What happened to all of the doom and gloom economic threads?

[Beco]

Crappy week in stocks. Wasn't one of the posters around her, real dick head saying he was waiting for the markets to correct to around 12,400 a week or so ago? I might be losing my mind, he' a real dick and he's always challenging people to make predictions before they happen, not claim they knew what would happen after it already happened. Meh. Probably not. Besides there's always next week, it could continue to plummet and that would make that smug bastard as wrong as everybody else.

big time correction happening here..........wait for the bottom, then buy

 

[Beco]

y Walter Pincus, Updated: Friday, May 18, 8:07 PM

The House approved a bill Friday that would provide $642.5 billion in defense spending for the next fiscal year, despite a veto threat from the White House, which objected to a series of provisions that would limit the president’s authority and challenge administration policies.

The bill, which passed by a vote of 299 to 120, would authorize spending $3.7 billion above the amount sought by President Obama and $8 billion above the level agreed to by Republicans and Democrats in August as part of their budget deal.

 

[TexasWife25]

y Walter Pincus, Updated: Friday, May 18, 8:07 PM

The House approved a bill Friday that would provide $642.5 billion in defense spending for the next fiscal year, despite a veto threat from the White House, which objected to a series of provisions that would limit the president’s authority and challenge administration policies.

The bill, which passed by a vote of 299 to 120, would authorize spending $3.7 billion above the amount sought by President Obama and $8 billion above the level agreed to by Republicans and Democrats in August as part of their budget deal.

I always thought we needed more defense spending.

Psh and who stands by deals they made these days, as long as you cross your fingers when you agree, it doesn't count.

 

[Beco]

I always thought we needed more defense spending.

Psh and who stands by deals they made these days, as long as you cross your fingers when you agree, it doesn't count.

Gotta keep the machine going, I guess...

 

[mercury14]

Crappy week in stocks. Wasn't one of the posters around her, real dick head saying he was waiting for the markets to correct to around 12,400 a week or so ago? I might be losing my mind, he' a real dick and he's always challenging people to make predictions before they happen, not claim they knew what would happen after it already happened. Meh. Probably not. Besides there's always next week, it could continue to plummet and that would make that smug bastard as wrong as everybody else.

Yeah that dick is me. I recently posted that I cashed out over 70k in stock around 13,300 and said the market was going to dip down below 12,400. And I said all that before it happened.

The thing I didn't post was that we cashed out 180k in stock over the next day or so. But the money is going towards a down payment on a house rather than getting back in when the market is low. Gotta buy a car too.

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

big time correction happening here..........wait for the bottom, then buy

That's funny. It was just about three weeks ago that merc and I were having a discussion on the over-valuation of the markets...

 

[Beco]

That's funny. It was just about three weeks ago that merc and I were having a discussion on the over-valuation of the markets...

it had to happen....

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

It was clear, even at the time that the premature celebration over 13K and all those positive indicators was just that...

You did not need a tortoise shell to predict the trajectory of our current economy, yet some people, for purely partisan reason, still continue to believe that Bush's Tarp "saved" us and Obama's stimulus actually stimulated anything other then the unions, the Democrat campaign money laundry.

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

Economists Are Not Historians
By Jerry Shenk, The American Thinker
May 19, 2012

It's past time for some economic myth-busting: the American government is not "starved" for revenues, but it should be. The Internal Revenue Service and the U.S. Treasury collect more taxes annually than any nation in history, but, in each of the three-plus years of the Obama administration, the government has spent well in excess of a trillion dollars more than Treasury receipts. The president and the American left tell us that America must spend more.

They're wrong.

In the 1930s, when economist John Maynard Keynes wrote The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, the governments of most prosperous nations -- and their debts -- were small, certainly when compared to today's government behemoths. At that time, "increasing aggregate demand" using deficit spending was, at best, a plausible response to economic downturns. Today, gigantic, unwieldy governments in Europe and at home -- and their economies -- are overwhelmed by massive debt. The standard Keynesian answer to economic downturns -- increased spending and the expansion of debt -- assumes the willingness of bond markets to finance the increased debt at manageable interest rates. If the markets do not respond, Keynesian policies fail. In fact, because they inevitably involve government interference in markets, Keynesian policies have always failed.

