Western Birth Rates, Immigration and World Population

[LovetoGiveRoses]

This is a note from Germany....(credits at the bottom).

"There are fewer and fewer young people [in Germany]. ... As in Western Europe generally and in Italy most particularly, people are not having babies.

"These countries would be on a trajectory of decreasing population were it not for immigrants from Muslim countries. There are no doubt many reasons why the original German population is not reproducing, including the secular individualism nurtured by affluent societies and the attitudes and practices associated with what John Paul II calls 'the culture of death.'

"Having children is no longer considered a duty owed the future, but is viewed as one of many possibilities to be taken into account in calculating personal satisfaction and securing one's preferred way of life. ...

"The decrease in population, some contend, could be compensated for by increased immigration. This assumes that immigrants will be fully integrated into German and European culture, which assumes, in turn, that we have a clear and confident sense of cultural identity. It is no secret, however, that over recent decades a large number of immigrants came not in order to be part of German society, nor even to find work, but to benefit from our social security and health services."

— Wolfhart Pannenberg, writing on "Letter from Germany," in the March issue of First Things

 

[LovetoGiveRoses]

I think we should all have more babies. Anyone want to practice?

 

[LovetoGiveRoses]

Modern Population Growth

In the late 20th cent., a major population difference arose in the comparative growth rates of the developed (0.6%) and developing (2.1%) nations. Africa's annual growth rate is about 3%, compared to 1.7% for Asia, 0.7% in Latin America, and 0.3% in Europe. If current rates hold steady, many developing countries will double their populations in 25 years or less, compared to 50 years or more for industrialized nations. Great Britain, for example, has a present doubling rate of 140 years, while Costa Rica has one of 19 years.

Great Britain has accomplished what is known as demographic transition, i.e., it has moved from a condition of high birthrate and high death rate (before the Industrial Revolution), to one of high birthrate and low death rate (during industrialization), and finally to one of low birthrate and low death rate (as a postindustrial society). Most of the countries in the Third World are in a condition of high birthrate and declining death rate, contributing to what is known as the population explosion.

from infoplease.com

 

[REDWAVE]

Racist

This thread is implicitly racist.

 

[LovetoGiveRoses]

A lot of the growth in western countries is not "birth" related, rather it is immigration so the "growth" figures shown above are actually overstated for western countries. In fact, in many of them the non-immigration growth rate is declining.

 

[LovetoGiveRoses]

Interesting observation Red. I don't agree with you, but interesting.

 

[LovetoGiveRoses]

We still need more babies.

Birthrates per 1,000 people.

Country 2002
Australia 12.71
Austria 9.58
Belgium 10.58
Czech Republic1 9.08
Denmark 11.74
Finland 10.6
France 11.94
Germany2 8.99
Greece 9.82
Hungary 9.34
Ireland 14.62
Israel 18.91
Italy 8.93
Japan 10.03
Luxembourg 12.06
Mauritius 16.34
Netherlands 11.58
New Zealand 14.23
Norway 12.39
Panama 18.6
Poland 10.29
Portugal 11.5
Romania 10.81
Singapore 12.78
Sweden 9.81
Switzerland 9.84
Tunisia 16.83
United Kingdom 11.34
United States 14.1

From Infoplease.com

 

[REDWAVE]

Aren't you even going to challenge me and ask me why I think it is racist, Roses? Esepecially since I'm the only one so far who's even bothered to reply to this thread . . .

 

[ithaqua]

This is troubling.

 

[LovetoGiveRoses]

Aren't you even going to challenge me and ask me why I think it is racist, Roses? Esepecially since I'm the only one so far who's even bothered to reply to this thread . . .

Have you ever been shy about expressing your opinion? I don't think so. Feel free...

 

[REDWAVE]

I'm really very shy and bashful . . .

I think it's implicitly racist because you seem to be lamenting the high birth rate in areas where mostly darker-skinned persons live, and the lower birthrate among lighter-skinned persons. But perhaps I'm wrong. BTW, what do you think is the cause of this disparity, LTGR?

Have you ever read The Revolt of the Masses, by Jose Ortega y Gasset, Roses? I think you would really like it.

 

[LovetoGiveRoses]

Re: I'm really very shy and bashful . . .

I think it's implicitly racist because you seem to be lamenting the high birth rate in areas where mostly darker-skinned persons live, and the lower birthrate among lighter-skinned persons. But perhaps I'm wrong. BTW, what do you think is the cause of this disparity, LTGR?

No, I make no comment about other countries. I used the example in Germany to illustrate a point.

My only comment is that in the US our birthrate is fairly low and we have the resources to support more growth. This, in part, is a selfish whim, because first of all, I like kids and the whole the procreation process and second of all, we are going to need some significant population growth to support the ponzi scheme that some people call Social Security.

I'm proud of what we have acomplished here in the USA and I think it is a good thing for us to have more children and continue to raise them in our fashion.

 

[LovetoGiveRoses]

Re: I'm really very shy and bashful . . .

Have you ever read The Revolt of the Masses, by Jose Ortega y Gasset, Roses? I think you would really like it.

I haven't read it, but I'll look for it at the library.

I just finished "Dark Matter" kast night which is a novel, but touches upon the life of Sir Issac Newton.

