What happened to all of the doom and gloom economic threads?

[koalabear]

Much of the construction activity and new permit volume was for multifamily housing, as the heavy pace of foreclosures sends displaced households looking for homes to rent. Rental vacancy rates have been falling and rental prices rising, spurring investors to break ground on more multifamily units.

Government housing, cheer on.

 

[Beco]

Much of the construction activity and new permit volume was for multifamily housing, as the heavy pace of foreclosures sends displaced households looking for homes to rent. Rental vacancy rates have been falling and rental prices rising, spurring investors to break ground on more multifamily units.

Government housing, cheer on.

Its the hottest segment of RE at the moment, thats true. Here, its all rental highrise projects.

 

[RobDownSouth]

Quoting Rob, and seeing your characterization, it occurred to me this image somebody titled "Moobs On The Left" just might send him into the closet for a little dick burning time, hoping all can use the moment to relax and have a cup of coffee:

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2011/12/20/article-0-0F3AB2AF00000578-362_468x286.jpg

There ya go, Vetty, we knew you could do it! Misdirection and personal attack! Gotta draw attention away from positive economic news!
Say it with me, Vetteman! Repeat the Glibertarian Prime Directive applies: "NO GOOD ECONOMIC NEWS DURING THE NIGGAR'S PRESIDENCY"

 

[Beco]

Barney Frank has nice titties!

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

OH HAPPY DAY!

JOY TO THE WORLD! OUR SAVIOR AND MESSIAH HAS JUST WON REELECTION!



DOW crosses 12K! We've turned the corner...

*sniff* *sniff* on THROB you were right, OMG! OMG! it's the winter of our recovery, made glorious summer by this sun of Dunham and Obama!

QUICK! Everyone! Rush into the breech, invest, GET IN ON THE BOTTOM FLOOR!

ALICE, you're going to the MOON!


















What was the volume on such a wild swing?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/45741694

 

[unregistered]

 

[RobDownSouth]

AJ, I realize that Glibertarians such as yourself never look to the future any further than their next bowel movement, but you have to admit that the market is in for an interesting ride in 2013.

As your article stated, a great number of investors fled equity during the mini-slide in August, with the benefit of hindsight that was exactly the wrong thing to do, according to CNBC. Of course, YOU didn't flee equities, because as you're fond of telling us, you NEVER make a bad investment decision and you've got a TEN YEAR HOT STREAK of always being able to "time" the market.

Right now there is a huge amount of money in America basically parked in low-yield money market accounts, which optimists such as myself tend to think of as investors taking a breather after the "wild ride" of 2011 (conversely, doom-n-gloomers such as yourself might take that as a vote of no-confidence in the stock market).

Care to nut up and hazard a prediction for the DJIA at the end of December 2012?

I'll predict something between 12,500 and 13,000.

Vetteman and Koalabear, here's your chance to be brave and make a prediction too!

 

[JohnnySavage]

AJ, I realize that Glibertarians such as yourself never look to the future any further than their next bowel movement, but you have to admit that the market is in for an interesting ride in 2013.

As your article stated, a great number of investors fled equity during the mini-slide in August, with the benefit of hindsight that was exactly the wrong thing to do, according to CNBC. Of course, YOU didn't flee equities, because as you're fond of telling us, you NEVER make a bad investment decision and you've got a TEN YEAR HOT STREAK of always being able to "time" the market.

Right now there is a huge amount of money in America basically parked in low-yield money market accounts, which optimists such as myself tend to think of as investors taking a breather after the "wild ride" of 2012 (conversely, doom-n-gloomers such as yourself might take that as a vote of no-confidence in the stock market).

Care to nut up and hazard a prediction for the DJIA at the end of December 2013?

I'll predict something between 12,500 and 13,000.

Vetteman and Koalabear, here's your chance to be brave and make a prediction too!

A lot of money went into bonds. That's why the government had no problem paying a paltry 2-4%. If equities stabilize, the debt bubble is going to explode as investors demand a higher return on US securities.

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

Throb, can't go a day without the hate?

I can make two predictions based on the outcome of the election.



The only money we put into the market is in soap, the Pacific Rim, and only in the amount that benefits us tax-wise.

Bowel movement? That the best you got? I predicted a horizontal, stagnant economy while you and your fellows bought into the 8% unemployment and summer of recovery with not a day passing that you could not find sure proof that the economy was improving.

If I were you, I'd keep an eye on Obama, Europe and China before I started gazing into the crystal eight-ball...

 

[RobDownSouth]

A lot of money went into bonds. That's why the government had no problem paying a paltry 2-4%. If equities stabilize, the debt bubble is going to explode as investors demand a higher return on US securities.

That's certainly a valid argument. Truthfully, I haven't kept up with the bond market, but my cursory understanding is that it has been remarkably stable over the past few years and that the Chinese have a vested interest in keeping it that way to maximize their exports to the United States. Whether this is sustainable in the long term is open to debate.

I'll go out on a limb and predict that long term bond interest rates will remain essentially unchanged through 2012.

 

[JohnnySavage]

That's certainly a valid argument. Truthfully, I haven't kept up with the bond market, but my cursory understanding is that it has been remarkably stable over the past few years and that the Chinese have a vested interest in keeping it that way to maximize their exports to the United States. Whether this is sustainable in the long term is open to debate.

I'll go out on a limb and predict that long term bond interest rates will remain essentially unchanged through 2012.