Since the current recession began, despite a huge Keynesian stimulus, unemployment remains extremely high and recovery disappointing.

Dr. Robert Barro, professor of economics at Harvard and a senior fellow at Stanford's Hoover Institution, has concluded that "fiscal deficits have only a short-run expansionary impact on growth and then become negative[.] ... [T]he results from following this policy advice are persistently low economic growth and an exploding ratio of public debt to Gross Domestic Product (GDP)."

History proves two things: 1) that austerity works and 2) that Keynesian economists are not historians.

Since the turn of the last century, there are numerous periods in American and world history during which reductions in government spending refuted the Keynesian model.

You will never hear a Keynesian economist mention the depression of 1920-1921, or accurately explain what brought America out of it. The facts don't fit the Keynesian narrative. President Warren Harding cut the federal budget 48% from 1920 to 1922. The economy boomed. President Calvin Coolidge continued Harding's fiscal prudence, spending less in 1928 than Harding did in 1922. America enjoyed nine years of budget surpluses and arguably the best national economy in the world, post-World War I.

As World War II wound down, the United States cut spending by 75 percent. Spending as a percentage of GDP plunged from 44 percent in 1944 to 9 percent in 1948. Horrified, Keynesian Paul Samuelson, later a Nobel Prize-winner in economics, predicted "the greatest period of unemployment and industrial dislocation which any economy has ever faced." Other Keynesians foresaw violence in American streets. Instead, Samuelson advocated a gradual spending drawdown. Washington ignored him.

The post-war U.S. economy thrived. There was no mass unemployment despite rapid demobilization of the armed forces. It's true that the numbers of unemployed increased, but with a civilian labor force of 60.1 million, the 2.3 million unemployed people calculated an unemployment rate of only 3.8 percent, far superior to today's 8.1 percent. President Harry Truman said, "This is probably close to the minimum unavoidable in a free economy of great mobility such as ours."

Keynesians dismissed the postwar boom as an outlier. But the economy boomed again after the Cold War ended and overall federal spending fell from 22 percent of GDP in 1991 to 18 percent in 2000. During the period, real GDP grew by 40 percent with an average annual growth rate of 3.8 percent.

Recently, on Europe, Dr. Barro wrote, "Two interesting ... cases are Germany and Sweden, each of which moved toward rough budget balance between 2009 and 2011 while sustaining comparatively strong growth -- the average growth rate per year of real GDP for 2010 and 2011 was 3.6% for Germany and 4.9% for Sweden. If austerity is so terrible, how come these two countries have done so well?" And: "... there is nothing in the overall [European] Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) data since 2009 that supports the Keynesian view that fiscal expansion has promoted economic growth."

Barro concludes: "[T]here is a lot to say on economic grounds for strengthening fiscal austerity in OECD countries." That applies to America as well.

In fact, America and the European countries all suffer from decades of over-promising, overspending, and over-indulging special interests. To survive, America must give austerity another chance.

http://www.americanthinker.com/2012/05/economists_are_not_historians.html

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

Paul Krugman gave up being an honest economist a long time ago - shortly after he learned that the cool crowd gave him more attention when he conjured up economic-like arguments to support the left's irrational view of the world.

His most recent piece of propaganda claims that increased national debt causes economic growth. He supports his claim by looking at 5 countries and showing that the countries with higher debt levels grew faster over the last 3 months. Thousands of Krugman zombies must have been elated to finally see hard evidence that the 1% aren't any smarter or harder working: All you have to do is take on a lot of credit card debt.

But an economic Jedi -- an undergraduate from the University of Illinois -- uncovered the subtle flaw in Krugman's logic: The earth has more than 5 countries, and the world wasn't created 3 months ago. The student used a graph posted on his Facebook page to show that if you look at the 21 largest countries over the past year, you see a strong, clear relationship: Economies with higher debt grow less. (By the way, the IMF agrees with the undergrad.)

