The Recession of 2023

[JohnnySavage]

The looming recession is a bit different than past recessions; this one was/will be triggered by excessive government spending by current and previous administrations. It is also unique because the Fed, in response to inflation pressures, has been raising interest rates. As the 30 trillion in government debt turns over every 4 or 5 years, the debt will be refinanced at roughly triple the rate it is currently paying. That leaves a lot less money in the discretionary budget... unless the administration wants to borrow even more.

Buy bonds.

 

[JohnEBbad]

It is a trending topic over many sites. But, hey, the voters get what they vote for.

[I'm pretty much recession-proof at this point.]

They'll borrow (from China).

 

[Chobham]

T-bills is exactly what they're counting on. The various foreign nations are paying 0 to negative interest on their bonds which make the US Treasuries very attractive and that's their rationale for running up the debt. Of course in the long run that interest being paid out is going to bite someone in the ass.

 

[JohnnySavage]

With a divided Congress, the government is in a pickle.

 

[JohnEBbad]

Here you go: https://redstate.com/bonchie/2022/1...-spineless-republican-colleagues-wont-n676476

We should listen to Rand more.

 

[JohnnySavage]

Both sides spend too much. The only difference is on what they piss away money on.

Every year, the spend spend spend. Then at the end of the year, they say, "But we have to raise the debt limit to pay for what we already bought!!!" Fuckers should just stop buying stuff.

But I'm veering off topic; and I do love a tight thread.

 

[JohnEBbad]

It's still tight, but clearly your opening remarks should have referred to past, present and future piddles of politicians.

 

[JohnnySavage]

Someone will be along shortly to call me a stupid MAGA

 

[JohnEBbad]

Of course. And if you deny it, then you're "ashamed" that you're a MAGA.

I've been on that merry-go-round many times.

Probably happen again this morning.

 

[icanhelp1]

The interest payment on the debt.. will and is.. having a big impact on discretionary spending as JS has noted. Politicians will not go without, this will facilitate excuses for larger budget deficits, spending will feed on itself creating bigger deficits.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politic...pace-median-income-several-states-study-finds

The American rescue plan/ The inflation reduction act eliminates the incentive to work. Spending tons of taxpayer money to keep people out of work. We are starting to feel the effects.

 

[JohnEBbad]

I posted a link earlier this morning about our disappearing workforce. Now I need to remember where.

 

[JohnEBbad]

https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politi...e-labor-market-but-where-did-they-go-n1654267

It got some pushback...

 

[icanhelp1]

Someone will be along shortly to call me a stupid MAGA

Your spot on, I've made mention a few times that increasing the fed rate will increase the interest payments on the debt, inturn will decrease the piece of the pie *discretionary funding*.

 

[JohnnySavage]

The problem (as I see it) started with paying people to stay home. It dawned on the labor market that they didn't need to be a wage-slave to live. The entire economy has shifted from a 40-hour work week, to piece meal work that gives people more freedom.

Good for the people; bad for business. The US productivity will drop to levels consistent with the EU economies. That's a long-term shift and probably won't have any impact one way or another on the recession.

This recession will hit the government harder than the private sector.

 

[JohnEBbad]

Most of the people in government have the mindset that the debt doesn't matter and can be erased with a few keystrokes sans any economic repercussion.

 

[JohnEBbad]

The government is there to take the shots for us...

 

[JohnnySavage]

Despite being 90% Trump country where I live - government spending keeps a roof over the head and food on the table of a majority of the people. We've become dependent on Uncle Sugar.

 

[JohnEBbad]

Despite being 90% Trump country where I live - government spending keeps a roof over the head and food on the table of a majority of the people. We've become dependent on Uncle Sugar.

It's sad that it's come to this. A nation of dependents raising future dependents...

 

[JohnnySavage]

Definitely generational. This area was settled by Revolutionary soldiers that were given land in exchange for their service. Those family names are still prominent and all a lot of them have is the land. The same family names in constant trouble and on the government dole, are the same names as when i grew up here 50 years ago.

 

[icanhelp1]

The problem (as I see it) started with paying people to stay home. It dawned on the labor market that they didn't need to be a wage-slave to live. The entire economy has shifted from a 40-hour work week, to piece meal work that gives people more freedom.

Good for the people; bad for business. The US productivity will drop to levels consistent with the EU economies. That's a long-term shift and probably won't have any impact one way or another on the recession.

This recession will hit the government harder than the private sector.

Unfortunately the private sector will contract sending more people to the unemployment lines, more government spending, it may ease inflation but at what expense. The housing market market is a leading indicator for recession. Although real estate moguls are not predicting a housing crash, values will drop, bidding will drop and housing startups will also drop, couple that with supply chain issues and cost the housing market is predicted to tread water for a long time, very recessionary.

 

[JohnEBbad]

Tell me about generational. I grew up in Wyandotte County where poverty became a way of life for many families.

Instead of bettering themselves to earn more, they spent most of their time at the coffee shop discussing various schemes to get over on the government for increased largess.

 

[icanhelp1]

Tell me about generational. I grew up in Wyandotte County where poverty became a way of life for many families.

Instead of bettering themselves to earn more, they spent most of their time at the coffee shop discussing various schemes to get over on the government for increased largess.

Fraud within the recovery act is estimated to be in the *hundreds of billions*?

I remember when a billion dollars was a big deal!

 

[KeithD]

Chances are that the recession of 2023 isn't going to happen. Most certainly it won't be as bad as the Republican backbiters are propagandizing it will be.

 

[Lazaran]

I wonder if people started to say fuxk it after decades of republicans passing laws that allowed for nearly all the wealth to be funneled the top .5 percent.

The problem in this country, as in most, is that the very few “earners” are living grossly compensated and luxurious lives as the very many earners struggle with debt and substandard living conditions.

It has happened before, with predictable outcomes.

 

[DeluxAuto]

Someone will be along shortly to call me a stupid MAGA

You tried.