The Trade War

[Kantarii]

Apparently, Mexico has now displaced China as America’s number 1 trading partner.


China lost its spot as the U.S.'s biggest trading partner in the first half of 2019, thanks to the prolonged trade war between the world's two largest economies.

Might be interesting to see how this plays out now.

https://apple.news/AI_zqByaiREKXPQtwz6LC2w

 

[HisArpy]

China has all kinds of problems on its hands. Yet, all it really needs to do is stop acting like a rogue nation and it all goes away.

 

[doowdniw]

Great news for all our farmers. Yay, winning!

 

[Kantarii]

China has all kinds of problems on its hands. Yet, all it really needs to do is stop acting like a rogue nation and it all goes away.

Have you noticed that the mainstream media is only focusing on the impacts on the American economy and avoiding the impacts on the Chinese economy?

Anyway, if we don’t stand up now, who will? Strategic patience isn’t going to work on this issue. Personally, I see, down the road, a decoupling of the two largest economies.

 

[Hal9000_]

Of course. Greedy American corporations move their factories there to avoid paying fair wages.

 

[LukNotLuke]

Donald Trump flunks Trade Policy 101 (again)

 

[LukNotLuke]

45's dipshit supporters still defend 45's dipshitery.

Fox host takes epic swipe at Trump on national TV

 

[HisArpy]

Have you noticed that the mainstream media is only focusing on the impacts on the American economy and avoiding the impacts on the Chinese economy?

Anyway, if we don’t stand up now, who will? Strategic patience isn’t going to work on this issue. Personally, I see, down the road, a decoupling of the two largest economies.

Listened to some talk about this the other day. My take is that I don't see it happening.

Besides the fact that there really isn't any place other than the US for China to dump it's products, China exists for international trade. You don't prosper by cutting off your customers to spite your citizens.

 

[bellisarius]

Listened to some talk about this the other day. My take is that I don't see it happening.

Besides the fact that there really isn't any place other than the US for China to dump it's products, China exists for international trade. You don't prosper by cutting off your customers to spite your citizens.

Agreed. (decoupling)

They really have no other market to sell in to to make up the loss. And spending like a sailor that's been at sea for a few years along with their currency manipulation has set them up for some real fiscal problems.

 

[Rightguide]

Apparently, Mexico has now displaced China as America’s number 1 trading partner.


China lost its spot as the U.S.'s biggest trading partner in the first half of 2019, thanks to the prolonged trade war between the world's two largest economies.

Might be interesting to see how this plays out now.

https://apple.news/AI_zqByaiREKXPQtwz6LC2w

Another aspect of this "trade war" is American and European companies are leaving China. I think in the long run Trump is in the driver's seat. What Americans have to remember is the Chinese will fight a 100 year war. We have to be just as committed to the long game as they will be. We have the ability to break the Chinese economy and they know it. We just have to remain steadfast.

 

[HisArpy]

China has been financing everything with an unlimited credit card but, eventually the bill collectors will come calling. At that point the fireworks are going to start.

The question is how big will the show turn out to be.

 

[Rightguide]

Have you noticed that the mainstream media is only focusing on the impacts on the American economy and avoiding the impacts on the Chinese economy?

Anyway, if we don’t stand up now, who will? Strategic patience isn’t going to work on this issue. Personally, I see, down the road, a decoupling of the two largest economies.

They don't want to make Trump look good. The Chinese economy is tanking. Anyone interested in the Chinese and their economy should be reading books and articles by Michael Pillsbury, Gordon G. Chang. Both have written extensively on China, their economy, and the geo politics involved.

 

[Kantarii]

China has been financing everything with an unlimited credit card but, eventually the bill collectors will come calling. At that point the fireworks are going to start.

The question is how big will the show turn out to be.

Yeah, it’s pretty well known they are messing up with their shadow banking. I’m waiting on that bubble to burst.

 

[Kantarii]

They don't want to make Trump look good. The Chinese economy is tanking. Anyone interested in the Chinese and their economy should be reading books and articles by Michael Pillsbury, Gordon G. Chang. Both have written extensively on China, their economy, and the geo politics involved.

I stopped investing my money in China when Trump was on the campaign trail prior to the 2016 election. I had a feeling his Chins rhetoric had some weight to it.

 

[HisArpy]

They don't want to make Trump look good. The Chinese economy is tanking. Anyone interested in the Chinese and their economy should be reading books and articles by Michael Pillsbury, Gordon G. Chang. Both have written extensively on China, their economy, and the geo politics involved.

The whole issue is centered in the geopolitics and whether China will escalate what they're doing in order to try and stem the economic bloodloss.

