Shorting UK plc (General Election)

[ishtat]

A couple of days ago I placed a bet with Ladbrookes on the outcome of the UK election. I bet 1000 pounds that a member (any member) of the Labour party would be the next PM.

My reasoning is that if Labour does form a government my remaining business in UK will be devalued by much more than 1000 pounds, thus my bet will be a solace.

If I lose my bet my business financial loss will be far less than the loss of the bet.

If the Conservatives (Tory's) win outright I shall be delighted to lose the 1000 pounds.

Most likely result I think is Tories to win most seats but a Labour/Liberal Democratic coalition will take government.

I also took a 100 pound bet that the Tories would have most seats with between 310 and 320.

Conclusion. I hope I lose the lot!!

Anyone else care to guess how many seats each party will win?

 

[Handley_Page]

I think the Tories will has insufficient seats for an absolute majority but will have the most MPs.

Then we'll have the fun: Coalition government !

 

[amicus]

From way outside looking in, a Coalition seems the best bet...but, hell, a thousand pounds ain't chicken feed!



amicus

 

[ishtat]

From way outside looking in, a Coalition seems the best bet...but, hell, a thousand pounds ain't chicken feed!



amicus

Basically whoever one votes for in UK a social democratic government will be the outcome. All parties focus on trying to command the centre but in the end the markets will call the tune in UK. Debt is so high and government expenditure so wasteful it will have to be reined in harshly.

Labour always start with the best of intentions but every Labour government in the 1920's, 1945-51, 1964-70,1974 -1979 and 1996 to 2010 has ended in an economic mess, always caused through over spending and the expansion of government.

I don't expect the Tories to be much better but the markets do and with them in I won't lose so much!

In the past 5 years we have reduced staff at our UK operation by 35 (60%) but kept numbers in a slightly larger operation steady in the US and expanded Hong Kong to the same size as USA. UK under the recent government became too expensive a place to do business.

 

[IsabellaKing]

I don't expect the Tories to be much better but the markets do and with them in I won't lose so much!

How much would you pay me to vote tory?

 

[amicus]

It is always money, isn't it? I do not say that in a derogatory manner, merely a realistic one, as the 'bottom line', make or break, is inherent in any economic system.

I sometimes detest my conclusion that a gradual decline is inevitable in GB, what I consider the last, best hope for European solvency.

Like it or not, the 'ethnic' heritage of Germany is once again building to be the strongest nation, economically at least, in the European theatre, and for better or worse, the tail of the failing socialist countries will not wag the dog of Germany.

If you think otherwise; please advise?

Amicus

 

[oggbashan]

The elephant in the room in UK politics is that we can't afford to be in Afghanistan.

Apart from the continual loss of good troops, the cost is beyond the ability of our economy. We have the second largest commitment there, a long way behind the US, but still significantly greater than Germany, the third largest contingent.

Both the Labour and Conservative parties are committed to remaining in Afghanistan until the job is done but neither have said how we will afford the financial cost. The human cost is rising. We lose troops almost everyday.

What is NOT said is that we lose and use equipment. Some of our equipment isn't fit for the task in Afghanistan and that lack of suitability costs lives. Our Defence procurement programme is almost as convoluted and expensive as the Pentagon's and has outspent its budget. Their plans for future expenditure just aren't affordable. Something has to give - soon.

Og

 

[Liar]

I think the Tories will has insufficient seats for an absolute majority but will have the most MPs.

Then we'll have the fun: Coalition government !

How about minority government? Does UK constitution allow for that?

It's pretty common in other European countries where the parlament is proportioal, with a multitude of parties on the seats.

 

[oggbashan]

How about minority government? Does UK constitution allow for that?

It's pretty common in other European countries where the parlament is proportioal, with a multitude of parties on the seats.

Yes, but in the UK it usually leads to another election within weeks because the other parties vote down some significant proposal by the minority government.

Og

 

[driphoney]

The elephant in the room in UK politics is that we can't afford to be in Afghanistan.

