Russia is right: The West promised not to enlarge NATO & these promises were broken

[Pad_Foot]

If Russia were to attack Turkey from the rear, would Greece help?

Stupid joke
Added.. Turkey is in bed with Putin

 

[ishtat]

If Russia were to attack Turkey from the rear, would Greece help?

Look at a map- a post 1990 map! Then consider that Turkey has the next biggest army in NATO after the USA, (and they are pretty good) and last, that Southern Russia is full of stroppy Sunni muslims whose loyalty to Moscow is no sure thing..

The Greeks haven't counted for anything for 2,000 years.

 

[Pad_Foot]

Look at a map- a post 1990 map! Then consider that Turkey has the next biggest army in NATO after the USA, (and they are pretty good) and last, that Southern Russia is full of stroppy Sunni muslims whose loyalty to Moscow is no sure thing..

The Greeks haven't counted for anything for 2,000 years.

Good .. so leave the Greeks the fuck out of it

 

[GothTalk]

If Russia were to attack Turkey from the rear, would Greece help?

Greece???

LOL....only if they had all their EU buddies riding with and the USA running point.

 

[Pad_Foot]

US running point?
Ha!
Talk to the Kurds about how that works out!
Or the Afghanis who helped us!
No one will ever help us again

 

[The_Trouvere]

The Russians have reasons to oppose the enlargement o NATO.

Within a period of thirty years in the first half of the twentieth century Russia was subjected to two devastating invasions. Russia has many natural resources, and no natural boundaries. Russia will always be a tempting prize for a potential aggressor.

In order to understand how the Russian people feel about the enlargement of NATO, Americans should imagine that the Soviet Union still existed, and that it was the United States that collapsed. With the polarization of our politics, the recent rise in crime, and the fragility of our economy, that should be possible to imagine. The fall of the United States would consist of the division of the United States into two or more countries with declining standards of living, and rising crime rates.

Now, let us imagine that the Soviet Union is enlisting Latin American countries, including Mexico, into the Warsaw Pact. How we would feel is how the Russian people feel.

 

[The_Trouvere]

Look at a map- a post 1990 map! Then consider that Turkey has the next biggest army in NATO after the USA, (and they are pretty good) and last, that Southern Russia is full of stroppy Sunni muslims whose loyalty to Moscow is no sure thing..

The Greeks haven't counted for anything for 2,000 years.

The Greeks preserved the Eastern Roman Empire, also called the Byzantine Empire, until 1453.

 

[Champakian]

We promised not to expand and then they did into Georgia and Crimea (and now increasing activity in Kazakhstan).

This is why nations, their leaders and people want to join an organization that will
protect them in the face of homogeny by force.

At this points, especially with the China-Iran alliances, all bets are off.

It's simple self-defense from Putin, Xi and the Mullahs' tyranny.

 

[ll74]

Putin's an asshole who will do anything to suppress Democracy in nations that he still has influence on.

 

[pecksniff]

Greece???

LOL....only if they had all their EU buddies riding with and the USA running point.

It's a pun . . . Greece . . . grease . . . attack from behind . . . never mind.

 

[pecksniff]

Within a period of thirty years in the first half of the twentieth century Russia was subjected to two devastating invasions. Russia has many natural resources, and no natural boundaries. Russia will always be a tempting prize for a potential aggressor.

They should worry more about Chinese designs on Siberia.

 

[LupusDei]

In order to understand how the Russian people feel about the enlargement of NATO, Americans should imagine that the Soviet Union still existed, and that it was the United States that collapsed.

Now, let us imagine that the Soviet Union is enlisting Latin American countries, including Mexico, into the Warsaw Pact. How we would feel is how the Russian people feel.

It's worse than that, much worse actually.

Let me tell a story of crazy alternative history (and take in mind I have never been at that side of planet, so it is not meant to make sense, just analogy).

So, in 1987 U.S. economy crashed to the levels not unlike great depression. By 1992 it split in something like 15 parts, many single states and few unions of states each declaring independence within a year. Canada join Warshaw Pact in 1996; Russian commentary of that is interpreted as promises it would be the only direct admission in the alliance from North America.

