The Shy Tory Effect

[4est_4est_Gump]

What do you think?

Yet there is another factor that, mixed with Bradley, could radically distort the numbers -- and it is a concept not known in America, but known very well in the United Kingdom. Called "The Shy Tory Effect," it could be the little-known variable that could be hiding a landslide for Mitt Romney.

The concept was coined after the British general election of 1992, the result of which stunned the pollsters, the politicians, and the media. After 13 years in office, the ruling Conservative Party was Thatcher-less and divided. Led by their extreme Welsh socialist leader Neil Kinnock (the same Neil Kinnock whose speeches Joe Biden had already ripped off), the left-wing Labour Party were firmly ahead in the polls. Britain was drifting toward a socialist authoritarianism that they hadn't experienced since the 1970s.

As election day approached, Labour held a chunky lead, causing Kinnock to yell giddily into the microphone in his final speech to the Party before election day, "We're all right, we're all right" repeatedly, to rapturous applause.

It seemed Labour had it in the bag. The only exception was the cool and collected Tory prime minister, John Major, whose internal polling suggested that things were not as they seemed.

As the results came in on election night, Labour started off celebrating. However, by 10 o'clock, the BBC's exit poll predicted that Labour might not win, but there would be a hung parliament, which would still probably cause Kinnock to be prime minister of a coalition.

Yet the final result was a total shock -- a comfortable win for the Tories, losing a few seats, but picking up the highest total number of votes for any political party since 1951. Left-wing pundits couldn't explain what had happened.

The explanation for the gap between polls and reality was eventually named "The Shy Tory Factor." Since the ascension of Thatcher to Downing Street in 1979, the Tories had been presented as a nasty, evil party that wanted to destroy communities in their war against the miners, gut health care, and take money from the poor to give to the rich via the poll tax . Does this sound familiar to any Americans at all?

While the policies of the Conservative Party were popular, the media and the screeching left had helped turn the Tory brand into a toxic one that many people didn't want to be associated with in spite of their secret support. Therefore, when polled, the shy Tories answered Labour, but voted Conservative.

Although this happened twenty years ago and in a different country, I propose that the important characteristics that make up the Shy Tory Factor are present in America in 2012. According to the mainstream media, the Republicans want to deny people health care, throw Granny off a cliff, and generally reduce the country to a Dickensian nightmare when the rich get richer, and do so by pulling bread out of the mouths of the hungry. Mixed with the aforementioned labeling of Republicans and Tea Partiers as racist, this is quite a suppressive combination.

While this blend of the Bradley effect and Shy Tory Factor may not affect voters in red states, in purple states it is not difficult to see why those intending to vote Republican may not wish to publicly identify as so, even to a pollster promising anonymity, in fear of being judged as the new Jim Crow.

The other note worth mentioning is that, in the Shy Tory Factor, the only person who knew of its existence before the election was the leader, whose internal polling is usually more accurate. Could this be why Obama's team seems to have gone into panic in recent weeks? Do they know something the polling companies don't?

Read more: http://www.americanthinker.com/2012...uld_be_masking_a_landslide.html#ixzz251iJ6Ae1

 

[ChinaBandit]

Have you considered the "tight whore effect"?

This phenomenon is equally as rare as the one described in your original post.

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

Have you considered the "tight whore effect"?

This phenomenon is equally as rare as the one described in your original post.

I think that you can make people fear to speak up even when you cannot use intimidation to change their mind.

 

[ChinaBandit]

People are pretty darn vocal about their dislike for Obama.

People are pretty darn vocal about their dislike for Romney.

I don't believe there is 5%-10% either way, for the sake of quantifying it, that is afraid to reveal true feelings or voting intentions to polling organizations.

 

[unregistered]

 

[ChinaBandit]

While in my car a couple of weeks ago I heard Limbaugh say he had a feeling he almost didn't want to share for fear of being quoted, he said he had a sense of an impending landslide. He said it wasn't supported by the polls, just a sense that something big was going to happen on election day. We'll see.

Oh Christ, Rush just killed all credit to the premise.

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

People are pretty darn vocal about their dislike for Obama.

People are pretty darn vocal about their dislike for Romney.

I don't believe there is 5%-10% either way, for the sake of quantifying it, that is afraid to reveal true feelings or voting intentions to polling organizations.

I believe in the Bradley effect and I believe the Democrat strategists when they say that they are going negative to depress the vote of the undecided as well as with the Tea Party and Libertarian voters, (as well as is the Republican hierarchy in Washington DC) and am wondering, will this tactic work, is this polarization and vilification really the way to win an election and having won in this manner, why would the vilified and castigated ever work with you to solve any problem having been labeled as the problem.

I am also recalling the fact that the press and the polling really did miss the 2010 Tsunami and that they are poling to verify a story that they are repeating to themselves about the popularity of their President and Party.

Just thinking. After all, I am sure, beyond a shadow of a doubt that Obama is going to win reelection, I just wonder at what cost...

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

While in my car a couple of weeks ago I heard Limbaugh say he had a feeling he almost didn't want to share for fear of being quoted, he said he had a sense of an impending landslide. He said it wasn't supported by the polls, just a sense that something big was going to happen on election day. We'll see.

I heard him say that as well as Morris, but I have my doubts.

We're pretty polarized and as I just stated, the DC branches of both parties are doing everything in their power, for two different reasons, to marginalize and silence all conservative opposition to big government and the joys of ruling.

I, for one, feel that they need to migrate to the Libertarian Party and become the voice of opposition and kill the one-party system of two shades of Big Government and work back towards a true bottom-up Republic instead of a top-down Democracy...

 

[ChinaBandit]

I saw where the Republicans scared the Constituion Party off the PA ballot with legal costs.

They are also challenging the Libretarians there.

Interestingly, PA Democrats are not challenging the Green Party.

Both parties should be condemned for this sort of shit.

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

I saw where the Republicans scared the Constituion Party off the PA ballot with legal costs.

They are also challenging the Libretarians there.

Interestingly, PA Democrats are not challenging the Green Party.

Both parties should be condemned for this sort of shit.

Yeah, and that has been, for a long time, a knee-jerk problem for the Republican Party.

All you have to do is accuse some faction of being too radical and they rush to prove how mainstream they are by censure and shun whereas the various factions of the Democratic party know they have to stick together to maintain a plurality in any election and will defend at all costs any radical segment of the party; they rely on quid pro quo while the Republicans expect you to conform to their moderate model of what it takes to win an election, which, is why, as I stated somewhat above, probably why they will lose, they're too worried about their image and what the Democrat Press and Intelligentsia will say of them, which brings me back to wondering about the Shy Tory Effect because down here, in the shunned community, we hate them all equally at this point.