 

[Kantarii]

Another aspect of this "trade war" is American and European companies are leaving China. I think in the long run Trump is in the driver's seat. What Americans have to remember is the Chinese will fight a 100 year war. We have to be just as committed to the long game as they will be. We have the ability to break the Chinese economy and they know it. We just have to remain steadfast.

They are playing a long game to wait out Trump. A 4 year term isn’t long, but if he is re-elected then it starts compounding. The longer the trade war goes, the more likely companies will start to adapt to it and move operations elsewhere. Honestly, big companies were fools not to see this sort of thing coming by putting all their eggs in one basket by operating in China and not diversifying the supply chains.

What the Chinese aren’t considering is the lasting effects. Say Trump does get a second term. Then the 4year speed bump becomes 8. Sure, they could weather that as well. However, what if Trump’s methods prove too much of a strain on their economy. What if the presidency after Trump continues the same tactics? That’s the lasting effects they aren’t considering.

 

[Rightguide]

China has been financing everything with an unlimited credit card but, eventually the bill collectors will come calling. At that point the fireworks are going to start.

The question is how big will the show turn out to be.

Personally, I think we should have never opened up trade with China in the first place. We should have went after them like we did the Soviet Union. All we've done is allow them to steal out technological advantage to a tune of 500 billion a year in stolen technology and intellectual property. It's allowed them to build a formidable military that threatens the entire region, solidify their Communist control over their people and snuff out any self determination towards freedom. If Nixon would have left them to their own devices we'd be 50 to 100 years ahead of them by now.

 

[bellisarius]

The whole issue is centered in the geopolitics and whether China will escalate what they're doing in order to try and stem the economic bloodloss.

Historically that has never worked out in the long run.

Take Hong Kong for instance. Hong Kong has been their gray market portal to Western trade. Stirring up trouble there doesn't make a whole lot of sense right now. After a trade agreement was reached would be much better timing.

Then there's Taiwan. They can't choke it off without basically engaging in a wholesale invasion and that would destroy the infrastructure and industry. Which in turn would represent a huge rebuilding bill for China. Look at what reunification cost Germany and that was peaceful.

 

[Kantarii]

The whole issue is centered in the geopolitics and whether China will escalate what they're doing in order to try and stem the economic bloodloss.

At this point, anything China does to retaliate will be more painful to them. They have a command of the rare earth elements. Cutting that off will shift markets. Australia has already made it known to the US that they could supply us with a little investment. Then, there’s Mountain Pass in California. Still it would take a few years to get up to speed, but it wouldn’t hurt the US.

The Treasury bonds? Ha! China is addicted to them. There’s not one single country that could afford to buy a trillion dollars or so if them at once. Plus, dumping them in mass would drive down the yields. A mistake in and of itself.

 

[Kantarii]

Historically that has never worked out in the long run.

Take Hong Kong for instance. Hong Kong has been their gray market portal to Western trade. Stirring up trouble there doesn't make a whole lot of sense right now. After a trade agreement was reached would be much better timing.

Then there's Taiwan. They can't choke it off without basically engaging in a wholesale invasion and that would destroy the infrastructure and industry. Which in turn would represent a huge rebuilding bill for China. Look at what reunification cost Germany and that was peaceful.

Speaking of which, Hong Kong is primed now to be a thorn in China’s side and possibly another Tiennamen Square. If Taiwan was smart, they’d call China’s bluff and declare their independence. Those two hotspots could be a flash point to push a whole lot of shit to the surface with China.

 

[HisArpy]

Personally, I think we should have never opened up trade with China in the first place. We should have went after them like we did the Soviet Union. All we've done is allow them to steal out technological advantage to a tune of 500 billion a year in stolen technology and intellectual property. It's allowed them to build a formidable military that threatens the entire region, solidify their Communist control over their people and snuff out any self determination towards freedom. If Nixon would have left them to their own devices we'd be 50 to 100 years ahead of them by now.

Historically that has never worked out in the long run.

Take Hong Kong for instance. Hong Kong has been their gray market portal to Western trade. Stirring up trouble there doesn't make a whole lot of sense right now. After a trade agreement was reached would be much better timing.

Then there's Taiwan. They can't choke it off without basically engaging in a wholesale invasion and that would destroy the infrastructure and industry. Which in turn would represent a huge rebuilding bill for China. Look at what reunification cost Germany and that was peaceful.

At this point, anything China does to retaliate will be more painful to them. They have a command of the rare earth elements. Cutting that off will shift markets. Australia has already made it known to the US that they could supply us with a little investment. Then, there’s Mountain Pass in California. Still it would take a few years to get up to speed, but it wouldn’t hurt the US.

