power.

But in ten years whites will be a minority. Thats the reason they are against any immigration bills.

They see the writing on the wall, you have to give them that. They just can't adapt the new demographic with their shitty old school antique ideals.

It's the way it should be. Politics is about ideals, and you shouldn't change them willy nilly.

 

[JAMESBJOHNSON]

Whites will never be a minority. It wont happen for one simple reason: Non-whites are fucking animals who know how to fuck, how to kill monkeys, and how to use their kids as bait to attract lions and tigers and bears. And whites provide better entertainment than non-white basketball players and tap-dancers.

 

[RobDownSouth]

But in ten years whites will be a minority. Thats the reason they are against any immigration bills.

They see the writing on the wall, you have to give them that. They just can't adapt the new demographic with their shitty old school antique ideals.

It's the way it should be. Politics is about ideals, and you shouldn't change them willy nilly.

The Republicans are rapidly becoming a "legacy party" (see also: whigs).

They've basically lost the national debate, and as more western states turn Democratic the Republicans continue to devolve into little more than a super-regional party, based in the Bible Belt.

Gerrymandering has helped slow down their inevitable decline, but their underlying extremist philosophy will eventually kill their party.

 

[RobDownSouth]

Whites will never be a minority. It wont happen for one simple reason: Non-whites are fucking animals who know how to fuck, how to kill monkeys, and how to use their kids as bait to attract lions and tigers and bears. And whites provide better entertainment than non-white basketball players and tap-dancers.

^^^ Exhibit A: Denial

 

[Liar]

Obvious answer would be...they are dying and they have a crop of new elderly with new ideals.

This.

Also, old people tend to be conservative. The present day GOP, at least the parts that get all the headlines, is reactionary. Grandpa knocked on doors for Ike and was a loyal Reaganite. He don't like young Randian whippersnappers who don't know shit about shit anymore than he likes leftie hippie whippersnappers who don't know shit about shit. But the Democrats at least don't let their whippersnappers write economic policy and run for VP.

 

[Recidiva]

This.

Also, old people tend to be conservative. The present day GOP, at least the parts that get all the headlines, is reactionary. Grandpa knocked on doors for Ike and was a loyal Reaganite. He don't like young Randian whippersnappers who don't know shit about shit anymore than he likes leftie hippie whippersnappers who don't know shit about shit. But the Democrats at least don't let their whippersnappers write economic policy and run for VP.

They are conservative, but the goalposts move throughout time. You're going to have to find the new outrage, innovate the hate.

 

[Killswitch]

When Fox is bumping Hannity off his prime time slot for Megyn Kelly and he is being dumped by 40 Cumulus stations for his afternoon radio show.....you know they see whats coming.

From a dollars and cents perspective.

It will take a while for the rest of the money to catch up.

 

[KRCummings]

This.

Also, old people tend to be conservative. The present day GOP, at least the parts that get all the headlines, is reactionary. Grandpa knocked on doors for Ike and was a loyal Reaganite. He don't like young Randian whippersnappers who don't know shit about shit anymore than he likes leftie hippie whippersnappers who don't know shit about shit. But the Democrats at least don't let their whippersnappers write economic policy and run for VP.

This is kinda what I'm thinking, they're conservative and the GOP just isn't anymore. At least not as much as conservative people want.
People do tend to get more conservative as they age and that has helped the GOP stay in power for as long as they have but they've leaned left a little too far and now it's hurting them.

 

[Killswitch]

This is kinda what I'm thinking, they're conservative and the GOP just isn't anymore. At least not as much as conservative people want.
People do tend to get more conservative as they age and that has helped the GOP stay in power for as long as they have but they've leaned left a little too far and now it's hurting them.

Ask Chris Christie if the GOP is conservative anymore.

 

[Wide_eyed_Indulgence]

LOL....GOP is fucked b/c they just can't allow people to define their own marriage, just couldn't let R v Wade go, too busy worrying about who is fucking who to pass or even propose anything of value...lol morons.

Petty and STUPID social shit only your religion backs up....Great reasons to sink a political party!!

Well said, BB (although maybe I could have said with a little less vitriol). Nevertheless, I agree.

 

[RobDownSouth]

This is kinda what I'm thinking, they're conservative and the GOP just isn't anymore. At least not as much as conservative people want.
People do tend to get more conservative as they age and that has helped the GOP stay in power for as long as they have but they've leaned left a little too far and now it's hurting them.

It's not so much that "old people are conservative", imho, as much as they are resistant to change.

The rate of change seems to be accelerating with the advent of the internet, and the "old world" is passing these seniors by. They want the simplicity of their youth, regardless of how much it never really existed in the first place. Like I'm fond of saying, "Leave it to Beaver" is not a documentary.

The world is a complex place.

 

[KRCummings]

It's not so much that "old people are conservative", imho, as much as they are resistant to change.

The rate of change seems to be accelerating with the advent of the internet, and the "old world" is passing these seniors by. They want the simplicity of their youth, regardless of how much it never really existed in the first place. Like I'm fond of saying, "Leave it to Beaver" is not a documentary.

The world is a complex place.

This was going on long before things like the internet or tech age. Look at the hippies to see how ultra liberals eventually take the road that forks to the right. Not all but most.
Conservatism may change definition slightly over time to include more left leaning policies but it's still the direction people tend to go as they age.