About the same time, a former CIA agent comes to power in Washington, and most of former U.S. form a new federation, reuniting most former states. Texas remains closely associated ally of it, but declare Texan a state language, not to be confused by English. Likewise do another large chunk of East coast, let's call it Great Virginia Union for no reason, an unitary union consisting of former Virginia, West Virginia, both Carolinas, Georgia, Florida, and, curiously enough, Alabama. GVU give up nuclear weapons they can't afford anyway against security guarantees signed collectively by NUSA, Russia and China.

While unaffiliated California is moored in internal civil war, the independent statelets of Vermont, Connecticut and Massachusetts, together with New Hampshire and Rhode Island, join Warshaw Pact in 2004, swept in expansion round that includes Mexico, Cuba and Panama.

Most or every former U.S. state not yet named, including Maine, form a formally federal -- but effectively unitary -- New USA, with a new constitution of 2006 giving the CIA agent in White House unlimited presidency terms after an election globally decried as not exactly free. His militarily dictatorship however is an economic success at least for the ruling billionaire class that only gets ever more wealthy through all of his. He also publicly decries the tragedy of dissolution of the U.S. and promises to rebuild it by any means necessary, and proceed to modernize the neglected military.

By 2008 California has reestablished fragile democracy and its left wing openly discuss joining Warshaw Pact. NUSA reacts by invading and occupying Sacramento area, justified by help to local rebels, in what amounts to humiliating military defeat for Californians. The world insists Sacramento remains part of California, but the frozen conflict effectively block California's chances to join Warshaw Pact.

In 2014 there's popular revolution in the Great Virginia, resulting in ousting elected pro-NUSA president and a sharp political turn toward Warshaw Pact. It's conceivable lease of NUSA military bases in Great Virginia won't be renewed, including, but not limited to, Cape Canaveral. NUSA reacts by brilliant, no-shots-fired takeover and subsequent annexing of most of Florida (although local support is suspected to be gain by display of force and the referendum of dubious legality rigged), while simultaneously inciting armed rebellion in West Virginia.

Not unlike Californians at Sacramento, GVU forces suffer a humiliating defeat in what mostly amounts to long range artillery duels against West Virginian rebels mysteriously taken hold of significant amounts of heavy weaponry. Similar plot in Alabama fails to gain local support and is swiftly dealt with by Virginian nationalist volunteer forces disregarding direct orders to retreat. Subsequent land blockade of Florida render it effectively an island.

Despite obvious, NUSA deny they're directly involved with the rebellion, even after an airliner over West Virginia was shot down by a rocket GVU couldn't possibly have in their arsenal. West Virginia's pledge to fully join NUSA is likewise denied, leaving fragile ceasefire in place. Inspected by UN commission with no powers that is routinely denied entry in West Virginia, the violations are numerous and there's almost daily low intensity fire exchange on the line of contact. Despite that a mining operation of a certain billionaire remains operational in no-man's land in the middle.

Warshaw Pact react to the situation by pointed personal economic sanctions against prominent NUSA figures, and on the ground by finally responding to pleas of Vermont and Massachusetts to dislocate Russian units there. Each get only a few thousand, but the anger and shrieking from NUSA is worth the trolling. They also start arms deliveries to GVU, initially promising to only give "defensive" weapons, but soon enough sending anti tank missiles and armed drones.

In late 2021 satellite imagery reveals significant new NUSA troop and equipment concentrations all around GVU borders. It is concluded by Warshaw Pact that a new, full scale invasion is imminent, and proactively declare a possibility of near complete economic blockade of NUSA would they act on what they seem prepared for. NUSA reacts by demanding "iron clad and concrete" immediate guarantees that neither California nor GVU would ever be admitted into Warshaw Pact. The initial answer is a resolving no, they could be when they wanted and the time be right.

***

Yes, I fully admit from Russian perspective, especially believing their own propaganda it is a grave situation on the verge of existential. Does that justify military aggression that may easily spillover in global scale? Does the self governance of those small states caught in the middle worth nothing?

