Prediction: Trump will win a second term.

[surdeep]

Rationale:

1. Low Voter Turnout Favors the Incumbent : this is a standard rule in any election; assuming covid remains active in November along with voter suppression and efforts to block/discredit voting by mail, a low voter turnout favors trump.

2. Media Spending Favors Trump : just as Obama was better tham McCain or Kerry at social media in his campaigns and Trump was and is better online than Clinton and Biden, Trump has the edge. Plus, trump has the advantage of more paid and unpaid face time on television over Biden, along with (they say) more help online from Russia, China and North Korean troll farms.

3. In Person Campaigning Favors Trump : I don't see Biden hitting the road anytime soon. Trump is often in several cities per week. Biden is less accessible than Clinton was in pressing the flesh.

4. Running Mate Favors Trump: Pence is a good little soldier. If Biden picks a female or black female running mate, Republican swing voters are more likely to stay with Trump because racism and gender, especially given the perception that Biden is more likely to croak in office than Trump.


Disclosure:
I am neither a registered Republican nor Democrat.
I think Trump is a piss-poor President.

 

[islandman]

Your analysis suggests that Vice President Pence will be sworn in as President come January.

 

[phrodeau]

I predict that Trump and Pence will both end up in coronavirus comas, leaving Pelosi in charge until January.

 

[Adre]

It’s reported that the Trump campaign has already thrown in the towel in Michigan. Two more swing states to go and your prediction becomes 100% wrong. Pennsylvania will be next.

 

[surdeep]

It’s reported that the Trump campaign has already thrown in the towel in Michigan. Two more swing states to go and your prediction becomes 100% wrong. Pennsylvania will be next.

I would be very pleased to be 100% wrong on this one.

 

[SpeareChucker]

It's already started,




Does it not smell like 2016?

I remember thinking that there was no way he could even win the nomination...





I think that what galls most people is that he reflects us
and we all think that we are better than our reflection...

 

[jaF0]

I would be very pleased if It were to die in prison.

 

[FescueFan]

It’s reported that the Trump campaign has already thrown in the towel in Michigan. Two more swing states to go and your prediction becomes 100% wrong. Pennsylvania will be next.

Hopefully they aren't as anti-American as you and vote against (D)'s and their ethno-socialist agenda.

 

[FescueFan]

I would be very pleased if It were to die in prison.

I would be very pleased if you were air dropped into Pyongyang....to get some of that progress you love so much.

 

[phrodeau]

I would be very pleased if you were air dropped into Pyongyang....to get some of that progress you love so much.

Being air dropped into Pyongyang is on Trump’s bucket list.

 

[HisArpy]

I would be very pleased if you were air dropped into Pyongyang....to get some of that progress you love so much.

Now now, be nice. You can at least give jaFO a parachute before you remotely pop the canopy of the U2.

 

[jaF0]

Being air dropped into Pyongyang is on Trump’s bucket list.

I'd be OK with air dropping It into a bucket.

 

[surdeep]

It's already started,




Does it not smell like 2016?

I remember thinking that there was no way he could even win the nomination...





I think that what galls most people is that he reflects us
and we all think that we are better than our reflection...

These are all good points, especially since all the major projections are currently predicting a big Biden victory.

 

[Trumpedo]

Rationale:

1. Low Voter Turnout Favors the Incumbent : this is a standard rule in any election; assuming covid remains active in November along with voter suppression and efforts to block/discredit voting by mail, a low voter turnout favors trump.

2. Media Spending Favors Trump : just as Obama was better tham McCain or Kerry at social media in his campaigns and Trump was and is better online than Clinton and Biden, Trump has the edge. Plus, trump has the advantage of more paid and unpaid face time on television over Biden, along with (they say) more help online from Russia, China and North Korean troll farms.

3. In Person Campaigning Favors Trump : I don't see Biden hitting the road anytime soon. Trump is often in several cities per week. Biden is less accessible than Clinton was in pressing the flesh.

4. Running Mate Favors Trump: Pence is a good little soldier. If Biden picks a female or black female running mate, Republican swing voters are more likely to stay with Trump because racism and gender, especially given the perception that Biden is more likely to croak in office than Trump.


Disclosure:
I am neither a registered Republican nor Democrat.
I think Trump is a piss-poor President.

I hope you're wrong.

 

[Trumpedo]

It's already started,




Does it not smell like 2016?

I remember thinking that there was no way he could even win the nomination...





I think that what galls most people is that he reflects us
and we all think that we are better than our reflection...

"Reflects us"?

So you're admitting you're a moron?

 

[LLCox]

I predict trump will receive the smallest amount of Electoral votes in the history of elections.

 

[jaF0]

A compete rout would be nice, but I don't expect it.

 

[Ziggins]

The win was obvious a long way back. What's left is calling the spread.

 

[phrodeau]

Trump knows voting.
https://youtu.be/QOcQEcwFkX0

 

[Adre]

It’s reported that the Trump campaign has already thrown in the towel in Michigan. Two more swing states to go and your prediction becomes 100% wrong. Pennsylvania will be next.

Now up 9% points there.

Wisconsin next?

 

[surdeep]

I hope you're wrong.

A majority of Americans feel the same way, but it's not that simple, as you know.

 

[Rightguide]

It’s reported that the Trump campaign has already thrown in the towel in Michigan. Two more swing states to go and your prediction becomes 100% wrong. Pennsylvania will be next.

Wishful thinking at its best.

 

[Adre]

Wishful thinking at its best.

Yeah right, meanwhile you’re guy is becoming more unglued and increasingly paranoid by the minute. Postponing elections!?! Good luck with that, Benito.

 

[Adre]

They’re not afraid to oppose him anymore. (And we know why.)


“He (Trump) can suggest whatever he wants,” Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), the chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, told reporters. “The law is what it is. We’re going to have an election that’s legitimate, it’s going to be credible, it’s going to be the same as we’ve always done it.”

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) also said he opposes delaying the election. “No way should we ever not hold an election on the day that we have it,” McCarthy told reporters.

 

[FescueFan]

Yeah right, meanwhile you’re guy is becoming more unglued and increasingly paranoid by the minute. Postponing elections!?! Good luck with that, Benito.

LOL....Trump has them triggered of course it worked.