Romney 52.5% - Obama 47.5%

[eyer]

...so projects political scientist Douglas Hobbs, using his bread and peace economic forecasting model.

BTW: the author of the piece notes:

Reading Hibb’s entire paper, I get the sense he is not thrilled with what his model is telling him. He even mentions that he’s a big fan of betting markets, and they show an Obama win. But the model says what it says — even he kind of gently suggests Romney is another stiff, just like Dole and Gore.

http://www.aei-ideas.org/2012/08/ec...l-predicts-obama-will-lose-in-near-landslide/

 

[busybody..]

Intrade has

the Black guy at 58 and the American Dream at 38

 

[miles]

I wouldn't bet a dollar on Romney winning the race.