 

[pecksniff]

Texas remains closely associated ally of it, but declare Texan a state language, not to be confused by English.

Not much of a stretch.

 

[pecksniff]

What does Putin actually want out of this? Is there any part of Ukraine he covets, that he does not already have?

 

[ll74]

What does Putin actually want out of this? Is there any part of Ukraine he covets, that he does not already have?

He doesn't want Democracy on his doorstep. He also has a pipeline through the country.

The question you should ask yourself would be why he has troops ready to ride into the country if he gets no benefit out of it......that, in itself, would easily show you that you're missing something about the whole setup

 

[LupusDei]

What does Putin actually want out of this? Is there any part of Ukraine he covets, that he does not already have?

The existential threat he faces is a philosophical one. It is unacceptable that Russian people -- and he sees Ukrainians as Russian people -- reach happiness outside of Moscow's control, mostly because it denounces unnecessity of such, thus leading to collapse of Russia itself. Therefore independent Ukraine is a existential threat to Russia by existing. Therefore it must be subjugated or destroyed.

Yes, that's rather insane logic, and only possible from position of entitled power with isn't itself seen as questionable by the power itself.

On the practicality of things, the very minimum would be to restore water flow in the Crimean canal. Land bridge to the peninsula's neck would be nice too. Ah, and the factories that once produced engines for Russian military transport planes, among others, those engines they have left with are approaching end of life with no replacement. Finally, a declaration Crimea is legal part of Russia by Ukrainian government no matter how coerced or faked is a must.

 

[pecksniff]

Is there any realistic chance that Putin and his party will fall from power?

 

[oggbashan]

Is there any realistic chance that Putin and his party will fall from power?

Not while his government arrests and imprisons all other contenders and only approved people can stand in elections. Russian elections are not free and fair and never have been.

 

[pecksniff]

Not while his government arrests and imprisons all other contenders and only approved people can stand in elections. Russian elections are not free and fair and never have been.

The Communists did all that, but it didn't save them.

 

[Wrong Element]

What does Putin actually want out of this? Is there any part of Ukraine he covets, that he does not already have?

Sabre-rattling to distract a restless populace didn't get invented by the Russians.

 

[LupusDei]

Is there any realistic chance that Putin and his party will fall from power?

It's complicated. He's extremely afraid of a "color" revolution, even if there's seemingly little current pretext for one, but sometimes such happen explosive over some dumb random trigger (see Kazakhstan and fuel prices). He also seem to believe those can be organized and worried Hillary Clinton would attempt to engineer one (that's how you got Trump). Yet the populace mostly express resigned support. Russians cherish their autocrats with fatalism. Latent dissent exists, but is mostly self-censured thus immeasurable (one of the great drawbacks of closed societies).

The obvious way how such strongmen cult possessions change is by death. He has no real ideology and openly ridicules strict principles and such isn't conductive to lasting, values based party building. And it isn't hard to see his inner clique is obviously both shrinking and aging. He may have four or more body doubles, and one persistent conspiracy theory claim the original been long dead, but even collective-Putin can't claim practical immortality.

It's not true they never had free elections, but there's been just a few, all in twenty century. Then, change of power in Russia had exceptionally rarely happened without violence, ranging from court assassinations to full blown revolutions. To stay alive on it's throne is a constant fight. The simplest plan is just to outlive those guys and hope for the best, but theres no guarantees the next be better.

What happens right now in Kazakhstan is a very interesting laboratory on this. In that country collective-Nazarbayev was and is widely used political term, and it was believed that Tokayev was rendered one of its bodies. The transition with timely retirement of the "constitutional" Leader of the Nation seemed to be successful... for all but two years. What the true drift of Tokayev would be (people who knew him from the nineties say he's used to be a democrat at heart) after he's done with current round of state terror may have consequences to Russia and Belarus. Those two are linked in fate more than either would like; that's why the recent unrest in Belarus was clamped down so heavy handed (for relatively European context).

Russia itself may even still disintegrate further too. Not much of a chance, but not to be ruled out, especially if there's major turmoil at power transition.

