The Riots in Egypt

[3113]

I've certainly been hearing about them--and seeing some mind-blowing footage of what's happening over there--but I really feel a lack of understanding about the why's and wherefore's. I mean, obviously, I know that the government isn't good and hasn't been good for a while, and people have finally had enough. That's a no-brainer. But I'd certainly appreciate it if some wise soul here, with better knowledge of international affairs or Egyptian politics would get me up to speed.

For example, I gather that things have been bad and getting worse for some twenty years. What finally sparked this tinderbox? Why now? (I know Tunisia inspired some of it, but was there anything else?)

What do the people rioting want to happen (optimally), and what, likely will happen? (Again, obviously, no one knows for sure, but I'd be interested in some informed guesswork).

How will such changes in Egypt affect the mid-east? Will it likely change relations between Egypt and it's neighbors? How about Egypt and its relations with the West?

I'm interested in any thoughts or observations on the situation and it's possible/probable outcome that those of you in the know might have.

 

[voluptuary_manque]

The questions you raise are being desperately researched in the State Department as we speak. It's all going to depend on who comes out on top. Israel is frantic to keep Mubarak in power because they fear that the Moslem Brotherhood would succeed him and give them another front to fear.

The royal states are sweating the situation because it if goes Tunisia to Egypt to . . . , there is no way of knowing which country would blow up next. Personally, I'm betting Lebanon but I'm no Mid-East expert. I don't even like the place.

The Middle East has been a source of frustration for the US government since WWII. I don't see that frustration being resolved any time soon.

 

[JackLuis]

I read on Al-Jiz that the minimum wage in Egypt was 6.40 a month. Don't know if that was dollars or Euros, but it is a very damn little.

Mubarik won the last election with 86% of the vote. Makes you wonder if he had Florida's election counters working for him?

 

[voluptuary_manque]

I read on Al-Jiz that the minimum wage in Egypt was 6.40 a month. Don't know if that was dollars or Euros, but it is a very damn little.

Mubarik won the last election with 86% of the vote. Makes you wonder if he had Florida's election counters working for him?

No, he had the Army and the Secret Police!

 

[sr71plt]

Mubarak has been in power for almost 30 years and, in Mideast terms, has been a pragmatic moderate among countries with Muslim majorities. Following in the footsteps of Anwar as-Sadat (assassinated 6 Oct 1981) before him, he has been more than a few steps ahead of the Cairo street on his willingness to, initially, tolerate and, eventually (under U.S. bought-for influence), work with (more in private than in public) the Israelis for stability in the region. Like Turkey, Egypt, is a declared secular state--with a Muslim foundation. This has always made for a shaky foundation, and he's just getting too old and tired to hold it all together. He hasn't been good about grooming up a succession. Egypt has been, in fact, one of the least repressive Muslim states in the Mideast internally. But that can turn on a dime--and pretty much has . . . and quickly. But this is the way it goes in places like the Mideast and Central/South America.

(I doubt Mubarak counts too much on the army. It was Muslim Brotherhood officers in the army who assassinated as-Sadat--as as-Sadat predicted would happen. And the Brotherhood is too powerful to be frozen out of the officer ranks in the army. Reports today report that soldiers are breaking ranks and joining with the protesters.)

 

[JackLuis]

Egypt in chaos, not quite, the self defense forces are out and at play.

http://english.aljazeera.net/mritems/Images/2011/1/29/2011129183922702633_20.jpg

Looting spreads in Egyptian cities
Looters seen stealing objects in various cities as residents form vigilante groups in defence.

Clubs and spears?

 

[sr71plt]

Egypt in chaos, not quite, the self defense forces are out and at play.

Clubs and spears?

That can't be Cairo. Every time I've been there the road surfaces have been completely covered with honking car chassis (day and night).

 

[TE999]

Evidently Egypt's museums are being looted by the mobs. Who knows how many priceless antiquities are being stolen or destroyed. If Muslim fundamentalists are behind this revolt and it succeeds, other Arab states could fall like dominoes.

$10.00 a gallon for gasoline anyone?

 

[JAMESBJOHNSON]

Gold and oil prices were falling; so something was needed to scare the markets UP. Now Wall Street is depressed, but I predict Obama will jump in the market this week, buying depressed stocks. Then the unemployment numbers will come out on Friday, everyone will be depressed, and the Democrats will get another dose of the blue balls.