Long term rates aren't the problem. Most of the US debt is financed with short-term obligations. When those obligations come due, they have to be refinanced at current market rates.

 

[RobDownSouth]

Throb, can't go a day without the hate?

I can make two predictions based on the outcome of the election.



The only money we put into the market is in soap, the Pacific Rim, and only in the amount that benefits us tax-wise.

Bowel movement? That the best you got? I predicted a horizontal, stagnant economy while you and your fellows bought into the 8% unemployment and summer of recovery with not a day passing that you could not find sure proof that the economy was improving.

If I were you, I'd keep an eye on Obama, Europe and China before I started gazing into the crystal eight-ball...

Awww c'mon AJ, it's just for fun.

Tell us 'zactly where you think the market will be on Dec 31, 2012.

Don't be a pusscake.

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

What's next? the vaunted tried and true $10.00 bet?




lol

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

Long term rates aren't the problem. Most of the US debt is financed with short-term obligations. When those obligations come due, they have to be refinanced at current market rates.

Now, ☝, this guy, this guy I would pay attention to if he made economic predictions...


But alas, he's not so stupid as to do such a thing.

 

[RobDownSouth]

Long term rates aren't the problem. Most of the US debt is financed with short-term obligations. When those obligations come due, they have to be refinanced at current market rates.

Depends on what you consider to be "short term". I tend to use the old definition from capital gains, i.e. 364 days or less.

Against that standard, I looked up the U.S. Debt as of November 30, 2011 (latest available, in millions)

Treasury Bills (one year) - 1,512,478 (15.31%)
Treasury Notes (two to ten years) - 6,578,958 (66.60%)
Treasury Bonds (> ten years) - 1,050,637 (10.6%)
Other marketable (Fed financing, etc) - 736,243 (7.45%)
Total marketable public debt - 9,878,316 (100%)

 

[RobDownSouth]

What's next? the vaunted tried and true $10.00 bet?
lol

No. I'd never ask you to put your childrens' college fund at risk....

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

Yeah, we know how you feel about people's children.



Do I need to post some more of your greatest hits?

They're about as bad as your predictions.

 

[RobDownSouth]

Now, ☝, this guy, this guy I would pay attention to if he made economic predictions...


But alas, he's not so stupid as to do such a thing.

What's YOUR definition of "short term"? Hmmm?

 

[JohnnySavage]

Depends on what you consider to be "short term". I tend to use the old definition from capital gains, i.e. 364 days or less.

Against that standard, I looked up the U.S. Debt as of November 30, 2011 (latest available, in millions)

Treasury Bills (one year) - 1,512,478 (15.31%)
Treasury Notes (two to ten years) - 6,578,958 (66.60%)
Treasury Bonds (> ten years) - 1,050,637 (10.6%)
Other marketable (Fed financing, etc) - 736,243 (7.45%)
Total marketable public debt - 9,878,316 (100%)

Capital gains is a tax term, which is looking at money from the investor's perspective. From the government's perspective, short term generally means less than 10 years.

If you notice all the budgeting numbers are projected on a 10 year horizon. When 'they' say they are going to cut a trillion dollars in spending, they are talking about over 10 years. Those budget discussions have to take into account the amount of government debt that will have to be refinanced over that 10 year period.

 

[RobDownSouth]

Yeah, we know how you feel about people's children.



Do I need to post some more of your greatest hits?

They're about as bad as your predictions.

I'm enjoying watching you squirm.

You've got 2500+ posts in a thread about doom 'n gloom economics but you lack the stones to go on record with a definitive prediction about the year ahead.

You're the guy who rises from the foxhole after the firing has ceased and bayonets the wounded.

 

[unregistered]

 

[JohnnySavage]

And the projected interests rates during the term borrowing inside the long term window which should in itself have resulted in gaga billions of dollar windfall these past two years...............but of course hasn't.

Italian 10 year bonds are paying 6 3/4.

I think Greece's were over 50% for a while.

Roll the dice!

 

[unregistered]

 

[RobDownSouth]

Capital gains is a tax term, which is looking at money from the investor's perspective. From the government's perspective, short term generally means less than 10 years.

If you notice all the budgeting numbers are projected on a 10 year horizon. When 'they' say they are going to cut a trillion dollars in spending, they are talking about over 10 years. Those budget discussions have to take into account the amount of government debt that will have to be refinanced over that 10 year period.

I think I'll challenge that assertion. My definition of "short term" is not restricted to tax considerations, virtually every investment vehicle I've ever seen has used the "one year or less" standard to define "short term".

An admittedly abbreviated Google search could find no proof pro- or con- to back up the highlighted statement.

This is getting interesting! I'd be interested in reading a definitive answer.

 

[JohnnySavage]

A bond's term, or years to maturity, is usually set when it is issued. Bond maturities can range from one day to 100 years, but the majority of bond maturities range from one to 30 years. Bonds are often referred to as being short-, medium- or long-term. Generally, a bond that matures in one to three years is referred to as a short-term bond. Medium- or intermediate-term bonds are generally those that mature in four to 10 years, and long-term bonds are those with maturities greater than 10 years. The borrower fulfills its debt obligation typically when the bond reaches its maturity date, and the final interest payment and the original sum you loaned (the principal) are paid to you.


http://apps.finra.org/investor_information/smart/bonds/102000.asp