UK By-elections

[Adrian69702006]

Tomorrow, 20th July, there will be three UK by-elections. I'm willing to be proved wrong, but my predictions in terms of the outcomes are as follows:

Uxbridge and South Ruislip - Labour gain

Froome and Somerset - Lib Dem Gain

Selby and Ainsty - Conservative hold

 

[Bray123]

Tomorrow, 20th July, there will be three UK by-elections. I'm willing to be proved wrong, but my predictions in terms of the outcomes are as follows:

Uxbridge and South Ruislip - Labour gain

Froome and Somerset - Lib Dem Gain

Selby and Ainsty - Conservative hold

All the right results, not necessarily in the right order.

Uxbridge and South Ruislip - Conservative hold

Froome and Somerset - Lib Dem Gain

Selby and Ainsty - Labour gain

 

[Adrian69702006]

Yes I was a little surprised by the Uxbridge Conservative hold. Various commentators seem to think ULEZ played a part and the Mayor of London needs to watch his back accordingly. Froome and Somerton didn't surprise me. It's the sort of area where disaffected Tories would switch to the Lib Dems. What did surprise was Labour taking Selby and Ainsty off the Tories, overturning a 20,000 majority. H M Government need to see that as a canary in the mine. Inflation may be going down but people are still feeling the pinch. A freeze on personal allowances has pulled more people into the tax net. For what it's worth I think personal allowances need to go up. If the chancellor and PM are wise, I think something will have to be announced in the Autumn Statement.

 

[Bray123]

Ed Davey (the Lib Dem leader) was predictably excited in Somerset, telling everyone it was a great day with a cartoon cannon and a cartoon match to fire all the Tories.

It seemed a tad pathetic, & would be more impressive if he could win a seat somewhere outside of the West Country.