 

[squarejohn]

If Muslim fundamentalists are behind this revolt and it succeeds, other Arab states could fall like dominoes.

$10.00 a gallon for gasoline anyone?

It looks like Yemen is next in line. Maybe the whole Middle East needs to be shaken up from the inside out. Reason isn't working over there; in that case, force has to come to the rescue.

I can see $5.00 a gallon pretty soon, which would please the Obama regime.

During the first oil crisis back in, whatwasit, 1973, I remember Henry Kissinger saying in an interview, that if it came down to it, we'd just go there and take their oil. I wonder why China and India are building aircraft carriers? Maybe they have the same sentiments as Kissinger. Or maybe they'll go to war against each other to see who comes out as top dog in their neighborhood.

If we didn't feel like going over there and taking Middle East oil, we might try something revolutionary, such as drilling for our own oil. But that would cause oil prices to fall and the unemployment rate to go down. But that would go against the Obama regime's policy of wrecking the US economy, so forget that. Go out and buy yourself a begging bowl while you can still afford one.

 

[trysail]

You know who you are and— yes— the hypocrisy and chutzpah is loathsome.

I must admit I kept reading through this to see where the erotica started--and didn't find it. Glad the feedback was excellent though.

http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/11/hypocrisy-meter.gif​

 

[Bebeslut]

Actually, I'm surprised Mubarek is still there -- I figured he'd be gone by this morning.
The protesters probably will have to escalate the violence dramatically before Mubarek decides its time to catch a plan to Saudi Arabia. So far, other than government-sponsosred violence, it seems the only civil violence occurring is coming from the criminals freed from the prisons. That's scary.
I have no idea what will happen. Should this "revolution" succeed in chasing Mubarek from the country, surely the Muslim Brotherhood will have a large role in the new order. This probably won't be good for the U.S., but I am very skeptical of the efficacy of supporting a "friend" like Mubarek.
Will the rest of the Middle East plunge into turmoil? Don't know. I doubt that Saudi Arabia will, since the authorities maintain such tight control there. And I don't really know what the Saudi general population thinks.
Syria? Doubt it. Those jerks also maintain a tight control.
However, these are interesting times!

 

[3113]

Museums? Are you sure?

Evidently Egypt's museums are being looted by the mobs.

Are you sure about that? From here:

One Cairo building that has been spared so far in the anti-government protests is the Egyptian Museum, despite a fire raging at the ruling National Democratic Party office nearby.

Locals were determined to protect national treasures.

“We are Egyptians and this is the Egyptian Museum,” said one man.

“We are standing here and calling for the army to come as soon as possible and we will not leave until the army arrives.”

Of course, this might have changed in the last 24 hours.

 

[TE999]

Are you sure about that? From here:


Of course, this might have changed in the last 24 hours.

Looters were caught carrying artifacts from the state museum...they were after King Tut's treasure, but didn't get it. The capitol's in a hellacious mess.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...es-Americans-leave-30-000-Brits-stranded.html

 

[R. Richard]

Egypt is on fire. Apparently the average wage there is equivalent to $6.40 a month. There are a few very wealthy at the top and large numbers of poor at the bottom. Suddenly, the poor are demanding a better deal, possibly set off by what happened in Tunisia. Unfortunately the army and the Muslim Brotherhood are the only large scale organized forces. The Muslim Brotherhood is basically a Nazi type organization and is only concerned with power.

The Egyptian scumbags were obviously all recruited from New Orleans scumbags. The scumbags cut and ran at the first signs of trouble. Now, unarmed citizens are trying to protect themselves with clubs or garden implements. "An armed citizen is a citizen. An unarmed citizen is a slave."

The trouble will spread to any number of flashpoints in the mideast. The most likely outcome is that the heavily armed jihadists will prevail. The USA position seems to be to talk. Talk to whom? The Egyptian Army doesn't want to talk. The Muslim Brotherhood doesn't want to talk. However, talk would be a good solution. Ship a bunch of high level USA diplomats to Cairo to talk. One way tickets. JHMTHO.

 

[sr71plt]

Actually, I'm surprised Mubarek is still there -- I figured he'd be gone by this morning.