The Treasury bonds? Ha! China is addicted to them. There’s not one single country that could afford to buy a trillion dollars or so if them at once. Plus, dumping them in mass would drive down the yields. A mistake in and of itself.

Lamenting history doesn't change the way things are now. Woulda/coulda/shoulda doesn't work.

Currently I'm not sure Xi actually has control of his country. He seems to, but there's so much going on that directly contradicts what he's doing that it's hard to tell. Things like China can't even adhere to the tentative trade deal Xi and Trump worked out only a few months ago.

I also think the unrest in HK has roots elsewhere than China. HK liked it's national autonomy and the best way to get it back is to foment unrest with the current landlord and then fight for independence. Right now China is engaged with an economic war with the world. Their attention is spread pretty thin with that. Perhaps HK believes that China won't hammer them because that would mean China has to take it's eye off the world conquest ball while they're doing that.

It becomes a trade-off. Does China pull back to hammer HK or continue what it's doing militarily and economically everywhere else? Take your pick and lay your bets.

 

[Rightguide]

They are playing a long game to wait out Trump. A 4 year term isn’t long, but if he is re-elected then it starts compounding. The longer the trade war goes, the more likely companies will start to adapt to it and move operations elsewhere. Honestly, big companies were fools not to see this sort of thing coming by putting all their eggs in one basket by operating in China and not diversifying the supply chains.

What the Chinese aren’t considering is the lasting effects. Say Trump does get a second term. Then the 4year speed bump becomes 8. Sure, they could weather that as well. However, what if Trump’s methods prove too much of a strain on their economy. What if the presidency after Trump continues the same tactics? That’s the lasting effects they aren’t considering.

The bottom line to me is the Chinese economy is crumbling. It's seen 11 months of declining car car sales and imports are down over 8%, a strong indication of declining domestic demand. They need our market to survive.

I've been skeptical of Chinese growth for some time now. in 2016 when they were claiming a 6.7% growth rate the Wold Bank pegged it at 1.1%. So there's a lot of fake news and China promoting BS out there and Gordon Chang has put the spotlight on a lot of it.

 

[Kantarii]

Lamenting history doesn't change the way things are now. Woulda/coulda/shoulda doesn't work.

Currently I'm not sure Xi actually has control of his country. He seems to, but there's so much going on that directly contradicts what he's doing that it's hard to tell. Things like China can't even adhere to the tentative trade deal Xi and Trump worked out only a few months ago.

I also think the unrest in HK has roots elsewhere than China. HK liked it's national autonomy and the best way to get it back is to foment unrest with the current landlord and then fight for independence. Right now China is engaged with an economic war with the world. Their attention is spread pretty thin with that. Perhaps HK believes that China won't hammer them because that would mean China has to take it's eye off the world conquest ball while they're doing that.

It becomes a trade-off. Does China pull back to hammer HK or continue what it's doing militarily and economically everywhere else? Take your pick and lay your bets.

The trade war between the US and China is stirring the pot. Hong Kong and Taiwan may be using it to exert their on agendas, pressuring China. At any rate, sooner or later things will hit a breaking point. I wonder what China, let alone the world, would do if Trump decided to recognize Taiwan as a country?

 

[Rightguide]

Lamenting history doesn't change the way things are now. Woulda/coulda/shoulda doesn't work.

Currently I'm not sure Xi actually has control of his country. He seems to, but there's so much going on that directly contradicts what he's doing that it's hard to tell. Things like China can't even adhere to the tentative trade deal Xi and Trump worked out only a few months ago.

I also think the unrest in HK has roots elsewhere than China. HK liked it's national autonomy and the best way to get it back is to foment unrest with the current landlord and then fight for independence. Right now China is engaged with an economic war with the world. Their attention is spread pretty thin with that. Perhaps HK believes that China won't hammer them because that would mean China has to take it's eye off the world conquest ball while they're doing that.

It becomes a trade-off. Does China pull back to hammer HK or continue what it's doing militarily and economically everywhere else? Take your pick and lay your bets.

On Hong kong, I'm thinking the Chinese are going to lose that argument. They're going to have to step back and reconsider their policies vis a vis Hong Kong. There are simply too many people in the street.

 

[Kantarii]

The bottom line to me is the Chinese economy is crumbling. It's seen 11 months of declining car car sales and imports are down over 8%, a strong indication of declining domestic demand. They need our market to survive.

I've been skeptical of Chinese growth for some time now. in 2016 when they were claiming a 6.7% growth rate the Wold Bank pegged it at 1.1%. So there's a lot of fake news and China promoting BS out there and Gordon Chang has put the spotlight on a lot of it.

Personally, I think their economic growth numbers are overinflated.