What If The Models Are wrong?

[hogjack]

SCOREBOARD

0 Models
6 Common Sense
FINAL

 

[SpeareChucker]

Go to NRO and read today's Victor Davis Hanson.


I already posted some of it.

Let me recapitulate some of what I have said for some time now;
models work when you can identify and account for all of the variables.
Any and all models based upon biological phenomenon cannot ever be
correct over any length of time because you cannot imitate Harry Seldon,
isolating and factoring in all of the variables, so a model cannot be created.
If, somehow, you serendipitously managed to create such a model, but could not
recreate original conditions, then even if the model was 100% correct,
it would shortly go off the rails. It's what chaotic systems do.
For example, take the Mandelbrot se; it's just a mapping
of how quickly bifurcations scream off into infinity...

 

[Liar]

By default then, this advice is wrong.

As is this conclusion.

 

[trysail]

Did somebody mention models and "GIGO":



https://climatism.files.wordpress.com/2019/11/img_2618.jpg?w=590


​

 

[Rightguide]

That says there's 15k hospitalized in NYC but only 22k nationwide. Do you honestly believe there are only 7 thousand people outside of NYC hospitalized with the virus? You're dumb but you're not that dumb.

So you say the tracking group is wrong, so show us the true number.

 

[hogjack]

As is this conclusion.

Wrong. The conclusion is incorrect but the alternative conclusion is also flawed.

 

[Bas_van_Fraassen]

Did somebody mention models and "GIGO":



https://climatism.files.wordpress.com/2019/11/img_2618.jpg?w=590


​

From pretty, multicolored graphs to pictures. This does seem to be about your intellectual speed, trybigot.

 

[Biggs_Darklighter]

So you say the tracking group is wrong, so show us the true number.

I didn't say they were wrong. I say your article is wrong.

https://***************/spreadsheet...GdNC0ypEU9NbngS8mxea55JuCFuua1MUeOj5/pubhtml#

There's the groups numbers. They don't match what you linked in the OP.

 

[RichardBentwood]

Is there a tax I can pay to stop the Chinese virus, or does that only work for climate change?

 

[SpeareChucker]

Is there a tax I can pay to stop the Chinese virus, or does that only work for climate change?

Good one.



The tax bill is in the mail...

 

[Bas_van_Fraassen]

Go to NRO and read today's Victor Davis Hanson.


I already posted some of it.

Let me recapitulate some of what I have said for some time now;
models work when you can identify and account for all of the variables.
Any and all models based upon biological phenomenon cannot ever be
correct over any length of time because you cannot imitate Harry Seldon,
isolating and factoring in all of the variables, so a model cannot be created.
If, somehow, you serendipitously managed to create such a model, but could not
recreate original conditions, then even if the model was 100% correct,
it would shortly go off the rails. It's what chaotic systems do.
For example, take the Mandelbrot se; it's just a mapping
of how quickly bifurcations scream off into infinity...

Not surprised your understanding of the Mandelbrot set is this shallow. Really shameful, coming from an alleged mathematician.

 

[bellisarius]

Is there a tax I can pay to stop the Chinese virus, or does that only work for climate change?

A generous contribution to the Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts allegedly works.

 

[SpeareChucker]

*chuckle*

 

[Rightguide]

I didn't say they were wrong. I say your article is wrong.

https://***************/spreadsheet...GdNC0ypEU9NbngS8mxea55JuCFuua1MUeOj5/pubhtml#

There's the groups numbers. They don't match what you linked in the OP.

That was Saturday. When you open the "current" tab it's now 28,000 plus.

 

[Rightguide]

A generous contribution to the Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts allegedly works.

Yes, when you want to cut jobs at the Center you give them a contribution.

 

[SpeareChucker]

Good tuba players are expensive...

 

[Klinkster]

Good tuba players are expensive...

But apparently expendable......

 

[DeluxAuto]

Any proof that the models are wrong?

 

[OldJourno]

Are the models wrong? Well, we've been told to get ready for the worst week of our lives. The death count in the U.S. is supposed to skyrocket.
It hasn't so far.

 

[hogjack]

Any proof that the models are wrong?

Several unnamed sources on Capital Hill have confirmed that all the models are way off. Embarrassing miscalculations.

 

[Lancecastor19]

Joe Biden's cool 60's catchphrase "Oh come on man!" applies here, I think.

I think everyone from scientists to politicians to social scientist extraordinaire Peter Navarro are purposefully using whichever stats create the most social compliance and/or fear.

"It's going to cost $20,000 to renovate your kitchen."

Bill comes in at $17,900...you're the Best Contractor, Ever.

 

[DeluxAuto]

Are the models wrong? Well, we've been told to get ready for the worst week of our lives. The death count in the U.S. is supposed to skyrocket.
It hasn't so far.

Who said that, Nazi boi?

 

[SpeareChucker]

Any proof that the models are wrong?

Yes.
Follow the news much?

Even the modelers are saying they're modifying them.

 

[SpeareChucker]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...ts-estimates-downward-not-every-model-agrees/

 

[Rightguide]

Any proof that the models are wrong?

Read the article.