 

[pecksniff]

The obvious way how such strongmen cult possessions change is by death. He has no real ideology and openly ridicules strict principles and such isn't conductive to lasting, values based party building. And it isn't hard to see his inner clique is obviously both shrinking and aging. He may have four or more body doubles, and one persistent conspiracy theory claim the original been long dead, but even collective-Putin can't claim practical immortality.

Then, there is no post-Putin future for the All-Russia People's Front?

Russia itself may even still disintegrate further too. Not much of a chance, but not to be ruled out, especially if there's major turmoil at power transition.

I recall a scene in one of Martin Cruz Smith's Arkady Renko novels, where Renko is in Siberia, and a local tells him that someday they might have their own country, "tell Moscow to fuck off." Is there any real movement of that kind?

 

[oggbashan]

...



I recall a scene in one of Martin Cruz Smith's Arkady Renko novels, where Renko is in Siberia, and a local tells him that someday they might have their own country, "tell Moscow to fuck off." Is there any real movement of that kind?

Yes and no. There was a candidate for a local mayor position who had popular support but was not of Putin's party. He was arrested and disqualified from standing because he was a 'criminal'. After the election, the fake charges were dropped. There is considerable resentment in Siberia against Moscow dictats but Moscow isn't about to let Siberia secede because it is a major part of Russia and has many mineral resources.

 

[pecksniff]

Yes and no. There was a candidate for a local mayor position who had popular support but was not of Putin's party. He was arrested and disqualified from standing because he was a 'criminal'. After the election, the fake charges were dropped. There is considerable resentment in Siberia against Moscow dictats but Moscow isn't about to let Siberia secede because it is a major part of Russia and has many mineral resources.

And if they seceded from Russia -- who would defend them from China?

 

[LupusDei]

Then, there is no post-Putin future for the All-Russia People's Front?

As a rather right wing populist party in multiparty politics? Maybe... As a sole powerhouse, rather unlikely despite optics. It isn't quite as all encompassing as typical one party systems use to be. The brand of Putin's "controlled democracy" demand preservation of perverted political diversity, controlled opposition, that should perpetually lose, but exist. It's by design metastable system, kinked out of the equilibrium it may produce genuinely unpredictable outcomes. In latest election Navalny dissident organisation agitated for Communists, not for agreement in politics, but purely for possible disruption, and indeed, Putin had to openly cheat by stuffing online vote to counterac it.

I recall a scene in one of Martin Cruz Smith's Arkady Renko novels, where Renko is in Siberia, and a local tells him that someday they might have their own country, "tell Moscow to fuck off." Is there any real movement of that kind?

Well... let's say, Yakutia...

Sakha, also known as Yakutia or Yakutiya,[9][a] is a republic of Russia. It is situated in the Russian Far East, along the Arctic Ocean, with a population of roughly 1 million.[10] Sakha comprises half of the area of its governing Far Eastern Federal District, and is the world's largest country subdivision, covering over 3,083,523 square kilometers (1,190,555 sq mi).[11] Yakutsk, which is the world's coldest large city,[12] is its capital and largest city. The republic has a reputation for an extreme and severe climate, with the lowest temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere being recorded in Verkhoyansk and Oymyakon, and regular winter averages commonly dipping below −35 °C (−31 °F) in Yakutsk. The hypercontinental tendencies also result in warm summers for much of the republic.

The soil contains large reserves of oil, gas, coal, diamonds, gold, silver, tin, tungsten and many others. Sakha produces 99% of all Russian diamonds and over 25% of the diamonds mined in the world. Uranium ore is beginning to be mined.

The republic fosters close cultural, political, economic, and industrial relations with the independent Turkic states through membership in organizations such as the Turkic Council and the Joint Administration of Turkic Arts and Culture.

The sentiment might be there, but it would need some major disruption for such an entity to gain independence.

The neighboring Krasnoyarsk Krai (2,339,700 square kilometers (903,400 sq mi), roughly 13% of the Russian Federation's total area and containing a population of 2,828,187, or just under 2%) is predominantly ethnic Russian and is just a gubernatorial district.

Those lands are as empty as habitable lands might be.