Krugman's analysis does offer one important value: It's an excellent example of what statisticians refer to as "strangling the data" to get it to say whatever the left wants to hear.


http://www.americanthinker.com/blog...te_takes-down_paul_krugman.html#ixzz1vK2w9Dxq

 

[richard_daily]

y Walter Pincus, Updated: Friday, May 18, 8:07 PM

The House approved a bill Friday that would provide $642.5 billion in defense spending for the next fiscal year, despite a veto threat from the White House, which objected to a series of provisions that would limit the president’s authority and challenge administration policies.

The bill, which passed by a vote of 299 to 120, would authorize spending $3.7 billion above the amount sought by President Obama and $8 billion above the level agreed to by Republicans and Democrats in August as part of their budget deal.

Good thing the government is spending more money, right beco?

 

[Beco]

Good thing the government is spending more money, right beco?

you know me well...............not!

Not a fan of war, weapons, spending on weapons, building weapons or selling weapons to assholes.......I realize some think we need this, maybe we do....but its such a waste of money

 

[eyer]

A solid interview with the Senate's most economically-interested man...

...during which he discusses the market facts of America's current financial matters, predicts Greece will be out of the euro by the end of the year with Spain, Italy, Portugal, and Ireland to follow, and that Japan will crash within 3 years:

TC: Well, you need to go study Japan. They’re going to crash.

EK: People have been saying that for 20 years.

TC: You have two things coming together. This is the first year they’ll be a net issuer of debt outside their country. They’ve totally financed all their debt internally. We haven’t. That’s one big difference. They also have a much lower birth rate. Seven births for every 1,000 people. So their population is shrinking and their demographic shift is much worse than ours. And this year, the postal system there that runs all their retirement accounts will not be buying any government debt. Zero. So the Japanese government, for the first time, is going into the international market. And the yen’s value is going to decline against every major currency. Whether that happens this year or next year or in three years, it’s going to happen. And they’ve now had almost two decades of no real GDP growth. So Japan isn’t going to make it. The reason they haven’t had any problems is they haven’t asked anyone else in the world to buy their debt. Now they’re going to have to.

The same thing ultimately will happen to us, but we’ll be the last person it happens to. The world still views this as the safest place. You see Greece, which will probably be out of the euro by the end of this year. Then you look at Spain and Italy and Portugal and Ireland. Europe is going to print money just like Ben Bernanke is printing money. And what’s the end result of that? Inflation.

Why all the doom and gloom?

TC: Because the market is biased towards up. Why do you invest in the market? Not because you think you’ll lose money. Why do you invest in bonds? To make money. Where is the contrarian view?

Let me give you one example. Five weeks ago, Bernanke said there would be no QE3. What happened to the 10-year bond in four days? It rose 48 basis points. What the market said then is if there’s no more QE3, we’re going to short the value of a bond. That’s one little signal. What if you get 20 signals? How do you explain the Chinese getting rid $160 billion of our debt last year? Eventually, they’re not going to buy our debt. Who bought most of our debt last year? It was the Federal Reserve. Go out there and try and float $10 billion of our long-term debt. You can’t. There’s no market. Because the long-term market is saying, send us a signal that you’ll fix this. And so the reason we have the shortest debt maturity in our country’s history is first, because you can’t sell long-term debt because no one wants to buy it, and second, because long-term debt makes the deficit look worse.

Discussion in total is here:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...5/15/gIQAIUteRU_blog.html?tid=pm_business_pop

 

[Sean Renaud]

big time correction happening here..........wait for the bottom, then buy

The dick suggested that the bottom was somewhere close to here. He said roughly 12,400 k so should I trust you and think next week is more fall out or trust him and think that if we're not at bottom we are near bottom?

 

[mercury14]

The dick suggested that the bottom was somewhere close to here. He said roughly 12,400 k so should I trust you and think next week is more fall out or trust him and think that if we're not at bottom we are near bottom?

It depends on Greek damage control more than the US economy... And that's not very predictable.

 

[Beco]

It depends on Greek damage control more than the US economy... And that's not very predictable.