Apart from the continual loss of good troops, the cost is beyond the ability of our economy. We have the second largest commitment there, a long way behind the US, but still significantly greater than Germany, the third largest contingent.

Both the Labour and Conservative parties are committed to remaining in Afghanistan until the job is done but neither have said how we will afford the financial cost. The human cost is rising. We lose troops almost everyday.

What is NOT said is that we lose and use equipment. Some of our equipment isn't fit for the task in Afghanistan and that lack of suitability costs lives. Our Defence procurement programme is almost as convoluted and expensive as the Pentagon's and has outspent its budget. Their plans for future expenditure just aren't affordable. Something has to give - soon.

Og

I had trouble finding numbers on the web that weren't directly tied to an agenda. Frankly, I'm not always the best web-searcher, while not citing all their sources these look pretty accurate. I don't think (but not sure) that The Guardian would be considered a pro-war publication. These are not the most up-to-date numbers, but the best I found. I would love to see better, more detailed data.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2009/oct/05/afghanistan-spending-per-head-uk-us-canada-defence

casualty-monitor.org UK casualty rates

http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2009/sep/17/afghanistan-casualties-dead-wounded-british-data#data

If you click around on The Guardian links, there are several other stats.

 

[ishtat]

How about minority government? Does UK constitution allow for that?

It's pretty common in other European countries where the parlament is proportioal, with a multitude of parties on the seats.

All a candidate for PM has to do is be able to command a majority in the House of Commons.

Thus one quite likely alternative is for Labour and the Lib Dems to form a coalition to keep the largest party, the Torys out of power. An almost certain pre- requisite would be that Gordon Brown would have to resign as leader of Labour.

 

[ishtat]

The elephant in the room in UK politics is that we can't afford to be in Afghanistan.


Og

Og the Social Welfare budget is four or five times greater than the defence budget - even if you exclude health and aged pensions.

However, I agree that UK's military should be resticted to a 200 mile zone, the rest is grandstanding.

 

[Songcatcher]

A nation divided.

Fight amongst yourselves.

 

[Songcatcher]

So, UKIP was kept off TV during campaign, and it's leader's airplane fliped over?

Is BBC reporting riots in Greece?

Eh?

 

[Handley_Page]

So, UKIP was kept off TV during campaign, and it's leader's air-plane flipped over?

Is BBC reporting riots in Greece?

Eh?

Yes, both BBC & ITV have reported the riots in Greece.

Please note that the PM is the leader of the party in the Commons with the absolute majority (326 seats), not the party with the most MPs.

 

[oggbashan]

...

Please note that the PM is the leader of the party in the Commons with the absolute majority (326 seats), not the party with the most MPs.

The party or grouping with 326 or more seats.

The leader of the party with the most seats (but less than 326) can form a minority government IF the other parties can't agree to work in a coalition.

Minority governments are not unusual in other European countries. They can survive as long as the other parties do not unite against the minority.

Labour and the Liberal Democrats added together do not reach 326. They can't form a majority grouping without including some others such as Plaid Cymru and the Scottish Nationalists. The price demanded to form such a grouping might be too much for Labour to pay.

The price demanded by the Liberal Democrats to work with the Conservatives could be higher than the Conservatives could pay; the internal party mechanics (the so-called triple-lock) of getting the Liberal Democrats to work with anyone might make such a deal impossible.

The Liberal Democrats have worked with Labour before. Each time the Liberal Democrats (or Liberals if you go back far enough) lost far more than they gained. However the Conservatives are NOT natural allies for the Liberal Democrats.

Watch this space.

Og

 

[voluptuary_manque]

The party or grouping with 326 or more seats.

The leader of the party with the most seats (but less than 326) can form a minority government IF the other parties can't agree to work in a coalition.

Minority governments are not unusual in other European countries. They can survive as long as the other parties do not unite against the minority.

Labour and the Liberal Democrats added together do not reach 326. They can't form a majority grouping without including some others such as Plaid Cymru and the Scottish Nationalists. The price demanded to form such a grouping might be too much for Labour to pay.

