The Bradley Effect

[Boxlicker101]

Has this been brought up before? http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/13/obama.bradley.effect/index.html

Even though I favor McCain, I wouldn't want the presidency decided on this basis.

 

[DesertPirate]

Has this been brought up before? http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/13/obama.bradley.effect/index.html

Even though I favor McCain, I wouldn't want the presidency decided on this basis.

There are so many reasons to vote for McCain over Obama I hope this doesn't make the list.

 

[sr71plt]

No, the Bradley effect hasn't been brought up yet here that I can remember. As its effect on Bradley was about 8 percent and that's the separation between Obama and McCain in the latest CNN poll, it's starting to be mentioned again. I think there will be such an effect. Don't know that it will be as much as 8 percent, though--and times have changed since Bradley's election. There will probably be something of an effect going the other way now too (but I wouldn't think as much).

I would also expect that some of the vocal Democratic woman saying they will vote McCain rather than Obama because Clinton didn't get the nod will actually vote Obama, though.

 

[SweetPrettyAss]

Do you think there could be a similar effect relating to women? Maybe they could call it the Ferraro Effect.

 

[Belegon]

I've mentioned the Bradley Effect, if not here in conversation with people from here. I am worried about it but do not feel it will be ANYWHERE close to the factor it was in CA in 1982. I suspect it will be, at most, 2-3 points and will be limited to certain states... and many of those are going to McCain no matter what, anyway.

 

[Liar]

I read something about the possibility of a reverse Bradley effect. Something like people waving ther conservative flag not to piss off grandpa and then secretly voting for the new guy anyway.

Maybe that would not even the regular effect out, but at least milden it a bit.

I also read that the Bradley effect was more an effect of crappy polling demographics than anything else. So I dunno.

 

[impressive]

I read something about the possibility of a reverse Bradley effect. Something like people waving ther conservative flag not to piss off grandpa and then secretly voting for the new guy anyway.

This, I believe, will be a factor with California's Prop 8.

 

[emap]

One can hope not anyway.

Honestly I don't see it making a dent in the election, granted obama is not a good old white guy. There is a big old thing in his favor though, he is not Bush and he is not a Republican. Think about it, anytime the nation is upset with the current president, the guy from the other party is elected. Doesn't have to be much to be upset about, look at Bush, besides the incredibly questionable outcome of the election and the probable help he got in Florida, he came in after Clinton, the guy who got blowjobs from an aide in the oval office.

How he managed to keep it as close as it was going to Florida, I mean seriously, if Clinton was not a factor in the voting I don't see Bush getting more than like 30% of the votes. The man is not a public speaker in any sense of the word. He was helped by the other guy not going on a vigorous campaign, but when all is said and done, Bush more or less got elected because Clinton cheated on his wife and lied about it.

I'm rather perplexed on why McCain is even running this year. Granted he isn't the most wonderful of public speakers himself, but he is still one of the better overall people to run in recent memory, and he must know he has a snowballs chance in hell of getting elected.

i'm not a McCain backer or anything, he happens to be a congressman from Arizona and I get to see him on the news and stuff on occassion. Never saw him change his mind about anything, until this year anyway but I suppose the whole campaigning to be elected president screws the whole sticking to the guns thing.

 

[JAMESBJOHNSON]

In 1965 I helped a black guy get elected to our city council. He was the first black elected to anything in Florida, and he beat a field of 3-4 white guys. People arent stupid when it comes to their economic welfare. People do rise above their prejudices.

On the otherhand, Obama isnt Bill Blackshear. With Bill Blackshear you got the 'Bill" before you got the 'black.' With Obama, and others, you get hit with their blackness first. Gays are notorious for it...I call it the I'M QUEER, AND I'M HERE effect. My queer neighbor's dog wears a rainbow scarf, and her mailbox sports a rainbow flag. Elaine forces you to view the Queer Informercial before you can deal with Elaine.

Obama and Michelle do the same. And it turns people off.

McCain is sooooo damaged that Obama's numbers should be much higher than they are.

I suspect Obama knows that a chunk of his numbers is bullshit. The outcome will be closer than most think.

 

[sr71plt]

I suspect Obama knows that a chunk of his numbers is bullshit. The outcome will be closer than most think.

Oh, Amicus doesn't think it will be close. He apparently is revising his 90-percent landslide for McCain to 95 percent.

 

[JAMESBJOHNSON]

SR71PLT

McCain is such a loser youre forced to wonder why Obama isnt kicking his ass. McCain was DOA the day he was nominated. McCain is Reagan with Alzheimers. But Obama is statistically tied with McCain. If the score is close the GOP will mug Obama while the Pelosi Choir is singing WE ARE THE WORLD.

