Romney 51% - Obama 48%

[ChinaBandit]

Obama will not get above 48%.

Take it to the bank.

Since I said I'd leave the forum (when I thought for sure Obama was going to win) if Romney wins my chance to gloat next week is shot.

 

[LiFeNdEaTh]

i hope ROMNEY doesn't win

 

[garbage can]

Hang in there CB..........

 

[Sean]

Are you going to start a thread about every fucking poll that comes out?

 

[LiFeNdEaTh]

Are you going to start a thread about every fucking poll that comes out?

lol be nice..

 

[RobDownSouth]

Are you going to start a thread about every fucking poll that comes out?

He's trying to create Mittmentum. If my guy was as far behind as his guy is, I'd prolly do the same thing.

 

[Cade Is Here]

The racist lefty and all of his alts are going to go on a pissy fit.

 

[Wrong Element]

Are you going to start a thread about every fucking poll that comes out?

It looks like it's a prediction this time, not a poll.

Where are these characters getting their info from? In the reality-based world, Obama has a clear lead in enough states to go over 270, and is competitive in 3 or 4 more states that he doesn't even really need. I'm reading through the Wingnut Gazette this morning, and there it's still October 4 and Mitt is a sure thing.

I really am worried about some of them come next Wednesday.

 

[CNYCarol]

I'm expecting more like 70 - 30.

I find it hard to believe that many drank the Kool-Aide and want even more.

 

[IrezumiKiss]

I'm expecting more like 70 - 30.

I find it hard to believe that many drank the Kool-Aide and want even more.

Yeah, but unfortunately Mitt knows how to flavor his special Lie-Green Kool-Aid with enough sugar so that those many will keep coming back for more, despite knowing damn well it's crap drinking.

 

[Cade Is Here]

It looks like it's a prediction this time, not a poll.

Where are these characters getting their info from? In the reality-based world, Obama has a clear lead in enough states to go over 270, and is competitive in 3 or 4 more states that he doesn't even really need. I'm reading through the Wingnut Gazette this morning, and there it's still October 4 and Mitt is a sure thing.

I really am worried about some of them come next Wednesday.

LAUGH

I have seanh on ignore like most of the forum but what you quoted from him looks like he is crying and whining because his beloved obama is losing.

Too bad some of these racist lefties don't say that they will leave the board if obama loses.

 

[ChinaBandit]

Yeah, but unfortunately Mitt knows how to flavor his special Lie-Green Kool-Aid with enough sugar so that those many will keep coming back for more, despite knowing damn well it's crap drinking.

What are you people drinking is the question.

The only poll of early voters (Gallup's) has Romney winning significantly. Do you think that it's going to flip-flop on election day itself? Not likely.

All the polls showing Obama leading are based on Democrat+ weighted numbers from 2008 that are not going to be there in 2012. Hell, it's trending to have a turn-out lower than 2004.

The point is, the election is already happening and Romney is winning. Unless you believe early Obama voters tell pollsters they voted for Romney.

 

[Cade Is Here]

What are you people drinking is the question.

The only poll of early voters (Gallup's) has Romney winning significantly. Do you think that it's going to flip-flop on election day itself? Not likely.

All the polls showing Obama leading are based on Democrat+ weighted numbers from 2008 that are not going to be there in 2012. Hell, it's trending to have a turn-out lower than 2004.

You know that IZ is very mentally ill.

 

[Adre]

What are you people drinking is the question.

The only poll of early voters (Gallup's) has Romney winning significantly. Do you think that it's going to flip-flop on election day itself? Not likely.

All the polls showing Obama leading are based on Democrat+ weighted numbers from 2008 that are not going to be there in 2012. Hell, it's trending to have a turn-out lower than 2004.

The point is, the election is already happening and Romney is winning. Unless you believe early Obama voters tell pollsters they voted for Romney.

Sounds like you read Rove in the Journal this morning, an unbiased view if ever there was one

 

[ChinaBandit]

Sounds like you read Rove in the Journal this morning, an unbiased view if ever there was one

Gallup had Romney winning 52% of the early vote on RCP.

Yes. Rove commented on it.

I know there are many who believe Gallup is fucked.

However, I repeat Gallup has never (that is never) been wrong with a candidate at 50%. They've been at a lot longer than the others too.

 

[jeninflorida]

that can't be true, clearly obama has not been successful in destroying the middle class! We need 4 more obama years so that obama can build the welfare class!

 

[RjThoughts]

What ever momentum Romney gained it's ALL gone.

Ohio, goodbye. His LIES about Jeep and GM have cost him there!!!

 

[KingOrfeo]

Look at the sidebar.

 

[LiFeNdEaTh]

Look at the sidebar.

*CLICKS LINK*

 

[Wrong Element]

Gallup had Romney winning 52% of the early vote on RCP.

Yes. Rove commented on it.

I know there are many who believe Gallup is fucked.

However, I repeat Gallup has never (that is never) been wrong with a candidate at 50%. They've been at a lot longer than the others too.

You're giving Gallup way too much respect based on their brand name.

After Rob mentioned something about Gallup's track record, specifically those instances where they seem to be out of step with other polls, I looked up what Nate Silver had to say on the subject, and it was something of an eye-opener.

Bottom line is that there's no objective reason to give one poll (Gallup) more credence or even equal credence to multiple polls that are saying something different. I still think the discrepancy has to do with Gallup's likely voter screen, because what they're saying about all registered voters isn't too different from what everyone else is finding.

 

[CHNOPS]

The hysterical OP's numbers are based on last week's rolling average, since Gallup hasn't been conducting rolling polls since 10/28. It even says so on the very column he got the numbers from.

Lots of polls say lots of things. To the extent that they're meaningful at all, they're only meaningful in the aggregate.

Among the poll aggregators, RCP uses a relatively simple averaging algorithm, Nate Silver uses a more nuanced one. Neither takes the national polls too much into consideration at this point. All show Obama leading in the states that give him the most paths to 270+.

Anything can happen, of course. But the OMG GALLUP SAID THE WORLD IS GONNA END!!! approach is comic relief at best at this point.

 

[CHNOPS]

I guess I could have just said "I agree with Wrong Element" and left it at that.

 

[phrodeau]

So after months of polls showing a clear lead for Obama, one poll showing Romney ahead is what we should latch onto as the most prophetic?

 

[KingOrfeo]

What ever momentum Romney gained it's ALL gone.

Ohio, goodbye. His LIES about Jeep and GM have cost him there!!!

And then there's the hurricane -- Obama did his job vigorously and acted presidential, and Romney embarrassed himself with a fake drive for canned goods and stuff, which the Red Cross does not need (they need cash; in-kind gifts are too much trouble to handle and process).

 

[IrezumiKiss]

What are you people drinking is the question.

The only poll of early voters (Gallup's) has Romney winning significantly. Do you think that it's going to flip-flop on election day itself? Not likely.

All the polls showing Obama leading are based on Democrat+ weighted numbers from 2008 that are not going to be there in 2012. Hell, it's trending to have a turn-out lower than 2004.

The point is, the election is already happening and Romney is winning. Unless you believe early Obama voters tell pollsters they voted for Romney.

Oh, I know what I'm drinking. But by the sounds of the delusions in the quote above, I'ma have to tell the bartender to cut you off on those full tumblers of moutai you're knocking back cuz you're not on the same Earth the rest of us are!