The price demanded by the Liberal Democrats to work with the Conservatives could be higher than the Conservatives could pay; the internal party mechanics (the so-called triple-lock) of getting the Liberal Democrats to work with anyone might make such a deal impossible.

The Liberal Democrats have worked with Labour before. Each time the Liberal Democrats (or Liberals if you go back far enough) lost far more than they gained. However the Conservatives are NOT natural allies for the Liberal Democrats.

Watch this space.

Og

While I agree that you point is true, I cannot help but believe that if Clegg were offered a real Cabinet position (not one of the major ones of course) they might go for it. As you said, watch this space.

 

[manyeyedhydra]

A Lib-Con coalition could potentially be really good for Britain. Vince Cable as chancellor, Clegg with another decent cabinet role. The traditionally good fiscal management of a conservative government to pull the economy out of a hole, but with a solid rump of LibDem MP's to serve as conscience and curb the "nasty" tendencies.

I don't think it will happen though. Lib Dems would want electoral reform (understandable given they got over 20% of the vote but less than 10% of the seats) and the Cons would never offer it as they know it would mean they'd never be in power again.

Thankfully a Lib-Lab coalition doesn't make a majority, so Britain is at least saved the ghastly prospect of Brown lumbering on and dragging the country down an even bigger hole.

I suspect the Cons will try and make a fist of it as a minority government, get the right wing press to bleat a lot about how all the tough decisions are being held up by the other parties and then force another election at the end of the year or early next year to get a working majority.

I'm disappointed the LibDems did so badly. At one point it looked like there might be the possibility of some genuine change.

 

[ishtat]

A Lib-Con coalition could potentially be really good for Britain. Vince Cable as chancellor, Clegg with another decent cabinet role. The traditionally good fiscal management of a conservative government to pull the economy out of a hole, but with a solid rump of LibDem MP's to serve as conscience and curb the "nasty" tendencies.

I don't think it will happen though. Lib Dems would want electoral reform (understandable given they got over 20% of the vote but less than 10% of the seats) and the Cons would never offer it as they know it would mean they'd never be in power again.

Thankfully a Lib-Lab coalition doesn't make a majority, so Britain is at least saved the ghastly prospect of Brown lumbering on and dragging the country down an even bigger hole.

I suspect the Cons will try and make a fist of it as a minority government, get the right wing press to bleat a lot about how all the tough decisions are being held up by the other parties and then force another election at the end of the year or early next year to get a working majority.

I'm disappointed the LibDems did so badly. At one point it looked like there might be the possibility of some genuine change.

I think that both Labour and Tories would oppose proportional representation as the idea of community representation would be compromised. However, I cannot understand why the Tories oppose a single transferrable preferance. All you have to do is number preferences 1234 etc with the 2nd preferences of the lowest candidates reallocated first and so on. If you make it optional the voter has retained 1st past the post.

 

[AmerikanPatriot]

Anybody who doesn't vote for the BNP is a racialist traitor to Britannia.

 

[rgraham666]

Anybody who doesn't vote for the BNP is a racialist traitor to Britannia.

Quickest arrival on my ignore list ever!

 

[AmerikanPatriot]

Fuck You!!!!!!!!

 

[Songcatcher]

http://balboamediagroup.files.wordpress.com/2008/10/graph31.png

Good luck.

 

[ishtat]

While I agree that you point is true, I cannot help but believe that if Clegg were offered a real Cabinet position (not one of the major ones of course) they might go for it. As you said, watch this space.

The smart move might be for Cameron to offer the Chancellor(Treasury Secretary) Job to the Lib Dems. Cable their spokesman is well respected whilst the Tory candidate for the job Osborne is perceived as a lightweight.

It would also have the political advantage of tying the Lib Dems in to some necessary but unpleasant decisions on increased tax and reduced government spending.

But I am not convinced that Cameron is overly smart.

 

[Handley_Page]

Anybody who doesn't vote for the BNP is a racialist traitor to Britannia.

Please keep your American Patriotic views to yourself, and don't poke your nose into the UK without knowing something about it.