What happened to all of the doom and gloom economic threads?

[unregistered]

 

[landslider2000]

If you apply the long-term average civilian labor force participation rate of 65.8%, you get an unemployment rate way above what was reported Friday.

Unemployment is difficult to measure, but continuing to drop the participation rate would lead to "better" numbers, but the question is whether it reflects reality.

 

[coastal-boy]

If you need help interpreting the graph, why not ask instead of acting stupid? The title of the article sums it up nicely...the Dow closed on Friday at a 4 year high...that is higher than it was 6 months before it crashed in 2008 under GW. The Nasdaq closed at an 11 year high.

Seriously, let's talk the Dow and the Dow only just to keep it simple and direct. How are these "numbers...books...cooked?"

Yeah sure dunce, only you understand right? Look here:

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000071275

Let me dumb it way down for you Vette...Here is my quote above

I am talking about the DOW (but if you want to talk Nasdaq...that's cool too).

I am not talking unemployment numbers...just the Dow. So again, how are these numbers "cooked?"

 

[coastal-boy]

Why are stocks important you ask?

Approximately 40% of all investment income is due to stocks and mutual funds. Of course...since Vette is such a guru, I'm confident he knew that already.

 

[benschup]

Let me dumb it way down for you Vette...Here is my quote above

I am talking about the DOW (but if you want to talk Nasdaq...that's cool too).

I am not talking unemployment numbers...just the Dow. So again, how are these numbers "cooked?"

I,m sure all the guys and gals not working are about as happy as a pig in shit about the market. Just wondering.

 

[coastal-boy]

I,m sure all the guys and gals not working are about as happy as a pig in shit about the market. Just wondering.

let me dumb it even further...I ' m n o t t a l k in g u n e m p l o y m e n t.

Wonder why no one is debating my point?

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

If by lathered up you mean constantly pointing out the gradual recovery that's been all around you for the last three years. Then yeah. Lathered..

Reality never seems to make a dent in your rhetoric.. Doom is always just around the corner.. or that corner.. or maybe the next.. OMG! maybe that one!
It's always...
[voice=Annie]
"Tomorrow! Tomorrow! We love ya! Tomorrow! You're always a day away!"
[/voice]
Sort of like the crippling inflation / deflation you and yours have been predicting since this thread began. Which is it this week by the way, Inflation or Deflation?

It must be deflation since 2011 inflation was only 3.16%, compared to:
1.64% for 2010
-0.34% for 2009
3.85% for 2008
2.85% for 2007
3.24% for 2006
3.39% for 2005
2.68% for 2004
2.27% for 2003
1.59% for 2002
2.83% for 2001
3.38% for 2000

So no huge increases from the "Good old days". You need a new mantra, because "Obama is killing the economy" just makes you look like a fool.. Well, more of one.

Gradual is, in this case, an embellishment.

Again, you lie about what I have predicted.

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

Remember 2007? Glory days, right? Everything was booming, and nothing was booming quite as much as real estate — especially commercial real estate. Malls, hotels, warehouses, industrial parks: Everything was being built, and everything was being financed on ridiculously generous terms. Remember interest-only loans? Good times.

But commercial real estate is different from residential in one important way: Your standard residential mortgage goes 20 to 30 years. Your standard commercial loan goes for five years, at the end of which you either make a big balloon payment (what it is that balloons remind me of?) or you refinance, the idea being that five years is long enough to get your project built or developed, to secure tenants and leases, get your cash flow flowing, etc. Five years: Seems like it was only yesterday. By my always-suspect English-major math, that means that a whole bunch of commercial mortgages written at that poisonous sweet spot when prices were highest but lending standards were lowest are coming due . . . oh, any minute now.

In New York City alone, there’s about $70 billion worth of commercial mortgages — some of which have been sold off as mortgage-backed securities, naturally — coming due this year. The national total is more than $150 billion, or a bit more than 1 percent of U.S. GDP. That’s going to be a little awkward: The value of U.S. commercial properties has declined by an average of 45.7 percent since their all-time high in 2007, according to Real Capital Analytics. Those 2007 vintage loans weren’t exactly bulletproof: Typical terms included a 20 percent down payment and a five-year payment schedule that required little more than interest payments. An $80 million mortgage on a $100 million property is not so bad, but an $80 million mortgage on what is now a $60 million property is a problem. More than half of the 2007-vintage loans are expected to have trouble refinancing, and maybe well more than half.

http://www.nationalreview.com/blogs/print/290140

 

[patrick1]

Yeah sure dunce, only you understand right? Look here:

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000071275

As I've pointed out in another thread, there is no sudden change in the number of US people available for employment of 1.2 million. This is a statistical adjustment for scientific reasons because the base figures have been shifted from 2000 to 2010 Census data. The speaker in this video aknowledges this, in a very unclear way, at the end of his spiel, having implied throughout that the 1.2 million figure is meaningful when it isn't. Details are on the bls website (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm) here:

<< The adjustment increased the estimated size of the civilian
noninstitutional population in December by 1,510,000, the civilian
labor force by 258,000, employment by 216,000, unemployment by 42,000,
and persons not in the labor force by 1,252,000. Although the total
unemployment rate was unaffected, the labor force participation rate
and the employment-population ratio were each reduced by 0.3
percentage point. This was because the population increase was
primarily among persons 55 and older and, to a lesser degree, persons
16 to 24 years of age. Both these age groups have lower levels of
labor force participation than the general population.