I'm not surprised. He's been in power for 30 years and it hasn't been all champagne and roses. This isn't really a gigantic change from the norm, gang. It's serious, yes, but Egypt has been on the edge since before the British left. His predecessor went out on a slab--as did several predecessors before that--he's spent this entire 30 years knowing he's been living on the edge of the same all of that time. He's 82 years old. Why would he walk out on the strength of street riots?

 

[3113]

The USA position seems to be to talk.

What would you suggest the USA do instead? Have we a spare trillion to waste sending in armed forces into yet another middle east country?

And exactly what are we to do if we go in with guns blazing?

Seriously, I've no objection to anyone playing armchair president and criticizing those who want to talk, but if you think talking is a stupid idea...what do you think is a smart idea?

 

[trysail]

What would you suggest the USA do instead? Have we a spare trillion to waste sending in armed forces into yet another middle east country?

And exactly what are we to do if we go in with guns blazing?

Seriously, I've no objection to anyone playing armchair president and criticizing those who want to talk, but if you think talking is a stupid idea...what do you think is a smart idea?

There's wisdom in the old aphorism,

"You can keep your mouth shut and the world will think you a fool or you can open it— and prove it."​

Maybe, just maybe the dolts of Foggy Bottom ought to keep their traps shut ( for once ). Unfortunately, it's already too late. The U.S. could easily find itself playing in a no-win game. The trouble with the Foggy Bottom crowd ( and much of D.C. ) is that they are born meddlers, gossips and busybodies— incapable of minding their own business.


It's a matter for the Egyptians to settle. It's none of our business. The AIPAC mob is, no doubt, tearing their hair out.

 

[rgraham666]

What would you suggest the USA do instead? Have we a spare trillion to waste sending in armed forces into yet another middle east country?

And exactly what are we to do if we go in with guns blazing?

Seriously, I've no objection to anyone playing armchair president and criticizing those who want to talk, but if you think talking is a stupid idea...what do you think is a smart idea?

Jaw, jaw is better than war, war. - Winston Churchill

 

[sr71plt]

Methinks Trysail is one who should heed his own advice given above.

There is no win-win strategy to be had in the Middle East. And in Egypt, as almost everywhere (Read Iraq and Afghanistan in spades), there's no one "wonderful" leader or party for the United States to support. For forty years, the United States has helped bolster a moderate regime that helped bolster stability in the region in Egypt through (massive) foreign aid support and walking a tight rope of diplomacy and rhetoric. This is through two Egyptian regimes--as-Sadat and Mubarak--and multiple U.S. administrations under both parties.

The White House and the State Department are walking what is a very thin rope now with the situation in Egypt. They are neither idiots at what they are doing or are they pursuing a policy that hasn't worked as best as possible in U.S. interests for forty years.

They show no evidence of either throwing up their hands in defeat or just walking away from a forty-year ally (that certainly would go down well with other world leaders we're bolstering in our own interests), or invading.

Invading is certainly the fool's approach to this issue, for which several U.S. adminsitrations have given good evidence in the past (Republican more prone to doing so, but the Democrats have their black eyes over this too).

The real idiots are the know-nothing arm-chair drones giving extremist advice and scapegoating (as usual) those who are working this professionally.

The part about letting the Egyptians work it out was good, though.

 

[trysail]

Thus far, the U.S. has managed to play its cards perfectly incorrectly thereby antagonizing everybody.

 

[sr71plt]

Thus far, the U.S. has managed to play its cards perfectly incorrectly thereby antagonizing everybody.

From your perspective perhaps. Which doesn't mean much. All you do is complain about what those who are actually working on issues are doing.

I think the world will manage without you.

 

[trysail]

Well, well, well:

Abbassi: There are clearly organized groups determined to destroy the country and wreck the economy. I hope we will find out who is behind this.

 

[JackLuis]

I don't think that we have many cards in this deal. There is no way for the US to do much but hope Mubarak can get new elections called and effected.

If he can call elections and keep the same constitution, or at least secular government. He will have succeeded.

 

[trysail]

A minor petroleum chokepoint ( mainly for Europe):

“A closure of the canal is unlikely at the moment, but it could be that we would see delays due to people working there having problems...”