 

[LovetoGiveRoses]

Though, there certainly is cause for concern in Europe too:

Eastern Europe's falling birth rates spell problems for an ageing EU
Sunday, 08-Dec-2002 8:10AM PST Story from AFP / Daniel Aronssohn
Copyright 2002 by Agence France-Presse (via ClariNet)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

VIENNA, Dec 8 (AFP) - Falling population rates in eastern Europe ever since the fall of communism will aggravate the problem of an ageing population in the enlarged European Union, experts say.

 

[8ball]

Interesting thread.

Racism? Hey, Redwave, check out this link, it's about racism in dogs. (actually, an interesting article)

Racist Hounds

 

[REDWAVE]

Yeah, right

No way, 8ball, I'm clicking on that link. It's probably a malicious link designed to destroy my computer.

 

[LovetoGiveRoses]

It's a fair comment Red, I think that is sometimes the case when people talk about demographics. But not all the time.

 

[LovetoGiveRoses]

This is a neat one....



Data for 1999.

 

[8ball]

Re: Yeah, right

No way, 8ball, I'm clicking on that link. It's probably a malicious link designed to destroy my computer.

I would have no reason, nor could there be any reason to send you or anyone a malicious link. It's simply an article from Slate that happened to be on my MSN homepage. "Paranoia will destroy ya".

It really is an article concerning dogs and racism.

I honestly don't see how you could have inferred any racism by LTGR in this post. Especially if you have read any of his other posts.

 

[LovetoGiveRoses]

Thanks 8Ball.

He reads a lot of my posts and we have some respect for each other. He gave me the benefit of the doubt instead of just jumping down my throat. I read a lot of his posts too. We don't agree on a lot, but we're civil to each other.

 

[REDWAVE]

Latino explosion

In the U.S., the most important demographic shift is the explosive increase in the percentage of Latinos (mostly Mexicans). That does not bode well for future GOP prospects for winning elections. That, and the dismal economic conditions, explain the current wave of attacks on immigrants and immigrant bashing. It also explains why Bush has gone out of his way to try to court Latino voters-- as opposed to blacks, whom the GOP has pretty much written off.

 

[8ball]

Re: Latino explosion

In the U.S., the most important demographic shift is the explosive increase in the percentage of Latinos (mostly Mexicans). That does not bode well for future GOP prospects for winning elections. That, and the dismal economic conditions, explain the current wave of attacks on immigrants and immigrant bashing. It also explains why Bush has gone out of his way to try to court Latino voters-- as opposed to blacks, whom the GOP has pretty much written off.

I don't know for sure, as I am going from memory, but, I remember hearing that alot of hispanic immigrants tended to be more republican. I remember some report about this a few years ago.

 

[8ball]

Thanks 8Ball.

He reads a lot of my posts and we have some respect for each other. He gave me the benefit of the doubt instead of just jumping down my throat. I read a lot of his posts too. We don't agree on a lot, but we're civil to each other.

Your welcome, not that I think you need any help defending yourself or your point of view. I just thought that was a huge leap by Redwave.

 

[LovetoGiveRoses]

This is interesting too:

William H. Reid
Human Development Specialist
Georgia Cooperative Extension Service
University of Georgia-Athens

K. Davis, M. S. Berstam, and R. Ricado-Campbell, eds., Below Replacement Fertility in Industrial Societies: Causes, Consequences, and Policies. New York: Cambridge University Press, 1987.

Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.
Demographics is the study of population. Malthus was one of the first to predict critical consequences for society as a result of overpopulation. A century later, modern demographers resumed the call for population control through Zero Population Growth (ZPG).

In most of the developed countries in the 1980s, ZPG has been achieved. Of 25 European countries for which data were available, only four haven't reached ZPG. The United States has reached this goal.

Now some demographers are painting a bleak picture of the future because we have reached ZPG. It's common to read in popular periodicals today of the dire consequences because of ZPG. For example, there are so many members of the baby boom generation, that their retirement will create chaos in our society. Today, five people work for every retired person. In 2030, that figure is projected to be halved. For every retired person, there will be only 2.5 persons in the labor force. The result? The Social Security system will become overwhelmed, the economy will stagnate, the generation gap will create major divisions in our society, and innovation will decrease. Some picture our world of the future as a population of old people living in old houses with old ideas.

 

[LovetoGiveRoses]

Re: Re: Latino explosion

I don't know for sure, as I am going from memory, but, I remember hearing that alot of hispanic immigrants tended to be more republican. I remember some report about this a few years ago.

A lot of the Cuban refugees are Republican. They understand what life was like under Castro.

Overall, hispanics don't vote as a single, unified block. In the last election, I read somewhere that 39.7% of hispanics voted for GWB. He's actively reaching out to hispanics and I think part of the "go-forward" strategy is to continue to reach out to that community with ideas and see if they'll cast votes for the GOP.

This is, in part, why the nomination of Miguel Estrada is so interesting. Here's a highly qualified hispanic nominee who is being blocked by many democrats. In fact, the group of hispanic advocacy groups are split between supporting his nomination and fighting it.

The large influx of (needed) immigrants, largely from Mexico, is very helpful to our economy. Though this influx is causing discomfort in some areas.

Its all kinda interesting to follow.