Nathan_Brazil
Literotica Guru
- Joined
- Sep 12, 2015
- Posts
- 613
The Republicans:
The party has three distinct wings. (+crossover)
1. Religious Right.
2. The wealthy.
3. Tea Party/Libertarian wing.
To win, you must lock up one flank, then get support from others. So...
1. Ben Carson beats Santorum, Huckabee, and Jindall.
2. Rubio/Christie/Pataki/Bush/Fiorina/Graham/Kasich
3. Trump/Paul/Cruz.
The early primaries are there to winnow the field. Carson has already won group 1. Field 2 looks to be a Bush/Rubio fight. The others look like road kill. Trump won group 3. Could implode and give it to Cruz...
Smart money says that after 2 rounds, we will be down to Carson, Trump, and Rubio/Bush.
I'm buying Rubio.
Now...which of the three appeal to the other cliques?
The assumption has always been that Bush ultimately prevails. If Rubio passes Bush, can Rubio unify?
At this point, I think he is the ONLY Republican who could actually win. Demographers say GOP needs 47% Hispanic vote to win.
Hispanics hate Trump, not crazy about Carson.
Trump will win if it stays mixed. Tea Party outvotes Religious Right. Rubio has to manage 2nd place in the other cliques to win.
My handicapping: 60% Trump, 20% Rubio, 15% Bush, 4% Carson, 1% Field.
The party has three distinct wings. (+crossover)
1. Religious Right.
2. The wealthy.
3. Tea Party/Libertarian wing.
To win, you must lock up one flank, then get support from others. So...
1. Ben Carson beats Santorum, Huckabee, and Jindall.
2. Rubio/Christie/Pataki/Bush/Fiorina/Graham/Kasich
3. Trump/Paul/Cruz.
The early primaries are there to winnow the field. Carson has already won group 1. Field 2 looks to be a Bush/Rubio fight. The others look like road kill. Trump won group 3. Could implode and give it to Cruz...
Smart money says that after 2 rounds, we will be down to Carson, Trump, and Rubio/Bush.
I'm buying Rubio.
Now...which of the three appeal to the other cliques?
The assumption has always been that Bush ultimately prevails. If Rubio passes Bush, can Rubio unify?
At this point, I think he is the ONLY Republican who could actually win. Demographers say GOP needs 47% Hispanic vote to win.
Hispanics hate Trump, not crazy about Carson.
Trump will win if it stays mixed. Tea Party outvotes Religious Right. Rubio has to manage 2nd place in the other cliques to win.
My handicapping: 60% Trump, 20% Rubio, 15% Bush, 4% Carson, 1% Field.