Data users are cautioned that these annual population adjustments
affect the comparability of household data series over time.>>

Patrick

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

Yes, but the overall participation rate continues to decline.
(I provided links to that set of numbers.)

The other relevant point is the ol' shoe on the other foot phenomena, if this were a Republican, there would be partisan Democrat howls...

We, in the Western World are suffering from inconsistent government.

The want of confidence in the public councils damps every useful undertaking, the success and profit of which may depend on a continuance of existing arrangements. What prudent merchant will hazard his fortunes in any new branch of commerce when he knows not but that his plans may be rendered unlawful before they can be executed? What farmer or manufacturer will lay himself out for the encouragement given to any particular cultivation or establishment, when he can have no assurance that his preparatory labors and advances will not render him a victim to an inconstant government?
Madison, Federalist 62.

 

[RightField]

So, our population increases by millions in the 10 years between 2000 and 2010 and they tell you that the "adjusted" decrease in workforce population of 1.2 million (that gives them a positive trend in unemployment figures critical for democrat reelection) is based on the census.

As Jeff Foxworthy would say "You might be a Democrat if you believe...."

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

Obama better stake out the border and keep those tech Jobs here...




http://pjmedia.com/blog/apple-branches-out-to-high-tech-israel/?singlepage=true

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

One of the little known phenomena of Israel’s permanent need for almost universal conscription is the creative use to which the brightest and best kids are put: a special program in the army, known as “Talpiot,” takes a select few from each year’s intake and grooms them in technical sciences. This elite group has gone on to produce many of Israel’s best-known technical successes. In effect, the three or more years in the army are put to extraordinary use. It’s almost incalculable what contribution this IDF program has made to Israel’s economy. Apple will tap into this just by being in Israel.

Not to mention the new international study that lists Israel as the second-most educated country in the world.

In addition, after the USSR’s collapse, Israel absorbed one million new immigrants in around ten years, people with a disproportionately high amount of advanced training. This was also a source of new scientific and engineering talent.

Barriers to doing business in Israel are not high. I own small companies in both the United States and Israel. I no longer employ anyone directly in the United States, and for that I am grateful: the burden of having staff there has become astonishing.

Israeli employment law, while certainly not a charter for worker exploitation, is nevertheless more attractive. Working and social conditions are comparable with America. It can be said that Israelis enjoy better government services, such as early child care and health provision, than those in the United States. There is also no direct need for employers to spend money on health plans, since their employees are covered by income taxes and “national insurance.”

Again, from my personal small business experience, the Israeli tax system is a lot easier to deal with than the muddle of local, state, and federal taxes that I have to pay an accountant in New York to file for me. My little company in New York, with no employees, generates a level of accounting work that dwarfs my 15-person importing company in Israel. I’m sure at the scale of an Intel or an Apple things become much more complex, but the comparison is probably valid.

The real question: why did it take Apple so long? One suspected cause was the political leanings of Steve Jobs’ wife: firmly in the left-leaning liberal and pro-Palestinian camps. Apple has neglected Israel as a market for its computers for years despite Israel leading the world in per-capita computer use. Apple’s market share in personal computers is much lower in Israel than in the United States or even Europe, and support for Hebrew is not as comprehensive as it is on Windows.

So now Apple, Microsoft, Intel, and Google are all working and developing new products in Israel. Ironically, that means that the “boycott Israel” crowd has to use computers and software developed in Israel to argue that the country is a terrible place that should be wiped out.

That's some seriously funny shit.

What is Obama's counter? Burning Volts*, Solyndra and Fiskar.

 

[mercury14]

Oh no, good economic news while the Democrats are in power! That doesn't fit our lying little right wing narrative at all! Let's hurry up and repackage this piece of wonderful economic news as being somehow bad news!

What's that? The stock market jumped on the report? Well what do investors really know about the economy? They're all a bunch of know-nothing fuckups. Nobody in the private sector knows how to analyze economic reports.

The only people qualified to read them are Republicans. Republicans are smart. They sold out months ago when the market was at 10k and there was a certain double dip. None of this staying in the market while it puts on 3000 points bullshit.