 

[voluptuary_manque]

This, I believe, will be a factor with California's Prop 8.

I sure the heck hope so!

 

[theAdviserMe]

I hope that the November 4 election will never be decided based primarily on race...Americans should have been matured by now...or am I just wishing?

 

[Safe_Bet]

I hope that the November 4 election will never be decided based primarily on race...Americans should have been matured by now...or am I just wishing?

Why do you have spam in your sig?

 

[epiphany65]

SR71PLT

McCain is such a loser youre forced to wonder why Obama isnt kicking his ass. McCain was DOA the day he was nominated. McCain is Reagan with Alzheimers. But Obama is statistically tied with McCain. If the score is close the GOP will mug Obama while the Pelosi Choir is singing WE ARE THE WORLD.

The latest poll I saw has Obama ahead of McCain by 10 points, with a margin of error of 3 or 3.5 points. How is that statistically tied?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dy...2008101202333.html?sid=ST2008101300010&s_pos=

 

[Boxlicker101]

The latest poll I saw has Obama ahead of McCain by 10 points, with a margin of error of 3 or 3.5 points. How is that statistically tied?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dy...2008101202333.html?sid=ST2008101300010&s_pos=

Different polls have different results. Newsweek and MSNBC have Obama way ahear, but CNN and The Rasmussen and Gallup polls have it much closer. The former two seem to be manipulating the figures or the questions, while the latter are highly reputable.

I mean, if you ask: "Are you a racist pig or are you going to vote for Obama?" the results are pretty certain. I'm exaggerating there, but I think you get the idea.

 

[epiphany65]

Different polls have different results. Newsweek and MSNBC have Obama way ahear, but CNN and The Rasmussen and Gallup polls have it much closer. The former two seem to be manipulating the figures or the questions, while the latter are highly reputable.

I mean, if you ask: "Are you a racist pig or are you going to vote for Obama?" the results are pretty certain. I'm exaggerating there, but I think you get the idea.

I know what you're saying. Mark Twain said "There are three types of lies: lies, damn lies and statistics." I don't always trust polls and stats. at face value. That having been said, the latest CNN poll has Obama ahead by 8 points. I don't consider that "...much closer."

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/06/poll.of.polls/index.html

 

[JAMESBJOHNSON]

EPIPHANY

Most of the Presidential elections end up being close in terms of vote count, but blow-outs in the Electoral College. I dont think Clinton ever cracked 50% of the popular vote.

 

[epiphany65]

EPIPHANY

Most of the Presidential elections end up being close in terms of vote count, but blow-outs in the Electoral College. I dont think Clinton ever cracked 50% of the popular vote.

You're right, he didn't... 49% and 43%.

 

[Boxlicker101]

EPIPHANY

Most of the Presidential elections end up being close in terms of vote count, but blow-outs in the Electoral College. I dont think Clinton ever cracked 50% of the popular vote.

Against Bush the Elder, he did not. There was a third candidate, Ross Perot, who probably won the election for Clinton. Against Dole, he did.

 

[sr71plt]

SR71PLT

McCain is such a loser youre forced to wonder why Obama isnt kicking his ass. McCain was DOA the day he was nominated. McCain is Reagan with Alzheimers. But Obama is statistically tied with McCain. If the score is close the GOP will mug Obama while the Pelosi Choir is singing WE ARE THE WORLD.

A. McCain isn't statistically tied with Obama in any of the polls I've seen (whatever they are worth--but you brought it up).

B. People vote against someone as often as they vote for someone. And many people vote party general ideology no matter what. And then there are people who vote a single issue. Life's not simple.

We won't know who mugged who--or even if there was a mugging--until a day or two after the election.

 

[Boxlicker101]

Against Bush the Elder, he did not. There was a third candidate, Ross Perot, who probably won the election for Clinton. Against Dole, he did.

Okay, I was mistaken. I didn't realize 1996 was that close.

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/national.php?f=0&year=1996

 

[JAMESBJOHNSON]

EPIPHANY

Yep, so Clinton got 370 and 379 electoral votes while the opposition got 168 and 159. Very lopsided.

 

[Belegon]

Latest Gallop poll:

Obama 51%, McCain 42%

Give it a break, Box.

 

[Liar]

If you want statistics, and a good collection of various polls, as well as a fairly fair assessment of how reliable the different pollers are, this is a pretty good site.

Sure, guy's a Barack supporter, but first and foremost a huge statistics geek, and everything is done by the number, so to speak. I think he's a major name in the field of baseball stats, or something like that.