10 posts a day, seems like you're here more...

 

[Beco]

The dick suggested that the bottom was somewhere close to here. He said roughly 12,400 k so should I trust you and think next week is more fall out or trust him and think that if we're not at bottom we are near bottom?

Dont trust either, cause nobody knows when its bottom. Like the RE market, how many times have you heard, " we hit bottom". Take your chances as best you can, that said, I think we have more of a correction.

no what they say, "Sell in May, then stay away"

 

[Sean Renaud]

Dont trust either, cause nobody knows when its bottom. Like the RE market, how many times have you heard, " we hit bottom". Take your chances as best you can, that said, I think we have more of a correction.

no what they say, "Sell in May, then stay away"

Not that I'm taking my investment advice from people on a porn site I'm just stating that I put more stock in both the predictions of an opinions of someone who's states that he thinks the market (or economy in general) is doing x and that evidence for his claim shows up in a matter of weeks is more credible than people who claim that the market is heading for a second crash and have been predicting it for nearly four years now.

I try to give credit where credit is due and occasionally be the guy who pats someone on the shoulder and say good job. Not that anybody round these parts really cares what I think but still.

 

[mercury14]

That's funny. It was just about three weeks ago that merc and I were having a discussion on the over-valuation of the markets...

You're been talking about the over-valuation of the markets since the Dow was sitting at 8k though.

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

It depends on Greek damage control more than the US economy... And that's not very predictable.

I'm sorry, but it was very predictable and we told you during your celebrations that the illusion of a recovery, was just that, an illusion because of the French-fried €PIIGS!, the China bubble, and here we have evidence of a Japanese bubble, not to mention our own education bubble and now the G8 is ganging up on Iran threatening the next spike in oil prices...

Everything about what is happening is VERY predictable other than the exact timing, and as I have said before, as Mises points out, if you could give a time for an event, then everyone would anticipate it and accelerate it.

Some of us have already anticipated it and taken what measures we can to protect ourselves...

Some of us just continue to "believe."

(Until the other side gets power in which case our problem is "general Republican Philosophy," not an abhorrence of rational fiscal restraint, witness Obama calling upon Europe to forgo austerity and resume the spending [and inflation] that got them to where they are in the first place in the name of getting the car out of the ditch...

DON'T YOU TELL US HOW TO HOLD THE MOP!)

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

You're been talking about the over-valuation of the markets since the Dow was sitting at 8k though.

Prove it.

 

[richard_daily]

Prove it.

No one has the interest in going through thousands of your dumb posts to find where you said it.

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

No one has the interest in going through thousands of your dumb posts to find where you said it.

Then, I did not say it.



That means you two are liars.



(Well, we know merc is...


Merc’s Day Alt:
http://forum.literotica.com/showthread.php?p=33735857&highlight=physician#post33735857
The lying
http://forum.literotica.com/showthread.php?t=800325 )

 

[Beco]

Not that I'm taking my investment advice from people on a porn site I'm just stating that I put more stock in both the predictions of an opinions of someone who's states that he thinks the market (or economy in general) is doing x and that evidence for his claim shows up in a matter of weeks is more credible than people who claim that the market is heading for a second crash and have been predicting it for nearly four years now.

I try to give credit where credit is due and occasionally be the guy who pats someone on the shoulder and say good job. Not that anybody round these parts really cares what I think but still.

I'm not giving advice, nor would I. I have been buying and selling stocks since I was a kid, still, i couldn't guess bottoms or booms, when to put in, when to pull out. Lots of this is emotional, Gekko said it best...." never get emotional about stocks"

 

[richard_daily]

Then, I did not say it.



That means you two are liars.



(Well, we know merc is...


Merc’s Day Alt:
http://forum.literotica.com/showthread.php?p=33735857&highlight=physician#post33735857
The lying
http://forum.literotica.com/showthread.php?t=800325 )

So, posting dozens of posts a day, and constantly changing alts means you "didn't say it"?

No, not at all. It means you're a coward who hides the truth in a pile of lies.