Syria: What now?

After 13 years of civil war, Bashar al-Assad and his government are gone. The ascendant rebel force are Islamists with (past) ties to al-Qaeda, backed by Turkey (Assad was backed by Iran). Meanwhile, the northeast is still controlled by the mostly Kurdish state of the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, a/k/a Rojava. The Israelis have occupied a swathe of Syrian territory around the Golan Heights, ostensibly to keep any hostile forces away from Israel's border.

And apparently Assad's Prime Minister, Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali, is still Prime Minister for the moment, heading a transitional government.

So what happens next? Can a situation like in post-Hussein Iraq, with religious/ethnic strife and ethnic cleansing, be avoided?
Turkey will take the lead. Syrian borders as we know them today may be redrawn.
 
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What, an independent Rojava? Or Rojava annexed to Turkey?
The original borders was a mistake to start with. There are too many different cultural and religious groups with opposing views to be governed in the same space by a single government.
 
The original borders was a mistake to start with. There are too many different cultural and religious groups with opposing views to be governed in the same space by a single government.
You could say the same of Iraq, but it has been preserved as a unit.
 
Ominous signs.

Syria’s new government is facing backlash after announcing changes to the school curriculum, including introducing what some critics say is an Islamist slant to teaching.

The changes, published in a list of amendments on the education ministry’s official Facebook page, include changing the phrases “path of goodness” to “Islamic path,” and “those who have are damned and have gone astray” to “Jews and Christians” – which pertains to an ultra-conservative interpretation of a verse in Islam’s holy book, the Quran.

The modifications also redefine the word “martyr,” from someone who died for the homeland to someone who sacrificed themselves “for the sake of God.”

Some chapters were removed entirely, the list shows, including a chapter on “the origins and evolution of life.”
 
Back in the midterm of 2024, Syria has transferred its ancient relics to museums of China. After visiting the exhibition, one of my friends said there would be a war in Syria soon.
 
Officially they're there to fight ISIS, but, well, you know . . .
The United States pays Syrians to house the worst of the worst ISIS terrorists in a special prison in Syria. Orange Hitler declared his "90-day freeze" on government payments, the guards have not been paid in two weeks. They walked off the job. ISIS prisoners walked out free. The world is a little less safe due to Orange Hitler and his goon squad.
 
Encouraging news: The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces that control the Northeast have worked out a deal with the new government.

A Kurdish-led militia alliance which controls north-eastern Syria has signed a deal to integrate all military and civilian institutions into the Syrian state, the country's presidency says.
The agreement, which includes a complete cessation of hostilities, says the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) will hand over control of the region's border posts, airport, and vital oil and gas fields.
It also recognises the Kurdish minority as "an integral part of the Syrian state" and guarantees "the rights of all Syrians to representation and participation in the political process".
SDF commander Mazloum Abdi called the deal a "real opportunity to build a new Syria".
"We are committed to building a better future that guarantees the rights of all Syrians and fulfils their aspirations for peace and dignity," he wrote on X after signing the deal in Damascus on Monday alongside interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa.
The deal represents a major step towards Sharaa's goal to unify the fractured country after his Sunni Islamist group led the rebel offensive that overthrew president Bashar al-Assad in December and ended 13 years of devastating civil war.
It could also de-escalate the SDF's conflict with neighbouring Turkey and Turkish-backed Syrian former rebel factions allied to the government, which are trying to push the alliance out of areas near the border.
 
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