 

[mercury14]

I wonder what Merc, Throb and U_D will say if January slumps?

Republican obstruction?

How did January turn out?

 

[Beco]

Oh no, good economic news while the Democrats are in power! That doesn't fit our lying little right wing narrative at all! Let's hurry up and repackage this piece of wonderful economic news as being somehow bad news!

What's that? The stock market jumped on the report? Well what do investors really know about the economy? They're all a bunch of know-nothing fuckups. Nobody in the private sector knows how to analyze economic reports.

The only people qualified to read them are Republicans. Republicans are smart. They sold out months ago when the market was at 10k and there was a certain double dip. None of this staying in the market while it puts on 3000 points bullshit.

If you call, cooking the books, good news...............yeah, its out there. Romney should delve into those unemployment numbers a little better, he's missing the boat.

 

[mercury14]

If you call, cooking the books, good news...............yeah, its out there. Romney should delve into those unemployment numbers a little better, he's missing the boat.

The books are written by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in a transparent fashion. Wall Street then looks at the report and does it's own analysis.

Are you going on record saying that the private economic sector's extremely positive reaction to this report is completely wrong, and that only the Republican anti-Obama assessment is correct? Because GOP election year blather is the best place to get valid, unbiased information?

 

[Beco]

The books are written by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in a transparent fashion. Wall Street then looks at the report and does it's own analysis.

Are you going on record saying that the private economic sector's extremely positive reaction to this report is completely wrong, and that only the Republican anti-Obama assessment is correct? Because GOP election year blather is the best place to get valid, unbiased information?

The BLS doesnt represent reality. Romney needs to stress that. 1.2 million people exited the labor force in one month. The real number is probably closer to 9% unemployment. While Im happy things appear to be getting a little better on the jobs front and I also agree with, lets say its good, maybe it will get better, housing starts are modest and are true indicators that mean we are heading out of this...Businesses are not restocking their shelves as Obama would like you to believe.

 

[RobDownSouth]

I get a kick reading Faneros' and L'il Andy's newly discovered concern over the accuracy of government statistical measurements.

 

[mercury14]

The BLS doesnt represent reality.

It does to Wall Street.

There's a reason the private sector gets its data from sources such as the BLS and not from GOP election year propaganda. Can you tell us what that reason is?

 

[Beco]

It does to Wall Street.

There's a reason the private sector gets its data from sources such as the BLS and not from GOP propaganda. Can you tell us what that reason is?

Wallstreet whores don't count....they would sell their mothers to make a profit...

 

[mercury14]

Wallstreet whores don't count....they would sell their mothers to make a profit...

So let me get this straight.

1) The private sector's assessment of the economy is bunk
2) The public sector's assessment of the economy is bunk
3) Republican propaganda is reliable, valid, and objective economic analysis.


Am I following you here?

 

[mercury14]

We've seen U_D and Throb all lathered up over the recovery several times in the past three years...



... WASSIST WEBUBWICCANS!

Please update us on these following predictions you have made.

1) Hyperinflation is just around the corner
2) Deflation is just around the corner
3) Stagflation is just around the corner
4) Hahaha! The stock market is at 8,000 points? It's just a bubble!
5) Hahaha! The stock market is at 9,000 points? It's just a bubble!
6) Hahaha! The stock market is at 10,000 points? It's just a bubble!
7) Hahaha! The stock market is at 11,00 points? It's just a bubble!
8) Hahaha! The stock market is at 12,000 points? It's just a bubble!
9) Hahaha! The stock market is almost at 13,000 points? It's just a bubble!
10) A double dip recession is just around the corner (circa 2010)
11) A double dip recession is just around the corner (circa 2011)


Funny. But even though you've been playing damn near every space on the roulette table for the past three years you still can't get one right.

 

[coastal-boy]

So let me get this straight.

1) The private sector's assessment of the economy is bunk
2) The public sector's assessment of the economy is bunk
3) Republican propaganda is reliable, valid, and objective economic analysis.


Am I following you here?

No matter what the "number" is, the trends are still the same. Be it Dow, Nasdaq, S&P, mutual funds, company confidence, company profit, fuck...even unemployment...EVERYTHING is heading in the right direction. Amazing.

 

[RobDownSouth]

No matter what the "number" is, the trends are still the same. Be it Dow, Nasdaq, S&P, mutual funds, company confidence, company profit, fuck...even unemployment...EVERYTHING is heading in the right direction. Amazing.

<AJ Mode>
but...but....what about Pervuian Navy enlistments? Down 12%!! Greek cinnamon exports are down almost 30%!! Tourism in Tanzania is off 45%!

Alinsky! Soros! TELEPROMPTERS!
</AJ Mode>